mjt328

I absolutely agree that BUSTS are way more common than success stories. I absolutely agree that we can/should question whether this coaching staff can develop a rookie Quarterback. I absolutely have tons of concerns of my own, and I would be lying if I claimed to be confident in our future success. But regardless of whether Josh Allen is going to be a Hall of Famer or the next Jamarcus Russell, what we are experiencing right now was an inevitable part of the journey. It could not be avoided. The only people who have any reason to complain, are those who argued against a rebuild and wanted to build around Tyrod Taylor. Anyone who wanted us to draft a QB in the first round should have been smart enough to know what was coming. That's why it's maddening to read the garbage constantly being posted on here.

I'm not trying to "prove" the Bills will be good. I can't tell the future any more than you can. The point I'm trying to make, is that the vast majority of rookie quarterbacks are bad, especially when it comes to running an NFL level passing game. It's a huge jump that only select few are prepared for. And when your QB is struggling, it drags down everyone and everything (receivers, linemen, running backs, coordinators) around them. Considering the small school he attended, and the issues with his mechanics/accuracy - it was clear to even Josh Allen's biggest supporters that he was way behind the curve when compared to the others in this draft class (Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen specifically). He was going to struggle and it was going to take time to mold him. We were warned about this long before the Bills were even on the clock. We were warned by the Bills front office in the press conference after they picked him. We were warned in training camp and preseason. Despite this, tons of Bills fans want to see results NOW. They want to see progress on offense NOW. They want the team to win NOW. And since it's not happening NOW, then it's clearly because Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott have no idea what they are doing and need to be fired immediately. This is why GMs like Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley were too chicken-$#!+ to go aggressively after a quarterback in the draft. It immediately put their jobs on the line. They would rather stick with the mediocre-safe option (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor) that maxes out at 9 wins and gets you an early wild card exit. Because the fans have exactly ZERO patience to stick through a rebuild. It's quite possible that Allen busts and becomes the next in line after JP Losman and EJ Manuel. But it's possible that he develops into the franchise savior we've all been waiting for.

If the Bills hired a football czar, the fans would give him until the second quarter of Preseason Week 1 before they started screaming to fire him.

1. The Bills are not trying to build a low-scoring/defensive-based team. That's why they traded away talent and used the draft capitol to pick the quarterback with the biggest ceiling. 2. Rookie quarterbacks almost always result in struggling offenses, which finish near the bottom of the league. 3. Our rookie quarterback was especially raw, and even less prepared than others in his draft class. We knew this when we drafted him. 4. The front office invested in some weapons, particularly Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones. But receivers are always going to look terrible when the quarterback is struggling.

As was stated in my previous post (I know I'm probably wasting my time here)... THE BILLS TRADED UP TO DRAFT A QUARTERBACK IN THE TOP 10, BECAUSE THEY WANT TO HAVE AN ELITE PLAYER AT THE POSITION, SO THEY CAN POSSIBLY BECOME AN OFFENSE CAPABLE OF SCORING 40 POINTS PER GAME. If the "master plan" was to build a defensive-based team and win games 10-7, I'm sure they would have been perfectly happy keeping Tyrod Taylor on the roster. Instead of using all those valuable draft picks to move up and select a quarterback, they could have used them on more defensive players. They could have gotten another pass rusher or another cornerback. I swear. Some of the people on this board are the most clueless and impatient people sports fans I've ever had the displeasure of listening to. Everything has to happen NOW, NOW, NOW. And if it's not happening NOW, then they will whine and complain that ownership hasn't fired everyone yet. It's no coincidence that Buffalo and Arizona have the two worst offenses in the NFL. Or that teams with rookie QBs have a combined record of 8-19-1 this season. It's incredibly rare for a team with a rookie quarterback to have offensive success in that first year. Last year, Deshaun Watson was the outlier. Mitchell Trubisky was the norm. If you go back to 2016, the Rams were dead-last in virtually every offensive category, and the Eagles were in the bottom-half.

"Defense doesn't matter." That statement is absolutely ridiculous. Now I definitely agree the top teams in the NFL are those with Franchise Quarterbacks. It's been that way for 50 years. Not just 20. But that's why Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott purged the roster for Draft Picks, so they could guarantee themselves a chance at one of the top QB prospects! Just because the Bills decided to (gasp) draft and sign players on the defensive side of the ball, doesn't mean they are trying to win games 10-7. They swung for the fences with their QB pick, precisely because they wanted a high-scoring offense. But it's going to take TIME!

Of course this scenario is possible. But it's also possible that our rebuild plan works. Even the most optimistic Bills fans (who are very pleased with the direction of this franchise) totally expected this kind of result for 2018. The team is exactly where most of us expected them to be near the midpoint of the season.

