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Everything posted by mjt328
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The Rooney Rule (still) isn’t working?
mjt328 replied to wppete's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
If we want to eradicate racism in American society, then we need to stop separating and judging each other based on race/skin color. To me, this seems like common sense. This is the way I'm raising my children to see the world. But the push for "diversity" is doing the complete opposite. Especially when an employer is looking to hire someone. Race and skin color becomes the first thing considered. It becomes the primary way a potential candidate is classified. Not by qualifications or experience. Not work ethic. Not organizational fit. But the pigment of their skin. -
I think McDermott's conservatism caught up to him in this game.
mjt328 replied to njbuff's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Where was he conservative? The offense came out of the gate swinging, and immediately went down to score a touchdown on the first drive. Early second quarter, the Bills were up 7. We drive down and take a shot at the sideline. John Brown fails to tap his feet. We settle for a field goal. Next drive we are up 10-0 with time ticking down in the half. We take a shot at the end zone, but Duke Williams can't bring it in. Another field goal. Our second drive in the 3rd Quarter, we get into the red zone again. But JJ Watt gets a sack, and we are forced to take yet another field goal. The next time we get the ball, the score is 16-7. We start moving the ball again and Josh Allen fumbles it back to the Texans. From this point on, the Bills get ridiculously aggressive. To the point of going for it on 4th-27 when most coaches would have punted. And if anything, they didn't run the ball enough in OT. For some reason, blaming the coach is always the first reaction out of sports fans. And most of the time it's nonsense. The Bills coaching staff put out a very solid gameplan, which completely shut-down the Texans offense in the first half and put together four strong drives by midway through the 3rd Quarter. Each time the Bills failed to get into the end zone and settled for a field goal, it was due to an offensive player failing to execute. Brown not getting his feet in bounds. Williams not coming down with the catch. Cody Ford getting beat on a sack. Do you blame the coaching staff for Deshaun Watson dragging three defenders into the end zone on the Texans first touchdown? Do you blame the coaching staff for Allen fumbling the ball (yet again) when hit from behind on the next possession? Do you blame the coaching staff for All-Pro shutdown cornerback Tre White allowing a 41 yard bomb? Do you blame the coaching staff for two straight offensive line breakdowns, causing us to lose 33 yards with the game on the line? How about two blockers failing to touch a linebacker on Allen's run in overtime? Or Allen totally missing Williams on a swing pass that could have gotten us into field goal range? Or the defense getting too deep and reacting too slow, allowing a 3rd-18 conversion? Or two pass rushers hitting the quarterback and totally failing to get him down? -
What % did Josh improve from yr1 to yr2?
mjt328 replied to whatdrought's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
He improved his completion percentage from around 52% to about 58%. About six percentage points. Ultimately, we want him to settle between 60-65% as his career goes along. The closer he can get to 65 the better. So let's say he needs to go another seven points to reach his goal. On completion percentage, he's improved about 50% of his goal. In YPA, he took a marginal increase of 6.4 to 6.7. I would like to see this number over the 7.5 mark for sure. So in this area, I think he only jumped about 25-30 percent of where we want him. In scoring, he went from a 10-12 ratio on touchdowns/interceptions (0.83) to 20-9 (2.22). When you add in rushing touchdowns, he was 29-9 (3.22). Personally, I would like to see him jump his ratio to 3:1 in just passing. So he's probably about 60% of the way in this area. Exactly one season ago, Josh Allen's biggest critics were saying he: a) Could not be an efficient quarterback b) Made too many mistakes Twelve months later, his biggest strides were in efficiency (completion percentage) and in avoiding turnovers (TD/INT ratio). This tells me that Allen and our coaching staff can clearly see where he needs work, have focused on improving in those areas, and have taken some big steps in fixing those problems. He's a teachable player, who has the drive and work ethic to make himself better. I fully expect Allen to spend the offseason focusing on his footwork in the pocket, and cleaning up his deep ball accuracy. And there is a good reason to believe he will get better there too. -
The Bills had SO many opportunities to win that game, and it had absolutely nothing to do with the refs. The touchback call was something I've never seen before in 30 years of watching the NFL. I think the refs were totally confused, and weren't sure what to do. At that point, we were still up 13-0 and in full control of the game. The refs had nothing to do with us allowing 19 unanswered points over the next 30 minutes. The Cody Ford block was crap. Totally agree there. But if Josh Allen throws an accurate swing pass to Duke Williams on 3rd Down, we make up all of that yardage. But he totally missed him. The refs just barely missed a Delay of Game on the 3rd-18. But it was still our defense that allowed him to get 19 yards on the play. You cannot blame the refs for them getting too deep and taking too long to react. We stop them there, we get the ball back and another chance to win.
