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mjt328

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Everything posted by mjt328

  1. If you are looking for D-Line, that still leaves Rashan Gary, Brian Burns and Christian Wilkins as potential picks at #9. Or you could go with TJ Hockinson, then try to trade back into the end of Round 1 and get someone like Clelin Ferrell, Jerry Tillery or Jeffery Simmons. In this particular situation, I have a really tough time believing that we couldn't manage some kind of trade down. The top LB (White) and the top OT (Taylor) are still on the board, and neither position is particularly strong in the later rounds.
  2. Very surprised to see O-Line still high on so many lists. If we are going OT, does that mean we've already given up on Dion Dawkins playing that position? If we are sliding Dawkins inside, that pretty much guarantees Wyatt Teller is a goner, right? I mean we signed Spencer Long, Jon Feliciano and Quinton Spain already, and all would be worthy of fighting for the starting guard spots. Who knows for sure what the Bills are thinking here... but I really believe actions speak louder than words. Their actions have been to sign SIX offensive linemen in free agency (all of whom are expected to compete for a starting spot). Their actions have been to sign ONE defensive lineman in free agency (who has more experience as a SLB than as a DE).
  3. It honestly shouldn't surprise anyone if the Bills make the playoffs this year. 1. We literally made the playoffs two seasons ago. 2. We have won between 6-9 games every year since 2010 (eight years in a row). This team has the reputation of being a garbage franchise. But in reality, we've been on the Wild Card doorstep for most of the last decade. The idea that Cleveland has suddenly become an AFC favorite is much crazier than expecting us to win 9-10 this year.
  4. Small school guys often get knocked for playing against "weaker" competition. But you can't forget they also play alongside weaker teammates, and opponents can focus 100% on stopping just them. Meanwhile, guys from bigger schools usually have the benefit of playing alongside several other good players, and in many cases look better because of the system. Scouting is a tricky thing. You are literally trying to predict the future. Everything you know about a guy is based on maybe 20-25 games played, how his physical attributes show at the combine, and what you can find out in interviews. There is a reason that only 4-5 guys (at most) are considered "sure-things" every year in the draft, and some of those guys still don't work out.
  5. The last truly superior LB who fits the profile you say was probably Ray Lewis. Luke Kuechly is probably the best in today's NFL, but I would hardly describe him as someone who dominates like the old days. Like it or not, the NFL is changing. The traditional running game is a complimentary piece to offenses now. Not a primary method of attack. And because of that, defenses must adapt. The big and powerful MLB who blows through linemen with ease, then stuffs runners in the hole... he's becoming a dinosaur. Teams need guys who can sprint from sideline to sideline, cover RBs and TEs in the passing game, chase down scrambling QBs, etc.
  6. People seem to have a really hard time understanding the BPA idea. It's really not that tough. Just because a GM is drafting BPA, does NOT mean he isn't taking position into consideration at all. Fans seem to have this idea that Brandon Beane and his scouts are sitting around, ranking every college prospect from #1 to #500, and then drafting whoever is the top guy on the list. It doesn't quite work like that. In reality, most teams are only going to have those numbered breakdowns by position. After that, everything will be separated by tiers. You have the guys you think are elite/future Pro-Bowlers. You have the guys who are solid starters. You have the guys who are depth/backups. Etc. Etc. So (theoretically) for example, you may have DTs ranked #1-25. But then you have Quinnen Williams all by himself in Tier 1. Ed Oliver and Christian Wilkins in Tier 2. Jeffery Simmons, Jerry Tillery and Dexter Lawrence in Tier 3. You then have the OTs ranked #1-25. Nobody is in Tier 1 this year. Tier 2 has Jawaan Taylor and Jonah Williams. Tier 3 as Andre Dillard and Cody Ford. Finally, you have the CBs ranked #1-25. But you don't have anyone in Tiers 1-2, because it's a really weak class. You start ranking them in Tier 3 with Byron Murphy and Greedy Williams. And so on. - When the pick comes up, you don't want to have a massive need at CB. Because sitting at #9, it would be a bad idea to reach for an inferior player just to fill need. - At the same time, if Quinnen Williams is the only Tier 1 guy available, then you take him... even if you feel OT is a bigger need. - If everyone available is in Tier 2, then you just go by your rankings off the biggest positional need. And it's still BPA.
