mjt328

This is a great question. Fans have been talking the past 8-9 months like getting "our guy" was going to be a slam dunk, especially with one of the "best" quarterback classes in history coming in 2018. But now that the college season has ended, the prospects have declared and draft order is pretty much set - it's starting to become pretty clear that we are still in a really tough place. First of all, I don't see us keeping Tyrod Taylor. No way. Not a chance. That ship has sailed. It's crystal clear our coaching staff doesn't believe in him. Last offseason, they exhausted all other options before reluctantly taking him back with a pay cut. Then they benched him in the middle of a playoff race for a 5th Rounder who wasn't even close to ready. Now we are clearly looking at draft prospects. Taylor wants to start. The guy took less on the market to sign with us originally, just so he could have a chance to start. He has renegotiated his contract for us twice, instead of hitting free agency. I think he'll just let the Bills cut him and hit the open market. By my count, there are 6 teams (all ahead of us in the draft) who are desperately in need of a QB: Cleveland (1 & 4), New York Giants (2), Denver (5), New York Jets (6), Washington (13) and Arizona (15). There are rumblings about Indianapolis looking for a QB, but there is no way they move from Andrew Luck unless they know his shoulder is done. There have been talks about Miami doing the same, but I think they give Ryan Tannehill one more shot before throwing in the towel. Baltimore is probably blowing smoke, hoping for trades to push more talent down the board. Jacksonville saw enough from Blake Bortles to let him play out 2018. Most likely, one of these six teams is going to sign (or keep) Kirk Cousins. Maybe it's us. But probably not. I just have a hard time seeing us get into that bidding war. Watching the teams who go after Cousins will tell us a lot about how GMs/Scouts see this particular QB class. Either way, his signing will knock the number of "needy-QB teams" to five. Ideally, he will go to one of the teams in the Top 5-6, giving us a much better chance to trade ahead of Washington or Arizona. By my count, there are 5 quarterbacks getting serious consideration for 1st Round status. Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson. All of these guys are flawed prospects. And based on past NFL history, it's highly unlikely all these guys are going to succeed in the NFL. Maybe 2 or 3 at the most. It's also questionable if the Bills even like all of these guys, so you can't just assume they would be happy taking anyone who falls. It all depends on how many QBs the Bills like, and where . Hopefully they see starting potential in more than a couple guys. If they only see that in 2-3 guys, then Buffalo will probably need to sell the farm and target a trade with Indianapolis (3) or Cleveland (4). If one of the top 6 teams gets Cousins, and/or our staff likes 4-5 guys, then we can probably just look to getting ahead of Washington or even staying put. It will also be very important to watch how the veteran QB market plays out in March and April. The best thing for the Bills is for some of these teams to get themselves sold on a veteran option. It's quite possible some other team could weed themselves out of the discussion: It's possible that one of these teams trades for Alex Smith... though I'm skeptical, because I've heard the price tag is a 2nd Rounder. It's possible that one of these teams is happy taking whoever the Vikings don't want (Case Keenum, Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater) and making him a starter. It's possible that the Giants cut or trade Eli Manning, which may cause his new team (assuming he doesn't retire) to be comfortable waiting until a later round. It's possible that teams really like AJ McCarron, and he causes more noise in free agency than anyone is expecting. It's possible that Nick Foles will become a popular trade target. His contract voids after the 2018 season, so the Eagles may be eager to get something in return. It's possible that after we cut Tyrod Taylor, and another team thinks they can salvage him as a starter.

Let's see how long Case Keenum can sustain success. One year wonders happen quite a bit in the NFL. A few years ago, Ryan Fitzpatrick had a career year and looked pretty good for the New York Jets. He followed that with one of his worst seasons ever. The Vikings managed to pull a pretty good season from Sam Bradford last year too. Did the light click on for him too, or do they have a system that works well for average quarterbacks? It's something for teams to consider if/when guys like Keenum, Bradford or Teddy Bridgewater hit the market this offseason.