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It's a great debate. Is it better to run a simplified scheme that is easy for players to understand, but also easy for opponents to figure out? Or is it better to be complicated, and always have the defense on its toes? Very true on all points. Early on, Brady was very much a game-manager, and the Patriots were not very explosive. What increased over the years was their efficiency. So instead of putting together 3-4 lengthy scoring drives per game, they could put together 6-7. Probably a mix. I think some players like John Brown and Cole Beasley will benefit from another offseason with Allen/Daboll. A player like Knox drops passes because he wasn't a receiving threat in college, and needs to work on his hands. It's a mix of everything. I'm extremely excited about Allen's potential future, and his improvement over the season. But I can't pretend he's anywhere close where he needs to be. At this point, I still think he ranks in the mid-20s against other NFL quarterbacks. When an offense struggles, the quarterback is a great place to start. And Allen is still a below average starter. Not a finished product by any means. But a lot of our problems are absolutely on him. When it comes to Daboll, an argument can be made that he needs to adjust/simplify his scheme to better fit these players. But an argument can also be made that Allen (and the rest of the team) will be better in the long-run by NOT making it easy.
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The average fan likes to blame coaching first. In reality, the primary cause is usually players and execution. Brian Daboll's offensive philosophy is the same that you have seen from Josh McDaniels/Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots for many years. Our players just haven't been efficient enough to score enough points. The pressure will be on Josh Allen to further improve and clean-up his mechanics in the offseason. We need him to get that completion percentage in the 62-63 range to execute this offense at a high level. It would also help if guys like Cody Ford (better pass blocking or slide inside to guard), Dawson Knox (less drops) make strides in their second seasons. Not to mention another RB with fresh legs, and a third WR to keep the pass defense honest.
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Brett Kollerman: Patroits Defense has been figured out
mjt328 replied to Protocal69's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The Patriots were a victim of their own ego on Sunday. They figured the Dolphins were pushovers, and wanted to roll into the playoffs with a dominating 30+ point win. So instead of doing what works for their offense, they came out throwing - which is literally the weakest part of their team. With that said, don't underestimate how dangerous the Patriots are going to be in the playoffs. Yes, they are seriously flawed. Yes, Tom Brady is now a shell of himself. But they won't be underestimating or looking past anyone in the postseason. They still have (way) more experience than anyone else, and know how to win playoff games. And their performance against us in Week 16 proves they can still put together some offense, especially when their backs are against the wall. Tennessee needs to be watching the film from Week 16 against us, and not from Week 17 against the Dolphins. Because that is how Josh McDaniels will be rolling on Saturday. -
Bills' mishandling of the CB position
mjt328 replied to Giuseppe Tognarelli's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Do you bother to read the countless responses? To create a "buffer" at the cornerback position, you absolutely MUST take away depth at a different position. The NFL allows for 53 roster spots overall, and 46 active slots on game day. There are 11 starters on offense, 11 on defense, a kicker, a punter and long-snapper. If you deactivate 7 starters (which they did), that still leaves us only 28 backups available that can play. You cannot expect 28 guys to handle 100% of offensive, defensive and special teams snaps. The Bills were comfortable playing out the season with 4 cornerbacks, because they have a safety (Siran Neal) who plays both positions. It's the same idea behind carrying only 9 offensive linemen, because Spencer Long and Ryan Bates can handle multiple spots. If we add an extra CB or OL, then we can only carry five WRs during the season. Or we can only carry three RBs during the season. The NFL leaves virtually no room for error with roster spots. Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott went light at CB/OL because they were counting on versatility helping with depth. But when we hit Week 17, they didn't have the numbers at that position to sit the starters. They were left with no choice, and as (bad) luck has it - we suffered injuries during the game at CB and OL. -
Bills' mishandling of the CB position
mjt328 replied to Giuseppe Tognarelli's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
We only have 44 active players on the roster for game day. It's absolutely impossible to sit EVERY SINGLE STARTER. Even if you believe our entire bench could play 100% of snaps and special teams, that still leaves 3 starters that need to play. Every player you add, requires another to be released. So you are suggesting that we SHOULD have signed an extra CB (let's say EJ Gaines or Captain Munnerlyn) to ensure that we can sit Levi Wallace for the meaningless Week 17 game. Then who do you release? Release an offensive lineman on the back-end of the roster, and that means you need to push more starters at THAT POSITION into the starting lineup on Week 17. You are simply trading the risk with Wallace for the risk with Dawkins/Spaine/Morse/Feliciano/Ford. Release a linebacker, and you may be forced to play Matt Milano or Tremaine Edmunds the entire game. Etc., etc. I think you get the idea. In my opinion, the only questionable move was starting Josh Allen. He was in a no-win situation, playing with backup receivers. Agree 100%. -
Our priority in the offseason should be re-signing Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson. After that, I agree that going after a top Free Agent edge rusher would be ideal. For everyone worried about salary cap space: 1. Trent Murphy can be released a year before his contract expires, with a dead cap of only $1.7 million. This would save us over $7 million. 2. Jerry Hughes can be released in 2021 (at 33 years old), with a dead cap of just over $2 million. This would save us about the same as Murphy, giving us another $7.3 million in cap space. So to summarize, by releasing Murphy this offseason and Hughes next year, we can probably cover a Lawson extension for two full seasons with little to no effect on the salary cap.
