jletha

I think youre imagining people getting more excited than they are. This is just fun, and most people just treat it as that.

What is your preferred method of *rumors* to be started?

thats great. Really helps me feel better about this defense.

Dont let anyone tell you we cant sign someone because of the cap space. The cap is fake.

Interesting that this is a lateral move. By all accounts he was well liked in Buffalo. I wonder if he wanted out or if we werent overly interested in having him return. Either way maybe itll be a change for the good since our WR development was lacking last season.

Every once in a while these things turn out to be true. So take it with a heaping pile of salt but...

I cant figure out if these tiers are "all time" or "right now". Belichek I think has lost some shine right now but of course hes the GOAT. Why is Siriani a tier about Pederson? Pederson has won a SB (in Philly no less). I dont see how Tomlin is so low either, give his success over a very long period of time. FWIW I would remove 1B and make it all tier 2 and have McD there. I think hes on the same level as Harbaugh, just has gotten the SB yet. I know that wont be popular here but thats my thoughts.

The Bills are not clearly inferior to the Bengals and Chiefs. They played their worst game in 2 years at the worst time. Their lines are clearly inferior, specifically O-line. The D-line, while not great, was missing its two most important pieces in Jones & Miller. So I am willing to chalk it up to that and know that it should be better next year assuming they arent injured again. Evidence that we are not clearly inferior to the Chiefs is that we beat them at full strength this year. OF course its no guarantee we would beat them in January but to say we are *clearly* inferior is wrong. Same with the Bengals.

I think you have to give Ken another year and have to desperately improve the O-line. As for the defense I am sorta done with Frazier. A great regular season coordinator but the defenses do not show up in the playoffs. We also cant let Beane off the hook here. Its been 2-3 drafts in a row now without anyone game changing. Groot is invisible without Von on the other side, Elam is getting benched, Oliver is invisible, Epenesa stinks.

I think Josh needs to chill out when up in the 3rd quarter and you want to bleed some clock (Ben mentions this possession) but otherwise I will ride with his play every time. To me it is so obviously deliberate that Josh and Ken decided together to try to attack downfield, I dont think its just Josh. It has been an emphasis since Chi and continued into NE and then MIA. I expect to see a few against Cincy as well but I also expect to see a more balanced offense than we saw last week because I dont expect as many blitzes from Cincy AND I also expect more designed Josh runs.

Also were going to lose to the Patriots if not a fumble at the very end of the game. NE was moving the ball at will.

It means he wants to have a cooking competition with him lol I think chop it up is pretty well understood but for those that dont know it means to have a casual conversation or catch up. Like friends gets together to chop it up.

Im not sure exactly. I know there are different calculations for EPA based on website. The key to calculating would be how you want to calculate the chances of a TD/FG/punt in any situation for any given team. If you take a league wide average you lose a lot of nuance but you have more data. If you want to try to break it out by team youd have a lot less data but also any teams chances of scoring a TD in each situation are unique to that team. For example the Ravens will have a higher chance of FG conversionn that other teams at any given distance because of Tucker. But I doubt they go to that level.

https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/expected-points-added-epa-nfl/ Expected points added "EPA" is explained very well here. It really boils down to the fact that in any down & distance scenario you have a chance of punting, FG or TD. The further away you are from the EZ the lower your probability of scoring are but those probabilities rise as you get closer to the EZ. They also will rise and fall based on down. So being in 1st and 10 from the opponent 30 is different than being in 3rd and 10, one will have a much higher probability of FG which is less points. On any given play if you increase your teams chances of scoring then you have added to the "expected points" your team will score on a drive. So instead of looking at total yards on a play, it factors in situation. eg, getting 5 yards on 3rd and 4 means you got a first down and increase EPA while getting 5 yards on 3rd and 6 means your punting or settling for a FG so your EPA would drop. Its not predictive of championships, its a QB stat mostly but also a team stat to an extent. But the QBs with high EPA and EPA/play are considered "good" and they generally win more games. But the playoffs, being one-and-done are much too volatile to be able to predict by any model. https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/season/2017/seasontype/2/sort/cwepaTotal/dir/desc This page has total EPA by season if you want to take a look. Spoiler: Brady, Brees, Rogers, Manning are often at the top.

Allen is #1 or #2 (depending on model) for total EPA over the season even with the turnovers. EPA is really all that matters at the end of the day, since the goal is to score points.

"Coming in Peace" posts are the absolute worst.

We suck...just less than all of the other teams.

on designed runs Josh is still lethal but Miami did hold his scrambles well. I can only remember 1 designed run from the Mia game that went for ~10 yards. I think we will see more against Cincy.

He absolutely could have and should have come back to the ball. It was a tight throw for sure, but I didnt see any clearly better options on the throw. But he should have worked back to Josh.

Ravens can also get home with 4, Im not sure our D-line can do that consistently with their O-line banged up.

Its possible (although nobody knows for sure) that Dorsey told Josh "if you see Cover 0 go deep". Maybe unlikely but possible.

A lot of it is mis-remembering the last few games + playoff games as the season. The offense is better or as good this year in almost every metric. It looks different but its the same. Many ups and downs. I tend to think its Josh and his 2020 season is more of the abnormal, these last two are normal. But Im also fine with that because we win a lot.

I like EPA/play because it is agnostic of how you move the ball, just that it gets moved.