mjt328

This is exactly my point though. Most NFL coaches will not adapt their offense to a player's strengths. Maybe we get crazy lucky and Brian Daboll is the rare exception. He manages to build an entire offense around the strengths of his quarterback, and has success doing it. Then guess what? There is a good chance he gets promoted somewhere else. Then what are the chances we get another coordinator willing to do the same thing? This is my primary reason against drafting Lamar Jackson as well. He probably needs a creative coaching staff to make it work. And too many coaches in this league are stuck on doing the same old thing. Let's just draft the prototypical pocket passer that 95% of the coaches in the NFL are comfortable working with, and call it a day.

If the Bills are seriously considering trading a high draft pick for Nick Foles, I am hoping they are asking themselves a few simple questions: 1. What happened to Foles and his play during the 2014-2016 seasons? 2. Why was nobody in our organization interested in Foles when he was available during Free Agency exactly one year ago? 3. How much did their opinion of Foles change between January 20, 2018 and February 4, 2018? The cold hard facts. Most of the media saw Foles as a backup-level QB, and felt the Eagles were going to get easily knocked out by the Vikings in the Divisional Playoffs. Three weeks and two games later, he was suddenly a tremendous asset and best reserve in the league.

I'm not going to account for age, because a handful of these guys are way past their prime. Green, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Manning, Winston, Smith, Brees The only time I picked the receiver was with Cincinnati. In this case, you have an elite receiver with a very average quarterback. I almost considered Tampa Bay, but only because I'm not very impressed with Winston. Right now, he's below average. But he still has time to turn it around.

NFL Scouts love size and arm strength in Quarterbacks. They always have and always will. Cam Newton was a read-option QB in college, with horrible mechanics and accuracy issues. Yet he went #1 in one of the most stacked drafts in NFL history. When teams see Josh Allen, they see his physical size and one of the strongest arms in 10 years. Lamar Jackson is 2 inches shorter, 30 pounds lighter and an above-average arm.

Ugh. Another video pushing the racism angle. The word "project" quarterback is used for 95% of the guys out there. Pretty much anyone that isn't playing in an under center Pro-Style offense, who doesn't go to a big school or who doesn't have excellent throwing mechanics is considered a project. I've seen the same term thrown around for Josh Allen and Sam Darnold plenty over the last few weeks. People see Lamar Jackson as another QB who used his legs a lot in college to achieve success. His accuracy is questionable. He's just barely at the height threshold, but has a small frame. It's not about his skin color. People said the same thing (and were right) about Tim Tebow, Johnny Manziel, Matt Jones and countless others.

The playoff drought was a dark cloud hanging over the entire franchise. Every new GM, coach and player immediately had the tremendous pressure of trying to break that streak. And now it's over. Based on the estimates being thrown around, a trade-up (into the Top 5) will ultimately cost us about 3-4 early picks. So the difference between already being in the Top 5 and needing to trade up is approximately 3 potential starters at other positions. In the end, you are sacrificing one season of rebuilding for the joy of making the playoffs this year. Instead of becoming a legitimate contender in 2019, you are probably looking at 2020. To me, that extra year is worth it.

The Jaguars will be in salary cap hell by 2019 or 2020. That team is built on the same model as the Seattle Seahawks. The problem is, Blake Bortles is not Russell Wilson.

Free Agency can be an awesome tool. If you use it right. It's OK to overpay once in awhile, if you can land the key piece that pushes you over the top. But if your team drafts like crap and you are trying to build through Free Agency, it will only take 1-2 seasons before the salary cap catches up.

Teams are starting to realize Free Agency is usually "Fools Gold." In the first week of Free Agency, these teams sign Top 15 level guys to ridiculous Top 5 contracts. Then 2-3 years later, they are doing everything in their power to dump the salary. Trading them for 3rd Day Draft Picks, or cutting them outright. Just look at how many "big name" vets are on the street right now, on the trading block or preparing to be released.