Yeah OK. Go back. Read it again. The start of the New England dynasty "run" is generally considered 2002, when they won their first Super Bowl against the Rams. I was clearly not referring to the entire history of the New England Patriots franchise.

To me, the entire history of the New England Patriots run has been suspect from the start. Bill Belichick had losing records in 5 out of his 6 first years as head coach. Tom Brady was a 6th Round draft pick, who really wasn't that great in college. To this day, even after 15+ years of absolute dominance, you probably can't name even ONE long-term player on those Patriots teams (outside of Brady and probably Rob Gronkowski) who will be a lock for the Hall of Fame. You would be hard pressed to find any long-term Patriots who even have a chance. Maybe Randy Moss, who was there for 3 seasons. Probably Darrell Revis, who was there for 1 season. Front office people find success in New England, then go elsewhere and fail. Coordinators and coaches find success in New England, then go elsewhere and fail. Players find success in New England, then go elsewhere and fail. What is it about the Patriots culture/system that is so impossible to duplicate? Every other successful dynasty in the history of the NFL has yielded copycats. Every successful dynasty has also eventually been figured out, or fallen victim to players retiring, leaving or getting older. The Packers, Steelers, 49ers, Cowboys lasted literally half this time on top. But nothing has stopped the Patriots from rolling. Not even having a 40 Year Old Quarterback. What we are witnessing is unlike anything that has EVER occurred in NFL history. It's not just an underdog beating the odds, or the natural process of records being broken. It's completely obliterating every standard and limit that has existed since the NFL was created in 1920. People try comparing Brady to Michael Jordan. But basketball has always been a sport that could be dominated by a single individual. Football has always been an ultimate team sport. But the Patriots are consistently unstoppable with a bunch of no-names poached from other teams. It's ridiculous. The first comparison that comes to my mind is when baseball saw Roger Maris' home run record stand for DECADES, only to be suddenly destroyed in 3 straight years by Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds. It was logical that someone would eventually break the record. But when it suddenly became easy, you knew something was off. You knew something was wrong. And sure enough, those players were all using steroids. Even before Spygate and Deflategate, there were tons of rumors about the Patriots CHEATING. There have been questionable calls from the refs coming in their favor since that first season and the Tuck Rule. I think part of the reason people HATE the Patriots is because they know (even if it hasn't all been found and uncovered) that something is NOT RIGHT about what we are witnessing... You can find it all over this message board. You can find it all over Twitter. You even hear players and announcers utter it sometimes. Someday we are going to learn the truth about the "New England Dynasty." It might not be pretty.

This is what I saw yesterday: 1. Nearing the two-minute warning (27 minutes of action), the refs had called exactly 2 penalties. One for each team. The Jags were up 14-3, and driving yet again. 2. After completing another big throw on 3rd down, the refs called delay of game on Bortles. They did not blow the whistle before the play to kill it dead. Strange for a delay of game. 3. On the next play, the refs immediately threw a flag for holding. Jags got sacked anyway, but the penalty would have taken away anything they may have gotten. 4. Pats got the ball back with just around 2 minutes. Two straight penalties, totaling 47 yards to put them at the 13 yard line. Boom, game is 14-10 instead of 17-3. 5. No more penalties are called the entire 3rd quarter, and then the first 8 plus minutes of the 4th quarter. Jags still lead 20-17. 6. Suddenly, another iffy pass interference penalty puts the Pats into Jags territory. The defense holds and forces a punt, but the field has been flipped, and Brady has gotten all the assistance he needs. I watch tons of NFL games every season. Bad calls happen quite a bit. There are many times teams get screwed by the refs. But why does virtually EVERY Patriots game have huge momentum swinging calls/penalties at key points of the game? Why do teams always play totally clean for almost an entire game, but then somehow manage a backbreaking holding, PI, illegal contact, etc. penalty that either takes important points away from them, or gifts the Pats important points? Not to mention, the clearly BAD CALLS that go in favor of New England. Just this season, you have the Jenkins/Jets touchdown that was taken away, the Cooks touchdown against the Texans that shouldn't have stood, the James/Steelers touchdown that was taken away. Not to mention the Benjamin touchdown taken away from us - once again, just before halftime (which is absolutely a KEY POINT in every football game). So just off the top of my head, I can name 4 regular season games THIS SEASON where the Pats were assisted heavily by the refs. Tony Romo's shocked and excited tone did not represent the majority of NFL fans yesterday. I think most of us have seen this story before, and saw the predictable script playing out just like it always does. When the Jags got up 14-3, I told my wife it wouldn't be long before the refs start getting involved. At halftime (after my prediction played out perfectly), I told her that the game would remain close in the second half and Brady would lead a winning touchdown drive late in the 4th quarter. Not sure why I even stuck around to watch it happen.

