mjt328

At this point, I've done my most film review on Sam Darnold. He reminds me of Brett Favre with his style of play. Darnold is a gunslinger, always looking to push the ball downfield. You almost never see him settling for check-downs. This can be both good and bad, because he also forces things to heavy coverage. This was Favre's style exactly. I also see similarities in the way they move around the pocket, and in their unconventional mechanics when throwing. How anyone can see noodle-arm Chad Pennington or check-down king Sam Bradford when watching Darnold is a complete mystery to me.

Some of the top guys in this draft class (Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen in my opinion) have just as much potential as Wentz did. And Wentz wasn't the "clear cut best" QB of that class, which should be obvious because the Rams took Goff first. The ability of a coaching staff to "develop" a Quarterback is overrated. Coaches can only work with the talent they are given. We always hear about the Bills failing to develop quarterbacks like JP Losman and EJ Manuel. But neither of those guys did squat in the NFL after going to other coaching staffs either. It wasn't the coaches, it was the player.

My brother is an Eagles fan. For years, he felt the same way as many people on this board. He didn't want to see his team "overdraft" players, and was always worried about getting value from his picks. He didn't believe a Quarterback could succeed without a fantastic O-Line in front of him, a great running game and receiving weapons all over the field. So the best plan was always kicking the can down the road, until the rest of the roster was set. Being a big NCAA fan, every QB prospect that popped up was also loaded with flaws. There was always a better option "next year." He just about lost his mind when the Eagles MORTGAGED THEIR FUTURE to move up for Carson Wentz. He was depressed and wondered how a rookie QB could ever succeed with the "crappy roster" and "bad defense" around him. Wentz wasn't even half-way through his rookie season before my brother completely changed his tune. He told me that he could IMMEDIATELY see the difference in what Wentz brought to the table, even as a raw/inexperienced player. Keep in mind that my brother watched Pro Bowler Donovan McNabb for years. And when Nick Foles was playing fantastic, my brother was always convinced he was a "system quarterback." But in less than 8 games, he immediately knew that Wentz was going to transform their franchise. And only a year later, the Eagles were hoisting their first Lombardi trophy.

No, just the vast majority of the time.

And the hits from that same time period include: Eli Manning - 2 Super Bowl rings Ben Roethlisberger - 2 Super Bowl rings Aaron Rodgers - 1 Super Bowl ring Joe Flacco - 1 Super Bowl ring Carson Wentz - 1 Super Bowl ring Not to mention guys like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton, who got their teams very close to winning a championship. If you want to succeed, you can't be afraid of failing. I would rather swing for the fences and strikeout, as opposed to playing it safe and stockpiling talent at other positions.

At least they took the chance. The Bills also really needed a wide receiver that year. They could have passed on EJ Manuel, then drafted a WR at #16 like DeAndre Hopkins. Instead of a total bust at QB, we could have gotten a top-notch Pro-Bowl receiver. How many Super Bowls do you think the Bills would have won with Hopkins instead of Manuel? How much earlier would we have ended the streak with Hopkins instead of Manuel? How many times would we have won the AFC East instead of New England, if we had Hopkins instead of Manuel? If everyone is honest, they know the answer to all of these questions is ZERO. He would have made no difference. No matter how much we crucify Buddy Nix/Doug Whaley for the failure that was Manuel, the complete and honest truth is... drafting him wasn't what killed the Bills. What killed the Bills was passing on Russell Wilson in the 2012 draft. Our staff admitted they REALLY LIKED Wilson, but were just afraid to overdraft him in the 2nd Round and were afraid to trade up in the 3rd to secure him. Here is the thing. I don't know what the Bills draft board looks like. At this point, I'm hoping that Brandon Beane knows what he's doing. I hope he is a good talent evaluator, and I hope he has a concrete plan to get the QB he thinks has the best chance to be our franchise guy. Because at the end of the day, that's all that matters. Adding another Linebacker, Tackle, Wide Receiver, etc. will not get us the championship trophy we all should be striving for. If he sees "the guy" at #2, and just isn't willing to part with the extra picks... it could end up being the biggest mistake of his career.

Desperation is not always a bad thing. Any front office that isn't "desperate" for a franchise quarterback is foolish and arrogant. In the coming weeks, we'll see if the Bills front office truly has a plan. I really hope they do. Because right now, it looks like they: a) Passed on some good QB prospects in 2017, so they could move up in 2018... b) Traded away talent like Sammy Watkins and Cordy Glenn, so they could move up in 2018... c) Settled for leftovers in Free Agency, because they were confident in their ability to move up in 2018... d) Got jumped by a division rival, and are now on the outside looking in. We've had plenty of "cool and calm" GMs, who refused to make rash decisions. Buddy Nix and Marv Levy were two recent examples. They were willing to just let the draft come to them. And at the end of the day, we were left with nothing at the most important position in the NFL.

