mjt328

I'm amused by anyone who watches the NFL and still doesn't understand the importance of a Quarterback. And by the way, nobody believes the 2018 Draft has a "can't-miss" QB prospect. The argument being made (in the trade-up crowd) is that the higher ranked prospects like Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield have a much better chance of success than guys farther down the ladder like Mason Rudolph, Luke Falk or Kyle Lauletta. And since we have the extra draft capitol to make a move... and since we have a monstrous need a QB... and because the 2019 QB Class is considered weak -- THIS would be a fantastic year to go up and grab a top QB prospect. Honestly, it's not a hard concept to grasp. For instance, if you believe we need a Linebacker - would you be more comfortable filling the spot with one of the top prospects like Roquan Smith or Marcus Davenport? Or would you like to fill our gaping LB need with somebody slated to go in the 4th-5th Round? Or maybe a bunch of Undrafted Free Agents? Obviously there are TONS of examples of Linebackers taken late in the draft who have found tremendous success in the NFL. But if we wait until Day 3 to draft a LB, many of you will be throwing a fit. Why? Because no matter how much you fuss about the draft being a "crap shoot" - somewhere inside you know that Top 10/1st Round Prospects have a much higher rate of success. The same is true with Quarterbacks.

The same can be said for any other position. The Rams were overloaded with picks from the RGIII trade. They drafted some good and some bad. But they were stuck in a perpetual state of 7-9, until THEY decided to make the "desperate" move up for a QB. How many picks have the Browns stockpiled over the last few years? They have exactly one win in two seasons. Making the playoffs does nothing for me. Winning the division does nothing for me. All I want is a Super Bowl championship. The chances of us EVER doing that without a franchise Quarterback are very, very small. I will gladly sacrifice 2-3 seasons of "just making" the playoffs, if it gives us the chance to ultimately land the right guy. Now... If the Bills are extremely confident in someone like Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph (who they can get at #12 or #22), then I would be OK without them trading up. But if they are just willing to settle for a lesser prospect - simply for the sake of keeping picks and drafting another Linebacker or Tackle - then I think they are being foolish in the long-run.

The Browns have plenty of reason to smokescreen. Any GM worth a crap will explore ALL OPTIONS on the table. So even if Dorsey is 99% sure he is staying at the #1 Pick and taking his top QB, he would be irresponsible not to listen to the offers coming in for Pick #1. The Browns don't know which QBs the other teams (Giants, Jets, Bills, etc.) actually prefer the most, except for the lies and speculation being put out into the sports media. Everyone says the Giants are only interested in Sam Darnold. But what if the Giants ACTUALLY want Josh Allen really bad, and are just hiding it well? By suddenly telling the world they LOVE Allen, that could prompt the Giants (or another team) to panic and possibly make an offer for the #1 Pick. Then the Browns move down 1-2 spots, get extra picks and still get Darnold.

Three years. Seems like an exaggeration. But just for fun, let's go with it. Let's assume we mortgage two full years worth of picks. We give up #12 and #22 this year, along with our 2019 1st Rounder and a few 2nds/3rds for good measure. We literally can't draft any top prospects until 2020. And this sets the franchise back a full 3 years with NO playoffs. If that gives us a CHANCE to get the franchise QB we are looking for, I will take that deal without question. Because once those 3 years of sacrifice are over, we are setup with a QB who can keep us in championship contention for the next 10-12 years. Maybe even a Super Bowl. Now consider the alternative. We stay put at #12 and all the strong QB prospects are gone. So we load up on the D-Line, Linebackers, Wide Receivers, etc. Don't forget we still need to use a Day 2 pick on a QB, like Mason Rudolph or Luke Faulk, who have a much higher chance of becoming nothing in the NFL. Our roster is awesome for the next three years, but we can't get farther than the Wild Card/Division Round, because of mediocre QB play. Then in 2022, all of our fantastic draft picks are Free Agents. We only have so much cap space, so we can only re-sign half of those guys. .... And we are back to the exact same place as April 2018.

How do you know the Giants like Sam Darnold? How do you know the Jets like Josh Rosen? Almost everything being put out this time of year is a lie. GMs purposely put out false information to throw the other teams off. Agents purposely make-up interest in their clients to push them up the draft boards. Reporters gladly report every unsubstantiated rumor they can find, because it gets them clicks and attention. Peter King's report yesterday (Browns prefer Josh Allen #1) comes from an "anonymous friend" of GM John Dorsey. Why does King think Dorsey is sharing his draft board with friends? How is King confident this friend isn't totally making the story up? How does King know the story isn't being planted on purpose? I find it embarrassing that anyone in the media can report something like this as news. Guessing is fun. And sometimes you can get clues by the way teams act. But most of the "interest" reports this time of year are a total smokescreen.

