mjt328

It's important to keep in mind what our coaches are trying to do. They are building a puzzle (which is going to be different than other teams), and we need strong pieces that fit into their scheme and system. Don't worry so much about snap percentage. Sean McDermott's defense is built on a heavy rotation of defensive linemen. He doesn't send a lot of blitzes, so he likes to have front rushers fresh. And he likes to adjust personnel depending on how the offense is attacking. Last year, we had a 4-man rotation at DT between Star Lotulelei, Kyle Williams, Harrison Phillips and Jordan Phillips. We lost Williams and don't have anyone on the roster who is a pure 3-Tech. It's a huge need. And to my knowledge, there haven't even been rumors of us showing interest in a DT replacement on the free agent market. On the offense side, our coordinator Brian Daboll seems to be heavily influenced by the Patriots. He doesn't want our quarterback zeroing in a primary target, like you may see in Cincinnati with AJ Green. He wants his quarterback to identify the matchups, and utilize all of his targets on the field. Based on comments from both McDermott and Brandon Beane, I think they have the same philosophy on offense. We may not have a single #1 guy who will get you 1300 yards and 10 touchdowns. But Cole Beasley is one of the best slot receivers in the NFL. John Brown is one of the better deep threats. When you add up everyone's skills, you should have enough talent to be dangerous on offense (assuming Josh Allen develops into the QB we need him to be). With that said, I definitely could see us targeting a tight end high in this draft.

All of the signs are pointing to us going D-Line in the first round. I just don't see us taking a WR that early anymore. Based on free agency, this is starting to become a numbers game with the roster. The majority of NFL teams only keep 6 wide receivers. We may make an exception and go with 7 because of Andre Roberts being a returner. Either way... out of that group you are only going to see 3-4 guys get significant snaps on offense (barring injury). - They haven't been pursuing John Brown for two offseasons, just so he can sit the bench. - You can guarantee Cole Beasley is going to be our top slot receiver and will get a bunch of targets. - Robert Foster earned his way into a good chunk of playing time last year. - Zay Jones has shown progress, and will certainly get one more season to prove himself. Drafting a WR high pushes one of these other guys down the lineup, and gets them virtually no snaps. So either you signed guys in free agency for no reason, or you give young/developing guys no chance. Nobody sitting in the #5 slot is going to see more than 15-20 targets on the season. Now, I know that some people are hugely critical of Zay Jones and have already given up on him, but I don't think the coaching staff is there yet. Maybe he loses playing time by mid-season if he fails to get better. But if you draft a rookie at #9, then you are basically signaling Jone's time in Buffalo is already over.

Let's see what happens in the draft first. But I'm leaning towards yes. He's clearly an improving player. We have plenty of cap space again next season, and the option is basically just tacking one season onto his contract. If he doesn't get any better or declines, we are basically stuck overpaying him for one season. Not a big deal.

It's a little early, since we haven't had the draft yet. Lots could still change. But let's try anyway. I always try tackling the schedule from a few different angles. Based purely on last year's results, the Bills will play 7 games against teams with winning records in 2018 (NE x 2, BAL, PIT, TEN, DAL, PHI). They will play 9 games against teams with losing records (MIA x2, NYJ x 2, CIN, CLE, DEN, WAS, NYG). They will play 5 games against teams who finished with the same or worse records than us at 6-10 (NYJ x 2, CIN, DEN, NYG). Based solely on my own personal roster assessments (no scientific evidence), I anticipate NE, PIT and MIA to be marginally worse next season. I also anticipate NYJ and CLE to be better next season. I consider BAL to be a total wildcard, depending on the development of Lamar Jackson. The other teams appear on the surface to be roughly the same as last season. Depending on the draft results, we could face up to 5 teams with rookie QBs this year (MIA x2, DEN, WAS, NYG). The only teams we seem to be facing with elite level QBs would be NE x 2, PIT and PHI. Bottom line -- Our schedule next season (at this point) appears to be one of the easiest I've seen in awhile. Outside of New England, we don't play any of the elite teams from last year like KC, LAC, NO, LAR. We aren't facing many of the young up-and-coming teams like IND, HOU or CHI. Our toughest opponents just may come from the other teams with developing quarterbacks like NYJ and CLE. We finished 6-10 last year, despite a brutal schedule, a rookie QB and virtually no talent on offense. That record also counts Nathan Peterman and Derek Anderson basically throwing 4 games in the trash and Charles Clay dropping a game-winning touchdown. Clay makes that catch and we go 4-2 after Allen's return from injury. I think we are better everywhere on offense and face a significantly easier schedule. If Allen makes any kind of progress, I fully expect us to win at least 9-11 games this year.