Kirk Cousins is a very good quarterback. Not as good as the elite pack (Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, etc.) -- guys who can single-handed elevate their teams to a championship level. I put him more on par with the next tier down (Matthews Stafford, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, etc.) The question is... how good is that tier worth? Notice that none of those guys have won a Super Bowl, and only one has actually made it. Whoever signs Cousins is going to have a hefty chunk of their salary cap tied into exactly one player. That means a relatively average supporting cast, alongside a pretty good QB. I'm not sure that's enough to win a championship.

On offense, we need to sign a strong veteran Quarterback who can keep us competitive while a rookie develops. Our passing offense ranked near the bottom of the NFL in virtually every category, and just isn't up to par with other teams around the league. People keep saying we need better Wide Receivers. I don't believe this is true. The problem is not who is receiving, but the guy who is throwing. If we had a better QB who was more aggressive with throwing downfield, our WRs would magically look better. Kelvin Benjamin was a very good player in Carolina, and can continue being one here. Zay Jones struggled his rookie year, but was apparently injured. I think guys like Andre Holmes and Deonte Thompson could be good enough that we don't necessarily need an upgrade. Our rushing offense was 1st in the NFL in 2015 and 2016. We were middle of the pack last year (4.1 ypa was tied for 14th in the league). I believe the scheme change was a very big factor. If we move back to a power run game, I believe John Miller may be a decent option again at Right Guard. We need Cordy Glenn back healthy. We've needed an upgrade at Right Tackle for years now, and maybe we can move Dion Dawkins to that spot permanently. Last year, coaches were forced to play him on the left side to fill in for Glenn. It's also important we get a better #2 behind LeSean McCoy. If everyone is freaking out when a player gets hurt, then the depth is not good enough. Defensively, we ranked 23rd in rushing defense (4.3 ypa). And our ability to generate pressure was poor most of the season. The Front 7 needs to be revamped. Even if Kyle Williams returns (I would like to see him come back in a rotational role), we could really use two new starting Defensive Tackles. I would like to see Lorenzo Alexander moved as a pass rushing specialist behind Shaq Lawson. Outside of Matt Milano, who showed lots of promise, the entire Linebackers corps needs to be revamped. This position has always been vital in Sean McDermott's defenses, and our lack of speed hurt us too much last year. The only thing that save them was excellent play by the corners and safeties. In order, I would like to see us address these positions first: 1. Quarterback (Veteran in Free Agency, Rookie in 1st/2nd Round of Draft) 2. Defensive Tackle (One in Free Agency, One in Draft) 3. Middle Linebacker (Let Preston Brown walk and get someone capable of playing sideline to sideline) 4. Strongside Linebacker 5. Backup Running Back

Weren't we already discussing this in another several page thread?

