mjt328

In the Miami and Jacksonville games, the Bills were so far ahead that Josh Allen did nothing in the second half. Against Arizona, he had only three passes at halftime. The Ravens game was an anomaly... statistically his worst performance since his rookie season. Also, the Bills just added a #1 WR to the team a week ago. A lot of weird stuff over the first seven games. My general feeling is that Allen's "pace" is well below where he's going to actually finish the season.

The frustrating part about the MVP race is how the parameters for the award keep changing. Last year, Josh Allen was the statistically superior player by far (44 touchdowns vs. 29 touchdowns). But the media decided to overhype his turnovers every single week... to the point that most NFL viewers actually believed Allen was having a bad season. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson was considered a pretty 'meh' candidate for the award until the Christmas game against the 49ers. Big primetime game at the end of the season, plus the Number One seed. Got opinion on his side at the right time. This year, Allen is (slightly) behind him in yards/touchdowns. The Bills and Ravens have identical records. But suddenly the turnovers (Allen with zero interceptions) don't matter to voters. Patrick Mahomes has 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and some are even arguing for him to win the award.

This is the Bills problem in a nutshell. Sean McDermott doesn't believe in breaking from his scheme. Ever He is fully confident that (regardless of an opponent's strengths), the Bills will always come out on top if the players execute everything properly for 4 full quarters. If the Week 4 game against Baltimore wasn't going to push him into a 4-3 alignment or heavier boxes, then absolutely nothing will. And honestly, McDermott is probably right going against 90-95% of the NFL. The regular season winning percentage is proof. It's just those pesky 3-4 top teams like the Chiefs and Bengals, who we inevitably run into during the postseason. Stay consistent/patient with the rushing attack, short passes and screens... they know this defense will struggle. I would LOVE to see McDermott start experimenting with different ideas/play-calls. Especially early in games, since we are getting toasted anyway. Develop some kind of pivot, just in case our normal thing isn't doing the job.

Some teams like to adjust their gameplan heavily from week to week, depending on the strengths/weaknesses of their opponent. The Bills are very reluctant to break from their normal scheme, under any circumstances. Nickel. Four man rush. Very little blitzing. Mostly zone coverage. This kind of defense is naturally going to be vulnerable to the run, and short passes. My belief is that McDermott likes to come out of the gate with very "vanilla" playcalling, similar to what teams would call in preseason. That way he can get a general feel for what the other team is trying to do, without blowing all his best stuff early. If the other team has done their homework, they know exactly where and how to attack us. If they can stay disciplined with the run and short passes, they can usually move the ball early. As the game goes on, a few things usually happen. One is that our opponent starts getting nervous/impatient about keeping up with Josh Allen and the offense. They gradually start breaking away from the run and short passes, which of course plays directly into our strengths. This is what McDermott means by "complimentary" football. The second is that our coaches break from that vanilla playcalling. There are some small adjustments, and the occasional blitz. We continue to run the same basic scheme throughout the game, but get way more creative with how it's disguised. All of this works 70-75% of the time, and the Bills come out on top. I just wish McDermott would come up with something different for the postseason. Teams like the Chiefs, Bengals and Ravens are too disciplined and talented to break from the gameplan. They know our weak points and they will continue to attack it for 4 quarters.

Because professional sports is entertainment above everything else. And for some weird reason, human beings seem to enjoy their sports way more when it is accompanied by compelling storylines and narratives. Just like movies and tv shows, every story needs a big star. Someone who can be immediately associated with the letters N-F-L, and recognized worldwide by people that don't even watch football. That person has been Tom Brady for the last 2 decades. The torch has now been passed to Patrick Mahomes. You won't see the sports media as a whole leveling any kind of significant criticism at the face of the NFL, because it's simply bad for business. As it stands, the NFL's narrative is that Kansas City is the dynasty that cannot be stopped. They have the golden boy QB. They have the guy dating the pop superstar. They obviously have the championships to back it up. Yes, they could very easily have 2-3 losses this season. But with the 49ers now behind them, talk will quickly start rolling of them going undefeated. Now they have 31 other fanbases tuning in weekly hoping desperately for them to finally drop a game. That's the power of a storyline. Honestly, I also think the NFL wants a legitimate rival for the Chiefs and Mahomes. They really want to see another Manning vs. Brady. They have tried very hard to promote both Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, but neither has managed to seal the deal with a ring. Once one of them does, I think the narrative will change and more respect will follow.

