mjt328

Not exactly sure what sports writers are supposed to do... Everything related to the draft is about predicting and speculating. It really doesn't mean anything until the guys step on the field. This year, the Bills are getting lots of praise from the media. They drafted highly ranked players, and in most cases got them lower than they were expected to go. Last year, they got mixed opinions based on what writers thought about Josh Allen. The same fans who were upset about Allen getting bad grades last year, have absolutely no problem ridiculing the Giants for Daniel Jones.

The 5th Year Option does not extend him for another five years. It tacks one additional year onto his deal, making him a free agent in 2021 instead of 2020.

Based on where he was drafted (last pick in the 2nd Round and 9th WR off the board), he was definitely being over-hyped in the sports media. That doesn't mean he was a bad prospect, he sucks or that nobody liked him. It just means that NFL teams saw him as a Day 2 pick, while the media was anticipating him landing in the early/middle 1st Round. For Buffalo, it sounds like the WRs (not just Metcalf) just happened to fall in places that didn't work for our draft board. Our first two picks (Oliver and Ford) were easily the best players available. Before we picked again, there was a run and a total of six WRs came off the board. It's very possible that Beane saw Metcalf as good value where he went, but just wasn't willing to part with more draft capital to make the move.

This one is easy for me. Tyrod Taylor. When the starting QB goes down, I want someone who can be steady/consistent. Someone who will manage the game, avoid turnovers and let the other starters pull the team to victory. I don't want someone who will come off the bench and try to be the hero. The reason this guy is an NFL backup is because he's not good enough to carry a team by himself. To me, Taylor is the ideal backup. He's a game manager, who won't blow the game with stupid turnovers. The fact that opponents need to specially gameplan for his unique running ability is a plus... because as a backup, they might not be prepared when he comes into the game. On the other hand, Fitzpatrick (while possibly a better QB overall) is erratic and inconsistent. He's going to be fantastic one week, and terrible the next. You never know what you are getting off the bench. Get him on a bad week, he could throw 4 interceptions and completely blow the season. Get him on a great week, you could be creating a QB controversy.

My guess is that Shaq Lawson gets the 5th Year Option. It's only a one-year extension, at a pretty reasonable price ($14 million). With our extensive cap space in 2020, that amount won't cause us any limitations in upgrading the rest of the roster. He's also shown gradual improvement at a premium position. I think it's a low-risk/high-reward. Unless Jerry Hughes falls off a cliff this season, I also expect him to get an extension of 1-2 years. He's easily our best pass rusher, and not a player who would be easily replaceable. At his age, we may be able to get him at a discounted number from what we are currently paying. Pass Rush is certainly something for Beane to consider adding more bodies to the rotation. But it's not terribly pressing. Both of these extensions are very realistic, and would give us until 2021-2022 before the position became a glaring problem.

I prefer to go by Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as opposed to total yardage. Otherwise, stats are going to skew against teams who are on the field a long time (like us). Passing Defense - We allowed 6.3 YPA, which was tied with Chicago and Baltimore for #1 in the NFL. Rushing Defense - We allowed 4.2 YPA, which was tied with Pittsburgh for #9 in the NFL. In addition, we were tied at #8 for takeaways (27) and #14 in sacks (41). Obviously, these were fantastic numbers for our Defense. Which makes the points/game number (23.4, #18 in the NFL) come across as pretty bizarre. In my opinion, the narrative that our poor offense HURT the defense is very legit. And the stats do seem to back it up. The numbers show that teams were not moving the ball on us, yet they were scoring a lot. This tells me that opponents were putting up points on short fields, and off turnovers. If our offense improves in 2019, this should be good news for our defense as well. I'm also encouraged that our worst defensive performances came in the first half of the season (most notably Weeks 1-2), where Tremaine Edmunds was struggling to gain his footing and the Vontae Davis CB position was a disaster. The team still had some bad games, but things were significantly better in the last 7 games.