It's all about consistency. Think about this logically. The more often a team makes the playoffs, the more often they win their division, the more often they get a first round bye, etc, etc. - the better odds they have at winning a Super Bowl. If a team has a quarterback like Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger, they have exactly ONE PLAYER they need to keep under contract to be a yearly contender. Even if the rest of the team is mediocre, they will still be fighting for a playoff spot year in, year out. And based on the current NFL rules, quarterbacks take less hits than in the past, allowing them to play 15-20 years in many cases. Compare that to a team like Jacksonville or Minnesota. Teams that are built mostly around defense. Those teams need to keep 10-11 elite players under contract and healthy to remain contenders. Every year, those teams will have 2-3 key pieces looking for big deals in free agency. Before long, the salary cap starts pulling the team apart. There is a brief window of 3-4 years (at most) before that "elite" defense becomes a "very good" defense and can't carry them to a championship anymore. There is a reason the 1984 Chicago Bears won only one Super Bowl. There is a reason the 2000 Baltimore Ravens won only one Super Bowl. There is a reason people are saying the Seattle Seahawks' window has closed. Yes, it's possible to win a Super Bowl without an elite quarterback. But it's very rare, and those teams disappear quickly. Also notice that when it does happen, the non-franchise quarterback in question is pretty much always playing at a franchise level. We can argue all day about whether Case Keenum is actually a franchise QB. But the only thing that really matters is... he's playing like one right now.

Not sure if anyone has noticed, but Marcel Dareus hasn't even been starting for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He has been on the roster for 11 games (including the playoffs) and has started exactly 2 of them. So the team and coaching staff that apparently values him so much, has him playing behind Malik Jackson and former undrafted free agent Abry Jones. Not to mention, when put on the trade block and made available to the ENTIRE NFL, the best offer Buffalo could get in return was a conditional 6th Round Pick. I was always pulling for Dareus to turn his life around. But it's clear the guy will never take responsibility for his own actions. There was a time when Dareus actually WAS an All-Pro, WAS worthy of $100 million and WAS extremely valued by this franchise. You would think that getting traded (at 27 years old, during what should be the peak of his career) for basically nothing would have been yet another wake-up call. But nope. He thinks Sean McDermott and the Bills had it out for him. Sad to say, but it's probably only a matter of time before he makes another stupid move and ends his NFL career.

Take a look around the NFL. Most coaches/coordinators are only as good as the players they have on the roster. Our success on offense (especially in the passing game) will most likely be determined on April 26-27, during the next NFL draft. Let's take a close look at some of the other names being thrown around: Mike McCoy was ridiculously successful as an offensive coordinator with the Broncos. It even earned him a head coaching slot with the Chargers. Many Bills fans were disappointed last offseason when he chose to return to Denver instead of joining our staff. One season with Trevor Siemian under center instead of Peyton Manning, and suddenly the guy's reputation is trash. Darrell Bevell had been a hot coaching candidate when the Seahawks were at the top of their game. He was considered an innovative offensive playcaller. Marshawn Lynch walks out of town, the running game goes to poop, and suddenly Bevell is a total idiot and the most predictable coordinator on the planet. Did he forget how to call a football game, or did his talent take a nosedive? Rob Chudzinski's coaching history looks like a roller coaster. Cam Newton has a great rookie season, and "Chud" is credited with his development. He goes to the Browns, fails to get anything from Brandon Weeden, and all of a sudden doesn't know anything about developing QBs. He navigates over to the Colts with Andrew Luck, and somehow his QB genius is restored. Luck gets hurt, and he becomes an idiot once again.

Agreed. I get so tired of these cornerbacks tackling like that. If I saw a player on my team tackling like that, I would cut him immediately.

Now that our playoff drought is over, I'm not willing to settle for a mediocre quarterback. When we were looking at 17 years with no playoffs, I was willing to stick with guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor -- because I believed it was important for this franchise and these fans to just finally make the postseason. Those guys had a high floor and low ceiling, and had a chance to get us to 10 wins. Guys like Dalton and Alex Smith do nothing for me. Those guys won't get us past the Wild Card Round, unless we have an elite defense to carry them. Let's do our homework and land our franchise QB in the draft.

