mjt328

Looking at the "number of holes" is not a way to build a roster. 1. Quarterback is the most important position on the team by a mile. We need to get this pick right. Not wait for the scraps to fall to us. 2. Zay Jones was a top prospect last year. His rookie year was disappointing, but I doubt the Bills have totally given up on him yet. 3. With the blocking scheme change, I'm optimistic that John Miller can come back and claim that spot at Right Guard. 4. I have no interest in bringing back Preston Brown. We can do better. Based on the estimates I've seen, we should have enough cap space to sign a few more guys. The second wave of players is significantly cheaper than the last. We should have plenty to bring in another Cornerback, a Linebacker, an Offensive Lineman and maybe another Wide Receiver. The key at this point is finding the diamonds in the rough, not the guys asking for $7-10 million per year. We can probably move up to #2 or #3 by trading away our extra 1st Round Pick and a 2nd Rounder. After a QB is picked, that would still leave us with a 2nd Round Pick and two 3rd Rounders this year, along with our entire draft next year. Three Day 2 picks to fill out the additional roster holes. I'm perfectly comfortable with that.

Things will start sorting themselves out closer to draft day. At this point, the combine/workouts are still fresh in people's minds. Many of those in the media haven't done extensive film review yet. Teams are throwing out smokescreens left and right. It's hard to tell whether all the sudden Josh Allen hype is for real. One thing to keep in mind though. Scouts and GMs seem to place more emphasis on physical abilities than most of the general football-watching public. Regular fans put more emphasis on stats and "how good" a player was in college. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the Allen hype is real. Although I personally would have REALLY have a tough time trading all these picks and moving up - just so we could take a massive boom/bust type prospect. It's going to be an especially tough pill for Bills fans to swallow, because Allen's scouting report reads so close to EJ Manuel. That's the main reason people are panicking over all the recent Josh Allen reports.

Of course not. And nobody is saying "draft order" magically makes players better or worse. For the most part, NFL scouts and GMs are in pretty close agreement about which players have the best chance of success in the pros. There are obviously some variations between teams. One team may place a premium on arm strength, while another is more interested in accuracy. Another may disqualify a player for off-field concerns, while another is willing to take the risk. Doctors may have different opinions about injury history. But if you could take a peek at all 32 draft boards, I think you would find them remarkably similar. When people post stats/historical data about "draft order" - what they are really trying to say is that higher ranked prospects (based on consensus) have a MUCH higher track record of success than lower ranked prospects. It's just simple math. Yes, there are always going to be Tom Bradys that nobody sees coming. Yes, there are always going to be Jamarcus Russells and Ryan Leafs that are raved about as prospects, then bust horribly. But the numbers don't lie. Your odds are better taking your 1st or 2nd ranked guy, as opposed to the 4th, 5th, etc. If you could take a look at every team's 2018 QB draft board, I would fully expect to see Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen within EVERY team's Top 2-5. Depending on how those teams rank things like arm strength, accuracy, height, athletic ability, etc., I would fully expect Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson sprinkled into those other spots. Of course, someone might like Allen or Mayfield as their #1. Others may have them at their #4-5. But I highly doubt (for example) that anyone will have Darnold ranked as a 4th Round prospect, or someone like Kyle Lauletta as worthy of a Top 5 pick. At the end of the day, if 32/32 scouts believe that Josh Rosen is going to have a better chance at success than Mason Rudolph... there is a higher probability they are going to be right.

I would rather have a Top 10 quarterback and a mediocre roster, than a mediocre quarterback and an elite roster. The only teams who have been able to MAINTAIN success for a lengthy period of time are those with TOP quarterbacks. Teams like Jacksonville are going to max out in 1-2 years. That franchise (especially the defense) is absolutely LOADED with talent. But their quarterback is sub-standard. By 2019-2020, the salary cap is going to catch up and they will be forced to purge a good chunk of the roster. Unless Blake Bortles takes a major step forward next year, that franchise will completely waste the opportunity. That is their window for success without a quarterback. The Colts have a terrible roster. But if Andrew Luck comes back healthy this year, they will be right in the middle of the playoff race. With even a little bit of talent, they have a much better chance at sustained/long-term success than Jacksonville. Until Luck is done, they will always have a shot.

