Bleeding Bills Blue

Breida missed a blitz pickup BAD yesterday. I doubt he played much after that, and its kind of why he's never been a starter.

I mean... they have won 2 of their last 8 and have scored more than 21 points 3 times in that stretch. Buffalo's defense hasn't been getting the takeaways in the last few games, but I think they're likely due against an offense lacking identity, offensive line ability, and QB. Could they win? Of course - its the NFL. But they have been playing pretty crappy for a couple of months now regardless of QB, CMC, etc.

I believe it was mitch morse who pancaked guys on that cutback run to the outside actually.

Low percentage of turnover, sack, anything that would result in having to run on the FG unit on 4th.

On the TD jackson and wallace both went with Evans so... i'm gonna go ahead and assume edmunds was hung out to dry there. I seriously doubt they'd run a single high safety look and have a LB in 1x1 coverage with a WR, so something was busted there.

Right?! and a lot of them were like - down field escape the rush type of plays too.

Both calls to me were questionable. Jackson had his head around on the gronk one - and while there was a fair amount of contact, a lot was initiated by gronk. As for the wallace one, his head was kind of around and i guess he was late to do it, but its tough to tell because evans didnt play the ball - he played wallace and basically yanked him down.

The gronk one in the first half was iffy. The one in ot I probably wouldn't have called. And then diggs couldn't get a call all day. Probably held 3 or 4 times including the last drive before OT.

The no call on diggs and then the call tb got in OT was just brutal.

Cant blitz - they have some contested catch guys and deep threats. Just gotta play physical at the catch point and break up some plays. I expect them to attack the middle of the field since its the easiest part to attack. They'll probably run it to start the game, but its really not what they do particularly well. I expect the defense to do what they usually do - try and get 3rd down stops and takeaways. It's boring and for the most part it works. As for the O, I'm not sure i even bother running the ball much. Maybe an RPO heavy attack to create conflicts for 2nd level defenders.

While i think speed helps in the running game as it is currently constructed - a lot of that has to do with the fact that the structure is such garbage that you're better off just sprinting to the edge. Arian foster, Alfred morris, Ingram, Leveon Bell - there's plenty of backs who have been successful outside the structure of the 40 yard dash. I don't have faith that moss will be one simply because he lacks the vision to make plays in outside zone - but it won't be because he wasn't slightly faster.

Kamara had 76 yards on 22 touches - they won that game by being +3 on turnover diff. Kamara hasn't been that great this year either. His 3.6 YPC average is barely better than moss, who is having an absolutely terrible year.

Except for losses to the Trevor siemien led saints, and Taylor heinicke led football team...

NE got a free first down on a 4th down QB sneak that appeared to not gain any yards.

As of now the patriots are the only "consistent" team in the AFC. KC is coming on - but everyone else is flawed. Indy - already has 6 losses, to get to 10-7 they'd need to win 2 of NE, Arizona, LV. Tenn - Should take their division at 10-7 simply because they get jax/houston in their final 5 and Indy already has 6 losses. But i don't feel good about them in pitt, sf, or miami. They look pretty lousy lately. Pitt - Need to win 3 of Minn, Tenn, KC, Cle, Baltimore. Cleveland - Need to win 4 of baltimore, LV, GB, Pitt, Cincy to get to 10 wins... very unlikely Buffalo - Can hit 10-7 if they win 3 out of 5 with carolina, ATL, and the jets. They will be dogs against the bucs and patriots but they can play with either. Cincy - SF, Den, Baltimore, KC, Cleveland. 3 wins to 10-7. Baltimore looks lost out there and injuries are piling up. Chargers are basically the west coast bills with regards to consistency, but i don't see them catching KC. The best team in the AFC right now is New england, and buffalo was a couple of plays away from beating them in adverse conditions that actually favored New England. The other would be KC, who buffalo beat. Go out and change the narrative - beat NE on their field.