I think the chances of us going D-Line at #9 are immensely high. There are generally considered two elite/can't miss prospects (Nick Bosa and Quinnen Williams), who have no chance falling to us. Josh Allen is probably a slight notch below those two, and also has no chance of falling out of the Top 5. Being the top QB, Kyler Murray is a lock for Top 5. With New York/Oakland drafting before us and Denver/Miami/Washington trade up options, I think there is a very good chance Dwayne Haskins also goes before #9. This particular class of RBs, CBs and Safeties is considered weak, and will need to be overdrafted to make the Top 10. Interior O-Line only goes Top 10 when there is an elite prospect. And I don't see one in this group. In my opinion, that leaves the following 11 realistic options at #9. Six of the guys on this list are on the DL. Depending on the QB situation, I see at least 7-8 of these guys being available at our pick. DK Metcalf, WR TJ Hockinson, TE Jawaan Taylor, OT Jonah Williams, OT Montez Sweat, DE Brian Burns, DE Clelin Ferrell, DE Rashan Gary, DT Ed Oliver, DT Christian Wilkins, DT Devon White, LB

Wow. Do you apply the same standards to every NFL front office when it comes to drafting? Every successful player that we didn't draft is a "big mistake"? Do you really expect us to walk out of every draft with 7 All-Pro players? If you look around the league, a successful draft will yield about 3 starting-level players and some quality depth. A fantastic draft might get you 4 starters and some depth. Getting more than that is extremely rare. Either way (good or positive), it's really too early to determine how well this regime has drafted. You really can't make a definitive judgment on a player until at least 3 seasons. Which means certain players could still move up or down. Some of the young guys on our team could still BECOME game-changers. The 2017 class could yield us a few Pro-Bowlers and some solid starters. It's also possible we only get two long-term guys out of this group. So far: - Tre'Davious White looks like a future Pro-Bowler. - Zay Jones had a bad rookie season, and an OK second year. At this point, he's not starting material, but can he continue to progress? - Dion Dawkins showed promise as a rookie, but slid backwards last season. Can he turn it around and become a dependable starter? - Matt Milano was good as a rookie and even better last year. If he keeps progressing, we may see him in the Pro-Bowl too. It's really tough to say anything about the 2018 class. Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds, Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson and Wyatt Teller - along with Levi Wallace and Robert Foster (UDFA) all flashed various levels of long-term starting potential. But it will be another season or two before we can be confident whether they will work out or not.

The more I examine the roster and our recent additions, I agree that we still need to draft another O-Lineman high. We are set at center with Mitch Morse, and we need to have confidence that Dion Dawkins returns to form after a sophomore slump. I think that Ty Nsekhe will be a significant upgrade over Jordan Mills, but he's already 34 and can't be counted on as a long-term answer. We added some nice competition at the guard position, but neither Spencer Long or Jon Feliciano are guaranteed upgrades. And we have no idea whether Wyatt Teller will develop. I'm comfortable enough in our additions at Wide Receiver to let things play out, and we don't need to draft anyone else high. Our biggest remaining needs (in order): 1. Tight End 2. Offensive Line 3. Defensive Tackle/3-Tech 4. Defensive End

There are lots of moving pieces, so it's hard to make a statement like "playoffs or bust." What if Josh Allen throws for 4000 yards and 40 touchdowns, and somehow the defense falls apart and we miss the postseason?

I enjoy reading Pro Football Focus. But their grades are just like any other statistic, and should not be taken as gospel. For instance, Tre'Davious White was the 88th ranked cornerback in the NFL last year. Most of the Bills fans who watch him every week think White should have been in the Pro Bowl. Yet his PFF score was lower than almost every CB on our roster, including Phillip Gaines (who we cut mid-season). In terms of upgrading the O-Line, there weren't too many options on the market who blew away PFF's grading system. Trent Brown, Matt Paradis, Roger Saffold and Ju'Wuan James were also "above average" in 2018, according to the PFF scoring system. Daryl Williams was average. Along with Morse, those guys were the premier free agent options according to virtually everyone who covers the NFL. If you are basing everything off PFF grades alone, there is nothing Beane could have done to earn your approval. At the end of the day, every free agent is someone who was considered expendable by their previous team. For whatever reason. Unless it's purely a money/salary cap issue, you will almost never see premium, All-Pro, Top 5 players on the market. Many are coming off injuries (Morse) or declining because of age. Some were improperly used and coming off poor seasons (Spencer Long). Very often, the ones who get the biggest contracts are inconsistent and overrated - and the only ones who know it are the teams letting them walk. That doesn't mean free agents aren't valuable and can't make an impact. It's just more proof that the Draft is where a front office needs to focus on truly upgrading the roster. Free agency is about filling holes with solid veteran depth. In my opinion, Beane is playing the free agency game correctly. He's filling holes across the roster with solid players. But he's also got his eyes on the future, knowing our long-term success depends on drafting well and then having the cap room to re-sign our own guys (like White, Milano) when they come up in a few years. Teams like the Jets are blowing all of their cap space on a few players, and will not be able to keep the bulk of this roster intact for longer than 1-2 years.