How about some plays under center? Motion? Play action? Easy swing passes to the flats? Designed roll-outs? Quick curl routes? Why does this team always send out high school level Offensive Coordinators? No creativity. No understanding of how the game flows. No ability to counter after the other team adjusts. Once a team figures out our top 10-15 plays, we just smash our faces into a brick wall over and over.

Joe Brady = Ken Dorsey How is it that NOBODY on this offense can ever get open? Josh Allen takes the snap, holds the ball for 3 seconds, bails from the pocket to buy another 3 seconds... and we STILL HAVE NOBODY OPEN!!!!!! Yet other teams: Snap. Two step drop. Throw to wide open receiver. Over and over and over.

The Von Miller "one player away" plan failed, mostly because of a torn ACL. I agree that we need to draft a stud player on the D-Line, and that Brandon Beane has not been able to find enough premium difference makers. At the same time, I don't think the difference between Kansas City and Buffalo is big... when both teams are at full strength. The difference between Patrick Mahomes being the NFL's top QB and Josh Allen lagging behind him at #2... is Andy Reid's offensive genius. Over the last four years, they have been almost neck/neck statistically. If the Bills could land a really good OC, I'm confident Allen would jump ahead. As a head coach though, I'm not sure Reid is much better than Sean McDermott. Anyone who says otherwise probably wasn't watching the NFL before 2019. Reid was that guy who went 21 YEARS before winning his first championship, constantly falling short in the playoffs. Prior to Mahomes being drafted, he was the literal definition of being unable to get over the hump. Spagnolo's history as a DC is pretty up and down. People tend to forget his time with the Rams, his second stint with the Giants, or even his first few seasons with the Chiefs. As a defensive mind, McDermott has a more consistent track-record and seems to get more out of the talent he's been given. I do agree the Chiefs defense has surpassed ours over the last 2 seasons, but that is mostly talent/age/injury related. Kansas City's defense carried that Super Bowl run last year. But before that, they were just as much of a liability in the postseason. We definitely don't have a defensive player on the level of Chris Jones. Most teams don't. Not sure Travis Kelce is worth mentioning anymore. I don't think the slow start is a fluke. His best days are behind him.

This is an underrated aspect of team building for GMs. It's not just simply a contest to collect talent and hit on draft picks. You also must consider development time, and factor that into when young players are actually ready to take the reigns. Linebacker is a position where the Brandon Beane did an A+ job. Terrell Bernard was drafted a year before the Bills actually needed him. Once Tremaine Edmunds left in free agency, he had an entire year of development under his belt and immediately stepped into the MLB role. No learning curve or rookie struggles. And he actually played better than Edmunds ever did. Wide Receiver is a position where Beane didn't really do enough. Even without the unexpected Stefon Diggs fallout, he knew that Gabe Davis was likely to walk out the door. Maybe he should have been more aggressive going up for Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison. Instead we doubled-up on Tight End... and we really don't use both guys fully.

The Bills seem to like (at least) one of their outside receivers being a big-bodied, strong run blocker. Even if he's not very good at actually catching passes. It's been Gabe Davis the last few years. Now it seems to be Mack Hollins. And since the team has been very run-heavy, he's getting the majority of snaps. One of my big complaints (so far) with Joe Brady and the offense, is that he seems to pigeonhole the skillsets on our receivers and it makes our passing game way too predictable. Curtis Samuel is basically our gadget guy, and isn't being used much beyond that. We were hoping for what Kyle Shanahan does with Deebo Samuel, and instead we got Isaiah McKenzie 2.0. It's painfully obvious every time he's on the field and you can tell other DBs are also catching on to the gimmick. In the same way, Khalil Shakir is playing almost exclusively in the slot, even though he has deep speed and could be good moving around. Keon Coleman is used exclusively on the outside, when he could also be effective as a big slot inside. MVS is our deep threat, and him being on the field pretty much telegraphs we are hoping for a shot downfield. Not much creativity with the tight ends either.

The game was borderline unwatchable. If it wasn't my favorite team in a 4th Quarter tie-game, I would have absolutely turned it off. There were numerous laughably awful calls. Even AARON RODGERS was shaking his head after that roughing the passer penalty, and admitted after the game it was a bad call. Equally bad was Spencer Brown getting flagged for... (checks replay)... pushing the defender into the ground. Huh? And WTF is an illegal block by a defender? Is that even in the rulebook?