The problem with PFF (and any kind of statistic measuring) when it comes to Tyrod Taylor, is that it doesn't account for situation. To make it simple, Taylor only likes to make safe throws. He doesn't throw it when guys aren't open. He relies mostly on check-downs. He likes to take off running when he's not confident with coverage. And when he goes deep, it's mostly sideline throws where a bad throw goes out of bounds. This means a relatively high completion percentage. It means virtually no interceptions or turnovers. In terms of PFF, it means very few negatively scored plays. The problem in REAL FOOTBALL is that an offense needs to score points. It's nice for a quaterback to be efficient and safe with the football. But at the end of the day, you can't have 5-6 games every season where scoring touchdowns is a problem. To be consistently successful as a quarterback, you sometimes need to put the ball in harms way. You need to be able to make that dangerous throw, as opposed to taking a sack, lofting the ball out of bounds or taking the check-down.

Kyle's biggest value right now is locker room leadership. On the field, I think he's become more of a rotational player.

Our pass rush is missing a few important items. 1. Jerry Hughes is our only good edge rusher, so he constantly faces double-teams. Shaq Lawson seems good at setting the edge and containing runs, but he doesn't get near enough pressure on the QB. Hopefully he improves in this area next season, or the "bust" word will start hovering around him quite a bit. If he doesn't improve, we may be able to get by with a rush specialist on passing downs (maybe shifting Lorenzo Alexander back to the D-Line). 2. Kyle Williams is our only tackle that pushes the pocket, and his play seemed to trail off as the season went along. At 34, it's fair to wonder if his best days are behind him. At the very least, we need another DT that can regularly command double-teams. In a division with Tom Brady, it would be really nice to have two guys that can push the pocket and command double-teams (like we used to have with Williams and Marcel Dareus). 3. Our linebackers are totally outmatched and a poor fit for this defense. They don't cover well, which makes it easier for QBs to get rid of the ball fast to underneath routes. They don't seem to blitz well, which hurts their ability to directly affect the pass rush. Outside of quarterback, I think that DT is our biggest need. I would like to see us make that position our #1 priority in free agency. And unless we use both picks to trade up, I'm hoping a good one falls to one of our 1st Rounders. Hopefully Kyle Williams comes back, and we can make him a rotational player with two other studs on the line. That would be a fantastic first step. We also need to address linebacker. Really bad. I'm liking Matt Milano. But I have no interest in re-signing Preston Brown or Ramon Humber. Linebacker was very important in Sean McDermott's Carolina defenses, but was our weakest position this year. Instead of drafting another defensive end high, I would probably make Alexander our pass rush specialist and hope that Lawson develops more in the offseason.

Rick Dennison forced a system on his players that didn't: a) Fit the quarterback b) Fit the offensive linemen It's not surprising in the slightest that our offense took a big step backwards. Many of us expected it the moment Dennison was hired. One of my preseason predictions was that Dennison would be the "scapegoat" after the season, when the offense held the rest of the team back. I didn't expect us to make the playoffs, but that prediction was spot on. With that said, this offseason we are almost certainly going to replace the quarterback. Signs are pointing to us trading Cordy Glenn. We need replacements at both right guard and right tackle. Our left guard will be 35 when the season starts and our center will be 32. So most of the pieces that didn't fit are on their way out the door. Success in the NFL is about matching talent to scheme. If Dennison had players that fit what he was trying to do, there is a good chance he would be more successful.

Most coaches (Rick Dennison included) are a product of the players they have on the field. Dennison is a zone blocking guy, with offensive linemen that mostly fit a power blocking scheme. His passing system is based on quick throws and anticipation, but his best quarterback holds the ball too long and likes leaving the pocket. Yes. This season would have gone MUCH better if Dennison would adapt the system to his players. But in today's NFL, almost no coaches are willing to change their scheme to fit the talent. It isn't going to happen either with Mike McCoy, Gary Kubiak, Rob Chudzinski (or any other replacement offensive coordinator) being talked about. Dennison isn't innovative or creative. He isn't a genius that will outsmart the other sideline often. But give him some zone blocking linemen and a good pocket passer, and this offense can improve dramatically.

