Bleeding Bills Blue

Ehhh i think Spiller is a bust. Injury prone, had 1 good season, and washed out quickly. Ryan Mathews got the injury-prone tag, was drafted after, and had a much more productive career.

The McCargo pick wasn't like a luxury. It was straight up dumb - we took whitner over ngata - then moved up for this guy. That we somehow stumbled into Kyle Williams in the 5th is stunning. I also remember that year thinking - i'd be fine with cutler. JP doesn't have "it".

I think hes better than a lot of QBs, especially if you build an O around him

Gore's a tough sell. He was the best player on a ton of bad niners teams. He was a good not great player, and played pretty well for them in their brief little run under Harbaugh. He'll get HOF just because i think people respect the like... 5000 yards after age 30.

I think with covid-19 and the inability to get him in with your doctors, his unique fit (he is not a fit for all offenses), and only recent full availability hindered his ability to find a team. With the draft coming up you'll see how teams address the position like NE, LAC, Miami, Jax, Wash.

Yeah - there's always a blueprint to stopping an offense. The execution of that blueprint separates good teams from bad ones. Disguising rushers, and bringing pressure in unique ways will tank the rams offense. Teams also had a lot less to worry about with Gurley, so the play action game wasn't as effective. The Ravens are stopped by good secondaries and good front 4's. If you're disciplined in your rush lanes, and disciplined in your gap integrity - you force him to step up and make the throws. If they can't run the ball, they'll struggle since its largely a vertical passing attack. You just have to keep at it even in the 3rd and longs because if he breaks contain he can make it happen.

He was on year 3 of a 3 year deal - he was a definite cut candidate. 16 mil cap hit with 9mil in space created if they cut him. I think they'll draft someone this year though so they have a bit more insurance when they let him walk next year. That'd give them Hill, Hardman, Draft pick to go with Kelce. I'm sure they would like a RB as well, but i think they'll roll committee because its cheap and they'd probably be better suited building up the offensive line. Not sure what they do with Chris Jones either, between him and clark you have like 35 million tied up in Defensive Ends - while also having like no corners.

Your thoughts on tannehill match my thoughts on goff. The team was assembled during his rookie contract. He was never the engine that made this offense go - 3 deep at WR, a solid (overpaid) TE, and a top 5 RB. Now the RB is gone, they're trying to move one of the WRs to try and create space to keep Kupp. The once strong offensive line is no longer a strength. Wade got the ax again, so we'll see what the new coordinator does. Depth is an issue when you move so many picks, and have so many high dollar contracts. They'll eventually have the highest paid corner and highest paid DT, a high paid QB etc. I think moving on from Gurley helps... that was a terrible deal. But being unwilling to move on BEFORE you make the mistake is a big problem to me. Goff could be on his 5th year option right now.. maybe he holds out etc. But they could just as easily make a run at Cam, or Dalton etc.

I don't think its wrong to pay a wilson top dollar, or mahomes when his contract comes up. Rodgers, Brees, etc. It's the other guys making top dollar where its a concern. Why is Cousins making so much money? Goff? Carr? Tannehill?! He was so valuable that he threw for under 100 yards in their first 2 playoff games. And you're going to pay him more than Newton and Brady get on the open market?

I think the Bengals are one too. They had a bottom tier offense and defense a year ago. They'll have a new QB and hopefully everyone doesnt get hurt again, but their defense still stinks and their offense will now have a rookie QB. There's a decent chance they're right there at #1 next year and in line to move the pick for the best offer.

I know they lost a few players on defense - but it was one of if not the best defenses in the NFL last year. Brady and the offense weren't really a well-oiled machine, and a lot of that had to do with injuries on the offensive line. Well assuming Wynn and Andrews can stay fully healthy, they actually have a top unit there. They have good running backs. Assuming Harry develops some, they have some talent outside on offense. And they still have 4 of the first 100 picks in the draft. Plenty of chances to grab another QB to compete with the group they have, add some secondary depth, probably a LB. Honestly, with 7 teams making it? I think they are in. Especially if they do well with the draft (12 picks means they probably move around a bit to get players that they want).