I'm sure the Brown are considering Barkley. But when all is said and done, they will almost certainly take a Quarterback. That franchise has suffered too long without a decent QB to just take what is "leftover" at the #4 pick. It's very possible that both New York and Indy trade out. That means they could end up with their 3rd choice. Unless scouts like 3 guys equally (which is very rare), I have a feeling they will start leaning in that direction.

1. NFL history shows the vast majority of successful QBs are among the first 2-3 drafted in any given year. 2. NFL history shows that drafting success rates steadily decrease from the Top 5, to the Top 10, to the last half of the 1st Round, to the early 2nd Round, and so on. By the 4th or 5th Round, it's almost impossible to even find a marginal starter. Some of the fans on this board are unbelievable. After what this franchise has endured for the last two decades, many of you would STILL prefer to go the safe route. You would prefer to let the 3rd, 4th or 5th option fall to us - rather than get the pick of the litter in a strong QB class, JUST so we can have another Linebacker or Receiver on the roster.

Just logged on. 10 pages dedicated to an anonymous bartender's "inside" information. Part of me is shocked that anyone thought this could possibly be credible. But then I remembered that CNN is still considered to be a major news network, and that most of the people I know get their news from Facebook, Twitter or the Daily Show.

Every indication is that Philly wants a 1st Round Pick. No way that we are creeping up the draft board, just so we can flip it over to the Eagles.

The D-Line is really starting to shape up. This gives us a nice 3-man rotation with Hughes, Lawson and Murphy. I would still like to see us draft another DT to eventually take Kyle's place. Our Linebacker group still looks terribly ugly. It's hard to believe that LB hasn't become a bigger priority over the last two offseasons, considering Sean McDermott's history as a Defensive Coordinator.

Jets are still picking a QB high. Denver is still a possibility. Miami is a possibility. Arizona would only need to trade up 2 spots to be ahead of us. 2017 - Watson had the best rookie year. It's a long-way before you can say he was the better pick. And guess what? Houston traded up to get him. If either Trubisky or Mahomes turn out good, their teams also traded up to get them. 2016 - Prescott was better as a rookie. Goff was better as a sophomore. Once again, it's going to be awhile before you can say who was the better pick. Either way, this draft has produced three potential franchise QBs so far. Two of them required major trade ups. Everyone else that waited besides Dallas was stuck with garbage. 2014 - This was an awkward class. Opinions were all over the place on Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater and Carr. All were considered late-1st or early-2nd round talents. None were considered top guys. Like the season we reached for Manuel, this would have been a good year to wait. But the Jags overdrafted Bortles, and the Raiders got the only real bargain. 2013 - This was probably the worst QB class in 20 years. Smith, Barkley, Manuel, Nassib, Glennon and a few others were generally considered 2nd Round talents at best. But it was inevitable someone was going to reach and look like idiots. Congratulations. It was us. Here is the thing. Quarterback is the toughest position to play in the NFL, with the most difficult transition from college to the pros. There is virtually no such thing as a safe QB prospect. There are only a handful of human beings who reach the height, hand-size and arm strength requirements to be a pro QB. Out of those guys, only a small percent have the accuracy and mechanics to be good at actually throwing the ball. Out of those guys, only a fraction have the mental capacity to quickly read a defense and react within a split-second. Not to mention that 99% of college offenses don't use the same system concepts that you see in the pros. No matter how much homework NFL scouts do on these guys, it's never going to be an exact science. A large number of QB prospects (even the top ones) just aren't going to make it. And at the end of the day, the General Manager/Head Coach/Scouts that decided to take the risk will be ridiculed and probably stand to lose their jobs, because they could have gone the safe route and picked a Pro-Bowl tackle or All-Pro linebacker. Now it's easy to see all the massive QB busts and assume this whole thing is a "toss-up" and you might as well wait until the later rounds. Right? I mean, Tom Brady was taken in the 6th Round! Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins were taken in the 4th Round! The problem is, these guys are the rare exception. Not the rule. You can almost count the success stories on one-hand of guys who came from the later rounds. Drew Brees (2nd), Derek Carr (2nd), Jimmy Garoppolo (2nd), Russell Wilson (3rd), Dak Prescott (4th), Kirk Cousins (4th), Tom Brady (6th). That's a total of 7 guys, out of hundreds of quarterbacks taken after the 1st Round over the last many years. Look around the league and you will see that most of the successful QBs in the league were the highest rated guys in their draft classes: Roethlisberger, Ryan, Stafford, Luck, Rivers, Wentz, Goff, Manning, Newton, Palmer, Smith and Rodgers were all in consideration for #1 overall in their respective drafts. The vast majority of NFL starters came in the top-half of the 1st Round. It has been this way for almost the entirety of NFL history. Regardless of the high percentage of QB busts, it's clear that NFL scouts know what they are doing. They know which guys have the highest chance of success, and which guys are a long-shot. Once in awhile, a short guy beats the odds (Brees, Wilson). Once in awhile, a player manages to improve drastically once he hits the pros (Brady). But the majority of the time, the best QBs are going to come off the board at the beginning of the 1st Round. If the Bills have their top choice out of everyone, that will give them the best odds at landing a good one.

