Bleeding Bills Blue

I'd find it difficult to spin. Anything downfield in the first 3 quarters and he was missing by a mile.

QB - 5 years of lawrence cheap - or 2 years of Darnold. If he fixes things he commands a ton of money, which forces you to dismantle what you're building. They lost a ton on their defense. But kubiak offenses can still make it happen with that zone rushing and PA. I think they can win a few games. Anyone should. He's a polished prospect, and fits in like any modern offense. Athletic, makes all the throws, a gamer in big situations.

Yeah - Moss has been thinking too much. Just do what got you here and play football. He has 6 fumbles in over 600 touches. Singletary has 4 in 200 touches, and i don't even want to get into Allens fumbling. This narrative is a bit played out.

There's not enough talent there. The defense is missing some key pieces - LB and CB. They don't have the ability to stop teams in man coverage, and they're not generating enough pressure to make anything happen in zone. On offense, the offensive line is probably better than they've played - but Bell looks done, Gore IS done, and they have like no one at WR. I assume Mims will get some touches simply because they don't have anyone else.

But allen threw for 400 yards against "just miami" so it is meaningless.

My original goal was to go to a home playoff game

Every time he does it he doesn't set his feet when rolling left.

Josh does not need to worry. If he's not the highest paid QB in the NFL he'll still be incredibly wealthy. Unless he wins an MVP he's not setting the market at the position. With a good season this year i would think the extension would look like, maybe 30-35? Tannehills AAV was 29.5 in 2019, so in 2020 you'd look at something in that range I feel.

You pay him his regular deal in 2020, then pick up the 5th year option. Then add 5 years of an extension from 2022-2026. Lowers the AAV when you consider it over 7 years. He gets his up front money and you spread signing bonus over those 4-5 years. You also guarantee a couple years of base salary to get the practical guarantees higher.

2016 is a rough year to evaluate though: Watkins missed half the year and was hurt when he played. Woods was banged up all year. the new guy harvin was hurt by week 2. Salas was supposed to contribute out of the slot and he played like 2 games. Too much Walt powell, Justin Hunter, and Goodwin.

Still odd that we fired roman (now considered a good offensive coordinator) in Tyrod's second season starting. That's probably the best offense he could even be in. In year 2, injuries totally killed the passing offense. However there were 3 really winnable games in 2016 (MIAx2 and seattle) that if the defense performed even a little bit better the team probably wins. Same goes for 2015 - i think they win against cincy/jax if they have tyrod not EJ. He was a terrible fit under dennison (as was the offensive line), and his stats reflected that. At the end of the day - when plays needed to be made in the 4th quarter, he typically wasn't delivering. You need that from your QB. So he's in that fitzpatrick level to me. Fitz's highs are much higher, but his lows are turnover frenzies which absolutely kill your chances of staying in a game. Tyrod is more of a safety net kinda QB. Probably an ideal backup at this point. Teaches a young QB to work hard, pushes him for his job, and if he plays in a pinch, he doesn't kill you with turnovers.

He hasn't been surrounded by talent. But I haven't seen him elevate others either. Gase may be a QB killer too. The offense is so vanilla and horizontal. They no longer have a deep threat, and the oline is still not good. If I'm the Jets though? Tank for Trevor - and trade Darnold if you're successful.

Right - i think there are variables in every sport. Being good at hitting righties is a good baseline, or being good at hitting first pitch fastballs etc. But when its coming from someone like scherzer thats a new variable. Same with hockey - a good corsi means you shoot more than you have shots against you. But that doesn't take into account if you're playing d-zone starts against the other teams top line. You should have a lower corsi when you play the mcdavid line, half the time you're not even really trying to score. I think it'll be a challenge because of donald. The WRs are varied enough that you could attack with brown and bease if ramsey does a good job shadowing diggs. I'm much more concerned about kupp and higbee.