  7. We still have room to keep our 10 picks without being forced into cutting key players from the 53-man roster. Looking through our current roster, I think (barring someone getting traded) we currently have 41 roster spots "set in stone" for the upcoming season. That would leave the following players as guys who would need to battle against drafted/undrafted rookies for a spot, or who could ultimately end up on the 10-man practice squad: Derek Anderson, Senorise Perry, Marcus Murphy, Keith Ford, Duke Williams, Isaiah McKenzie, Ray-Ray McCloud, Da'Mari Scott, Cam Phillips, Victor Bolden, Jason Croom, Jake Fisher, Russell Bodine, Vlad Ducasse, Ike Boettger, Connor McDermott, Eddie Yarbrough, Mike Love, Kyle Peko, Deon Lacey, Corey Thompson, Julian Stanford, Ryan Lewis, Lafayette Pitts, Denzel Rice, Dean Marlow, Siran Neal, Corey Bojorquez and Cory Carter. Nothing we can't live without... Going into the draft, I see the following 12 spots being up for grabs. 1 Running Back 1 Wide Receiver 2 Tight Ends 1 Offensive Lineman 1 Defensive End 1 Defensive Tackle 1 Outside Linebacker 1 Inside Linebacker 1 Cornerback 1 Safety 1 Punter
  8. When it comes to Free Agency, always keep in mind.... There was a reason these players were allowed to leave their former teams. All of them have flaws and question marks. And if you are expecting us to suddenly have the NFL's best blocking unit, you will probably be disappointed. At the same time, very good players can be found in Free Agency every single year. Guys like Lorenzo Alexander, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer were fantastic upgrades that came from Free Agency. While all of these players have question marks, every addition gives us reason to be optimistic as well. Mitch Morse has consistently proven to be a Top 10 center in the NFL. There is a reason he was our top target, and he's the addition most of us are excited about. Of course, there are some concerns about his injury history - specifically with concussions. For a team forced into tough cap decisions, the Chiefs were not willing to make a long-term commitment for that very reason. If he stays healthy, this should be an awesome signing for us. Ty Nsekhe was widely considered the best backup OT in the NFL. He's been stuck behind a perennial Pro-Bowler in Trent Williams and pretty good RT in Morgan Moses. Every time he's gotten into the starting lineup (16 starts in 4 years), he's performed extremely well. As long as he fits the scheme, there is no reason to believe he won't be a tremendous upgrade for us. The only issue here is age. He got a late start in the NFL and already turns 34 in October. Quinton Spain has been a solid starter for the Titans for the last 3-4 years. Nothing Pro-Bowl level, but certainly better than anything we've fielded since Ritchie Incognito left. From what I understand, he doesn't quite fit the scheme that new Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith wants to run. That's what made him expendable. For us, adding a "solid" guard is a monstrous improvement. Spencer Long was a pretty good player for the Redskins, but then completely bombed after signing a decent contract with the Jets last year. Which player are we getting? There are many who think he just wasn't a great Center and will be better with a move-back to Guard. Time will tell. Jon Feliciano was considered strong depth for the Raiders. LaAdrian Waddle was considered strong depth for the Patriots. Last year, both of these guys would have been unquestioned starters on the Bills, because our roster was so weak. I imagine both will be given the chance to win a starting position. But if not, they will give us strong depth.