The only thing we know for sure is that Mitch Morse will be our starting Center. I really think they are going to give Dion Dawkins another crack to start at Left Tackle. He will probably start there when training camp begins. Hopefully he will run with the opportunity. But if his 2018 struggles start to pop up, the leash will not be a long one. We have too many other options. If Dawkins can't lock-down LT, then he probably slides into the Left Guard spot. What happens with Dawkins will begin a domino effect on the rest of the line... The reason Ty Nsekhe signed here, was because he saw an opportunity to start (which he wasn't going to get in Washington). His versatility is key, and I think Beane/McDermott see him as a chess piece who can move around to where he's needed. At the same time, his age keeps him from being a long-term answer. Personally, I think he starts training camp at Right Tackle. But if Dawkins struggles - see above - then Nsekhe will immediately slide to the left side. As a rookie, Cody Ford will need to earn his place in the starting lineup. I think he starts training camp as a backup, and will need to wait for opportunities to open up. If Dawkins wins the job at LT, then Nsekhe stays at RT and Ford will probably start his career on the bench or at Right Guard. If Dawkins ends up at LG and Nsekhe at LT, then Ford will become our starting Right Tackle - which is where I think the staff ultimately sees him. Based on starting experience and talent level, I think Quinton Spain has the best chance to win the final spot. I think he starts training camp at Left Guard, but could end up on the right side if all the other pieces get shifted around. Spencer Long will probably start training camp as the Right Guard. But ultimately, I believe he becomes the first interior OL off the bench. Jon Feliciano had a great path into the starting lineup in March, but now I think he and Wyatt Teller are fighting for backup roster spots. So ultimately: C - Morse LT - Dawkins or Nsekhe RT - Nsekhe or Ford RG - Long, Spain or Ford LG - Spain or Dawkins

The year with Da'Rick Rogers was the best. Some fans were screaming for him every pick after the 2nd Round (kinda like the DK Metcalf/Hakeem Butler crowd this year). Rogers kept falling, and falling, and falling. People were getting madder, and madder, and madder at our front office for not trading up and grabbing him. He ended up not getting drafted at all, and we got him as an UDFA. People were talking like he was going to win the #1 WR job in camp. He ended up getting cut completely, and never did anything in the NFL.

Personally, I'm of the opinion RBs can/should contribute from Day 1. So if you think LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore still have a year left in the tank (which the front office seems to believe), then a rookie RB will pretty much just sit the bench for the first year. Just seems like a bit of a waste to me. I'm not upset. I trust Beane. Just a little surprised we went RB so early. He must have been true BPA on their board.

Very surprised to see us go RB so early.

The DK Metcalf freak out on this board is hilarious. In a few years, we are all going to be laughing about it. It's not just him falling in the draft. There were EIGHT receivers taken before him. Clearly the NFL did not have him ranked as highly as the hype he was getting.

Well sure, there are definitely variations. Just like Star Lotulelei and Ed Oliver technically don't play the same position either. Some guys are better fits as a 4-3 DE, as opposed to a 3-4 OLB. No doubt. I just think it's "closer" to group a DE like Jerry Hughes with an OLB like Von Miller, than it would be to group him with a DE like JJ Watt or Aaron Donald.

Because 4-3 Defensive Ends and 3-4 Outside Linebackers are basically the same guys... At the same time, 4-3 Defensive Tackles and 3-4 Defensive Ends are basically the same guys. If Josh Allen had been drafted by the Giants last night, he would have been a linebacker. But since he got drafted by the Jaguars, he will be playing defensive end. In the same way, Ed Oliver would have been a defensive end for the Giants. But he will be a defensive tackle for us. More people are now starting to refer to the positions as Edge Rusher and Interior Defensive Line, and I personally think it's more accurate and easier to help identify what a guy's responsibilities actually are.

I think even the people who really liked Jonah Williams, Andre Dillard, etc. were assuming Ed Oliver would be gone by #9. Not to mention, Jawaan Taylor, Cody Ford and Dalton Risner are all still available. Good chance one is available when we pick.

I agree. In all my years following this team, I've ever seen such a high consensus on who the Bills should pick... and then the Bills actually do it. People were actually pushing for us to trade into the Top 3-4 to get Oliver. And we got him sitting still at #9. Perfect blend of talent, value and need. If I recall correctly, fans were pretty happy about Marcel Dareus too. But there were also quite a few who preferred AJ Green or Patrick Peterson.

The experts have been saying it for months. The 2nd Round of this draft is going to produce the most value of the entire class. Over the next 20-25 picks, there will still be several players available who could have gone in the 1st Round. After that is when the drop in talent will occur. Our best move was not trading back up into the 1st Round. Our best move will likely be to trade back up into the middle/end of the 2nd Round. That's the beauty of what Brandon Beane accomplished in free agency, and us being fortunate to land Ed Oliver at #9. We don't have ANY desperate needs anywhere on the roster. Sure there are positions we all would like to add another body. Some may prefer one position over another (and you can see the arguments all over this board). But nothing we should be sweating about addressing immediately. We can stay put and land one of the better WRs in this draft. Or a very good O-Lineman. Or one of the Top 3 TEs. Or possibly the best CB in this class. Don't get desperate. Just let someone fall to you.

