mjt328

First of all, highest paid does not equal greatness. Having a franchise QB is just the starting point, and easily the most important piece on an NFL team. Of course the other positions matter. But if you don't have a good QB (as displayed by our franchise over the last 2 decades), then you are starting so far behind that you almost need to have everything fall perfect to even have a chance at competing for a championship.

As long as they re-sign Jordan Phillips, the Bills still have a pretty good rotation on the D-Line. DT - Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, Jordan Phillips DE - Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Trent Murphy Getting Lorenzo Alexander back for another season would also help, since he can slide into the rotation as an outside pass rusher. So if the Bills don't add another DT to replace Kyle Williams, it won't be the end of the world. However it does give them some justification (at least in the eyes of many fans who are dead-set on offense), if they decide to go that route in Round 1 instead. In the draft, it's always best to go with BPA regardless of position. You can't build a team with just "the next year" in mind. Like I've said before... This is the crucial year for Beane/McDermott's rebuilding plan. They have some strong cornerstones to build around. They have the resources available. Now it's about making the right decisions and obtaining the right players.

Look through the top teams in the NFL. Saints, Rams, Chiefs, Patriots, etc. None of those teams are without flaws. All have weak positions that need to be upgraded. Bottom line, the Bills don't need to have 22 top starters and 31 top backups in order to join these franchises. Now looking through your list... You really believe we need THREE new wide receivers and TWO new running backs just to be "competitive"? You really think our current defense (ranked #2) cannot compete without upgrades at linebacker, cornerback and defensive line? Maybe I don't understand your definition of the word competitive. Everyone needs to overpay for the quality, top-tier free agents. That's just the way free agency works. At least we have the dollars to invest this year. We've gotten some valuable contributions from free agents like Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer in recent years (even without being overly aggressive), so why is it totally unbelievable to think we can get some help this year? The Bills are going to win 5-6 games, in a season where Nathan Peterman (possibly the worst QB ever to step on an NFL field) started twice and Derek Anderson (only signed to hold a clipboard) started twice. We were also a finger-tip catch away from another victory in Miami. We basically punted away a quarter of our games, then spent the rest of our season developing a rookie QB. Now let's say we get the post-bye Josh Allen for a full 16 games next year, instead of the quarterback mess we experienced in 2018. And let's say we are successful in upgrading just a couple positions along the O-Line with solid veterans, so we are just "average" instead of "terrible." And let's say we add maybe 1-2 more decent receiving weapons, and draft a younger running back to replace Shady. Is it really totally UNREALISTIC to think the Bills could win 10-11 games in 2019 (which could win them the AFC East), with just a handful of upgrades on the offensive side of the ball? I don't think so.

I'm sure that Beane will explore trade options, but I don't see us moving too many picks. He knows the importance of building a roster through the draft, and we only have so many selections. This regime has done a pretty good job of drafting so far, and their biggest mistake (Kelvin Benjamin) was trading a pick for a veteran player. I don't know why Bills fans get so self-conscious when it comes to Free Agency. They always whine that "nobody wants to play in Buffalo" when history shows that big-name free agents have always been willing to sign here, when we had the money to offer. And when it comes to the top Day 1 free agents, there is always a bidding war to overpay for their services.

So your theory is: Josh Allen knows he doesn't have the accuracy to hit a 5 yard pass, so he always goes for the 20 yard pass instead? Now it's certainly possible that he's often going for the "big play" instead of the "correct play" - and it will be important for his development to get better at these decisions. However, it will be a lot easier to get an overly aggressive QB to make some check-downs sometimes, than getting a timid/tentative QB to start pushing the ball downfield.

How many people are going to respond without actually clicking on the link... It's always important to consider how players/positions are supposed to be used in a defensive scheme. In Sean McDermott's system, it's vitally important to have playmaking linebackers who can read plays quickly and get to the right gap. Star is basically a space-eater, who commands double-teams and allows those linebackers room to make plays. Matt Milano is already becoming a star in this scheme. His loss (along with Tremaine Edmunds having his rookie struggles) was the main reason for our run defense falling apart on Sunday.

This is a great point. There are many different levels of accuracy in the NFL. It's not just "accurate" or "inaccurate." I think Josh Allen's game is most comparable to Ben Roethlisberger/Cam Newton. And like you said, both are guys who have had good to great NFL success without the benefit of fantastic passing accuracy. Notice that Roethlisberger has always been surrounded by incredible WRs, strong running games and a solid offensive line. Newton has had good running backs, but some pretty average/below average receivers and questionable blocking help. Let's hope that our Carolina-based front office builds an offense closer to the Steelers than the Panthers. Agreed. Sam Darnold was my favorite QB of the draft, and I was upset to see the Jets land him. Based on what we've seen this year, the future of the AFC East just may be the Jets/Bills.