Yep - I'm gonna roll with my Brett Favre/Steve Mcnair hybrid comparison

I watched like 1 wyoming game that year. He threw a few absolute lasers on hitches and out routes. NFL throws that he made look easy. The touch issues were definitely there from what i saw though, he never really learned to throw a deep ball without throwing it on a rope. Trajectory is huge in the NFL, it allows you to create space and windows that you can't see. He seems to be learning the value of that.

Yeah - Taron hasn't been very impressive so far this year either. He's there to tackle well on the underneath guys and they seem to be constantly leaking out for first downs.

It's tough. The comparisons in the last 20 years of drafted prospects are guys like Bortles, Kaepernick, Locker and gabbert. Maybe to a lesser extent Cutler or Stafford - big arms and lower completion percentages in college. His numbers from an accuracy perspective were worse than all of them - so naturally from a statistical mindset you're looking at a QB who has to massively improve just to hit the minimum baseline, and there aren't really a ton of examples of that happening. I think examples you can look at if you go back further (look at it a bit more like 5% improvement in 1995 is more significant than 5% today), might be Mcnair or Favre from an arm talent perspective. They were inaccurate in college (sub 60%) and showed improvement at the NFL level. I think you would've liked to see something more like Mcnairs 4th year (like 6000 yards and 50+ TDs) at Wyoming - but the talent surrounding him was not very good, and consider Mcnair was playing in D1-AA. Looking at Favre's college numbers, nothing there indicates a player who would at some point complete 68% of his passes in a year, or lead the NFL in TDs. I don't think FO is trying to find the next Favre when they look at these types of analysis. The trend indicates you are getting a player like the 4 above - and that trend would indicate failure. But in all honestly - Allen reminds me a bit of Favre/Mcnair with how he plays. There's the reckless confidence of a favre, buying time and scrambling like mcnair, rocket arms.

I'm curious to see if its a difference in playcalling, execution, or defensive adjustments

Yes. FO would look at it contextual to the down and distance, not try and decipher the coverages etc.

I don't like hate what they do for WRs and CBs. Taking into account winning and losing routes where the ball isn't thrown can show you some interesting things. But at the end of the day... If you're in cover 3... you play behind the WR as you have no safety help. You will probably give up some underneath stuff unless you have really good eye discipline and closing speed. And cover 3 can look like man, just like cover 4 can look like man. and cover 6 can look like man. just because you are in a zone doesn't mean you aren't like... covering someone. this isn't madden, you don't just fade into a space of grass.

It was a 45 yarder, but with net not particularly good.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-how-pff-grades-quarterback-play They try to factor drops in - but the "difficulty and timing of the throw" piece is garbage. They basically don't count screens... which is stupid. We've run enough bad screens to know that there is something that makes them successful beyond it being an easy throw. They don't include how a good hard count can slow a pass rush. They don't factor how an audible or line adjustment can scheme a guy wide open. It's an easy throw so its worth less to them - despite good quarterbacking being the reason you had the time, or understanding of the defense. They try to value a QBs ability to buy time, but holding the ball is negative... despite no one being open... or a offensive lineman performing the assignment incorrectly. It's insanely subjective in the context of a football game. The QB is a leader of the unit, but a function of the offensive unit. There is so much context given to every play, primary reads to secondary reads, pre-snap to post snap adjustments. I actually appreciate what FO does though - it just contextualizes the stats. Not trying to re-invent the wheel.

Agree - Bojo was fine. 2 within the 20, 1 FC and 1 out of bounds. 1 was shorter, but that was before half so i think that was a high shorty to limit the potential of a return. One was a bit longer and had a bit of a return. There wasnt anything that was like, noticeably bad.

He has little subtle footwork that he uses too. The one caused an incompletion early where it looked like an overthrow, but the 2nd one i noticed was that deep ball where he created a ton of separation down the field. He also has insanely good hands.

Better pass pro, better playmaking in the passing game.