I will be surprised if the Bills make any kind of splash in Free Agency. My guess is that fans will be crying and screaming by Thursday/Friday when the Bills haven't signed anyone. In my opinion, the Vontae Davis and Chris Ivory signings (along with Brandon Beane's comments) suggest they are going to do everything necessary to land some compensation picks for next year. That means losing more free agents than gaining, and prioritizing guys who have been cut/waived over those who are unrestricted. This is the strategy employed by teams like New England, Green Bay and Baltimore. The maximum comp picks a team can get is four. My guess is that we are going to lose EJ Gaines, Preston Brown and Jordan Matthews to decent contracts. There is no guarantee that Kyle Williams comes back and could theoretically sign with another team. There are always lower level guys who latch on somewhere in the early days of free agency. Maybe Seantrel Henderson.

What if next year's Quarterback class isn't any good? Do we just push the decision off until 2020? Drafting a Quarterback high is ALWAYS going to hurt. Either we will be drafting too low and will need to give up a kings ransom to move up... OR we will have to suffer through a terrible season to get into the Top 5. And no matter what you do, there will always be safer players available. The QB prospects will always have flaws that make them risky. There will always be "other holes" on the roster that need to be fixed.

I agree with this statement. The Bills absolutely must get out of this draft with a Quarterback they believe can be our long-term answer. Not a mid-round project like Cardale Jones or Nate Peterman. How many guys they think fit that mold will determine what kind of draft strategy they should employ. If they only believe in 3-4 guys (let's just say Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield), then Brandon Beane better be making his pre-draft calls and be prepared to make a trade into the Top 5-10. Because it's highly unlikely that any of these fall to #21, and I'm skeptical any of them will make it past Miami at #11 or Arizona at #15. If we also see guys like Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph in that light, then we can probably sit tight and watch the draft play out. There is a good chance that someone will fall to our first pick. And if QBs start disappearing, it will be more feasible to only move up 5-6 spots and get our guy. However, I absolutely do not believe we can wait until #53. Not too far behind us, you have New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and New England, who could definitely be in the market for a Quarterback. And if any of the early teams (Cleveland, New York Giants, Denver, New York Jets, Miami, Arizona) pass on a QB in Round 1, they will be itching to snatch someone up early in Round 2.

I'm also skeptical about spending much to acquire these guys. Nick Foles was fantastic back in 2013 when Chip Kelly's offense was new to the league. After a year of film and defenses adjusting accordingly, his play dropped off. Big time. So much so, the Eagles were willing to trade him away. Once on the Rams, Foles struggled so badly, he was immediately cut and even considered retiring from football. Winning a Super Bowl this season boosted Foles' resume. Now half the league thinks he's worth a 1st or 2nd Round Pick. But in reality, we are talking about 6 total starts in 2017... and his 4 of those games were just OK. Are you willing to part with a high draft pick for what equates to two good games (the Minnesota and New England playoff games)? Sam Bradford has often played like a Top 10-15 NFL quarterback. But the guy cannot stay healthy. In 8 seasons, Bradford has played 16 games only twice. Last year, he lasted a total of ONE GAME before going down yet again. He's always getting hurt and now he's 30 years old. At some point, you have to realize it's not just bad luck. Bradford is brittle. Case Keenum had a really good season last year. But where was he before that? He was a marginal NFL backup for 5 seasons, then suddenly broke out when Pat Shurmur got a hold of him. Is he a one-year wonder? Or was this a legitimate breakout season? If I was a betting man, my guess is that Keenum will sign for good money and struggle to duplicate his success next season. Teddy Bridgewater was ridiculously overrated, even before the injury. If someone could please explain what Bridgewater did good in his first two seasons, I would love to hear it. And that was before he totally destroyed his leg and almost ended his career. There is a pretty good chance he will settle for a "prove-it" deal, so he may come cheap. But in my opinion, he wasn't playing much better than a low-level starter before. I don't think you can expect much more now.

Brandon Beane needs to follow in the footsteps of the great Buddy Nix. First, cut every veteran Quarterback on the roster and leave yourself with nothing. Second, convey absolute desperation at every opportunity to say how bad you need to draft a 1st Round Quarterback before retiring. Third, overdraft your prospect out of the worst QB class in decades.

To me, a player is either successful in the NFL... or he isn't. Where he was drafted really doesn't matter. For instance, fans like to rag on Donte Whitner because he wasn't the quality one may "expect" from a Top 10 Pick. But at the end of the day, the guy played 11 years in the NFL. He even made three Pro Bowls. The guy was a solid pick by Marv Levy. The same can be said for Ronnie Harmon, who played 12 years and made a Pro Bowl himself. Now don't get me wrong. GMs absolutely need to be hitting on those 1st Round Picks. Those are the prospects who should be slam-dunks. I just don't think Player A should be held to a higher standard, just because he was selected before Player B.

