I think if you set everything at 50% odds, and a FG at close to 100%, then you just keep multiplying by 50% for each event in the sequence to see that the Ravens' chances of winning drop a lot if we kick a FG.
Kick fieldgoal- Ravens then need a TD - 50%, then a 2 pt conversion - 25%, then stop us from a FG - 12.5%, then win a coin toss - 6.25%, then score a TD - 3.13%, then stop us - 1.6%.
Go for it- 50% to stop us, then score a TD, 25%, then stop us, 12.5%.
So like, making broad assumptions, we were 12 times as likely to win by kicking the FG.