Bleeding Bills Blue

I'm not an apologist for moss or singletary or even the blocking schemes. Blocking execution was poor last year. The majority of Moss carries came in the first half of the year. I think he had a fairly major fumble as well. Breida got some playing time and was shown to be incapable as a blocker and also had ball security issues. Buffalo backs both ranked near the bottom (or the absolute bottom in Moss case) in yards before contact. There are over 1500 snaps with boettger ford and feliciano on the field, and all 3 were absolutely awful. Williams was much better at guard than tackle, but all 4 of them were absolute disasters at zone run blocking. There is no "vision" or "cutback" when the right guard just lets the backside pursuit hit them behind the LOS.

Singletary has a few gripes - Drops and fumbles are the big 2. His YPC is always propped up on his ability to pull in some extra yards with shifty feet. He seemed to become a more positive player as a pass catcher as the year went on. I'm just putting numbers up regarding moss as a runner and pass-catcher simply because I think too often we hit a recency bias and don't acknowledge the entire season. It was a trend all year for most of the backs.

So I looked at these numbers - i took out corners and safeties because its not a fair comparison. I took out small sample sizes of players who started fewer than 8 games. That gives you a baseline of 63 linebackers (a couple are hybrids). He's not among the top, nor bottom. He only had 59 targets for one, which is like 25th - so a few more incompletions and that number goes way down. The numbers to me show that 75% isn't really that bad - 48 of the 63 players had numbers higher than 70. Seems to come with the territory that playing MLB in the current era will give you a tough number there. Bobby Wagner, Denzel Perryman, and Devin White were pro bowlers and all had higher comp% allowed, gave up more yards, and were both targeted more than Edmunds. Good news! Matt Milanos 55.2% comp percentage allowed was the best in the NFL among linebackers. Bad news, his 11.3% missed tackle percentage was the 16th highest in the NFL.

DS 50 targets, 40 catches (80% catch rate) for 228 yards or 5.7 yards per reception (4.56 yards per target) and 11 first downs. DS had an average depth of target of 0.2 with 6 Yards after catch per reception. Singletary had 5 drops and a 10% drop percentage. Singletary broke 4 tackles and had a 10% rate of broken tackles per reception. Moss 32 targets, 23 catches (71.9% catch rate) for 197 yards or 8.6 yards per recpetion (6.16 yards per target) and 12 first downs. Moss had an average depth of target of 0.8 with 8.7 yards after catch per reception. Moss had 3 drops and a 9.4% drop percentage. Moss broke 3 tackles and had an 11.5 percent rate of broken tackles per reception.

Regarding the bolded - they made a concerted effort to fix it. They ran the ball more from under center (and just more in general), and they utilized more pin & pull concepts to better utilize morse and brown's athleticism. Running the ball against Carolina, Atlanta, and the Jets shouldn't be a huge challenge. They're all trash defenses. Singletary had a Yards before contact of 2.3 on the year, moss had 1.5 (10 games actually where his YBC was under 1.5). 1.5 yards before contact was 3rd to last in the NFL with Salvon Ahmed and Tony Jones as the only players with lower. Yards after contact were 2.3 for DS and 2.1 for moss. There are 44 players with 50 or more carries who had a lower yards after contact including Zeke Elliot, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, and Dalvin Cook. Moss broke 14 tackles vs 13 for DS. Of Moss' 345 yards rushing, 202 came after contact. 14 Broken tackles was good for a tie for 19th in the NFL. His attempts per broken tackle was 6.9 attempts per broken tackle - which was 3rd in the NFL behind Javonte Williams and Chris Carson.

The biggest plays he makes are when they don't throw to the middle of the field because of the 6'5 guy covering their TE etc. That double clutch causes a sack or a pressure, or forces a throw into coverage, or just generally an incompletion. It doesn't pop - but the team has basically the #1 3rd down defense since he joined the org - on a majority cover 2/3/4 zone team. That's a lot of grass for a dude to cover. Most teams have spent what they planned to spend pre-draft. After the draft you re-assess and thats when remaining free agents will get looks.