The defensive side of the ball is good. I would argue it's Top 5 in the NFL. Every week, I see people complaining that other Quarterbacks are throwing for 400 yards with ease and scoring 35+ points with regularity. Well in that case... there have to be defenses that are letting that happen with regularity. Unfortunately, this is the nature of how people view teams in the NFL. A 2-4 team like the Atlanta Falcons with a good offense and bad defense is considered an "underachiever" that can't take advantage of it's incredible talent. A 2-5 team like Buffalo with a good defense and bad offense is considered "talentless" and lucky every time they win.

The majority of Dead Cap money came from Marcel Dareus (traded), Eric Wood (retired), Cordy Glenn (traded) and Tyrod Taylor (traded). Those four players ALONE account for literally 70% of the Dead Cap. Throw in Aaron Williams, Vontae Davis and Ritchie Incognito (also retired), you can bump that number to 82% of the Dead Cap. - There is nothing they could have done about the retirements. - The Glenn and Taylor trades were significant in our moves to get Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds. - They preferred taking a one-year hit for Dareus, rather than letting him be a salary cap drain for the next 4 years.

Anybody who has watched this team longer than 3-4 years should have known it could get MUCH worse. EJ Manuel Trent Edwards JP Losman Rob Johnson Todd Collins

The Bills have attracted plenty of top-tier free agents over the years, even when they were bad. Mario Williams, Takeo Spikes, Ted Washington, Bryce Paup, Chris Spielman, etc. all come to mind. Just like when regular people are job-hunting, there are dozens of factors that play into where someone decides to sign a contract (or take a job). Money is usually the biggest factor, regardless of employment field. Cost of living does factor into that. But other very important factors could be: - Comfort with the leadership/boss (head coach or coordinator) - What the position actually entails (scheme fit) - Distance from family (why many take hometown discounts) Athletes have the unique situation of competing for a championship, but that changes from season to season. Fans in Buffalo are very self-conscious about their city's weather. But considering that half the teams in the NFL play in equally cold areas, I doubt it's really much of a factor in where players decide to sign.

Thanks for taking the time to do this. It's an interesting concept to examine. A few things I would like to point out however: 1. Removing the two "outliers" from the list completely defeats the purpose of a statistical analysis. There are only 11-12 relevant data points to begin with, and you are basically removing 15-20% of the results from that small amount. 2. The quarterback list is partially misleading, because veteran QBs are listed by their tenure with a team, instead of how many years they are in the NFL. For example, Trent Dilfer is listed as winning in year 1, even though it was his 8th year in the league. Same with Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning (with the Broncos) and Nick Foles. 3. I find it very interesting that most General Managers don't win a championship with the first coach they hire. The majority needed at least two attempts to get it right (and some even more). However, coaches and QBs are usually tied close together. My assumption is that this study is supposed to justify the impatience over the Bills rebuild. The bottom line is - Sean McDermott is in Year 2, Brandon Beane in Year 1 (and a half) and Josh Allen in Game 5. It's way too early to know anything. The NFL's only remaining undefeated team and most unstoppable offense (Rams) finished 4-12 during Jared Goff's 2016 rookie season. They were DEAD LAST in virtually every offensive category and Goff was easily the WORST quarterback in the league. One year later, they were Super Bowl favorites.

Special teams was a major contributor in a close loss to the Texans, and that screw up on the field goal could have easily cost us the Titans game as well.

Fans would throw a fit, but it would probably be the correct move at the end of the day. You don't reach for need, when a generational talent is staring you in the face. And if you are looking long-term, you only have 1-2 years before Jerry Hughes' contract runs out. Someone like Nick Bosa would be a valuable addition. You do your best to upgrade the roster in Free Agency, hope that Josh Allen develops, cross your fingers that Shady doesn't take a big step back, and go for the most talented players available in the draft regardless of position.

These are all excellent points, and I totally agree with you. However, I think the biggest concern Bills fans have (at least the more rational ones) isn't about our Win/Loss record, but on the plan for Josh Allen's long-term development. The adrenaline stemming from Draft Day has worn off. The excitement from watching our rookie QB make highlight throws in the preseason has disappeared. Reality is starting to set in, and fans are starting to realize how much work Allen really needs before he can become a good starter in the NFL. People want to see some kind of sign that Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott know what they are doing. They have no track-record or history of success developing a quarterback. So when they confidently trot out Nathan Peterman, and he proceeds (every single time) to look like the worst QB in NFL history - it doesn't exactly calm the concerns that we know how to scout QB talent. When we trade away our veteran backup (McCarron), then wait 6 weeks and sign Derek Anderson - it seems like they underestimated the importance of Allen having a mentor and are panicking over his slow development, as opposed to it being part of their master plan. Bottom line... Bills fans want to believe this front office was brilliant enough to identify Allen as a future NFL All-Pro, and have a perfect blueprint laid out on how they will get him to that level. (See Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes). Instead it just looks like they are throwing $#!+ at the wall, and crossing their fingers everything will turn out all right.