We'll see how great Doug Marrone looks when Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson return from injury. Next year, he also gets the schedule of a division winner (Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs) instead of the team that finished last (Jets, Browns, Chargers).

It's not about "not giving McDermott credit." Let's just look at reality. The AFC had three key QBs go down with season-ending injuries: Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, Ryan Tannehill Houston and Miami were both playoff teams in 2016, while the Colts finished 8-8. Those injuries realistically took three Wild Card contenders off the table. Not to mention, three of our nine wins came against those teams with backup QBs. Despite this, we still needed a 4th-12 miracle from another team to make the playoffs. Don't get me wrong. I'm absolutely thrilled we made the playoffs, and ended the drought. McDermott deserves tons of credit for getting maximum production out of a roster, who most people figured had a 7 win ceiling. The team took a really bad mid-season slide, and he got them back on track mentally. That was a huge deal. But realistically, a 9-7 record is not going to get it done most years. And realistically, you can't depend on tie-breakers to reach the postseason. And realistically, three starting QBs (all on playoff contenders) are not going to suffer season-ending injuries at the same frequency. The team MUST get better, or we can't expect this to happen again.

The Bills have won between 6-9 games every season for the last seven years. I don't believe this team was any "better" than those that came before it. I don't believe we got "special" coaching from Sean McDermott. We finally had some lucky bounces go our way in close games, and the rash of quarterback injuries in the AFC allowed us to have a chance with only 9 wins under our belt. It's highly unlikely everything falls our way like that again in 2018. If the team does not improve greatly in several areas, I highly doubt they will return to the playoffs again next year. Despite getting to the playoffs, I expect a massive overhaul in the offseason. We could easily see in the area of 10 new starters across the roster. The next few months are going to be crucial towards the overall success of Brandon Beane and McDermott. While 2017 was mostly about purging unwanted players from the roster, this will be our first true glimpse at rebuilding. They need to make the right decision on whether to keep or fire Rick Dennison. And if they move on, they need to hire the right guy this time. They need to properly address the quarterback position, both in free agency and the draft. And they need to get a nice haul from the 2018 draft class, which they have so highly invested in.

Ironically, this Jaguars team reminds me of many recent Bills teams. Especially Doug Marrone's last year here with Jim Schwartz as Defensive Coordinator. - Very good pass defense, mostly because of a great D-Line and pass rush. - Rush defense is suspect. - Very good rushing offense. - Pass offense is weak, because of an inconsistent QB. The big difference between the 2014 Bills (who finished 9-7) and this Jaguars team (who finished 10-6) is that we played in the same division as the New England Patriots, and it took a month before Marrone could replace the terrible EJ Manuel at quarterback. Talent-wise, the Jaguars clearly have a superior roster. But like the old Bills squad, their weakest point (Blake Bortles) could be the equalizer. Our defense really needs to force some interceptions this weekend. Tyrod Taylor is a mediocre QB, but he doesn't turn the ball over. And he may be able to exploit that defense with his legs.

Hard to know what the Bills and Packers will look like next year. Even with all the players we traded over the last 12 months, I would fully expect this offseason to be even crazier. Most new regimes have the greatest player turnover between their 1st and 2nd seasons. Not to mention our stockpile of draft picks. I would not be surprised to see 9-10 new starters on this team by the time 2018 Week One.

Ridiculous it actually came down to this.

This is why everyone says you "need 10 wins" to get into the playoffs. Bills can't blame anyone but themselves. They had a chance to beat Cincinnati. They didn't show up on the Thursday night game. They literally threw the San Diego game away.