I think most of these guys will stick until (at least) after the draft, and possibly until after training camp and we need to start trimming the roster.

I'm always skeptical about "reports" like this. It doesn't give any kind of source or even suggest who may have supplied them the idea that Buffalo was furious. Sure the Bills fans were upset, but our front office always seemed in control of the situation. Where did the writer get this from? Personally, I recall the ABSOLUTE PANIC AND DESPERATION on this message board after the Jets trade. At the time, most people believed the Giants were taking a QB at #2, and that Denver was certainly a possibility at #5. That meant the top 3 quarterbacks were certain to be gone in the first 3 picks, and we needed to swing a deal to get to the #4 immediately. No waiting for Draft Day to see who was left on the board. People wanted Beane to trade everything to get up there NOW. Besides... Even if this report is true, it certainly isn't a knock on Josh Allen. Speculation about how the QBs were ranked was all over the place, so the Bills would have been justified worrying about getting their guy outside of the Top 3. The media seemed to like Sam Darnold the most, with Josh Rosen a close second. But this was not an accurate representation of the teams. Reports circulated a few weeks before the draft that Cleveland was debating between Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen at #1. People were laughing at the Browns at the time, but nobody is laughing now. The Giants were going to have Darnold/Rosen fall in their lap, but they chose a running back instead. New York reports were saying the Jets wanted Allen the most. But those turned out to be fake, because they ultimately chose Darnold before him. There were many reports that Denver loved Allen too. But of course, they didn't pick a QB at all. The majority of our own fans seemed to want Rosen more (wrong Josh)... but reports later circulated that Arizona was disappointed when we picked Allen and left them with Rosen.

The two defensive players who get the most criticism from Bills fans are Tremaine Edmunds and Star Lotulelei. To me, I think their success ties in together. Edmunds may never be the type of MLB that can consistently shed O-Line blocks in the hole and knock the runner backwards. His game is going to be the sideline-to-sideline pursuit with speed and quickness. As he improves in coverage, he's going to be a huge asset in defending the short passing game as well. That's why it's vitally important to have a player like Lotulelei, who occupies the blockers, takes on double-teams and allows Edmunds and Matt Milano to make the tackles without trying to fight off Guards and Centers.

It's all about winning, and whether those players are helping us do it. I couldn't care less about stats. If we load up on weapons, there is no way that every receiver is going to get 70+ receptions and 1000+ yards. I want John Brown and Robert Foster to force defenses to keep their safeties playing deep. Then Cole Beasley, Zay Jones (and maybe a rookie TE) start picking them apart underneath. When they adjust to the shorter passing game, we hit them with a deep shot. When they start bringing in more DBs to defend all the receiving weapons, we run them over with LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore.

Lots of complaints around here whenever Sean McDermott talks about character. If there is any truth to this, the Chiefs are about to lose their second Pro Bowl player in less than 6 months from off-field concerns.

With all the injuries, I'm guessing Ansah doesn't have a huge market. He's lasted four days on the market (which is forever in free agency) and only has two visits lined up. Knowing the way Beane works, we probably gave him a good offer, but not something that blew him away and kept him from cancelling his visit to New Orleans. We'll see how it goes. Sometimes a player comes back to his first visit (Kevin Johnson) and sometimes they don't (Dwayne Allen).

To me, you keep Hughes as the starter on the right side. Ansah becomes your new starter on the left. Murphy is the primary backup/rotation on both sides in pass rushing situations. Lawson is the primary backup/rotation on both sides in early down/running situations. He can also slide over to tackle on passing downs. On the inside, you keep a heavy rotation depending on situation. Same as last year. Lotulelei is the primary DT in rushing situations. You need to add a 3-Tech to replace Kyle (maybe someone in the draft like Ed Oliver?) JPhillips and HPhillips are your subs, with Lawson even sliding over on the occasion. Alexander is the SLB and jack-of-all-trades. He can drop into coverage, come off the edge or even blitz inside. I think their rotation last year was great. The only problem was Murphy being hurt all the time, and neither he or Lawson providing quite enough with the edge rush. One more DE puts us over the top, and protects us in the event Murphy continues battling injuries. We also need to find a capable replacement for Kyle or we take a step back on the inside rush.