Most of the players we cut were gone last year, and we were still competitive enough to go 9-7 and make the playoffs. The reason we are struggling is because we are starting a rookie QB, and he is terrible right now. End of story. An argument could be made that we would possibly be 3-3 if we still had Tyrod Taylor on the roster. But the team that actually has Taylor has already moved on as well. And at some point, we would still need to put Josh Allen into the lineup and let him struggle. If you want to argue that our staff is bungling Allen's long-term development, that's certainly something up for debate. But if you are complaining about our record in 2018, then you never had realistic expectations going into the season.

Whether we pick #1 or just in the Top 5-10, it's going to be interesting to see how the Bills approach this draft. By most accounts, the 2019 class is going to be one of the strongest Defensive Line drafts in the history of the NFL. The top 2-3 prospects all play on the D-Line, and it would not be surprising if 75% of the First Round picks are either Defensive Ends or Tackles. Regardless of where our team needs are, it's going to be ridiculously tough for any GM to pass on the D-Line talent staring them in the face at the top of the draft. On the flip side, this draft looks very weak on the offensive side. There are hardly any standouts at Wide Receiver, Offensive Line or even Running Back. Maybe a few guys will rise into mid-First Round consideration by next April. But nothing to get really excited about if you are picking at the top of the draft. Worse yet... It's going to be really tough to get a nice haul trading down, because the Quarterback class also looks mediocre. And the top prospect (Justin Herbert) could very likely stay in school another season. Bottom line -- It's going to be really tough to convince teams to trade into the Top 5, when the top picks are going to be D-Line and there are bound to be excellent D-Line guys still available 20 picks later. And if we are really determined to upgrade the offensive side of the ball, that could very likely mean passing on a generational defensive talent and reaching too high for a receiver or blocker.

Wish I could see it. But I don't. Right now, I'm seeing Josh Allen struggling to complete anything beyond the line of scrimmage with even the slightest level of consistency. I can't say that for any of the other quarterbacks starting - Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen. Those guys are struggling, but at the very least, they seem to have the basics down. The most common play we've seen from Brian Daboll's offense is the bootleg/swing pass to the right side of the formation. It's probably the simplest play for a quarterback, because he's not forced to read the defense and not throwing down field. But even on these plays, Allen is about 50-50 on throwing the ball too low for his receiver. Anything where Allen is required to actually scan the defense has been a total disaster. He hesitates, holds the ball too long, then panics and either drifts backwards or bails to his right side. To me, this is an area where he is actually regressing from the preseason. He's feeling phantom pressure, and trusting his legs instead of his protection. We are only seeing maybe once per week where he steps up into the pocket and delivers a decisive throw. And even then, most of these have been off-target. For all the raving about his arm talent, I don't think he's thrown a single catchable deep ball the entire season. Sure, there are flashes a few times each week. But they are sporadic and inconsistent. You can't look at his mechanics and say - "It really looks like the coaches are working with him on his footwork." It was all over the place in college, and it's still that way 90% of the time. You should see him making a conscious effort to stay inside the pocket - even when it goes against his instincts. Instead, it looks like he's hanging his helmet on the Minnesota game and trying even harder to win with his legs. Compare how long it takes Allen to read the field now, versus how it was in Week 2. I'm not seeing improvement. Of course, it's way too early to make a judgment on Allen. Several quarterbacks (Alex Smith, Jared Goff) were absolutely dreadful as rookies, but eventually progressed and became very good. Hopefully our guy does the same. But I don't think we need to pretend we are seeing something that we really aren't.

Actually, this might not be a terrible idea. If the game went into overtime, the Bills could just defer and kick the ball to the Texans. Then hope for a quick turnover to put them into field goal range. Considering how the rest of the game went, I have more confidence in this scenario than Nathan Peterman driving the offense down the field.

Kyle Williams was considering retirement last year, and I just can't see him coming back. He's not the consistently disruptive player we've seen throughout his career, and at some point he must realize this team is too far away from contention. Fortunately, with the way Harrison Phillips is playing, I don't see this being a big issue. Kyle will be missed more because of leadership. Lorenzo Alexander is still playing at a very high level, and likes being here. As long as he keeps it up, the Bills will probably just keep giving him 1 year deal. Jordan Phillips and Eddie Yarborough are decent depth players, who shouldn't command big contracts. It shouldn't be tough to bring either of them back. Phillip Gaines and Ramon Humber are replaceable. Bottom line, the defense should be in good shape for the next few years. I certainly wouldn't recommend ignoring that side of the ball completely. But I think we can feel confident enough to invest most of our upcoming picks/cap space into the offense. The exception would be finding a #2 cornerback to play across from Tre'Davious White.