Hopefully the stories about him being arrogant will keep spreading. It would be nice if he dropped to #12.

Every move for the last 12 months has been made for us to move up into the Top 3 picks and get a Quarterback. I also think they had a specific draft target/player. Whether the front office admits it publicly, this was the plan going back to last April. The question is... how much did the Jets move to #3 screw up our plans? You aren't going to have Brandon Beane, Sean McDermott or anyone else in the Bills front office say they were upset about New York moving ahead of us. And no matter what happens and no matter who they actually draft, they are going to claim it was their plan from the start. But I truly believe we are working on "Plan B" right now, and much of it may depend on what occurs draft night. If Cleveland's #1 or New York's #2 were available right now, I believe we would have already traded into those spots. I firmly believe the first 3 picks are going to be quarterbacks. Maybe the Giants are waiting to see which one the Browns take. And maybe we (or someone else) can move to #2 on draft night. But most likely, we are boxed out until pick #4 (at the least). Depending on which three guys are gone, I could easily see a move into #4 to get ahead of the Broncos. I could see us moving up a few spots, just to make sure nobody else behind us gets the 4th or 5th QB on the board. I could see us taking someone at #12, whether it be Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph. But at this point, I just don't see anything happening until the 1st Round has already started.

Football is a team sport, so you can't always judge a Quarterback by his wins/losses/championship rings. At the same time, Quarterback is (by far) the most important position on the field. A team can't realistically expect to be consistently good, without strong play from its QB. At the same time, even teams with elite/franchise QBs need to have at least an average supporting cast. When ranking quarterbacks, I prefer to look at guys in tiers, based on their ability to carry the offense around them (no quarterback can control what happens on the defensive side of the ball) to a championship. Guys like Tom Brady would obviously be in the Tier 1, since they can carry even average receivers and running backs to contention. Someone like Ben Roethlisberger would be in Tier 2, capable of winning championship if the pieces around him are strong. Tier 3 would be players like Alex Smith, who are solid passers, but need an elite supporting cast full of Pro-Bowl talent to go all the way. (In my opinion, Tyrod Taylor was a Tier 4 and would never be good enough to win a championship with). The goal for a "Franchise QB" is to get someone in the Tier 2 level, and then construct a strong enough supporting cast to make the playoffs most seasons. Hopefully over the course of 10-12 years, the team can be good enough to win a Super Bowl or two. Anything less than Tier 2, you end up with a situation where you are drastically overpaying for a solid QB, and will never have the cap space to build around him.

Keenum got a "bridge-level" contract. Lynch has already been labeled a bust. Kelly was a Day 3 pick and will be lucky to make the roster. The Broncos are in a great position to just sit and wait. That was the purpose of signing Keenum. Not to be their long-term plan. If the guy they like falls, they will snatch him up. If not, there are plenty of other guys (Nelson, Barkley, Chubb) who will definitely be there at #5.

I'm not a gambling man, but I would almost guarantee that 4 will be gone within the Top 10. If someone really likes Lamar Jackson, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if someone trades into the Top 10 to get him as well. Unfortunately, I have serious doubts that the Browns or Giants are even willing to trade out. (If so, the Jets would have certainly gone higher). Our best hope is giving up a ton of picks to get #4 from the Browns (assuming they are even willing), jumping the Broncos and taking the 4th guy off the board. Even if we like the 5th QB (likely Jackson), it may require a massive trade-up to secure him. Because the Dolphins are still ahead of us and the Cardinals are only a few behind, with plenty of reason to move ahead of us.

No interest in adding another WR, when we still don't have a decent QB. (And things are looking bleak for us doing something significant this year). We've already tried that route, and talent at receiver would just be wasted. Not to mention... If the Giants are shopping Beckham for picks, that should squash any rumors about them "trying to win" this year. They are clearly building for the future, and will almost certainly take a Quarterback. Which means we probably have no shot at #2, and the top 3 picks will all be quarterbacks.

I think Darnold goes #1, Rosen goes #2, Allen goes #3. But the results are basically the same.

There seems to be a pretty strong consensus that Sam Darnold is the #1 quarterback this year. There also seems to be a consensus that Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson are #4 and #5, and that Mason Rudolph is a distant #6. The guys in the middle are more of a mystery, and may be dependent on specific teams and what they feel comfortable with. Josh Rosen probably would be #2 in most circumstances. But I think the concerns about his injuries and leadership are legit. I'm starting to believe the chatter around Josh Allen's potential is real, and he may be the #2 on most boards.

