Bleeding Bills Blue

Compensation

I always think like... if we get the power of hindsight - don't the raiders? or the eagles? or any of the other teams in front of the bills pick? They would all take jefferson too. Insanely underpaid and he has no guarantees beyond this year. He's already on his 2nd team and has made around 60 million dollars so... i don't see a scenario where he plays under that contract. He's a 31 year old all-pro averaging 14 sacks per year the last 5, who just watched Hunter and Garrett get big paydays at similar ages. He either gets traded and extended, or extended in cincy, but there's really no reason to cave and risk injury in a walk year. Especially when you have already made a lot of money, and you watched your team give 0 time pro-bowl/all-pro WR Higgins almost 29M AAV.

Losing Wilkins and Hunt last year was just.. brutal. Toughest two guys on your already soft team are gone and not replaced.

That's a projection of arm talent over QB ability. Tua's an elite processor and possesses elite ball placement and accuracy. If you want to ding him on durability and concussions, thats fair. The guy led the league in yards in 2023, and had a fine year in 2021 after missing time with broken ribs (courtesy of one AJ Epenesa). Why isn't there some level of critique to the game of Maye? I know he has some pop plays - and those were a good indicator to me that Allen was going to be a great player. But so did Fields. So does richardson. Hell, even mac jones. The only certainty with Maye is uncertainty. He's currently the 4th best QB in the first round - and one of the 5 hasn't played yet. With Tua - you're getting something in the vein of Burrow-lite (who is also very much at the same not immune to being propped up). Goff, Stroud, and probably a better version of players like Geno and Carr.

They also seem to only play well at home - which means his offense doesn't work as well without the pre-snap motion and timing that you get by controlling the snap count. That and the inability to ever beat playoff-bound teams is probably going to be the downfall.

Thats kinda the problem though. He's not a good enough blocker - so you're paying for a 2 down running back.

Talented singer and actress wears makeup while promoting film... why is that critical? Lots of women wear makeup, especially so when they know they're going to be on camera.

I don't see them sweeping anyone in the division - we can just say they'll go 3-3 (probably generous). They need to go 7-4 outside the division - Lets be optimistic: @Saints - W Panthers - W Giants - W @Titans - W Browns - W @Ravens - L @Bengals - L (They did beat them last year in week 1, but i don't see that happening again. That leaves 4 games that they need to win 2 of - @Bucs, Raiders, Steelers, Falcons. The road is "there", but when you're mediocre (which i think is again generous) its really difficult to just pencil in wins. This team lost to the jags by 16 last year, lost to the titans, and were 2-6 at HOME, and 1-4 in the division playing actual rosters. Like the road to 10-7 exists, and they could also be 4-13 again and it wouldn't shock me in the least.

Maye over Tua? Thats crazy.

Yeah, i just think free agency makes everything seem hunky dory and it was a terrible roster a year ago. One draft and a bunch of free agents doesn't necessarily fix that. A 32 y/o WR1 coming off an ACL is a recipe for disappointment. A DT getting a massive contract after a fine season and better postseason seems like it has higher than normal bust potential. Barmore's return is probably the biggest get for them. Then as good as Maye looked at times... his last game they lost by 33 and he had 85 net yards passing.

I like some of the NE additions, and coaching certainly makes a difference, but 4-13 is 4-13 (and its barely that when you factor in the 4th win was against a team of backups). They lost twice to miami last year, and one of those games was started by Huntley. Miami went 8-9 last year with Tua missing 6 games, and the year before he played 17 games and they won 11. They lost 3 winnable games to Seattle, Tennessee, and Indianapolis in the 4 game stretch week 3-7 while he was out. I think they still continue to struggle against good teams, but they have beaten non-playoff teams pretty handily when Tua is healthy. I don't think that changes much if they move ramsey, as usually the gap between bad and mediocre is about as big as the gap between mediocre and good.

I mean Williams is a FA after 26-27, and i didn't see anything in his time here to say he needs to be a long-term piece of the team. They absolutely should be scouting another linebacker imo until you find that guy.

I think he'd be a CB and mix in on offense with the players they have there. Either way - i don't think a team in the top 3 wants to move that far down regardless of how far they are from competing. Giants have nabers and lawrence... thats pretty much it for star players (and nabers is just a potential star). If anyone "should" trade down there its probably cleveland tbh. They absolutely tore their team apart with that watson deal, and while im sure they "could" extend some of the UFA's... the dead money problem for them in 2026 is very real and borderline absurd. When you look at philly, they stagger things so void dead hits aren't all at once. Clevelands is an absolute mess: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/cleveland-browns Watson's not dead money but... lets be real, he's dead money. Every other player on this list is a free agent, and these are the cap hits currently there for them to NOT play there in 2026, and the only way to get out of it is to extend them so you can spread the hit. Then in 2027 Watson is a UFA and his dead money is 50.4M... and lowering the 80M hit in 2026 just increases that 2027 number.

I thought for sure dez bryant was the pick the year they picked spiller. Stevie ended up becoming the WR1 that season, but they no longer had owens and it felt like we were still in need of someone at WR. Not to mention they already had both jackson and lynch. Then troup over gronk? With literally nothing at TE. Swing and a miss.