Excellent topic, and I very much appreciate the work that you put in. But I do think you are missing the overall picture when it came to Bill Polian's time in Buffalo. First of all, Polian was the Pro-Personnel Director in 1984 and 1985. So although he was not technically the "man at the top", he was absolutely instrumental in the draft that brought us Bruce Smith, Andre Reed and Frank Reich. Second, you have to consider how the NFL Draft was structured at the time. There were 12 Rounds, instead of 7. Regardless of the whopping number of picks, this made it no less difficult to find a decent NFL player after the 3rd-4th Round. If you want to rank GMs on a similar percentage basis, then you would probably need to factor in hits/misses on Undrafted Free-Agents for the more recent guys (Levy, Brandon, Nix, Whaley). Don't forget, in 1988 the Bills were without a 1st Rounder. And in 1989, they were without a 1st AND 2nd Rounder. This was due to the Cornelius Bennett trade (which Polian was responsible for), which yielded us a fantastic defensive player who was vital in all of our Super Bowl years. Contrast this with Brandon's draft, where he got an EXTRA 1st Round Pick for trading away a Pro-Bowl left tackle in Jason Peters. Since the NFL was without Free Agency during those years, General Managers were also forced to find veteran help off the scrap heap/waiver wire. They couldn't just throw money at a big name player. In doing this, Polian still managed to land Hall of Famer James Lofton, the greatest special teams player in history Steve Tasker and the leader of our O-Line Kent Hull when the USFL folded. Not to mention guys like Kenneth Davis (Thurman's backup) and John Davis (starting Right Guard). As others have mentioned, you also may want to reconsider your standards for a "hit" and a "miss." Just because a player isn't a Pro-Bowl Star, that doesn't mean he wasn't a successful draft pick. The Bills had an absolutely LOADED roster. So they had several good players (who could have started elsewhere), sitting the bench for years and years. Guys like Ronnie Harmon, Mark Pike, Butch Rolle and Carwell Gardner aren't considered household names 25-30 years later. But they were good NFL players, who stuck around in the league for a long time. And finally, Polian was responsible for hiring a Hall of Fame Coach in Marv Levy to put everything together.

The Bills have been playing it "safe" for years now, and it hasn't gotten them anywhere. They have the ammunition. The playoff drought is over. It's time to take the chance. Listen, I get it. Drafting a Quarterback in the First Round always takes balls. If a team is already drafting high, it usually means passing on a fantastic prospect at another position (such as Saquan Barkley). If a team needs to trade up for a QB, it usually means sacrificing multiple picks in multiple drafts. College QBs face the hardest transition of any position on the field. Which makes them riskier and more likely to fail. And for a General Manager and Head Coach, it almost always means hitching their jobs on the success of one player. If a 1st Round Defensive Tackle busts, fans get upset. If a 1st Round QB busts, they want people fired. At the same time, no position will have the impact of a franchise QB. If we can land someone of the Matt Ryan or Phillip Rivers level, we have a playoff building block for the next 10-15 years. If we can land someone of the Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger level, we should be a Super Bowl contender for 10-15 years. I would much rather shoot for the stars and miss, rather than play it safe and go nowhere.

The problem is, no coaching staff is going to "plan" on starting a veteran for 4 games and then just replace him with a rookie QB. Especially a coach like Sean McDermott. Most coaches want to wait until the rookie is ready. Some will allow them to compete in training camp for the starting job. Some will wait until the season starts falling off the rails. Some will wait until they see something in practice. A coach like McDermott wants to win on Sunday. He isn't going to sacrifice the season just to give a rookie QB some experience. (I realize the irony considering his move last year with Nathan Peterman, but I truly believe he thought Peterman was going to play better than Taylor in Rick Dennison's offense). At the end of the day, I think Beane/McDermott want a veteran who can guide a team to the playoffs while their rookie prepares on the sidelines. And at the end of the day, Taylor still stands as one of the better veteran options on the market. Certainly better than McCown or Fitzpatrick. Arguably better than Keenum, Bradford, Bridgewater or McCarron (for reasons I stated previously). The only thing you gain from cutting Taylor is a little bit of cap space. And depending on which veteran you go with, it could possibly cost more. Keeping him gives you a better chance of landing a compensation pick. Trading him gets you something in return.