I'm saying they have similar "styles" to the way they play the QB position. I'm saying they are strong in most of the same areas. I'm saying they are weak in the same areas. To me, when you compare QBs, those are the places you need to start in. Just because I believe they are very similar DOES NOT mean that I believe Jackson can't become a better NFL player than Taylor. To look at the opposite end of the spectrum, you have a player like Josh Rosen. His strengths are accuracy, timing, anticipation and progressing through his leads. But the guy is very immobile and is strictly a pocket passer. His arm and athletic talent is very average. In my opinion, he is going to be more similar to guys like Tom Brady or Matt Ryan. I'm not trying to say his ceiling/floor will be anything close to those guys. I'm saying their styles, strengths and weaknesses are similar. Even if people HATE the Taylor comparison, they have to admit that coaches would be wasting Lamar Jackson's talent by putting him into a traditional pocket-passer role. He will be better when his mobility is taken advantage of. I have no idea what Brian Daboll has in mind for this offense. But I know that our Head Coach allowed Daboll's predecessor to force players into roles that didn't fit player strengths. And most OCs in this league are going to have the same mentality. If we are drafting a franchise QB for the long-haul, I would prefer to have a traditional pocket passer, who relies more on accuracy/timing/anticipation than athletic ability.

Oh please. There is nothing "lazy" about comparing Lamar Jackson to Tyrod Taylor. In today's NFL, I can't think of another quarterback he is more similar to. They are virtually identical in size. Taylor is 6'1, 215 lbs. Jackson is 6'2, 216 lbs. Both are excellent runners. Both are very athletic. Both are very fast. Both are very elusive. Despite being mobile, both have questionable pocket presence and struggle keeping their eyes downfield when rushed. Neither does a great job of going through multiple progressions and making timing/anticipatory throws. Both have strong arms. But both have issues with accuracy. Yes, I realize we have a new OC. And I don't care. I don't want to deal with ANOTHER quarterback that needs to have an offense specifically designed around his "special" talents. Even if Brian Daboll caters his system to Lamar Jackson, then what about the next guy? And what about the guy after that? Virtually all of the coordinators in this league know how to use a pocket passer, and prefer pocket passers. The few guys who can (and are willing to) change are hard to find. Actually, I've seen Lamar Jackson play quite a bit. If his style of play, strengths and weaknesses are not similar to Tyrod Taylor's, please explain how they are SO different. Saying Taylor is less than 2 tenths of a second slower in his (unofficial) 40 time is not a great example.

My guy is Sam Darnold. I think he's going to be a star in this league. And I'm doing whatever I can to move up and get him. If the Browns aren't biting, my backup plan is Josh Rosen. I also really like him, but have some concerns about injuries. I'm not a huge fan of the other guys. Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. I think all of them are ideally 2nd Round prospects. However, if I've totally struck out with my Top 2 guys, then I'm crossing my fingers and hoping one of those guys drops to me at #12. As an absolute last resort, I'm doing what I can to trade back down. Pickup extra picks in future drafts, fill-in the roster elsewhere and instruct Sean McDermott to tank until we are in good draft position in a good QB draft.

From what I can tell, Lamar Jackson has a stronger arm. He is also willing to take more chances with the ball, where Tyrod Taylor was very conservative and only throws when a guy was wide open. Jackson may appear faster and more elusive against college competition, but it's hard to say if he will be better in that area against NFL defenses. Taylor is probably most mobile QB in the league currently. Overall, their styles are very similar. Does this mean that Jackson will be a Taylor clone? Absolutely not. Does this mean that Jackson will never be better than Taylor? Absolutely not. But I absolutely DO believe that style will play a factor (and should play a factor) in who we draft. I realize that we just hired a new offensive coordinator. But if our coaching staff was unwilling to adapt to Taylor's unique talents, and instead decided to force him into being a typical pocket passer - then why does anyone think they would adapt to Jackson's unique style? Guys like Taylor and Jackson need the freedom to use their legs. They need to be used on designed roll-outs. They need to have read-option incorporated. They need to have designed runs. Our coaching staff already has a history of being unwilling to do this.

The only guy I can't see the Bills being interested in is Lamar Jackson. His game is almost identical to Tyrod Taylor's. He's definitely got a stronger arm, and is slower as a runner. But their styles are the same. Jackson's abilities will be enhanced by a creative Offensive Coordinator, who is willing to incorporate lots of roll-outs, the occasional read-option and some designed QB runs. That was everything we tried to move away from last year.