It will be interesting to see what the commentators who watch All-22 say about this. Defenses have clearly adjusted to what Joe Brady was doing in Weeks 1-3. Hopefully he finds the answers quickly, or we may be looking at another mid-season OC firing. I'm noticing much less motion and movement, which makes me think the Bills are seeing more zone coverage than man coverage. The short stuff isn't there anymore, which means we SHOULD be able to make plays downfield. I'm just baffled those shots are somehow going to... Mack Hollins (?)... who is apparently terrible at tracking the deep ball. We tried a couple comeback/back-shoulder throws in the 2nd half (one which led to the touchdown). But those aren't typically high-percentage plays we can count on. Where is Curtis Samuel down the field? Everything is a gadget or screen. Why aren't Dalton Kincaid or Dawson Knox (he is still on the team right?) able to make plays against linebackers. Not sure we need to make a splash for Davante Adams or some other diva #1. Do our guys suck that bad? Or is it just poor utilization? I just don't understand how other coordinators can figure out ways to get people open, and Josh Allen is always staring down the field at nothing. This was true last year with Stefon Diggs in the lineup anyway.

The Bills defense is pretty much 100% Nickel, mostly zone and highly disguised Cover 2 shifts, utilizing a 4-man rush without much blitzing. They are probably the best team in the entire NFL at the scheme they run. And in Weeks 1-2, we saw how well the front office has done at obtaining players that fit THIS system, and how awesome the staff has done at coaching up depth to fill-in when starters go down. This scheme is not without its flaws though. Players are a bit undersized, and we operate very light in the box. McDermott's units have always struggled with big physical running games (and Derrick Henry in particular). And they can occasionally get picked apart by extremely accurate QBs who are patient enough to chip down the field (see Bengals playoff game from two years back). This is especially true when the team is without the entire second level of the defense (Milano, Bernard and Johnson). Bills coaches know Josh Allen and the offense are usually a juggernaut. And the few teams capable of exploiting our defensive weaknesses, usually find themselves quickly forced out of that style in order to keep pace on the scoreboard. For anyone complaining, this strategy resulted in 4 straight division titles and the longest streak in NFL history without losing a game by more than 6 points. In other words, they win most of the time. And the other games they at least have a good chance in the late 4th quarter. It's a great plan overall. Especially in a heavy-passing league. Miami will probably never get past us in the AFC East, because our defensive system is constructed specifically to shut-down attacks just like them. But my one gripe with McDermott and staff, is their tendency to be a stubborn when their normal routine isn't doing the job. Even if the strategy listed above works 90% of the time... that other 10% is what will ultimately cost us the Super Bowl year after year. Yes, Baltimore is unique from other teams in the NFL. But what happens if we run into them again (very possible) in the playoffs? Are we going to see the same reluctance from McDermott to break from Nickel, or at least put more people in the box? We all watched the previously mentioned Bengals playoff game, where our defense sat back in soft zone and never adjusted, just allowing Burrow to pick them apart with short passes. Overall I like McDermott, and think his leadership is a key part in our success. But I do think Monday night was evidence that he still hasn't figured out why this team keeps getting bounced from the postseason. And until he does, I can't see the Bills breaking through.

The Chiefs have won two straight Super Bowls after parting with Tyreek Hill. And even though it's early, the Bills offense definitely seems more consistent without Stefon Diggs in the lineup. I wonder if other teams are going to start realizing the big egos at that position just aren't worth the cap space (and headache). Think about it. When you have a player/captain like Diggs, he absolutely MUST be involved in the weekly gameplan. If the QB isn't feeding him at least 5-10 targets per week, that player will certainly start sulking and complaining. Whether it results in winning or not. At the same time, defenses are putting extra focus/coverage on stopping a WR like Diggs. Which means there are several times during every single game where the QB is purposely forcing the ball into heavy coverage, JUST to make his receiver happy. That is going to result in wasted plays, turnovers and wasted drives. Now maybe Diggs is more capable of beating the coverage and making a highlight catch than an average receiver... but wouldn't it just make more sense to focus on just finding the open guy all the time?

You can't get caught-up in records during the first month of the season. Ravens were arguably the best team in the NFL last year. They came within a toenail (literally) of beating the Chiefs on Week 1. Home team will always get a little boost from the oddsmakers, as it should. And historically, teams will often have a down week after blowing the doors off someone... like we just did against the Jaguars.