The thing to remember when evaluating prospects... none of them are a finished product and all of them are going to have flaws. The question is, what flaws are going to be the easiest to correct and which ones are going to be more difficult? A great example is Sam Darnold. In my opinion, Darnold is a fantastic prospect and checks every box that you are looking for in an NFL quarterback. His big weakness is poor decision-making. That's because he's a gunslinger at heart, and constantly forces throws into heavy coverage. At the NFL, this will equal lots of turnovers if not corrected. But Darnold also shows great ability to quickly scan through his progressions and make fast/accurate throws. Which means that a good coaching staff should have an easier time teaching him to avoid the really bad decisions. Compare that to a prospect like Josh Allen. Allen has all the physical tools in the world. But his passes are wildly inaccurate. And despite having great mobility, Allen also has terrible pocket presence and lacks a feel for the pass rush. When pressure hits, his composure totally breaks down. The only way Allen becomes a successful QB at the next level is by having his game completely remade, from the ground-up. That's a pretty tall order.

Out of the five, history says Baker Mayfield. When players fall farther than expected, it's usually because of undesirable physical traits. With Quarterbacks, that usually means height and size. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if all are gone before #12.

It's not good when a prospect compares to Tom Brady. The reason Brady was a 6th Round Pick was because there was literally nothing special about him in college. He wasn't athletic. He didn't have a strong arm. He had a skinny frame. He only showed moderate accuracy and decent ability to read defenses. He was never dominant and spent most of his time in school on the bench. Brady became great because he drastically improved every single aspect of his game. He didn't succeed despite having average accuracy. He succeeded by becoming one of the most accurate QBs to ever play. Most prospects only make moderate improvements once they hit the pros... if they manage to make them at all. Most prospects are like EJ Manuel. The guy he was at Florida State was the guy we saw during his career in Buffalo.

Some of the old-timers on here (can't believe it's been 14 years), probably remember this one. Bills are ready to draft their QB of the future, with Drew Bledsoe's best days behind him. They are sitting at Pick #13. There are considered to be 3 top QB prospects in the draft. Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger. The Bills have admitted they really wanted Roethlisberger. And based on most of the mock drafts, it's totally realistic that he falls to us. But General Manager Tom Donahoe decided to sit on his hands instead of trading up a few spots to secure the guy he wanted. The Steelers surprised everyone by snatching him at #11, two spots ahead of our pick. Our front office settled for Lee Evans at #13 and then went into panic mode. They traded away the next year's #1 pick to move ahead of Green Bay and take the best option of the second tier... JP Losman. We ended up giving up a king's ransom anyway, and still got a lesser prospect. Roethlisberger went on to win multiple Super Bowls, while Losman was a massive bust.

Hmmm. Let's take a look then. The Ravens were contenders for roughly 5 years, before everything fell apart again. That would be from 2008-2012. Flacco was certainly a Top 10-15 quarterback during that stretch of his career. If you don't believe me, go back and look at the stats. And his play during the 2012 Super Bowl run was possibly the best a QB has ever played during a playoff stretch. Since Flacco's play has tailed off, the Ravens have been unable to maintain any sort of success. They haven't won the division since 2012, and have missed the playoffs 4 out of the last 5 seasons. I would say the Ravens are more of an example that proves my point.

Yes you did. There are obviously times where average/below average QBs have walked away with a Super Bowl trophy. But in each of those cases (Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hostetler), the quarterbacks went through "hot streaks" and played especially well during the playoff run. And in all of those cases, the success was not sustained.

Just for fun, let's say a quarterback who is within the top half (let's say top 16) in the NFL. Find me one team who was a championship contender for longer than 4 years in a row, with a quarterback (or quarterbacks) who consistently played below that level.

You can't be serious. Kirk Cousins was an anomaly. Quarterbacks of his caliber never hit free agency, unless there are catastrophic injuries and Top 10 prospects waiting on the bench (like the situations involving Peyton Manning and Drew Brees). His contract means nothing. The salary cap will rise and teams will find ways to adjust to the market. If you think that franchise quarterbacks are suddenly going to be hitting the free agent market in coming years, you are out of your mind And desperate teams have ALWAYS been willing to overpay for successful backups. Do you recall the Bills sending a 1st Rounder to the Jaguars for Rob Johnson?