Interesting that the original post didn't include this tidbit from the PFF article: As I've mentioned before, almost every time Allen drops back into the pocket, he's being asked to make downfield throws. It's the complete opposite of most other NFL offenses, which rely on constant check-downs and quick/easy passes. This is going to have a major effect on his completion percentage, at every measurable level. I've been watching this team for over 30 years now. I've been through Todd Collins, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor and every other terrible starter we've squeezed in between those guys. I know what bad quarterbacks look like, and there wasn't a moment that I truly felt optimistic about any of our younger QBs developing into anything special. I feel optimism about Allen. People can throws "statistics" at me all day. I watch the games. I see a play-action based offense that can't run the ball. I see a downfield passing attack with an offensive line that can't hold a block longer than 1-2 seconds. I see a group of wide receivers who rarely get open, constantly drop passes and never make plays on the ball. This is a situation that would have most veterans shell-shocked. But the rookie QB (who was supposed to be a major project and totally unprepared to play in the NFL) came back after the bye week, and is putting the offense on his back.

The problem with our receivers is that none of them can really CATCH. Watch other NFL games and you will be constantly amazed how other NFL receivers can adjust and come down with passes - even when they need to stretch-out, jump, dive or tip-toe on the sidelines. And I'm not just talking about guys like Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham or Julio Jones. I'm talking about the regular/dime-a-dozen guys in this league. This season has been brutal to watch from the WR perspective. Kelvin Benjamin was the most pathetic excuse for a big-man/jump-ball specialist I've ever seen. He couldn't beat out guys 6 inches shorter than him. Robert Foster has made some nice plays, but he still loses track of deep balls in the air. Zay Jones seems to drop at least one pass every week.

To me, it doesn't matter what a WR's physical makeup is like (size, speed, etc.) His job is to get open and catch the ball. Zay Jones made some big strides this season with his route running, and he's doing a much better job of getting open. But he's still got some big problems with drops (just like everyone else on the Buffalo roster), and so far he's not the kind of player we can count on for the "difficult" catches. In the offseason, I think Jones needs to work on improving his hands. If he doesn't get better at catching the ball, I just don't see him ever becoming a starting caliber WR in this league.

We are starting to see Tom Brady show his age, and his passing ability is clearly trending down. Assuming this isn't injury related, age is something a player can't just work around. He's going to get worse, not better. Consider this. Brady was not a factor in the Patriots beating the Bills in either game this year. We lost the first game because of Derek Anderson sucking, and the second game because of our run defense.

- He was very slow reading a defense and checked-down way too often - His way of avoiding the pass rush was doing a backwards spin move, which usually resulted in an extra 5-10 yards lost on the sack - His throwing mechanics were awful, resulting in terrible accuracy - His play resulted in way too many turnovers, both with interceptions and fumbles Honestly, there was nothing about EJ Manuel that ever impressed me. He had a few OK games during first month of his rookie year, but then it was all downhill after that point. You would get a decent throw occasionally (maybe every 2-3 games), surrounded by the unending 4-yard passes on 3rd and long, the high misfires over the middle almost getting our receivers injured, and his pathetic/failed attempts to avoid pass rushers. He had a strong running game to support him. He had good wide receivers. He had a decent O-Line. But he was always the weakest link, dragging an otherwise playoff-caliber team down. I don't think anything "went wrong" with Manuel. Teams figured out pretty quickly what he struggled with the most (there were a lot of things), and he never improved his game. He never got better at reading defenses, never got better with his mechanics/accuracy and always panicked under pressure. Although I do agree that our coaching staff gave up too quickly (considering he was a 1st Round Pick, only a month into his second season), time eventually proved them right. EJ has gotten opportunities and failed to do anything with them. Even if there are some similar rookie stats between Manuel and Josh Allen, the comparisons pretty much stop there. The difference between the two guys is like night and day. Where Manuel never really progressed after his senior year at Florida State, you can easily see a trend of improvement with Allen in all aspects of his game (mechanics, pocket presence, accuracy, etc.). Where Manuel had good surrounding talent, Allen is pretty much carrying the offense by himself.

Tremaine Edmunds was dreadful today (as was the D-Line and his partner Corey Thompson). But as usual, we have those who want to turn this game observation into a total overblown overreaction. I feel like I say this 150 times every season about first year players, but Edmunds is a R-O-O-K-I-E. The idea that MLBs always play great immediately is garbage. The idea he can't improve his instincts is garbage. The idea that he can't bulk up, get stronger and get better at shedding blocks is garbage. Will he? I don't know. But neither does anyone else.

Solid move. We've only seen Matt Barkley in this offense once, but that's more than any other backup we can find on the market (other than Taylor and Peterman). And his performance in that game was better than anyone could possibly have expected.