I'd be alright with the move and i don't even dislike edmunds that much. The 5th year option and extension etc. are just so expensive for a player that isn't a huge playmaker. He does his job more often than not, his length does show up more when you look outside of just plays where he's targeted, and hes a fine tackler for the most part. But i don't think I'd pay him to be near top5 at his position.

Yep - RB2 is usually someone on a rookie contract so... he needs to find a niche. They tried short yardage back but between him not having the juice and the offensive line being incapable of moving anyone up the middle, they tended to lean on allen outside the hashes in those situations. The one cut ability is there, he can catch, etc. I dunno what his issue was last year though - apprehensive and just slow. Speed can be learned, or at least some burst can be learned. Whether our line is capable of creating the necessary cutback lanes in zone is where I'm concerned. Losing feliciano and williams honestly helps, as both were just so bad as backside guards and tackles in zone.

It wasn't vision. The offensive line was absolute trash for much of last year.

I'm fine with a cb in the first - but not if its some... 2nd/3rd round talent we have to reach for. I think oline is a huge need though. Boettger stinks, ford really stinks, and bates has barely played LG let alone RG where he's now the starter. Brown played alright at times, but he gets penalties, and shouldn't just be plugged right in at RT without some competition. I don't even know who the swing tackle is behind them, doyle? Great.. Our backup Center very likely sucks - i've never seen him play but... i don't see why I'd count on him as anything other than roster fodder.

Who cares? We're trying to win a super bowl in 2022. 3 firsts and 2 2nds in a 4 year period - while also signing von miller? Who would we even cut? Oliver is on a rookie deal so costs the same to cut as keep - not that we would cut him Daquan jones would be a 10M dead cap hit vs 3.58 cap hit to keep him Jordan Phillips would be a 4.25M dead cap hit vs a 3.5 cap hit to keep him Settle would be a 5M dead cap hit vs 2.675 cap hit to keep him So you lose cap space whomever you get rid of... and you also acquire cap hit for davis. And I'm not sure he's better today, than any of them.

Our last 2 2nds and 1st round pick are all defensive linemen. Oliver in 2019. We signed Von Miller, Daquan Jones, Tim Settle, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson etc. Seems reckless - especially with a corner we aren't 100% will be available right away, and a 3rd year guy opposite him. We also have like 0 offensive line depth - and I'm not really certain outside of 3 of them that we even have a particularly strong top 5. Could probably use a WR. Edmunds is on a 5th year option.

Worst case scenario - the guy is plug and play early down run disruptor.

I doubt they do as well, and its mostly due to the losses on the defensive side of the ball. My playoff picks: Divisions- Buffalo KC Indy Baltimore Wildcard- Tennessee Chargers Browns Tennessee in because 4 games against trash afc opponents - and the NFC east. Chargers because their offense was already strong, and the defense added some strong pieces. Browns because assuming they didn't get so injured i think they were playoff bound last year. Denver i have missing because i don't trust the coach. Same with Vegas. Bengals went to the super bowl last year but i think baltimore healthy, and cleveland healthy (with new QB) are capable of surpassing them. Tried not to base this off of - what happened in the playoffs and offseason but more on the entire body of work.

I'd like to see a guard in the 2nd or 3rd round, and possibly a tackle as well. Our oline depth is super thin at the moment, and its a high injury position. Our #1 investment needs to be better protected behind it, and it was the #1 culprit in the run game struggles all year long. Our left guard is a 34 year old free agent signing, and our right guard has started like 6 career games (all at left guard). Dane Jackson has played (and started) more than Bates, and people want to run him off the roster.

got that 2nd place schedule - non common from buffalo they got arizona, vegas, indy - buffalo got Tennessee, KC, Rams.