Building a roster without a franchise QB is not a recipe for consistent success, and never has been. Please give me an example of EVEN ONE TEAM in NFL history who was able to maintain success for longer than 4 years without strong play from the QB position.

How many times do people have to explain this? It's not about getting a SURE FIRE guy!!!!!!!!!!! There is ONE POSITION in the entire NFL that can single-handedly transform a bottom-feeder into a contender. There is ONE POSITION in the NFL that can dominate the league for 10-15 years. There is ONE POSITION in the NFL that can make everyone around him better. Let me give you a hint. It's not a Linebacker. It's not an Offensive Tackle. It's not a Wide Receiver or a Tight End. It's not a Cornerback or a Safety. The Jets can make strong draft picks every single year, and I couldn't care less. Having a strong roster does not make them a long-term threat. At the end of the day, building a roster without a Quarterback is a waste of time. Maybe who they get turns out to be Mark Sanchez, and we get lucky. But maybe he turns out to be Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Ben Roethlisberger, etc., etc. In which case, they will be a legitimate team to contend with until 2030.

What a joke. As of yesterday, the Jets had missed out on landing Kirk Cousins. They didn't even get Case Keenum or Sam Bradford. They had settled for a 1-year deal with Teddy Bridgewater, who was ridiculously overrated even before he totally destroyed his knee. For the draft, they were on the outside looking in. Behind Cleveland. Behind the Broncos. And most likely behind the Bills whenever a trade went through. Now they are in position to potentially land the franchise quarterback they have been missing. I can't understand how ANYONE in Buffalo could be happy about that. If they hit on a guy, they are in the prime position to take New England's place in the AFC East whenever Tom Brady and Bill Belichick retire. Meanwhile, we will get stuck (once again) stockpiling talent all over the roster, only to watch our passing game keep us from actually accomplishing anything.

Unbelievable. What's the most interesting is seeing the Jets move to #3 and not #2. This tells me a few things. Either: a) The Giants pick is not for sale. b) The Giants already have a better offer on the table c) The Giants asking price is way too high My hope when Beane moved us to #12 was that he already had a concrete deal in place to go up into the Top 3. Like I said earlier in the week, sitting at #12 was not going to be high enough. And waiting until Draft Day to make a move was just inviting other teams to jump up instead. I've been very impressed with how Beane has manipulated our draft position up until this point. And maybe there is something on the table that we are unaware of. But unfortunately, there is a very good chance that he was too tentative to pull the trigger, and we just missed out big time. If it wasn't already clear that Cleveland is taking a QB, this move pretty much cements it. They can't wait until Pick #4. If the New York Giants are unwilling to move from #2, there is a very high probability they are also after a QB. The Jets are obviously taking a QB. If anyone thinks Denver is going to pass on a QB they want just because they gave Case Keenum a 2-year contract, they are totally fooling themselves. And then you have Miami and Arizona sandwiching us. Forget waiting for the leftovers at #12. We could end up being FORCED to give up a king's ransom, just to get the leftovers. Walking out of this draft without our Quarterback of the future would be the biggest failure to befall this team has seen in years. Beane put all of his eggs into the 2018 basket. Besides trading down in last year's draft, we also traded away several players to obtain extra picks. Not only does next year's QB class look significantly weaker, but we won't have anywhere near the draft capital to move up. We won't have high-priced veterans to use as bait for extra picks. Our best hope then becomes totally bottoming out for 1-2 seasons, or relying on a mid-round project or veteran cast-off. I hope nobody is laughing at the Jets. A few days ago, they looked like the team who missed out on Kirk Cousins AND the team who would be forced to take the scraps off the draft pile. Now that team is us. If they get the right guy under center, it will totally transform that franchise. They won't miss any of the picks they gave up to land him.

Looking at the "number of holes" is not a way to build a roster. 1. Quarterback is the most important position on the team by a mile. We need to get this pick right. Not wait for the scraps to fall to us. 2. Zay Jones was a top prospect last year. His rookie year was disappointing, but I doubt the Bills have totally given up on him yet. 3. With the blocking scheme change, I'm optimistic that John Miller can come back and claim that spot at Right Guard. 4. I have no interest in bringing back Preston Brown. We can do better. Based on the estimates I've seen, we should have enough cap space to sign a few more guys. The second wave of players is significantly cheaper than the last. We should have plenty to bring in another Cornerback, a Linebacker, an Offensive Lineman and maybe another Wide Receiver. The key at this point is finding the diamonds in the rough, not the guys asking for $7-10 million per year. We can probably move up to #2 or #3 by trading away our extra 1st Round Pick and a 2nd Rounder. After a QB is picked, that would still leave us with a 2nd Round Pick and two 3rd Rounders this year, along with our entire draft next year. Three Day 2 picks to fill out the additional roster holes. I'm perfectly comfortable with that.