At this point, the Bills are already down to scraps. Hopefully they don't get into a bidding war for AJ McCarron.

Why do we need to move up? Well, first of all, there are several QB-needy teams sitting in front of us (Cleveland, Denver, New York, Miami) or directly behind us (Arizona). If we sit in our current spot, we could realistically miss out on the Top 4-5 prospects. Second, this draft has some of the best QB prospects to come out in the last 5 years. Saying they have "flaws" or "warts" is just lazy, and can be said about virtually every QB prospect that has ever existed. This isn't the 2013 class, where everyone available was should have gone 2nd Round earliest. Both Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen would get serious #1 consideration in most drafts. Finally, let's actually go back and look at the drafts since 2013, because I don't believe you are remembering them correctly. 2017 is too early to make a judgement call on. Mahomes played one game. Watson was hurt half the season. Trubisky was a rookie on a terrible team. 2016 - Best prospects were considered Goff and Wentz. They went #1-2, and by their sophomore seasons were easily the best QBs out of that class. Prescott was really good as a rookie, but slumped in Year 2 without the fantastic O-Line and running game. Outside of Prescott, nobody else drafted has been better than a backup. So 13 quarterbacks were drafted after the #2 pick and only one has been good. Not odds I like betting on. 2015 - Best prospects were considered Winston and Mariota. They went #1-2 and are easily the best QBs drafted that year. Everyone else has been backup level at best. If you wanted a QB this year, you needed to get one of these two guys. 2014 - Best prospect in a very weak class was considered Bortles, with a bunch of other guys considered late 1st Round/early 2nd Rounds. Best QB has been Derek Carr, who has been inconsistent. Teddy Bridgewater was OK (overrated) and then got hurt. And no, I'm not counting Jimmy G until he actually plays a full season as a starter. Nobody outside of the 2nd Round has done anything. 2013 - Everyone said the QB class was terrible, and sure enough, every QB was terrible. If you notice, there is a trend. Most years, there are 1-2 really strong QB prospects. Those guys always go in the Top 3, and usually end up as the best guys out of the draft class by far. In my opinion, both Darnold and Rosen fit that mold in this year's class. After the really strong guys, there are usually 3-5 guys with high upside, but certain traits that make them riskier bets. This year's examples would by Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and possibly Mason Rudolph. These guys are more hit-and-miss. The problem is, sometimes you have years like 2013-2014 where the "secondary guys" are the only thing available. That is when you get the Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel overdrafts who are outplayed by guys later.