I like Mckenzie - he was basically WR3 last year regarding snap counts. So while his snaps likely get lost to diggs - his gadget style plays always have a role and he's effective in that role.

Regarding the chart - is this looking at total yards in relation to what they would've had as a replacement level? Wouldn't this tend to lead itself to favor players who had more touches? Regarding the pick, I'm open to it if its a highly talented player that slips. If its like we're drafting a back because we need one and panicked at 54, I'm not a fan.

Yet it sort of worked in one way or another for NE for like 20 years. Their Oline struggles hindered it in 2019 - but previous years Michel, White, Burkhead Gillislee lewis white Blount lewis white Back in the day with Faulk and Sammy Morris. Danny Woodhead. Vereen, Ridley, Gray... Definitely a pattern there of matchup running backs and receiving backs.

We also traded a pick in 2021 - so i would think picks for that draft are off limits now.

That 03 team did not have the luxury of drafting a player who wouldn't play a down in 03. A really solid unit of defenders, and an offense that consisted of Henry and Moulds. Check out this box score: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200309210mia.htm

I'm a football addict. Give me more.

Evans is 3rd all time in catches and yards - maybe stevie over him i guess? Cowart over Talley is strange. Gimme Fred Jackson over McGahee.

More football? 6 game weekend of playoff games...? YES PLEASE!

Yeah in a condensed goal line situation sure, but when you have the end zone the field gets shorter in general and you see more condensed zone stuff. Giving Singletary space to operate he may only have to beat one guy, and hes pretty good at beating one guy. I also hate rushing directly into a heavy defense. Gimme mckenzie in motion and zone read with allen and singletary. Make the LBs and Safeties think.

Not going to be easy - gotta win at least 4 in the East. None of them are particular cupcake games - although i do think gase stinks as a coach. 3 home games of LA, LA and Seattle traveling cross country. They need to win 2 of those. And 3 of Pitt, Arizona, Denver, LV, Tenn. I like the idea of our fans traveling well to Vegas the most of our away games. 4 away games in zona, vegas, denver, SF - brutal slate. That would get them to 9 - with assumed losses to SF and KC. I don't think its particularly far-fetched to get to 9. If Allen progresses and improves - my prediction would be 10 wins. 4 wins in division - Home wins over LAC, LAR, Pitt. Away wins over Denver, LV, Tennessee. Assuming its even a full season.

Crazy that less than 2 years ago - they just outright dumped KB and Holmes midseason and just played foster and mckenzie. And since then we now have 3 WRs starting ahead of them both, and the leading receiver Jones is gone too. Just massive upgrades at WR in 2 offseasons.

Basically anyone with a medical concern coming in or out of the combine is a huge question. Not getting to host workouts isn't great either. That's where you get some significant time to get to know a player, see what they do on a whiteboard, watch film, in addition to your doctor's checking them out. I feel like that helps move players up or down your board a bit.

I'm sure players will get drafted there, and I'm sure most will be good. It's a position with a very low bust potential. However I think the difference between a "superstar" running back and a good one is a small margin. The best rushing attack in the NFL (that didn't have lamar jackson) had Mostert, Breida, and Tevin Coleman. You don't need a superstar to have an effective rushing attack - you can do it by improving the offensive line and going 3-4 deep at the position. I thought Singletarys quick feet would benefit the offense in the red zone, but they ended up utilizing Allen considerably more in that area. I wonder if that changes in 2020.

Mock drafts create this consensus that they are right, and that the player values are the same for them as other teams. They aren't. There are guys projected in rounds 4 and 5 that will go undrafted. Adding on the fact that pro-days and meetings are basically cancelled? This is going to be a cluster of a draft IMO. Over 100 touches - a good RB might rush for 4.5 YPC, and a bad one 3.5. That's 100 yards over 100 touches. A good punter over the course of a season might punt say 50 times and the league leader in net avg was 44.5, ours was 38.2. That's a difference of 315 yards over the course of 50 "touches". Obviously this is a vast oversimplification of value - RBs have value in the passing game/pass protection, punters can be evaluated on other factors like Fair Catches and IN20 vs. TB% etc.