Unfortunately, I think the Bills are "stuck" in a bad place right now. And nobody is going to walk away happy. I truly believe Beane had his eyes on 1-2 specific guys, and was hoping to work his way into position on Draft Day. The Cordy Glenn trade was the last step before making his final move. All it would have taken was the Browns or Giants to take a non-QB, and then they could pull the trigger with the Colts for #3. Boom. We have our guy. Point blank, the Jets gave up more than we could (or would be willing to) offer. They went way over the draft value chart, and the Colts lost nothing by moving down 3 spots. Beane can put on his poker-face and pretend this wasn't a disappointment for him. He can pretend we are happy in our current draft position, and play it cool. But the Jets ruined our plan. A plan that was 11 months in the making. Now, I'm not trying to say Beane was stupid. If he only really likes 2 quarterbacks, I can understand him being reluctant to "overpay" for the #3 pick, when the draft is still 6 weeks away. That could have been an utter disaster on Draft Day, if someone figured out how to trade ahead of us. The wisest plan was to have a tentative deal in place with the Colts, but wait until the pick was on the clock. The problem is... even being wise could ultimately leave us empty-handed on Draft Day. The Browns may have flirted with the idea of taking Saquan Barkley at #1 and taking their QB at #4. But the Jets move has really forced their hand. And things are becoming pretty clear that Sam Darnold is the big favorite to be the first pick. No matter what chatter is coming from New York, I can't see a 3-13 team with a 37-year-old QB passing on that position when drafting in the Top 2. The Giants are too smart to believe they can win a Super Bowl with this roster. And they are too smart to telegraph their thinking to the media. There is a reason they weren't willing to trade this pick to the Jets. It has Josh Rosen written all over it. This leaves the Jets with their choice between Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen. And herein lies the problem. Beane can play it calm and cool all he wants. But he KNOWS we can't walk away with NOTHING at quarterback. Ultimately, the Bills may be forced to trade away a ton of picks, just to get the 4th, 5th or 6th QB off the board. Not the guy they really want. Not the guy they truly believe in. Just the left-overs. Either that, or we REACH really bad to get a 2nd-3rd tier guy like Mason Rudolph.

So I'm not the only one upset about that...

When I look back at the Buffalo Bills through their 50+ year history, I think this information is eye-opening. We've only taken 3 quarterbacks in the 1st Round during our history (Kelly, Losman, Manuel) and never taken one in the Top 10, despite being there 15-20 times. Two of those QBs were our second pick of the day (Kelly, Losman) and one was after a trade down. We can argue all day about who we "should and shouldn't" have drafted. But I think it shows me a franchise that has always placed "less priority" on the Quarterback position than much of the competition. Buddy Nix is probably a great example. It took him 4 drafts as GM to finally take the chance on a QB. We can say he was "smart" for passing on Jimmy Clausen, Blaine Gabbert, Brandon Weeden, etc. But he also passed on Russell Wilson. Was he smart? Or was he just lucky? You can't miss on the chances you don't take. But you can't hit on them either.

In my opinion, the biggest hurdle for Quarterbacks is processing speed. From snap to throw, a QB has roughly 2-3 seconds to process where 11 defenders are going, in relation to his 4/5 receiving options. And once the throw is made, defenders close very, very quickly. Ball placement is vital. Many college offenses limit a QBs receiving reads to 1-2 options on a given play, and you often find receivers running WIDE open.

My analysis on Josh Allen has nothing to do with his completion percentage. The other day, I watched his full-game matchups against Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado State, Utah State and Colorado. So my opinion is based on 5 games, which is roughly half of his 2017 season. No doubt, he occasionally makes really nice throws. And thanks to his arm strength, he absolutely makes passes that some other prospects just can't. But on a consistent basis, his accuracy is just really bad. He is constantly missing easy passes at all levels, including his short/intermediate targets. Good NFL quarterbacks are able to consistently hit moving targets (not stationary) between the waist and head level. If a player has to break stride, jump, dive, reach or stretch out for a pass - it's not a good pass. EJ Manuel sometimes made nice throws too. But his accuracy for an NFL QB was bad. That is what I see with Allen.

I've watched several of his games, and I also think Josh Allen is a long-shot for success in the NFL. Another poster said he "accuracy is overblown." No it's not. It's absolutely terrible, and his passes are all over the place. His pocket presence is also pretty bad. He's very athletic, but when pressure comes, he has no sense for how to get away from it. He plays in an NFL-style system, but doesn't do a good job of moving through his progressions. So it doesn't really matter. The bottom line is... If someone drafts Allen, they are basically starting with an empty shell. All of the physical attributes are there. But he possesses none of the natural instincts of playing the position. You have to fix his mechanics. You have to fix his accuracy. You have to fix his pocket presence. You have to teach him playbooks and how to read a defense. This is a long-term project.

I have a really tough time believing the Giants will be passing on a QB. This team was 3-13 last year. Yet people think are trying to "win now." Their roster isn't remotely close to Super Bowl level. Eli Manning is 37 years old. He played poorly in 2016 and then played even worse last year. He's done. The Giants are telling everyone one thing, but they are in prime position to take their QB of the future. And they know it.