You've pinpointed it exactly. Picking a QB in the first round is never the safest option. If you fail and get someone like EJ Manuel, it probably means 3-4 years of losing, followed by a start-over in the front office/coaching staff. If you play it safe, it usually means having a "talented roster" constantly pulled down by mediocre veteran QB play. But if you succeed, your team is set for 10-15 years with a franchise QB.

I was OK with us going after Sam Bradford. But I'm glad we didn't offer him that much. Yikes.

Again. It's not about being a "can't miss" future Hall of Famer. There is no such thing. Even Andrew Luck has been a relative disappointment (mostly due to injuries). If you are waiting for a QB prospect without flaws, you will be sitting around forever.

We could land the next Ray Lewis at #12, and that pick would still be a massive failure. When scouting a college player (especially a QB), it's not all about the "numbers" and trying to find a guy with "wow" statistics. It's all about building an overall picture on a prospect, then making an educated guess on how that translates to the next level. If this year's QB Class doesn't work for you, I don't know what you are waiting for. The last perfect/flawless prospect to enter the NFL was Andrew Luck in 2012. Before that, you are probably looking at Peyton Manning in 1998. Before that, probably John Elway in 1983. By that trend, it will probably be 2027 before we see another QB prospect of that caliber. They just don't come along very often. When you compare this year's QB Class against others, it's clear this one is pretty good. Against last year, I would guess that Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen would be rated above anyone in the 2013, 2014, 2016 or 2017 drafts. To me, it's a toss-up between those guys and Jameis Winston. That's just looking at the past 5 seasons. If you would rather have an extra LB or DT (or whatever) instead of one of the better QB prospects in the last 5 years - then I'm glad you aren't running our front office.

The Bills receivers aren't as terrible as many of you believe. They have just been stuck in an offense that focused on running first (and second), with a quarterback who didn't like to challenge defenses downfield. A receiver can only be as good as the person throwing to him. Kelvin Benjamin is a legitimate #1 target. Zay Jones was a top prospect and is only in his second year. Sure. It's not a group to get crazy excited about. But it's also not one that we need to press the "panic button" over. Get the Quarterback first. Then make sure his blocking is good. Then watch our receivers magically start playing better.

Agree totally with this statement about Sam Bradford's ability. He's a good quarterback. Unfortunately, his health is a roll of the dice. He could go down in the preseason (Kevin Kolb all over again) and nobody would be surprised in the slightest. At the end of the day, there aren't many good options out there. At least, not if you are hoping to actually win games this season. Some people are willing to chalk up 2018 as a lost-cause, since we are likely to be starting a rookie for a good portion of games. Those people are willing to settle for Josh McCown, Matt Moore or Mike Glennon at a lower salary. But the Bills are hoping to compete for the playoffs again this year.

This is an underestimated part of roster building, which has only been true since the rookie wage scale was implemented in 2011. Teams that can land a franchise QB in the draft have 4-5 years to spend big in Free Agency, before they are strapped down with a monster contract. Seattle was able to take advantage of this for a few years, before they were forced to pay Russell Wilson. Now they are purging vets left and right. You can currently see the Rams and Eagles taking advantage of building around Jarod Goff and Carson Wentz. In about 2 years, the window will be closed.

Everyone needs to calm down. At this time of year, 90% of the "leaks" put out by teams is total garbage and meant to disguise their true intentions. The Bills are targeting the Quarterback position. That much is certain. They are not content with one of the secondary prospects who could have dropped to #21 like Mason Rudolph. That much is also certain. Exactly who they are after is a total mystery. There may be more than one guy they like. It's possible they haven't decided yet. With that said... Based on everything I've read and watched myself, the top two guys (in my opinion) are clearly Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen. They reach all the marks physically and mentally. They had very good college careers and show well on film. They can make every kind of NFL throw. They work well in the pocket. Overall, they seem to be the safest bets, while also offering a large amount of upside. Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson all offer very high upside. Maybe even higher than Darnold or Rosen. But they are also greater risks. Allen and Jackson because of their accuracy and mechanics. Mayfield because of his size. No doubt these guys would be strong 1st Round selections, but I can't see any NFL teams passing on high upside/low risk for high upside/high risk. I think once it gets closer to mid/late April, this will start becoming clear and Darnold/Rosen will be heavy favorites to go first.