The context of the player matters here. The number of ACL injuries is fairly static: https://www.nfl.com/playerhealthandsafety/health-and-wellness/injury-data/injury-data I think the part that matters is - if you were already a fringe player and you tear your ACL, you're probably done. Even if you come back exactly the same, you were already not an impact player. There's a lot more to being a football player than running and cutting.

If he never plays again, and others like him - it definitely throws off the averages.

I don't think its too much - windows open lets boogie. The only issue i have is the 3rd this year. Just a lot of depth holes and a 3rd can be a quality player somewhere lame like guard, or LB where we're pretty thin.

Dane Jackson played more snaps last year than Bates, yet bates is penciled in at starting RG - despite playing LG last year, and everyone says jackson is trash. I actually think i like his play better than wallace in our defense.

Taron Johnson... The call in the game was so shocked that he caught it that he just didn't have a great call.

The only thing is - you have this as an either or. As though at 25 there is a great guard, but also great WRs, PRs, and CBs. The way this draft is at 25 you might get a CB who's more likely a 2nd round talent than first. And the talent at WR might not see the field more htan 30-40% of snaps this year. I think the value at WR is great, but the impact in 2022 might be limited. The other thing to consider - people are penciling in the 4th year swing tackle/guard who had 294 snaps in 2021, 82 in 2020, 78 in 2019 - as our starting RG. Despite him not... playing RG really at all during this time. While also saying we need to replace dane jackson, who had 193 snaps in 2020, and 484 in 2021. I agree we could use some speed or whatever and upgrades on the back end etc. but he has played perfectly fine when given snaps. He's no more of a liability than wallace ever was, and seems to tackle better. If i had my choice in the first - gimme the top guy on the board. I assume they'd stay away from pass rusher, but it its a tackle or something it wouldn't shock me at all. Same with WR - we have good WRs but only 1 is on a rookie deal. Edmunds is in a walk year - and very expensive. Someone might want him in a trade. I'm also content to move down - Try and ger 5 picks across rounds 2-4 - can get CB, RB, WR, IOL, LB in any order and get some people to compete at all of those positions.

Baltimore is the one who's leaned into it really well. The goal is very much what it was with Buffalo and Tyrod - Run the ball, don't turn it over. WR route tree isn't crazy extensive and they send you deep a lot. The majority of other teams in this space have had QBs that were in the 2nd or 3rd tier, and they run the outside zone shanahan offense. Build a strong line on both sides and be hard to play against. Tennessee, New England, Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Cleveland, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Los Angeles Rams, etc. The Rams upgraded their QB to get over the hump to win a super bowl. Cleveland did that this year - but a year off away from football, a possible suspension, all the baggage that he comes with. Going to be tough. Denver will probably work a similar style as well under Hackett, but I don't see the defense being as good.

To be on an injury report, from what i remember you have to miss practice for treatment of some kind.

Our LB depth took a hit when we lost Klein, and as of today he has not been replaced. You also have to look to the future of possible life without Edmunds. Our Guard depth went from feliciano as next man up - to boettger and ford. They've played plenty but neither is who you want if someone goes down. Feliciano missed a bunch of time last year and we saw a bunch of these 2 and they stunk. Our tackle depth goes from Williams who can kick out to RT, to a 5th round pick in Doyle and no one else. Corner - lost wallace add jackson is honestly probably a wash to me, but they still need a player here if white isn't healthy enough to go as well as to push jackson. RB - Singletary is on an expiring, moss had a truly terrible year, johnson is a patch fill in. Could use some talent here but i'd hate it in the first. WR - Top 4 is fairly set, but behind diggs and davis is a ST guy and question marks. Gentry Hodgins Stevenson as options at WR5 on a team that is majority 3 wide. We're talking about pushing these guys off the roster: Dodson Ford Doyle (we need another tackle anyway) Lewis Moss Stevenson I don't think I really want any of them on the roster?