Indy wins 3/4 (beats NE) and say loses to LV - 10-7 LV loses to KC but wins out against Cleveland, Denver, Indy, and Chargers - 10-7 Browns lose out to balt LV GB Pitt Cincy 6-11 Denver - win vs det Lose to cincy, lv, chargers, chiefs - 7-10 Chiefs - win vs KC chargers steelers bengals broncos - 13-4 Steelers - W vs Browns, L vs balt, tenn, KC, minn - 7-9-1 Baltimore - W vs browns, packers, rams, steelers, bengals - 13-4 Cincy - W vs 49ers, broncos, Browns - L vs chiefs and ravens - 10-7 LAC - W vs broncos texans giants, L vs chiefs and raiders - 10-7 Tenn - W vs jags, steelers, 49ers, dolphins texans - 13-4 Division winners would be NE, Balt, Tenn, KC. 3 spots remaining would go to any of - Indy, LAC, LV, Cincy, Buffalo. H2H sweep is out as i doubt any of those teams played all 4 of the others so it'd go to AFC record ( in this scenario): Indy - 8-4 LAC - 7-5 LV - 8-4 Cincy - 7-5 Buffalo (assuming losses to TB and NE) - 6-6 But if cleveland beats vegas they'd be out at 9-6. If Denver beats the chargers they would be out. etc. This requires a couple teams to lose all their games or most (Den, Cle, Pitt), as well as indy beating NE and Arizona, KC to lose to LV etc. Cleveland could jump in and the similar scenario would play out where someone like cincy would need to lose a bunch of games. There are a ton of scenarios in play here - but the current likelihood is chaos and some 9-8 or 9-7-1 team sneaking in.

Yes! And even if you do - operate in that play structure. Don't point at the line and jockey for a call - just run the play you called. If you want to throw up a back shoulder play and try and get an interference call sure, but if theres a 1st down to be had that you miss because you wanted an Offside - you're missing the point of the term "free play".

If buffalo wins the next 2 - the division lead would be in play. If buffalo wins 1 of next 2, they would need NE to drop either the jax game or miami game (and assume buffalo can win out against ATL and NYJ)... which while unlikely, its certainly possible NE lose to miami. Playoffs in 3/4 years and currently in a wildcard spot. I mean... there are 3 very winnable games all at home against carolina sans CMC, atlanta, and the jets. That alone puts them at 10-7 and likely in a wildcard spot. It's possible they miss at 10-7, but teams will fade and they all play each other.

Here's the thing... if you don't see the flag fly, why are you assuming it's called?

They're super stout up the middle so teams tend to get away from running the ball. NE ran the ball with backs 6 times for -4 yards and almost won (thats gotta be the strangest stat - a team that had a game and passed 3 times and had another in the same season where they ran it only 6 times). Very takeaway dependent - forced 12 fumbles and have 13 interceptions. Barret, suh, vea, JPP is a fearsome front 4 that will get after it if Buffalo doesn't execute or gameplan to keep them honest. They haven't played the best list of passing offenses either - Giants, Eagles, WFT, Saints, Bears, ATLx2, Indy, Miami, and NE. I'd look at the tape of what they did to stop Mahomes in the SB and figure they look to replicate something similar. Get after with front 4, keep the rush depth short to force Allen away from the LOS when he scrambles, probably play a fair amount of man, and double diggs.

I'd say 0-4 in 1 score games comes to mind. Blocked punt week 1. Titans sneak. Some turnovers in the jags. 2 RZ attempts and 0 points against NE. NE on the other hand is 3-3 in 1 score games. Yep - jags game comes down to a 40 something yard bass FG if daryl williams doesn't completely whiff on a block at the end of the game. Pittsburgh game buffalo was giving up yards but not TDs for the most part, and that blocked punt (whoever missed assignment) basically cost them the game. Dawkins whiffed on a block on that QB sneak and it cost them the game. If Moss bounces his run outside i think he at least gets close to the end zone for a sneak - the outside containment guy had completely abandoned it.

Twice in the 4th quarter. 0 points.

makes sense. I'm thinking ill wear a balaclava and just hope for the best. Maybe a baseball cap and winter cap over it

does that help? Or is it just so you're extra slippery when you run on the field?

Bust status in 11 games his rookie year? Yeesh. He hasn't flashed a ton as a pass rusher but he's been solid in run support. I don't even know how many pass rush snaps he's been getting recently either.