When you watch Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott make personnel moves, they usually seem to have a patient/confident/controlled manner on dealing with things. Even when they make unpopular transactions (such as trading Sammy Watkins), there is sense of wisdom behind the decision. And most of the time, they have proven to be right with how they have handled the roster. You almost get a sense of their "master plan" being slowly put into place. The obvious exception has been with the Quarterback position. Instead of patient, confident and controlled - our front office and coaching staff comes across as confused, desperate, unsure and ultimately lacking a solid plan. One week they seem to be going in a particular direction, and the next they are going somewhere else. Benching Tyrod Taylor for a totally unprepared Nathan Peterman, and almost destroying our chance at a playoff spot in the process. Then immediately regretting the move and putting Taylor back in. Signing AJ McCarron as a veteran placeholder. Then trading him before the season starts, leaving us with nobody experienced on the roster. Putting Peterman back into the starting lineup on Week 1, based purely on a few good quarters in preseason. Then panicking after two quarters, and immediately replacing him with an unprepared Josh Allen in Week 2 - even though you stated to the media that it's possible to ruin a young QB playing him too early. Then suddenly 6 weeks into the season, they suddenly decide that having a veteran QB on the roster is maybe a good idea. What comes next? Cutting Peterman? Benching Allen? Starting Anderson? Signing another guy off the street and shoving him into the top spot? Does our front office even know yet, or are we just winging it from week-to-week?

Our offensive futility all comes back to the Quarterback position. Right now, the Bills have the worst starting QB in the NFL in Josh Allen. They have the worst backup QB in the NFL in Nathan Peterman. It would be very hard to dispute either of those statements, whether statistically or judging by the eye-test. Although we certainly aren't loaded with talent on offense, I believe we have good enough players to at least be competent. The Offensive Line looks worse because our QB is holding the ball too long and bailing from the pocket. The Wide Receivers can't catch passes that aren't thrown accurately, and getting open means very little when the QB doesn't see it. Our Running Backs have no space, because teams are crowding the line of scrimmage. Put even a below-average veteran under center, and we are sitting at 3-3 without question... and we would be a legitimate wild card contender. For the most part, I think Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott have done a masterful job with the Bills roster. This was a project destined to take 2-3 seasons, and at this point we've used 75% of our rebuilding resources on the defense. Most of the resources we traded away or lost to retirement came at the offense's expense. It's not surprising the talent level is way behind on that side of the ball. I expect next offseason to be very heavily slanted towards the offense, both in the draft and free agency. So no... I'm not worried that Beane and McDermott can build a strong offense... when it comes to the other 10 guys. However, I am very worried about whether they have made the right decisions regarding the QB position. I'm worried that Allen was the right pick. I'm worried that he's too raw, and our coaching staff doesn't know how to teach him. I'm worried they are ruining his development by playing him too early. I'm worried that our front office/coaches don't have a real plan, and are just winging it.

The Bills record in 2017 was better than their record in 2016. So...

As of this moment (after Week 6 of the 2018 season), Josh Allen is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. And it's not even close. The other rookies (Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen) all look light-years ahead of him. Allen wasn't ready in Week 2. And a month later, he's still not even close to ready. Instead of small improvements being made to his game, I personally think he's taking steps backwards. His accuracy and mechanics are all over the place. And they don't appear to be getting better. It's one thing to be hesitant when progressing through reads. But he even hesitates on quick slants. His pocket presence is awful, and he consistently bails on clean protection instead of stepping up. I'm not worried about the 2-4 record. I'm not worried about him simply struggling. I'm worried about whether our staff is doing the right thing by playing him right now. Maybe he would be better off sitting the bench for awhile. Maybe not. I really don't know. What worries me the most, is that Sean McDermott doesn't seem to have a solid grasp on what to do either.

Quite possibly. I'm not sure I've ever seen an NFL quarterback with such a weak arm. No velocity. No zip. Everything that comes out of his hand just hangs in the air for an eternity - even on passes that are only traveling 10-15 yards in the air. Cornerbacks keep picking off the same route, because he literally doesn't have the strength to get the ball there. Once Derek Anderson has an understanding of the playbook, it's time to cut bait. I just don't see us being able to salvage anything from this guy, even as a backup. Even if he gains an understanding of the QB position on the same level as Tom Brady, he's just not physically talented to do anything with it.