Keep all of them. - We have over $40 million in cap space. - Both Murphy and Ansah have a history of injury problems. - Hughes is a free agent next year, and Lawson might be if we don't activate his 5th year option. The best thing for a D-Line is a strong rotation, always keeping guys fresh and adjusting to the offense. Having four strong DEs and four strong DTs would be a fantastic help to our defense.

Looking at the roster (as it stands Thursday morning), I see our biggest needs as follows: 1. Tight End The Tyler Kroft signing was OK if we are looking at him as our #2, but we could still use a top threat in the passing game and a blocking specialist. We only have two TEs on the roster right now, so we are definitely adding more bodies before camp. My eyes are firmly on TJ Hockinson right now if I'm doing a mock draft. 2. Guard/Tackle We are now fully set at two positions on the O-Line with Dawkins and Morse. I really like the competition we have for the other three spots with Teller, Long, Feliciano and Nsekhe. There is also flexibility to move people around. But I would still like to see one more starting caliber option brought on. 3. Defensive End I'm a big believer that you need four strong players in your DE rotation. We have three. If we can add Ezekiel Ansah, we can cross off this box. 4. Defensive Tackle Same as above. You really need four strong players in your DT rotation. We have three on the roster and lack a 3-Tech to replace Kyle Williams. 5. Wide Receiver If we went into the season with the current group of WRs, I would be comfortable. But right now we have a roster full of #2 guys. It couldn't hurt to add a guy with #1, double-team drawing potential.

Logic says this changeover should have happened a few years ago. The Patriots have defied the odds by remaining competitive for a half-decade longer than they should have. The Bills/Browns/Jets/etc. have defied the odds by not being competitive for roughly the same period of time. It's finally going to happen at some point. Signs are pointing to it being sooner, rather than later. At least we can only hope...

Yep. There are two keys to this dynamic: 1. Getting the proper GM/Front Office in place 2. Getting the proper QB in place I think you can definitely see a (positive) change in direction over the last 2-3 seasons, particularly with the Browns and Bills. They now have both pieces in place. The Colts had the QB already, but the change in GM has made all the difference in the world in surrounding him with talent. The Jets may have got their QB, but I'm skeptical about their new GM. The Chiefs, Ravens and Texans just had changes at the top, and I'm curious if that hurts or helps long-term in surrounding their young QBs.

We already know Beane has no problems moving around the board. Based on everything he's said over the last few months, I really think he's been eying a trade-down this year. Of course, that all depends on who is available at #9 and what kind of offers other teams make. Free agency has played out perfectly for us, so that we can maximize value in the draft. And we still have around $40 million in cap space. They are clearly targeting the pass rush, and I expect them to make a move to grab another DE within the next few days. Sounds like they are going to make a nice offer to Ziggy Ansah, if he checks out medically. Our biggest need was O-Line. With the guys we've picked up, it's possible we already have our starting five on the roster. But we could also draft an OT or OG early, slide some people around and go into the season with upgraded depth. Our second biggest need was WR. By adding two solid veterans, we are no longer desperate to go here early. We don't have a clear #1 target, so I still think we draft someone on Day 1-2 here, but it's no longer a desperate situation. At this point, (in addition to another pass rusher as already mentioned) I think we still need to add another TE and a 3-Tech DT to replace Kyle Williams. Outside of that, we can literally go with anything when the draft comes around.

Yes. He's a good pass catcher. Which means (unlike Chris Ivory), he could take over the lead back role in the event of McCoy getting hurt. Not sure how much you put into PFF rankings, but Gore was their #11 runner last season.

Well... Here are the two narratives. Believe what you will... Those in Paradis' camp are saying the Jets prioritized getting Le'Veon Bell and wouldn't finalize the deal, so he bolted. The Jets are saying Paradis was never really interested in signing with them, just using their offer to drive up his market. Either way, I think Beane was smart in moving on to Morse. Both were very similar in value. It's just about whether you are more concerned with age (26 vs 29) or injuries (broken leg vs concussions).

Interesting sequence of events here (assuming the media reports have any truth to them): - Bills and Jets are supposedly in bidding war during the opening hours of free agency for Matt Paradis - Bills back out of contract talks with Paradis and almost immediately sign Mitch Morse - Instead of signing Paradis, the Jets seemingly move onto other targets like C.J. Mosley and Anthony Barr - Paradis resumes talks to return to the Broncos - Paradis suddenly signs with the Panthers for less than Morse got So the question is... Did the Bills always have Morse as their #1 target at center? Did the Jets pull/lower their offer once the Bills signed Morse and they had leverage?

Notice the teams at the bottom of the list are those who haven't had WINNING franchises in a long time. The article also says that Cleveland was by far the worst destination, and has been creeping up since hiring John Dorsey as GM.