Sean McDermott is one of the best Defensive minds in football. He just needs to figure out how to translate that regular season success, and shut-down top QBs in the playoffs.

Easy. I believe Diggs is totally incapable of seeing his own faults, and he truly believes he holds no responsibility for any team failures during his time here. It's like a person who jumps from failed relationship to failed relationship, always blaming the person they used to be with, and never stopping to self-reflect on what they could do better to make it work next time. In my opinion, Diggs eventually came to believe the team was totally incapable of reaching the next level of the postseason and mentally checked-out. Whether that was directed more towards Sean McDermott, Josh Allen, etc., I don't know. But it was clear that something broke in him during the Bengals playoff loss. By the time we reached the final stretch of 2023, the rest of the team seemed determined to step up and save the season. He seemed to be packing it in. There are claims that Diggs was "phased-out" of the offense when Joe Brady took over. But if you look at the stats, he was still getting solid targets (averaging over 8 per game after the OC change) at the end of the 2023 season. He just wasn't doing anything with the ball when it came his way.

Human nature is always looking for someone to blame when things go wrong. I notice a lot of people trying to lay all these injuries on our training and conditioning staff, but I'm not sure that's really fair. Up until the end of 2021, the Bills were actually one of the healthiest teams in the entire league. And if you recall, our training staff and facilities were getting a lot of credit (which honestly was probably just luck and was really undeserved). Then on Thanksgiving of that year, everything started unraveling. And it's been a mess ever since. 2021 - Tre White - ACL 2022 - Micah Hyde - Neck 2022 - Von Miller - ACL 2023 - Tre White - Achilles 2023 - Matt Milano - Leg 2023 - Daquan Jones - Pec 2024 - Matt Milano - Bicep 2024 - Terrel Bernard - Pec As you can see, most of these injuries are freak occurrences. Miller did have a previous ACL tear to the same knee, but it was 9 years prior. Milano gets a bad rap for being injury-prone. But anyone would have gotten hurt getting caught in a pile like that. His bicep injury happened hitting a bag. Bernard is undersized, so I can sorta understand the point being made there. But Jones is not, and he completely tore it. The crazy thing is, everything is on the Defensive side of the ball. Our Offense has remained relatively healthy. Josh Allen has the longest streak of starts for a QB in the NFL. Our O-Line was the only unit to start the same five guys every game last year.

As many have consistently pointed out, the Chiefs won the Super Bowl the last two years and are favored to repeat again in 2024. That is AFTER they traded away Tyreek Hill, and knocked their receiver group down to one of the worst in the NFL. There are 9 different major position groups in the NFL. It's impossible to prioritize all of them with 1st Round Picks and high dollar contracts. I don't really know what people expect? If we use all our resources on WR, then it's going to take a toll on our O-Line, Pass Rush, Secondary, etc. etc. How can anyone say Brandon Beane doesn't value receiving weapons? In reality, he has used 3 of his last 5 top draft picks on that exact thing. He traded a 1st Round Pick for Stefon Diggs in 2020. He targeted a WR in the 1st Round of the 2023 draft, and ended up going with Dalton Kincaid when the other viable options were gone. They targeted a WR in the 1st Round again in 2024, and clearly explained that trading down (a whopping 5 spots over two trades) was due to several players being ranked about the same. Does drafting Coleman hold less value because he was picked at #33 instead of #28? I know everything isn't sunshine and flowers around this team right now. But let's at least make sure our criticism makes some sense.

The story about Diggs was exactly the same here... until the Bengals playoff game. That was the point things finally started unraveling (at least publicly). Even after that sideline tantrum, most Bills fans were willing to shrug it off. Opinion on Diggs didn't really shift until the training camp absence last summer, and his production totally falling off in the second half.