  9. If that is coming from an NFL executive, I feel sorry for whatever team he's running. You don't like the players the Bills signed? Fair enough. But to say they don't have a PLAN? That's just odd. If anything can be gathered from this offseason, it's that Beane had a clear strategy on where he wanted to improve and he executed it. We filled almost all of our holes prior to the draft, still have nearly $30 million in cap space and made virtually no long-term financial commitments. Our blocking was terrible last year. He has signed six new players to the O-Line. Our receivers were bad last year. He's added two new players to that position. He's even addressed the special teams with a handful of guys who are considered ST aces. We go into the draft in 3 weeks with only a few needs - DE, DT and TE. The strongest positions in this draft class? DE, DT and TE.
  10. I like his strategy. And I think his master-plan for rebuilding the roster has been very sound. Beane's first 12 months were all about drafting a potential-franchise QB, and purging the salary cap of bad contracts. He executed both moves to perfection. But ultimately, he must also be great at evaluating talent and bringing in the right players. Only time will tell if he's been good enough on that end. What happens if Josh Allen turns out to be a bust? What good is cap space if he doesn't properly utilize it to restock the roster? I admittedly feel very optimistic about both of these issues. But we won't know until the Bills actually hit the field and start racking up wins.
  11. What is the obsession about having players change positions? Cordy Glenn played here for 6 years at Left Tackle, and did a pretty good job at it. Yet some fans never stopped suggesting that he get moved to the right side. Now, I understand the questions about Dion Dawkins, considering his struggles last season and us totally rebuilding the O-Line. But I have a feeling that even if Dawkins rebounds in 2019, the talk of moving him to guard will never go away. When it comes to Edmunds, I think his skill-set is exactly what McDermott wants for the MLB in his defense. Too many people are still looking at Brandon Spikes/Reggie Ragland as the prototype, and that's clearly not what the Bills are looking for. The NFL has moved to the quick/short passing game. McDermott wants a guy that is really athletic, can run sideline to sideline, and will be pretty good in coverage. We have Star Lotulelei to take on the blockers, keep them off the linebackers and let the LBs make the plays (but convincing people of the value in that is a whole other story).
  12. If you build a roster that is "top-heavy" with highly paid stars, then you aren't going to have the cap space for strong depth. Would you rather have three solid guys at $4 million per year or one Top 10-15 guy for $12 million? To me, the NFL's best teams seem to be those with a franchise QB, a small handful of stars and strong depth throughout the entire 53-man roster. Not the teams who are relying on 5-6 guys to do everything (and hope they don't get hurt). Personally, I was most impressed with Beane's ability to avoid long-term cap commitments. Listening to him speak, he definitely understands that long-term success comes through the draft. Not through free agency. He knows that free agency is necessary right now to help fill-in the weak points. But long-term, he wants to build this roster with guys he selects in April. Not March.
  13. If you look hard enough, you can find flaws in every prospect. According to 99% of draft coverage, Nick Bosa is one of this year's can't-miss elite prospects (along with Quinnen Williams). I just don't see any scenario where he falls to #9. Now depending on how desperate teams are for a QB and whether teams are willing to reach for need, it's possible Bosa or Williams fall to #5-6. In that case, the Bills are within striking distance to move-up a couple spots without selling the farm. But if they stay in their current slot and go D-Line, we are probably looking at someone like Montez Sweat, Brian Burns, Ed Oliver or Christian Wilkins.