Personally, I think it's good for the Bills in the long run. 1. Kirk Cousins is a good QB. This keeps him in the NFC, and especially away from the AFC East. He would have made the Jets a much better team. 2. Regardless of what happens in Free Agency, I'm convinced the Bills are trading into the Top 3. That would put us ahead of the Broncos and Jets, so it really doesn't matter if they signed Cousins or not.

I would think that would be common sense. And yet, there is a post on this board assuming we won't pick Josh Rosen because he is Jewish.

Not sure why anyone would be surprised about this. 1. Suh fits the Bills defense perfectly, and would slide into our biggest need (outside of Quarterback). 2. Since he was cut and not an Unrestricted Free Agent, he won't count against the Compensation Pick formula, which Beane is clearly following. As a Christian myself, a find it hilarious that people think Sean McDermott only wants choir boys on his team. The guys wants to win. Yes, he clearly values high character in players. But that doesn't mean he's going to disregard every player that isn't religious or quiet and humble. Suh plays with a vicious mean-streak and has a history as a dirty player. But he keeps it all on the field, and doesn't seem like the type who will be out doing drugs (Dareus) or beating his girlfriend.

I've been very skeptical since the beginning (mostly because I've been burned watching the Bills front office in the past). But the pieces are really starting to fall in place. And what I'm seeing is actually pretty brilliant. 1. The Bills got an extra 1st Rounder by trading down in last year's draft. They still managed to land Tre White, who was possibly the best defensive rookie in the entire NFL last year. 2. The Bills got an extra 2nd Rounder by trading away Sammy Watkins, who continued to disappoint in Los Angeles. The Rams just let him walk, and the Chiefs just gave him a ridiculous contract that Beane wouldn't have matched in a million years. We also got a nice 1-year rental out of EJ Gaines, and could end up with a 3rd Round Compensation Pick if he signs a big deal himself. 3. The Bills got an extra 3rd Rounder for Ronald Darby. Reports had been circulating all off-season that Darby didn't fit our defense and was struggling, and at the end of the day, we really didn't miss him. And we may get another Comp Pick if Jordan Matthews signs a decent contract. 4. The Bills got an extra 3rd Rounder for Tyrod Taylor, a QB they didn't want and a player that many felt we were going to cut outright. 5. The Bills got the equivalent of 2nd Round value for Cordy Glenn, which was pretty good for a guy coming off a major foot injury. Besides, we already had his replacement on the roster in Dion Dawkins. Now we are in striking distance of getting a Top 3 draft pick. At this point, the Bills could realistically move into a position to draft the first QB off the board WITHOUT completely mortgaging their future OR even destroying their 2018 draft class. Think about it. We could trade away #22 and a 2nd Round pick to move up, and still have a 2nd and two 3rds this year (with nothing gone from next year's draft). Not to mention, in the last 12 months the Bills have basically shed three of their biggest contracts (Dareus, Taylor, Glenn). So we could be sitting on $100 million in cap space.

Moving to #12 cannot be the goal. It would make no sense. It's clear the Bills are targeting a Quarterback first and foremost. They have met with, or are planning to meet with, every decent QB prospect in the draft. They already traded their starting QB and have shown only marginal interest in the Free Agent options available. They have been stockpiling extra picks for the last 12 months. In Carolina, Brandon Beane was also part of the process that took a very raw QB prospect #1 overall (Cam Newton), rather than numerous "elite" prospects at other positions like Von Miller, Marcel Dareus, AJ Green and Patrick Peterson. Sitting at #12 still puts us behind Cleveland (twice), Denver and the New York Jets, who are definitely in the QB market. It puts us behind the New York Giants and Miami, who are possibly in the QB market. It puts us in serious danger that Arizona can trade ahead of us. No way that we made all of these moves, then sit on our hands and watch 3-5 QBs come off the board before we pick. My guess is that we will own a Top 3 draft selection well before March is over.