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jletha

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Posts posted by jletha

  1. 1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

     

    While I'm not a big fan of passer rating, I despise QBR.

     

    Yet, in this instance, I think QBR better captures Josh's performance.  The picks weren't entirely his fault.  And his ability as a runner - not measure by passer rating - obviously had a huge impact on the outcome.  

    No metric is perfect, especially on a week-to-week basis. But for the total season so far this is the leaderboard in QBR:

     

    image.png.d9bba7c012bd5f329928922392f59e3d.png

     

    Which seems mostly fair. You can argue about the order, but overall thats not a bad list of top 11

  2. It wasnt his best day by any stretch but anyone who watched knows we won because of Josh and not despite. When a QB posts a rating of 17 and 3 ints thats not usually the case.

     

    btw, while his QB Rating was 17, his QBR (the ESPN stat, which encompasses running and situation) was 11th overall for the week amongst all QBs. Which feels more correct.

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  3. 35 minutes ago, MJS said:

    Add up his rushing and passing. He still turned the ball over more than he scored. If it was all through the air we would still be saying that he had a relatively poor game for his normal standard of play.

     

    It's not the end of the world. Even the best QB's have bad games sometimes.

    Sure it wasnt his best day compared to what weve become used to. But it was you that said a few times that it was his worst performance ever and I just dont think thats true.

  4. 8 minutes ago, MJS said:

    That's all fine and dandy, but this WAS one of Allen's worst games. That's fine, because we still got the win. Even in one of his worst games he was able to overcome it and still make some plays.

     

    A rating of 61 is ridiculous, though. Aaron Rodgers is at 67 for the season. 50 is supposed to be average. The dude threw three interceptions and had less than 50% completion percentage. QBR highly overrates rushing stats.

    But the rushes were very useful. Many went for long gains, and he had two TDs off of them. How can you overrate rushes, especially ones that turn into scores? Are they any worse than passes? If you turned every JA running play into a pass with the same result in yards and scores he had a pretty good game. I dont think a 61 QBR is ridiculous but maybe its a bit high.He was dominant, it just wasnt through the air.

  5. 5 hours ago, MJS said:

    ESPN thinks he did well. His QBR is 61.5 for this game, further illustrating how useless QBR is.

     

    Allen did some nice things on the ground, but he'll be the first to tell you that this was one of his poorest games. But he still did enough to win and has lots to learn from and work on for the next poor weather game.

    I think that QBR is more fair. Obvi Josh didnt play great but I really didnt think he played the worst game of his career. For the first three drives he was on point throwing until it was goal to go. He racked up so many incompletes at the goal line before he just ran it in. Many balls went right off of players hands. Sure than can be on him but also he was putting the ball where it needed to be at least. Then two tipped pass ints and we basically abandoned the pass all together.

     

    After that he was dominant as a rusher. Usually a 17 rating with 3 ints means you won despite your QB play. But I dont think we win that game without JA.

  6. 14 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

    Yeah, but it wasn't "win or else"

    It was the same as this. Win and basically guarantee your spot in the playoffs. Lose and youve still got a chance but you need to win the rest and may need some help.

     

    IF we lose to NE it isnt "or else". Almost every predictor says if we lose to NE but beat ATL and NYJ we are 85% to get into the playoffs still

  7. 26 minutes ago, mattynh said:

    A couple points

    1.  They might be able to get more money with less seats...by charging more per seat....supply and demand.   I don't think they need more seats, they have a hard time selling what there is now and the secondary market is pretty cheap especially for the bad weather games.

    2.  New stadiums have been trending with smaller capacities but a better overall experience for the fans.  I  think Foxboro is not even at 70,000 and they have probably 5-10X the fans to draw from.  You will still be able to go, might be a few more clams though.

    Obviously its an old stadium, so not a direct comparison, but Soldier Field is at 61,500. Chicago is one of the largest markets in the country.

     

    Also Allegient in LV, just built last year, is 65k.

     

    60k in Buffalo seems like a good number.

    1 hour ago, Irv said:

    OK. Good points.  But if you could sell 10K more tickets wouldn’t that be better?  I get the fact that you don’t need a 200K seat stadium.  But why not have the opportunity for at least a little more dough?   We’ve proven year after year that we can fill a 70K seat stadium.  

    More seats means a large stadium which just either increases costs and/or makes the seats that are there that much worse.

     

    I think having a better experience for 60k fans is preferred to having a worse experience for 68k and 2k empty seats. Just IMO

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  8. 28 minutes ago, Irv said:

    I don’t get 60K. We went from 80K to 71K, now 60K.  Makes no sense.  

    Lots factors into this.

     

    1) our capacity compared to market size was always high but our market has shrunk. Going to 60k brings us close to league average for market size.

     

    2) ticket sale sused to be a huge money maker for teams. Now the money is dominated by broadcast rights so you dont NEED large stadiums with high capacity

     

    3) demand for being in the stadium has dwindled because the home-watching experience has gotten so good. Gone are the days of crowding around a 16in CRT. Now the at home experience is much better than in the stadium in terms of watching the game. Didnt used to be that way when the Ralph was built.

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  9. bad execution in the RZ is our primary issue but to be 0-5 in once score games is such bad luck. To be even 2-3 would mean a world of difference on how we all feel about this team.

     

    Last year we had the Rams game and the Patriots game 1 where we won games on some luck. This year we have the the opposite in the Titans game and the Buccs game where some bad luck lost it for us.

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  10. 40 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

    Pats season has been very similar to ours this year but for some reason we give them the benefit of the doubt and not our own team. Blowout wins against mediocre teams with injury problems / bad teams all season. 

    I think a difference is that 1) they havent had a really ugly loss. Theyre losses are mostly close to good teams (besides week 1). 2) They are rolling without any hiccups. If they had won 4 of 5 with a head scratcher in the mix Id feel different. But they come out ready to play week after week. Mac Jones isnt really stellar but is playing well and the defense is just flat out good.

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