  14. Bills fans should know better than anybody. If you don't have a top QB (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor), it really doesn't matter how good the rest of your team is. Even if Eli Manning isn't technically "done" - his best days are clearly behind him. Even at the top of his game, Manning was a very inconsistent QB who was average most of the time and had only a couple stretches of greatness. He's not going to be a player who can lead you to a Super Bowl anymore. Especially not with this roster. And if you aren't gunning for a championship, then what are you doing? The Giants were in a perfect position (drafting #2) last year. They had their choice from a handful of good QB prospects and passed. They should have a pretty good prospect in Dwayne Haskins fall into their lap at #5. Rumors are they are passing again. So either Gettleman is poor at scouting the quarterback position, or he's just terrible at understanding how to build a winning roster. If Gettleman is purposely gunning for someone specific in 2020-2021, then he's a fool. The landscape of the NFL, the NCAA and the Draft can change dramatically in 12 months. Players can get hurt or decide to go back to school. With a year of film, the top guys can suddenly have their flaws exposed by college defenses. I can't count how many times I've seen a can't-miss Top 5 quarterback plummet as a prospect in the span of one college season. Gettleman doesn't know who is going to be available, or if they will still be good enough to warrant a top pick. And even if the Giants tank, there is no guarantee they will even be high enough to get the QB they are targeting. All of the non-QB talent Gettleman is pulling together will totally go to waste if he continues to push-off taking a QB. In most cases, it will take 2-3 years to develop a QB after drafting him. By the time the Giants finally get a guy in place, Barkley's prime will be gone and the team will be in salary cap trouble.
  15. My guess is they like some RBs in the draft better... they plan on drafting one... and they probably won't keep more than three on the roster.
  16. I'm sure the Bills are prepared for any scenario, and have internally discussed a trade-up. Doesn't mean it will happen. Nobody knows what's going to happen on draft day, or how far some players may fall. I can tell you that Beane doesn't seem the type to trade away multiple 1st Rounders for an edge rusher. Now if Murray, Haskins and Lock go early, AND some other Top 8 teams decide they need a linebacker (White) or left tackle (Taylor) with their first pick -- then it's totally conceivable that Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen gets to within striking distance. In this situation, I could see him packaging a mid-rounder to jump up a few spots from #9.
  17. You are right. I was thinking about free agent signings and completely forgot about the trade for Osemele.
  18. The Jets clearly upgraded the running back position. But they did virtually nothing on the offensive line, which was one of their weak points last season. So at the end of the day, how much did they truly upgrade their rushing attack? How much does that marginal improvement in the run game actually help the offense? And will it be enough to make the team better in the win column? FYI - I do realize the draft has not happened yet. Just like us with Josh Allen, the biggest difference will ultimately be how much Sam Darnold improves in his second year. I liked Darnold a lot as a prospect, and I thought he showed a lot of promise last season. So although I do anticipate the Jets improving in 2019, very little of that is due to Le'Veon Bell. When it comes to building a roster, I definitely prefer Brandon Beane's approach. Instead of making a huge splash on ONE guy, we spread our dollars out and brought in solid starters/competition at multiple places. At the end of the day, I think Morse, Gore, Brown, Beasley, Nsekhe, Long, Feliciano and Waddle will be a bigger boost than... Bell.
  19. Even if running back was our biggest need, this is not the year to spend a high pick on one. This is not a very good class. Josh Jacobs is considered the best RB in this class by far, and most see him as a early-mid 2nd round pick. After that, you have about 10-15 mid-round guys who nobody can agree on, and will likely start coming off the board between the late 2nd and 4th rounds. So unless you are a huge fan of Jacobs, the sweet spot for RB is early on Day 3. On top of that, many of us believe that most of LeSean McCoy's problems last year were due to the O-Line. Nobody could have had success behind our blocking last season. Especially not a RB who relies on elusiveness, and isn't great at breaking tackles. Not Ezekiel Elliott. Not Saquan Barkley. Not Todd Gurley. It was a total disaster. Since Beane has focused heavily on fixing our O-Line (five free agents added), there is plenty of reason to be optimistic for the running game to recover next season. If McCoy is truly done, then we simply put Frank Gore into the lineup. Sure, Gore is not the long-term answer. But he was still one of the NFL's best running backs last season and should still be very effective. Running back isn't a position that needs grooming and development. Most of the league's top runners played great as rookies. So if we can get ONE good season out of either McCoy or Gore, we can plan on drafting a guy earlier in 2020 - hopefully with a better class of RBs available. As a final point, I think many of us recognize the importance of having a Pro-Bowl workhouse running back is passing away. The Patriots have been successful for years with a committee approach. The Saints too. The Chiefs and Steelers lost their top guys last season and never missed a beat. Gurley was totally ineffective down the stretch, and the Rams still made the Super Bowl by plugging in a guy off the street. The Giants immediately drafted/inserted a Top 5 guy into their lineup, and he made no impact on the team's record.