I fully anticipate at least two, and maybe even three QBs going in the Top 10. Either the teams already in those spots (Arizona, Oakland, NY Giants) will take them, or there will be trade-ups (Denver, Miami, Washington). QB is too important of a position and GMs/coaches get fired too quickly to waste away full seasons banking on mediocre veterans. I think teams are trying somewhat to hide their interest in the QBs, because they are fearing another team trading ahead. Either way, I anticipate the Bills being in pretty good position tomorrow evening. Either someone really good will fall to #9 they can't pass up, or they will be presented with a strong offer to move down a handful of slots and pickup another Day 2 pick.

Jonah Williams would be a good draft pick at #9... as long as this staff sees him as a franchise Left Tackle. I think it would also signal the end of Dion Dawkins on this football team. If we draft Williams, don't be surprised if Dawkins is packaged in a trade shortly after. Don't get me wrong. I'm a big believer in drafting BPA. I'm just hoping that BPA matches up with our current needs a little better.

Lots of injuries on the D-Line front. It could make for some really big steals at the back-end of the 1st Round/top of the 2nd. Jeffery Simmons was probably a Top 5 pick before the ACL injury. Montez Sweat was a Top 10 lock. Now he's got a heart condition. Jerry Tillery was an early 1st Rounder, then needed shoulder surgery. Until this, Rashan Gary was generally considered a Top 10 pick as well.

Trade down from #9 to #16 and target Christian Wilkins or TJ Hockinson. Trade up from #40 and target Jerry Tillery/Jeffery Simmons or Noah Fant.

If they are worried about "secrecy" - they are worried about someone trading ahead of them and taking their target player. That would almost certainly be a QB.

Linebacker is a position where the starters are rarely subbed out (unlike the D-Line). Barring injury, the starting LBs will play 90% or more of the defensive snaps. That's why backup LBs are primarily judged by their special team skills, as opposed to how well they can slide into the starting lineup. Since the league is very pass-heavy, defenses also spend around half of their time (sometimes more) in Nickel. Our primary guys in Nickel are Milano and Edmunds, while Alexander comes off the field or becomes a pass rushing specialist in this formation. Milano's injury is not expected to be a long-term issue. And Edmunds was drafted to be a key leader on this defense for the next decade. I'm certainly not against drafting another LB in the mid-rounds for depth. But it's not a position we desperately need. It's a luxury. If we use a high pick one, he will play less than 25 percent of snaps his rookie season, and will basically be fighting for reps against Milano/Edmunds/D-Line going forward.

This regime has been very stingy at leaking information. I doubt anyone outside the front office's inner circle knows more than 2-3 weeks ago. I'm a believer that actions speak louder than words. And what I've been seeing from One Bills Drive makes me doubt OL or WR at #9. When free agency started last month, Brandon Beane already knew what this draft class looked like. He and the scouts had been studying it for over 12 months. He knew which positions were deep. He knew which positions were strong. He knew which positions were weak. And yes, he already had a pretty good idea which 4-5 guys may be BPA at the #9 slot. With that in mind, he signed a whopping SIX offensive linemen - any of whom could end up in the starting lineup. He signed FOUR wide receivers, including two who are expected to get significant offensive snaps. He signed TWO potential starting corners to play opposite Tre White. At the same time, he made absolutely no effort to address the 3-Tech position despite losing Kyle Williams to retirement. Although he showed clear interest in upgrading the pass rush (specifically Ezekiel Ansah), he never actually signed anyone. And after releasing Charles Clay, neither of his tight end signings can be considered dependable starters. All signs point to us targeting a DT, TE and Edge rusher in the early rounds.

But what do we need with another $6.4 million in cap space for this year? We currently have over $30 million left. And once the draft is over, the roster is pretty much full. At this point, Yeldon didn't have much choice. He obviously wasn't a priority free agent. He wasn't going to get a starting job from anyone. And in less than a week, the league will be overloaded with dozens of shiny-new rookie RBs. If he waited too long, he may have been without a job until August or September. Just two years ago, Shady was still one of the league's best RBs. Maybe he lost a step. But I don't know how anyone could make that assessment, considering how bad our blocking was. We don't need another Day 3 pick. We don't need more cap space. It makes more sense to keep him and cross our fingers that 2018 was an anomaly, due to our poor O-Line.

It's mid-April. Nobody was signing TJ Yeldon as anything more than a backup. The staff has made it pretty clear, both in the way they talk about Shady and with their actions regarding the roster. They believe the O-Line was the problem last year, and he still has plenty of gas left in the tank. Besides, Shady's trade value is virtually nothing at this point. We would be lucky to fetch a 4th-5th Rounder. It would be better to gamble on him rebounding, and then addressing the RB position next year.