As I pointed out in another thread, I think much of this is about the Compensatory Pick formula. The old Bills would just cut Taylor as soon as possible, then sign a veteran off the street and cost themselves a comp pick. My guess is that Beane/McDermott are closely considering their other options. Cutting Taylor realistically gains them nothing, except some cap space. And depending on how much a replacement QB costs, it may turn into LESS cap space at the end of the day. Once free agency kicks into gear, the available QBs will start disappearing. Whoever is left out may be willing to part with a Day 3 pick for Taylor.

Well... I guess it's not totally impossible to get strong QB production on a very cheap contract. Just highly unlikely. In most of the cases you mentioned (Keenum, Foles, McCown), you have bottom-level career backups who were signed to hold clipboards and somehow got thrust into action and managed the best seasons of their lives in 2017. Fitzpatrick and Hoyer did not outperform Taylor last year, so I'm not even sure why you brought them up. If you look at the top Free Agent guys available (outside of Kirk Cousins, of course), you have Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater and AJ McCarron. None of these guys will be playing for anything less than $10 million per year, and most are expecting these guys to fall right in the same range of Taylor's current contract. If you are trying to get one of these guys as a "bridge" - then you might as well just keep Taylor on the roster and save your money. If you are looking to land a crazy bargain (like your examples above), then the Bills will need to replace Taylor with someone like Tom Savage, Matt Moore, Geno Smith, Derek Anderson, Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez or Ryan Mallet. These are the guys who will be signing for $2-6 million per year. In my opinion, all of these players are significant on-field downgrades to Taylor. Not to mention, keeping Taylor and not signing a street FA will keep us in play for compensation picks in 2019.

In understand the frustration for Bills fans. At this point, it's pretty clear to 95% of observers that Tyrod Taylor isn't the long-term answer. But when you break down the situation logically, keeping him on the roster (at least for the time being) actually makes lots of sense. 1. There are basically two options for Buffalo when it comes to adequately addressing the Quarterback position. Either sign Kirk Cousins to a massive contract OR make a play for one of the top 4-5 draft prospects. 2. The odds of us landing Cousins are very small. We don't have the cap space that some other teams have, and Cousins has already expressed most of his interest in Minnesota and Denver. 3. If we bring in ANYONE else, the only purpose will be to serve as a veteran-bridge or backup. That's it. Case Keenum, Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater, AJ McCarron, Josh McCown, Mike Glennon would all be signed as temporary place-holders. 4. An argument could be made that Taylor is a better on-field option than any of these other veteran guys. Yes, Bradford is a significantly better QB. But he has NEVER been able to stay healthy. Yes, Keenum was pretty good last year. But was he a legitimate break-out, or a one-year-wonder? 5. Replacing Taylor would also be a MUCH bigger hit on the salary cap. If we keep him on the roster, his cap hit is $18.08 million. If we cut him, that cap hit is reduced, but still accounts for $8.6 million in dead money. But then you need to factor in signing ANOTHER veteran free agent, which most are expecting to range between $14-19 million per year. So overall, replacing Taylor would commit an extra $5-10 million to the QB position - while knowing that player is destined to eventually give-way to a rookie replacement. 6. Smart teams know how to take advantage of the Compensatory Pick Formula. This formula is based on net gain versus net loss on free agents. If guys like EJ Gaines and Preston Brown sign decent contracts, we could be looking at some nice Comp picks. Signing a veteran like Keenum or Bradford wipes that out, and could ultimately result in losing a 3rd or 4th Round selection.