The best way to build a roster is through the draft, and then using free agency to just fill in the gaps. And the best way to draft is to go with the "Best Player Available" - rather than pass guys over or reach too early for prospects at position of need. If you consider the size of an NFL roster, average contract lengths and resources available - a GM can only realistically address about 25% of a roster in a single year. Assuming you count the 2017 offseason (which Sean McDermott basically ran), this regime has only been able to "fix" about half of the roster so far. I think Brandon Beane definitely understands this concept. The problem is, the 50% of the roster he's managed to address so far is almost exclusively on the defensive side of the ball. If he digs in his heels and stubbornly refuses to go anywhere but offense, he's more likely to make bad decisions in the draft. But if he doesn't make a point to target the weak spots on the roster, he will be pushing this rebuild into another season before we can get competitive. The key to this offseason is being aggressive (and hopefully successful) in addressing most of our needs in Free Agency. Offensive Tackle is a must. Center is a must. At least one Guard spot is a must. Wide Receiver is a must. Running Back, Tight End and Cornerback are pretty close to must-needs. It's a pretty tall order for Beane. But the more spots he fills before the draft, the more flexible we are to get the best player when our picks are on the clock.

Great O-Lines don't last long, mostly because teams don't prioritize drafting that position high or keeping those players in free agency. There is a lot of pressure to draft/keep the STAR running backs and receivers, when it's usually much smarter to spend that money on the O-Line. You watch what happens if Beane/McDermott focus on repairing the O-Line first this offseason, and don't go after a #1 receiver. Fans are going to pitch a fit.

Not sure how anyone could say the O-Line is "slowly coming together"... The only guy I would say is a guarantee to return to the starting lineup in 2019 is Dion Dawkins, and many are advocating for a position change due to his struggles this season. I know there are hopes Wyatt Teller becomes something someday, but he's not shown enough yet to feel confident with him going into the offseason. We have enough resources to overhaul this group in the offseason, and I hope that is the plan.

It goes to show... style does not matter. All that matters is production and wins. The NFL has success stories with downfield gunslingers and efficient guys who pick defenses apart with the short-game. There are success stories with immobile pocket passers and mobile guys who make plays outside the hash marks.

Agree 100%. The most important position is Quarterback. But having a good O-Line will make both the running game and passing game better - and can help avoid injuries to that franchise QB.

He is not wrong. Josh Allen is definitely progressing as a passer. But he's not there yet. If I was a defensive coordinator facing him on Sunday, my strategy would be to keep him in the pocket and limit the damage he can do on the ground. At this point, he's less dangerous with his arm than with his legs, and more prone to mistakes/turnovers. Just like the blueprint to "beat" Tom Brady has always been to get pressure up the middle from the front 4, then play strong press coverage on the back-end. That doesn't mean that every team trying to employ this strategy will be successful against the Patriots. It just means that you have a better chance playing this way, than with blitzing and playing a soft zone.

I'm not really talking about short "timing" throws like slants, screens, curls and picks. I'm talking more about the easy check-downs, like a dump-off to the running back when the initial downfield reads are covered. You know... the Trent Edwards/EJ Manual type throws don't require a ton of skill or accuracy. Those are the types of passes that guys like Sam Darnold are living off right now. Watch a Jets game, and check-down throws are easily accounting for at least 75-80% of his completions. But watch a Bills game, and you aren't seeing the check-downs from Allen at all. His only short throws are designed screens and quick-hitters behind the line of scrimmage (usually to McKenzie).

One of the things I notice about Josh Allen's development (especially compared to other rookie QBs) is the lack of check-down and short passes in our offense. The vast majority of his throws are 10-15+ yards downfield. This is a significant factor in his "accuracy and completion percentage problems" which Allen's detractors are not considering. Part of this may be due to Allen having a "gunslinger mentality" and always going for the big play. But I also notice that because of the offensive line problems, our RBs and TEs are often forced to stay and provide extra blocking help. Which means they can't slip out for a quick check-down. Leaving most of Allen's options on farther downfield routes. When you factor in the ridiculously poor blocking, the lack of easy throws available, the multitude of dropped passes by his receivers and the huge learning curve in going from Wyoming to the NFL - an observer can't help but realize the trial-by-fire that Allen has been dropped into. It's hard to imagine him playing in a tougher situation at any point in the future.

I realize that both units have struggled badly the last 2 years. I'm just not convinced that coaching is the problem. Last year, pretty much everyone knew the O-Line was going to take a step-backwards immediately after word broke that Castillo was hired. Not because he was a historically bad coach. But because he ran a zone blocking scheme which didn't fit the skills of our players. We knew it was going to be even worse this year, since we lost our three best lineman in the offseason (Wood, Incognito and Glenn) and did absolutely nothing to replace them. I'll be honest, and say I really don't know what is going on with special teams. They have been a disaster everywhere. But why is it automatically Crossman's fault when we have a bad punt, a missed field goal or a block-in-the-back penalty?

3000 yard seasons were VERY rare until the late 70s and early 80s. Until about 10 years ago, they were pretty much exclusive to the NFL's top passers. Today, hitting the 3000 yard mark is standard for anyone who plays a full 16-game schedule. Considering the Bills have only had one-true franchise QB in the last 40 years (Jim Kelly who played during the 80s and 90s), it shouldn't be surprising that we are way behind the curve. Guys like Drew Brees and Tom Brady have played their entire careers during the pass-happy years.

He's not wrong. The Bills D-Line is full of good/solid players, but nobody I would consider overly impressive. Especially with Kyle Williams well past his prime. That doesn't mean the Bills have a bad D-Line, or that it's a problem area.