Things will start sorting themselves out closer to draft day. At this point, the combine/workouts are still fresh in people's minds. Many of those in the media haven't done extensive film review yet. Teams are throwing out smokescreens left and right. It's hard to tell whether all the sudden Josh Allen hype is for real. One thing to keep in mind though. Scouts and GMs seem to place more emphasis on physical abilities than most of the general football-watching public. Regular fans put more emphasis on stats and "how good" a player was in college. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the Allen hype is real. Although I personally would have REALLY have a tough time trading all these picks and moving up - just so we could take a massive boom/bust type prospect. It's going to be an especially tough pill for Bills fans to swallow, because Allen's scouting report reads so close to EJ Manuel. That's the main reason people are panicking over all the recent Josh Allen reports.

Of course not. And nobody is saying "draft order" magically makes players better or worse. For the most part, NFL scouts and GMs are in pretty close agreement about which players have the best chance of success in the pros. There are obviously some variations between teams. One team may place a premium on arm strength, while another is more interested in accuracy. Another may disqualify a player for off-field concerns, while another is willing to take the risk. Doctors may have different opinions about injury history. But if you could take a peek at all 32 draft boards, I think you would find them remarkably similar. When people post stats/historical data about "draft order" - what they are really trying to say is that higher ranked prospects (based on consensus) have a MUCH higher track record of success than lower ranked prospects. It's just simple math. Yes, there are always going to be Tom Bradys that nobody sees coming. Yes, there are always going to be Jamarcus Russells and Ryan Leafs that are raved about as prospects, then bust horribly. But the numbers don't lie. Your odds are better taking your 1st or 2nd ranked guy, as opposed to the 4th, 5th, etc. If you could take a look at every team's 2018 QB draft board, I would fully expect to see Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen within EVERY team's Top 2-5. Depending on how those teams rank things like arm strength, accuracy, height, athletic ability, etc., I would fully expect Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson sprinkled into those other spots. Of course, someone might like Allen or Mayfield as their #1. Others may have them at their #4-5. But I highly doubt (for example) that anyone will have Darnold ranked as a 4th Round prospect, or someone like Kyle Lauletta as worthy of a Top 5 pick. At the end of the day, if 32/32 scouts believe that Josh Rosen is going to have a better chance at success than Mason Rudolph... there is a higher probability they are going to be right.

I would rather have a Top 10 quarterback and a mediocre roster, than a mediocre quarterback and an elite roster. The only teams who have been able to MAINTAIN success for a lengthy period of time are those with TOP quarterbacks. Teams like Jacksonville are going to max out in 1-2 years. That franchise (especially the defense) is absolutely LOADED with talent. But their quarterback is sub-standard. By 2019-2020, the salary cap is going to catch up and they will be forced to purge a good chunk of the roster. Unless Blake Bortles takes a major step forward next year, that franchise will completely waste the opportunity. That is their window for success without a quarterback. The Colts have a terrible roster. But if Andrew Luck comes back healthy this year, they will be right in the middle of the playoff race. With even a little bit of talent, they have a much better chance at sustained/long-term success than Jacksonville. Until Luck is done, they will always have a shot.

I'm sure the Brown are considering Barkley. But when all is said and done, they will almost certainly take a Quarterback. That franchise has suffered too long without a decent QB to just take what is "leftover" at the #4 pick. It's very possible that both New York and Indy trade out. That means they could end up with their 3rd choice. Unless scouts like 3 guys equally (which is very rare), I have a feeling they will start leaning in that direction.

1. NFL history shows the vast majority of successful QBs are among the first 2-3 drafted in any given year. 2. NFL history shows that drafting success rates steadily decrease from the Top 5, to the Top 10, to the last half of the 1st Round, to the early 2nd Round, and so on. By the 4th or 5th Round, it's almost impossible to even find a marginal starter. Some of the fans on this board are unbelievable. After what this franchise has endured for the last two decades, many of you would STILL prefer to go the safe route. You would prefer to let the 3rd, 4th or 5th option fall to us - rather than get the pick of the litter in a strong QB class, JUST so we can have another Linebacker or Receiver on the roster.