Bleeding Bills Blue

From a coverage perspective - the weakest players were probably Douglas, Lewis, Elam, and Williams. Of the 4 - two are off the roster, one is on the bubble, and the other projects to be a backup. They brought in 3 rookies, and 2 former bills to improve the play at CB2 and depth for all three spots. Williams moves into more of a part time role behind Milano who hopefully can stay healthy. Interested to see if hoecht gets some snaps at LB in some sub packages - i'm not sure exactly what position he's going to play but i'd sacrifice LB depth. As for the defensive line - gone are Phillips, Jefferson, Miller, Jackson, smoot, and toohill. and rousseau give you a really nice pair of run stoppers at end, which can allow you to use Bosa a bit less during the regular season. Epenesa isn't great but I do think depth there is valuable. They probably have 6 rosterable DTs in Oliver, Jones, Sanders, ogunjobi, carter, and walker. I'd assume if there's an odd-man out it's probably soloman, but I don't know that he can't make the practice squad assuming everyone's healthy to begin the year. 23 DE's were drafted this year, factor that with how many were picked a year ago - the late round 2024 guys get forgotten fast.

Figure diggs is a lock. Douglas probably too. Hollins too. Washington likely as well. So thats like 1 maybe 2 spots - for Polk, Bourne, Boutte, Baker.

It's unlikely he gets many more targets than he got with the chargers tbh. His impact will likely be as a downfield threat, a man beater, and blocking. Hollins had 50, Cooper had 32, MVS had 9. Thats only 91 targets. I'd assume many of those go to Coleman, Kincaid, Shakir, and Samuel. I'd say he's likely to get that 50-60 range.

sub 50% catch percentage is bad no matter where you're getting thrown the ball imo. He caught 2 of 9 targets here... i cant imagine people were clamoring to see more of him.

Douglas really struggled down the stretch, and extending benford means the other spot needs to be cheaper. 3 players gives u a better chance to find that starter, while also ideally improving some of the depth behind benford and TJ. DT was a no brainer after another season filling the depth chart with Phillips and Jefferson. Carter looked alright pre injury so hopefully he can get back there. WR really ur looking for a depth option on the outside who can play special teams. The guy they drafted and shavers are decent candidates for that role.

Now to be fair... Mike LaFleur did suck.

Or is... roughly graded similarly to the guy we took in the 7th. Or the people already on the PS from a year ago.

Umm... the Browns had a team comp% below 60.

Is this based off of his abilities or just the numbers he put up?

I mean he's suing the alleged victim in a criminal trial... Like it would be literally bringing an absolute PR nightmare into the fold. No team in the league is going to touch this guy as long as this is all ongoing.

Also if there isn't.. anyone you really love at the spot to end the season (or say shavers gets hurt, and prather is absolute trash), there are a ton of cuts. End of the day you're replacing hollins ST contributions at WR5 - and some level of snap mix across Hollins, MVS, and Cooper. A lot of those snaps likely go to palmer, samuel, coleman, and shakir. Kincaid also only played 43% of snaps last year and was outsnapped by 3 different WRs. A couple of examples of potential cuts: Assuming NE carries 6 WRs - One or two of - Boutte, Bourne, Polk, Baker are likely to be cut. Houston - Berrios and Watson - one is likely available for a special teams player. I guess this just goes to set the point of... Is a WR selected in the 4th round more valuable THIS SEASON, than a veteran in similar number of offensive snaps? What is gained in those offensive snaps that's potentially lost in special teams contributions? Is a WR selected in the 4th round of 2025 more or less valuable than a 2025 vet, and a 2026 WR draft pick?

I'd say there's a difference between athletic pass catching TE, and move TE. Kincaid profiles more as a move TE who isn't always on the LOS, and isn't always in line with the OL. Knox is more likely to be lined up on the LOS, and more likely to be lined up next to a tackle. As for Dawes - Morris played 214 snaps on O, and 324 snaps on STs last year. He had 5 catches on 8 targets. According to Sumer Sports (https://sumersports.com/players/tight-end/?t=BUF) he ran 59 routes on those 214 snaps. So... all that to say - 59 routes and a 5.3% target share on those routes can probably be filled in by anyone and get similar results.

Shenault doesn't return punts. Keep codrington over another DB. Also upgrade shenault in some way.

Jordan Davis played 14 snaps in the super bowl, and is a 2 down run defender.

Thats fair - but i think Fontenot gets the axe if he doesn't make the playoffs this year anyway so... if it doesn't work out it really isn't his problem anymore.

I'd probably prefer someone with some inside/out potential, or even a big nickel type safety for the future.

I think the Penix trade was shocking, but a team that had 31 sacks (31st in the league) maneuvering the draft to get 2 pass rushers in the first is not shocking to me. Bijan, London, Pitts are all approaching extension territory so it's kind of now or never for them to try and make a jump to the playoffs.

He's like lorenzo alexander imo. He's played DT, DE, OLB, etc. He even started at MLB due to injuries at his DT playing weight.

It's not like he has all these soft tissue injuries, he was knocked out cold and unable to return.

Pittsburgh makes sense to me. Tomlin is an interesting coach - i don't think he's the greatest with the X's and O's but his players listen to him and its probably a good locker room for him to fit into.

The issue is the 1 game per week type of thing - so adding an extra game tends to give all playoff teams a bye. Factoring in a 1st round bye, and that team possibly having clinched by week 18, you'd have teams looking at a potential 3-week bye.

Compensation

I always think like... if we get the power of hindsight - don't the raiders? or the eagles? or any of the other teams in front of the bills pick? They would all take jefferson too. Insanely underpaid and he has no guarantees beyond this year. He's already on his 2nd team and has made around 60 million dollars so... i don't see a scenario where he plays under that contract. He's a 31 year old all-pro averaging 14 sacks per year the last 5, who just watched Hunter and Garrett get big paydays at similar ages. He either gets traded and extended, or extended in cincy, but there's really no reason to cave and risk injury in a walk year. Especially when you have already made a lot of money, and you watched your team give 0 time pro-bowl/all-pro WR Higgins almost 29M AAV.

Losing Wilkins and Hunt last year was just.. brutal. Toughest two guys on your already soft team are gone and not replaced.

That's a projection of arm talent over QB ability. Tua's an elite processor and possesses elite ball placement and accuracy. If you want to ding him on durability and concussions, thats fair. The guy led the league in yards in 2023, and had a fine year in 2021 after missing time with broken ribs (courtesy of one AJ Epenesa). Why isn't there some level of critique to the game of Maye? I know he has some pop plays - and those were a good indicator to me that Allen was going to be a great player. But so did Fields. So does richardson. Hell, even mac jones. The only certainty with Maye is uncertainty. He's currently the 4th best QB in the first round - and one of the 5 hasn't played yet. With Tua - you're getting something in the vein of Burrow-lite (who is also very much at the same not immune to being propped up). Goff, Stroud, and probably a better version of players like Geno and Carr.