I know this scenario is possible. But I'm just crossing my fingers, and hoping our new front office is smarter than letting things unfold that way. We CANNOT go into this offseason with nothing more than hope and relying on chance. Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott need to have a carefully constructed plan for getting the guy they want. If it isn't signing a free agent, then it needs to be securing trade partners in the draft. The last time we had a GM with a real plan for the Quarterback position was Tom Donahoe, when he traded for Drew Bledsoe. Since that point, we've been flying by the seat of our pants and hoping things work out at the most important position in football. After Bledsoe, Donahoe had Ben Roethlisberger targeted as his QB of the future. But he failed to recognize the possibility of someone trading ahead of him, and we lost our guy (who ended up being a future first-ballot Hall of Famer) to Pittsburgh by 2 picks. Then Donahoe panicked and traded back into Round 1 for JP Losman. In the end, we gave up more draft capitol to move up for Losman than what it would have taken to secure Roethlisberger, and in the process lost our pick that could have landed us Aaron Rodgers the next year. This was probably the worst draft sequence in the history of our franchise. Which is really saying something. Marv Levy never even made a real attempt at addressing the QB position, taking Trent Edwards in the 3rd Round and calling it a day. After him, Buddy Nix stuck with Ryan Fitzpatrick for YEARS and blatantly refused to even draft a QB until he was ready to retire. This, of course, happened to be the worst QB class in a decade. So he cut Fitz without a decent veteran on the roster, telegraphed he was going to draft a QB in the first round, then he reached for EJ Manuel 3 rounds too early. His replacement Doug Whaley refused to believe Manuel wasn't going to succeed. So he also refused to draft competition. And every time a veteran came in and outperformed Manuel, he did everything in his power to get his boy back into the lineup. I couldn't care less about the "other holes" in the lineup, when we continue to field sub-par players under center. Another linebacker, defensive tackle, cornerback, wide receiver will help this team remain in the 7-9 to 9-7 area. Getting the right quarterback could mean a championship.

Andrew Brandt is just going "against the grain" to get clicks on his article. Is he going to issue a retraction or write a piece admitting he was wrong when Kirk Cousins becomes one of highest (if not the highest) paid player in NFL history? There are absolutely no signs or indications that Cousins won't get offered a huge deal. Journalism is truly dead.

Not sure what the OP is saying here. I don't think ANYONE is suggesting the Bills draft a player they don't like. The assumption is, the Bills are going to rank the top QBs in a relatively similar fashion to other teams. Of course, some teams will put higher value on things like height and arm strength, causing them to rank guys like Josh Allen higher and guys like Baker Mayfield lower. Some may see the athletic value of Lamar Jackson and rank him higher than others. Character may be a red flag when some teams consider Josh Rosen. But generally speaking, you can probably assume that most teams won't be ranking Sam Darnold as a 5th Round pick or Luke Falk as the best prospect in the draft. For all of the grief media/fans give them, NFL scouts are not idiots. They know what physical attributes give a player the best chance of success. They know how to judge a player's mechanics and accuracy, to determine how much work he will need to get better at the NFL level. It's not an exact science, but a study of probability. Despite all the high-profile QB busts that we can all name (Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, etc.), history shows that the vast majority of successes come within the Top 5-10 and decrease sharply after that point. You have the once in a lifetime Tom Brady 6th Round shocker, along with HUNDREDS of Day 3 quarterbacks that amounted to absolutely nothing. The real debate among fans, is how much the Bills should sacrifice to get one of the prospects they DO LIKE. Some fans are insistent that we wait until a "flawless Andrew Luck-caliber prospect" falls in our lap. Some fans are reluctant to part with extra picks, as long as we have any other weak points on the roster. Some fans are convinced that the draft is a crap-shoot, and we have just as good a chance landing our guy in the 2nd-5th Rounds. I think all of these philosophies will keep us stuck in the cycle of mediocrity that has plagued us since Jim Kelly retired. The Buffalo Bills biggest problem is an UNWILLINGNESS to take a chance. Most experts say this draft has 3-5 strong QB prospects, which twice as much as most draft classes. Our front office has 4 picks in the first two rounds, which is twice as much as every other year. We've ended the drought, and exhausted the opportunity needed to see what Tyrod Taylor can offer. THIS IS THE TIME TO TAKE THE CHANCE.

The reports say Top 10, but don't get more specific on how high. My guess is that our front office is either: 1) Doing their homework, but won't make a move into the Top 10 until the clock is running and they are absolutely certain to get the guy they want. 2) Looking to move into the Top 1-4 picks, if they are comfortable with landing whichever prospect is left when they pick. 3) Putting out a smokescreen. I seriously doubt the Bills will make a trade into picks #5 or later, more than 2 months before the draft even happens. That would possibly be the stupidest move in the history of professional sports. At that pick, they have no idea who would actually be sitting on the board. They have no idea if another trade opportunity would present itself. And they would be leaving the door open for another QB-needy team like Arizona to jump ahead of them.