  20. Possible. But your theory depends on us drafting a WR high, which I just don't see happening. We haven't replaced Kyle Williams, and will have a handful of talented DTs staring us in the face at #9. We are clearly in the market for another DE, but were unable to get one in free agency (at least not yet). Our weakest position is Tight End. If Daboll is trying to copy the Patriots at all, this will not be the case for long. Now that he's got some freedom with the cap, you can see how Beane likes to approach the roster. Instead of going top-heavy, he likes stockpiling depth and making them fight for a roster spot. I don't see him considering Zay Jones expendable yet. I also don't think he's ready to hand Robert Foster a Top 3 spot after handful of good games his rookie season.
  21. I see running back being a Day 3 selection. Probably the 4th Round. Round 1 will be a DT or DE Round 2-3 will be TE and whatever we didn't get in the 1st
  22. Biggest Needs: Tight End 3-Tech Defensive Tackle Medium Needs: Defensive End Offensive Guard or Tackle Depth/Looking to Future Needs: Running Back Strongside Linebacker Wide Receiver
  23. I think the Bills have a Top 5 fanbase in the NFL. But going against the Packers this early is going to screw us. Packers probably are #1.
  24. Some of the responses are interesting. I don't see this is as a big need at all. At least not before the 3rd-4th Round. With the amount we are in nickel defense, you are only going to see two linebackers on the field most of the time. And unlike the D-Line, you don't see a heavy rotation at linebacker. Barring injury, the starters will play 95%+ of the snaps. Backup linebackers are mostly used for special teams. - In my opinion, Matt Milano has flashed big-time playmaking ability in his first two years. I'm absolutely shocked that some people think he should be upgraded. We should be set here for the next several years, and I can't believe it's even a question. - Tremaine Edmunds definitely had struggles as a rookie. But it should have been expected from someone with his experience. He definitely improved as the year goes along, and I think he makes a huge jump this year. Again, I find it shocking how quickly some fans want to move-on from young players. - Lorenzo Alexander is aging, so I definitely wouldn't mind grooming someone behind him. But I can't see using a really high draft pick on someone. Taking someone like Devon White would be a waste. The only reason Alexander even plays the number of snaps (I think he was around 60 percent) is because of his versatility. He was a chess piece for McDermott. Would another SLB be flexible to also play DE and DT?
  25. As free agency has progressed, this is a question also crossing my mind. The roster is a numbers game. As we continue to add solid veteran depth, we are quickly running out of places for draft picks. Considering we still have a nice amount of cap space, it's possible we aren't even done with free agents. The only clear remaining holes on the roster are at TE and DT (3-Tech). The coaching staff is clearly looking to add another pass rusher at DE, so you can add that as well. And it couldn't hurt to add another OT or OG into the competition. But both would probably be overkill. Outside of that... anybody we draft or pickup as an UDFA is going to be competing for third string/practice squad reps. Another QB is going to be developmental/practice squad. Another RB is going to be #3 behind the vets for at least a season. Another WR is probably going to be #5 on the depth chart. Barring injury, backup linebackers rarely get on the field outside of special teams. Another CB is going to be #6 at best. I can't see another Safety even making the roster. More likely than a trade-up from #9, I can see us trying to get back into the back-end of the 1st Round. Or packaging some of those mid-rounders into another 2nd or 3rd. Personally, I would love to get someone like Ed Oliver at #9 and then possibly get back into the mid/late 20s again for TJ Hockinson (not sure he falls), Noah Fant or Irv Smith Jr.
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