Bleeding Bills Blue

I mean it kinda worked against the chiefs this season.... Up 2 we drove the length of the field and went up 9 under 2 to go. The piece to me that makes it work? If you are not up - there is a switch you flip with josh allen to change that script.

His route was also way too flat on the LOS and he didn't get into the end zone until he was dropping the pass. And if he's not open, there's one fewer guy in that window and he can potentially run it in.

Same as a 2 point conversion. Which has a success rate of probably around 50%. So win probability is going to factor that as - 50% chance you win the game outright, 50% chance you don't. Then of that remaining 50%... what are the chances you stop them? If you don't stop them, whare the chances you stop the 2 point conversion? In either scenario what are the chances you make the FG after to either win or tie the game? If it goes to overtime, 50% chance you win the coin toss, then with the ball do you score or do they? Like it is just a cascade of what if's - Kicking simplifies it to +8, stop them we win, stop the conversion we win, give up 8, and we get the ball to win. I think the analytical thought is probably go for it - but game flow wise it felt like... this gives us the best chance to win. Not needing to get the ball and a score to get to OT as well.

3rd and goal from the 2 and we ran a QB draw again. Like... he's one of the best QBs in the league, why can't we throw here? I believe you can only challenge a spot if it results in a change of down or possession.

I think yes he dropped it. but lamar's pump fake hesitate move really shortened the space for him to get his feet in. He's wide open out of the rub, you ideally want to throw that in the direction he's running. Not throw it to a spot he has to catch it in.

In real time it looked like white yanked him down. If you freeze frame stuff its more obvious but the ref who called the penalty had a very good view right on the field. They also never called a single OPI on baltimore despite numerous pick plays, including a couple full initiated blocks by andrews well before the ball is delivered. Much like a hold... these are drive killers.

I think the mahomes gets all the calls is a bit overblown. I do think officiating will play a role, because it always does.

If i can't jump for the jump ball because of contact... then there's probably too much contact. He shoved him and extended his arm so i can see the opi discussion, but his entire body was wrapped around coleman at that point. Right, maybe if he tried to jump instead of create space it would've been more apparent.

It's also a position that has a track record of slower starting careers, but everything is situational for sure. There's been some rookies who have made statistical impacts like laporta and bowers this year, but neither of them is also sharing snaps with a quality veteran tight end. Buffalo was also 26th in pass attempts this season. When you factor in that the bills were the least sacked team in the league, they probably ran among the fewest pass plays in the league. That TD against the steelers comes to mind. As for gesicki... they cannot run the ball when they need to be able to and a tight ends job is more than just catching out routes underneath higgins and chase.

Yes its worth keeping a player on their rookie contract after 2 seasons. I don't see him or Knox going anywhere going into next season. You'd be trading a player who's the 32nd highest paid by AAV at TE (knox is 13th FWIW), and then immediately either using that pick to replace him, or spending more than you save on the replacement player. The contract works out that you can draft the knox replacement this year or next, and if kincaid deserves an extension you can do it.

I'd say its scheme familiarity, and blocking. He's also been banged up a bit. He missed 2 games with a wrist injury when everyone hurt their wrist early this year. And he missed the NE game with a back injury. There was also a personal issue that caused him to miss some practice. In any case, this next game is the big one and one of the main reasons they brought him in.

I think the pass rush has just not been getting home all year long. At the end of the day though, every team feasts on bad offensive lines and QBs that hold the ball. 3rd down defense for "good defenses" is still never as good when you look at their games against good offenses. The lions had the best 3rd down defense in football this year from a conversion standpoint. Buffalo was 5-10, the jaguars were 2/10. Pittsburgh was 2nd. They held denver to 2/10 in week 2, baltimore was 10-15 in the playoff game. Buffalo had the fewest turnovers in a season in a long time - yet their turnover % isn't #1. The defense was 3rd in the league in turnovers, yet their turnover % is #1. The goal is to have fewer drives, and amplify the impact of a turnovers and punts. Attempts total. I'm not sure how there is a decimal either. But if you divide the actual attempts, but the "expected" you would get the index which is designed to measure how much more often he went for it, than was expected to.

Buffalo was expected to go for it on 11.8% of attempts, they went for it on 21.

It was a game flow thing though. Up two, you want to be up more than 3 so you don't lose on a FG. You also force them to go for 2 if they score a TD when they are down 5. If they score and don't get the 2... then you are down 1 and can win on a FG. Now up 5 with 3:30 ... if they were closer i think they just sneak it (i think they also sneak it if they run into a 3rd and goal from the 2 again). But going up 8 under 4 minutes forces them to score a TD and 2 point conversion. The only result that you can lose on is if they don't get the 2, and get the onside kick. If harbaugh's aggressive move to go for 2 in the 3rd quarter works, i think they try and get the TD to try and put it away. But 8 points with 330 is a very advantageous position. They can't really play this out to not give Allen the ball with time because they need the TD.

He really doesn't play that much either. 15 snaps in this one, and just 20% of snaps all year.