Bleeding Bills Blue

I think the Bengals are one too. They had a bottom tier offense and defense a year ago. They'll have a new QB and hopefully everyone doesnt get hurt again, but their defense still stinks and their offense will now have a rookie QB. There's a decent chance they're right there at #1 next year and in line to move the pick for the best offer.

I know they lost a few players on defense - but it was one of if not the best defenses in the NFL last year. Brady and the offense weren't really a well-oiled machine, and a lot of that had to do with injuries on the offensive line. Well assuming Wynn and Andrews can stay fully healthy, they actually have a top unit there. They have good running backs. Assuming Harry develops some, they have some talent outside on offense. And they still have 4 of the first 100 picks in the draft. Plenty of chances to grab another QB to compete with the group they have, add some secondary depth, probably a LB. Honestly, with 7 teams making it? I think they are in. Especially if they do well with the draft (12 picks means they probably move around a bit to get players that they want).

I like Mckenzie - he was basically WR3 last year regarding snap counts. So while his snaps likely get lost to diggs - his gadget style plays always have a role and he's effective in that role.

Regarding the chart - is this looking at total yards in relation to what they would've had as a replacement level? Wouldn't this tend to lead itself to favor players who had more touches? Regarding the pick, I'm open to it if its a highly talented player that slips. If its like we're drafting a back because we need one and panicked at 54, I'm not a fan.

Yet it sort of worked in one way or another for NE for like 20 years. Their Oline struggles hindered it in 2019 - but previous years Michel, White, Burkhead Gillislee lewis white Blount lewis white Back in the day with Faulk and Sammy Morris. Danny Woodhead. Vereen, Ridley, Gray... Definitely a pattern there of matchup running backs and receiving backs.

We also traded a pick in 2021 - so i would think picks for that draft are off limits now.

That 03 team did not have the luxury of drafting a player who wouldn't play a down in 03. A really solid unit of defenders, and an offense that consisted of Henry and Moulds. Check out this box score: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200309210mia.htm

I'm a football addict. Give me more.

Evans is 3rd all time in catches and yards - maybe stevie over him i guess? Cowart over Talley is strange. Gimme Fred Jackson over McGahee.

More football? 6 game weekend of playoff games...? YES PLEASE!

Yeah in a condensed goal line situation sure, but when you have the end zone the field gets shorter in general and you see more condensed zone stuff. Giving Singletary space to operate he may only have to beat one guy, and hes pretty good at beating one guy. I also hate rushing directly into a heavy defense. Gimme mckenzie in motion and zone read with allen and singletary. Make the LBs and Safeties think.

Not going to be easy - gotta win at least 4 in the East. None of them are particular cupcake games - although i do think gase stinks as a coach. 3 home games of LA, LA and Seattle traveling cross country. They need to win 2 of those. And 3 of Pitt, Arizona, Denver, LV, Tenn. I like the idea of our fans traveling well to Vegas the most of our away games. 4 away games in zona, vegas, denver, SF - brutal slate. That would get them to 9 - with assumed losses to SF and KC. I don't think its particularly far-fetched to get to 9. If Allen progresses and improves - my prediction would be 10 wins. 4 wins in division - Home wins over LAC, LAR, Pitt. Away wins over Denver, LV, Tennessee. Assuming its even a full season.

Crazy that less than 2 years ago - they just outright dumped KB and Holmes midseason and just played foster and mckenzie. And since then we now have 3 WRs starting ahead of them both, and the leading receiver Jones is gone too. Just massive upgrades at WR in 2 offseasons.

Basically anyone with a medical concern coming in or out of the combine is a huge question. Not getting to host workouts isn't great either. That's where you get some significant time to get to know a player, see what they do on a whiteboard, watch film, in addition to your doctor's checking them out. I feel like that helps move players up or down your board a bit.

I'm sure players will get drafted there, and I'm sure most will be good. It's a position with a very low bust potential. However I think the difference between a "superstar" running back and a good one is a small margin. The best rushing attack in the NFL (that didn't have lamar jackson) had Mostert, Breida, and Tevin Coleman. You don't need a superstar to have an effective rushing attack - you can do it by improving the offensive line and going 3-4 deep at the position. I thought Singletarys quick feet would benefit the offense in the red zone, but they ended up utilizing Allen considerably more in that area. I wonder if that changes in 2020.

Mock drafts create this consensus that they are right, and that the player values are the same for them as other teams. They aren't. There are guys projected in rounds 4 and 5 that will go undrafted. Adding on the fact that pro-days and meetings are basically cancelled? This is going to be a cluster of a draft IMO. Over 100 touches - a good RB might rush for 4.5 YPC, and a bad one 3.5. That's 100 yards over 100 touches. A good punter over the course of a season might punt say 50 times and the league leader in net avg was 44.5, ours was 38.2. That's a difference of 315 yards over the course of 50 "touches". Obviously this is a vast oversimplification of value - RBs have value in the passing game/pass protection, punters can be evaluated on other factors like Fair Catches and IN20 vs. TB% etc.

If you think that in year 2 or 3 they an be a featured player in the offense and become a weapon, i'm all for it.

Its a deep WR draft, and the talent available in round 2 of this draft could be comparable to round 1 of other years. Rookie WR's tend not to contribute much anyway, and our depth chart would keep less pressure on him to contribute right away. It's a bold style move - completely avoiding the need piece and just looking at finding talent. Yeah - he wont get the big splash plays, but his ability to turn 2-4 yards into 10-20 yards is legit.

I'm not advocating reaching by any means - i hate that. If a 1st round rated player is on the board at 54 pick them 100 times out of 100. I'm all for adding talent - if they push out someone else? So be it. I'm hoping one of the WRs slips - higgins or shenault or something. That'd be neat for the offense. Higgins has more upside than a duke williams, and shenault could be a useful gadget player while he earns playing time.

I know its a 1A/1B style running back league... but we just drafted a guy last year at 74 who looks like a stud. Now we're using more draft capital than last year at the same de-valued position?

He's limited for sure - I'm not sure how you build an offense around him. Its basically a lamar jackson style offense, with a less dynamic runner and a less confident passer. He probably has a better arm than LJ but he's unwilling to unload the RPOs so that part of the game isn't going to be as effective.

But he sure does love getting sacked ?

Watkins played well in the playoffs for the Chiefs last year... but his regular season numbers are pretty rough for a guy drafted where he was, and getting paid like he is on contract 2. Woods has back to back 1000 yard seasons and has basically made brandin cooks expendable (goff might have made cooks expendable). Goodwins going to be 30 and has had 1 good season... i think it was more likely that was a fluke, than that buffalo underutilized him.

I would - Allen is better than Brown. He's a big dude, makes his money in the middle of the field and gets open a ton. He has a higher catch rate. He's 2 years younger.

Some back alley deal to do the trade with detroit... i could see it.