If one thing is true in the history of sports, it's that the BEST players know how to turn things up in the postseason/championships. And the Bills are severely lacking in the number of game-changing superstars on the roster. Josh Allen's first 6 years are among the best in NFL history for a Quarterback. But statistically, he's even better in the playoffs. Unfortunately, there isn't a single player on the offensive roster (outside of a single game from Gabe Davis) who you can say that about. Our "superstar" receiver consistently disappeared in the playoffs every single year... outside of the emotional outbursts on the sideline and after our losses. Very similar story on the defensive side. Brandon Beane has proven excellent at providing players who fit/mesh with Sean McDermott's scheme perfectly. Regardless of injuries, we are always able to field a Top 5-10 unit during the regular season. But when the elite QBs come around, we need more than a clever scheme. We need our top players to step up and take over the game. Especially rushing the passer. And we can't do it. In my opinion, Beane does realize the problem and has attempted to correct it. After the 2020 championship loss, he went nuts and drafted Groot/Boogie back to back. The next year, he broke the bank to get Von Miller. He knows this team NEEDS an elite pass rusher for the postseason. It just hasn't worked out yet. With all that said, there is still a lot of luck involved. Both in the regular season and postseason. The Bills were 13 seconds away from winning in 2021. The 2022 regular season game came down to a last minute Knox touchdown and Taron Johnson INT to win. The 2023 regular season had the Kadarius Toney Offside. Postseason we were a missed field goal away from tying.

The schedule is absolutely brutal. At least if you consider how teams finished last season. The real question is whether the Bills can win the division. Strength of schedule is a real hurdle this year, especially versus the Jets. First of all, we play ALL of last year's Final Four to the Super Bowl. Ravens (Road), Chiefs (Home), 49ers (Home), Lions (Road). We also play two other tough playoff teams from last year's postseason, both unfortunately on the road. Texans and Rams. It would be optimistic to think we walk out of these games with a 3-3 record, even if we are just as good as in previous years. The last few years, our record against the AFC East has been 4-2. That seems about right again this season. Split with the Dolphins and Jets, who are both good. Sweep the Patriots, who suck and have a rookie Quarterback. Jaguars (Home) were 9-8 and beat us last year. Seahawks (Road) and Colts (Road) were also 9-8 a season ago, just missing the playoffs. That leaves the only two bottom-level teams on our schedule, Cardinals (Home) and Titans (Home). We should be favored to win in all of these. But we also usually drop at least one game we should win each season. So let's say 4-1 in these. That gives us an overall record of 11-6 (same as last year), which would definitely make the playoffs. It was barely enough to win the East though. Now consider the games we play different from our other AFC East competition: - The Jets play the Broncos (instead of Chiefs), Vikings (instead of Lions) and Steelers (instead of Ravens). - The Dolphins play the Raiders (instead of Chiefs), Packers (instead of Lions) and Browns (instead of Ravens).

I get what you are saying. Hardy seemed more productive in the preseason games I watched. But you also need to keep in mind that we traded for the CB/Returner from the Jets. Keeping Hardy too would have given us 8 cornerbacks, versus 4 defensive ends. This is definitely something I believe that Brandon Beane needs to consider in future drafts. Every spring he seems to prioritize draft capital (10 picks last year, 8 next year). Then he struggles to keep his picks on the roster when cut day comes along. We seem to lose a member of our draft class every year to other teams. Compared to other top NFL teams, the Bills have a very deep roster... but they also seem to lack impact/superstars. Look at us against the Chiefs, 49ers, etc. It's very possible this is a byproduct of Beane prioritizing quantity over quality. If Beane can consistently find solid players on Day 2-3 of the draft (only to later be forced to cut them)... then why not use some of those resources to move-up in the 1st Round and get a better prospect?

The guy showed promise (against mostly 3rd/4th stringers), but let's take a breather for a second. As a cornerback, Hardy would have been #5 on the depth chart behind Douglas, Benford, Elam and Ingram. In the slot, he would be #3 on the depth chart behind Johnson and Lewis. Does this team have space for another developmental DB, who isn't likely to crack the starting lineup for another 2-3 seasons at best? Especially when you consider this regime can pretty much draft and develop good CBs at will. I was surprised they cut him too. But there is sound reasoning behind it. It's great to have a deep pipeline. But guys who aren't going to see the field NEED to be contributors on special teams. They saw more value in replacing him with a returner, who will actually touch the ball multiple times every week.

My guess is that Hardy was drafted 90% for his return abilities, and they just weren't impressed with that aspect of his game. Yes, he looked good as a Cornerback in the preseason. But the Bills already have Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford and Taron Johnson as starters, Kaiir Elam itching to get on the field and another promising youngster in Jamarcus Ingram. They probably value a guy who will actually play this season (as a returner), over a guy who would be the #5 outside guy the entire year. Hopefully they can bring him back to the practice squad.