2027 is the out as it stands today. They'd have a cap charge of.. and i think im understanding this - 27M in option bonus and 3M in guaranteed base salary for 2027 (25M on the 2025 option bonus, and 15M on the 2026 option: 40M - 5 (2025 option charge)- 8 (2026 option charge)). So 30M cap charge to not play there roughly - and they'd have to cut him before the 3rd league day or owe him a 7M roster bonus and 17M of his salary guarantees. If they however decided to lower his cap hit in either 2025 or 2026, then the 2027 number will change.

Fact of the matter is goalie's equipment got bigger, goalies got considerably better, and offenses had to adapt. Ovechkin has lead the league in goals 9 times. He missed his first year with a lockout, and had another season affected by Covid. The guy they named the goal scoring trophy after lead the league 5x.

I think it depends on the draft. They need some upgrades on the defensive line even with 3 FA's added, and there's a huge hole at cornerback. However at pick 30.. the 1st round talent at DT and CB could be dried up. If Starks or Emmanwori is there at 30, and the guys you liked at the other spots are gone - it has to be at least in consideration. It's more of a trust your chart exercise, if those two guys are sticking out at the top, even if its not a major need, you do need to continue to accumulate talent and its not a position that is totally finalized imo. If after the draft the depth chart is as it stands today? I don't see the harm in trying to fit him in under the cap to push to start at FS.

Good idea! If i'm not invited to Christmas, I don't have to cancel.

Are we sure that Milton qualifies as "steel" in this scenario? He was picked after Travis and Rattler a year ago, and belongs firmly on the roster bubble for every team in the league. Every team has at least 2 QBs on the roster currently, and then another 10 will probably get drafted. Throw in some UDFA's. Dallas paid the 5th so they could have Milton for camp, and probably won't draft a QB now. The other 10 guys drafted this year will push people off rosters - and he's a 6th round pick so he's far from a roster lock with anyone. I do think NFL "development" for a QB happens mostly in the offseason, as mid-season the backup QB gets very little work, and if you're the 3rd QB you're actually practicing another teams offense.

If you plan to release milton then he's really not... worth anything?

The team who got a 5th round pick for a player they weren't planning to keep.

Well... it's the preseason so... likely nothing happens Much like week 18 games against a teams entire roster of backups. I'm not sure how much value you get there. Peterman carved people up in the preseason when the other team doesn't blitz, and end of roster guys are playing the whole game. If that defense Milton faced suited up for the bills for 17 games, they would have been by far the worst unit in the league. None of the tools that existed before are any different than they were a year ago when they drafted him in the 6th (pick 193). He's already 25 (older than trey lance), and the between the ears processing and stuff is where all the question marks were when he came out. Nothing that happened last season or in any preseason changes that. From NE's perspective - they likely floated him in trade talks and took the best or only offer. Signing dobbs to me meant they would either trade him or try and waive him to the PS. Nobody is trying to carry 3 QBs for an entire season as players just get hurt too much to lose that roster flexibility. Ch NE Trades: 2025 - Pick 217 (Chart value of 4.2) 2024 - Pick 193 (Chart value of 13.8) Dallas Trades: 2025 - Pick 171 (Chart value of 23)

They were 4-13 last year, and while they added in free agency and have a new coaching staff - they were not close in many of those games. They were outscored by 128, 3rd fewest points scored in the league ahead of Cleveland and NYG. Washington did the 1 year turnaround, but a lot broke right for them and they made a ton of moves to accrue picks, space, and players. The 3 uncommon opponents of - NYG, LVR, Tenn vs. buffalos Chiefs, Texans, Eagles is an advantage for them for sure. But Buffalo's away schedule is easier, and Buffalo is a really good home team. Buffalo away games of Pitt, Atlanta, Carolina, Cleveland, Houston NE Away games of Tenn, Cinci, TB, NO, and Baltimore

I mean Dalton's last "good" season was what, 2017? I feel like trubisky put up better numbers in Chicago than anything Dalton has done in the last 5 years. He did really suck in pittsburgh, but so did everyone else that played on those bad steeler offenses - to be clear i think Mitch sucked the most 🙂. Pickett, Rudolph, Trubisky, Wilson, Fields - doesn't really matter when they can't block, suck at running, and have one of the worst playcallers in the league. I like vet backups personally. They watch (and have watched) a lot of film, and backup QBs are more and more getting involved in coaching. Help get the starter ready to go.

Maybe they look at him after the draft - Jackson's deal only guarantee's him 500K, so he's far from a confirmed piece and I'd be lying if i said i watched him play at all in Carolina. I assume they'll draft someone early to in all likelihood start across from Benford. Primary boundary depth right now would be Jackson, but if they wanted to bring in Douglas to compete for the same spot I'd be open to it. Douglas is turning 31 this year vs. Jackson who is turning 29. Jackson also... really sucked in 2023 and was one of the main reasons they traded for Douglas to begin with. This would come down to cap space, and whether Douglas is OK with a substantial pay cut. I do think he's as capable of being the 3rd corner here as Jackson, and in many ways is probably still an upgrade. From a drafting corners perspective I'd like to see them get 2 - one early to ideally start on the boundary, and one later to potentially push for the spot currently occupied by Ingram and/or Lewis as depth behind Johnson with inside/out potential.