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Only 1 TD on Opening Drives, 4 FG's...Coaching or Players?
mjt328 replied to BigDingus's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The offense as a whole is inconsistent. It's easier to pinpoint the first drive of the game, or the first drive of the half. But in truth, they usually only put together 3-4 good drives per game. And the rest of the time, they struggle. It's a combination of things. Josh Allen has improved dramatically from his rookie season, but still has plenty of things to work on. Our offensive line is light-years better than in 2018, but still has moments where blocking is bad. Our receiving corps has also been significantly upgraded, but there are still too many drops and times where nobody gets open. The running game seems to roll with Devon Singletary, but stalls with everyone else. Another offseason of Allen developing, our skill players working together, and talent additions through the draft/free agency will hopefully push this offense up a couple notches. If the defense can maintain and our offense start putting another 5 points per game on the board, I have no doubts we can win the AFC East and push for a Super Bowl next season. -
Give me a break. They allowed 16, 19, 24, 24 to the teams you listed above. The league average is around 23 points. And these were among their worst performances all year. If you don't think the Bills have a good defense, you don't know football. There are a combination of factors that have resulted in us not throwing for 300 yards during that time span. Having a top defense and conservative-leaning coaching staff is very high among them. Below average quarterback play for good chunks of that stretch does factor in. But it's not the ONLY reason. Tyrod Taylor was an average/below average passer. We all know that. Josh Allen struggled heavily most of his rookie season. And despite making some great strides, he's not yet where he needs to be. We all know that as well. Despite that, there are 3-4 instances this season where Allen easily could/would have thrown for 300 yards -- but our coaching staff decided to spend the last 20 minutes of the game chewing clock. Bottom line... stats don't matter. They can sometimes be helpful in revealing what is going on, but they can also be misleading. Our team cares about one statistic. That is a 10-4 record. And that's all you should care about too.
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Please stop with the 300 yard games, and yardage rankings. They are such a small sample of what is going on. To hit 300 yards, a QB almost always needs to throw around 40 times per game (minimum). Josh Allen hit that number exactly ONE time this season (41 against Cleveland). This just isn't a team that NEEDS to be aggressive in the passing game. The defense is too good. Every time Allen has been on pace for a 300 yard game, the offense has gone into a shell and started running out clock. In my opinion, a very good game would be averaging over 8.0 YPA and 65% completion percentage. Allen did that twice this season (Washington and Dallas), and was very close against the Giants.
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Outside of Amari Cooper (who is very inconsistent himself), the 2020 free agent WRs aren't very impressive. It's hard to get excited about AJ Green, when you consider his age and recent injury history. At the same time, this is considered an absolutely fantastic draft class for the position. So if I'm Brandon Beane, at least one of those Day 1-2 Picks is in the reserve for a top receiver. I wouldn't be opposed to spending two picks. I'm a big believer that RB is a position for youth, and should be obtained through the draft. As much a someone like Derrick Henry could help this team, I'm not wasting any salary cap space on another veteran runner. As usual, there are expected to be some really good mid-round options. So I'm targeting a versatile/tough between-the-tackles RB around the 3rd-4th Round to complement Devin Singletary. Although I believe Cody Ford should be given more time to develop, I also believe we should hedge our bets with him at Right Tackle. He's clearly been the weak-spot on the O-Line, especially against speed rushers. If we are going to be a true contender next year, we can't sit around waiting for another young player to not be liability. I think we should go after a veteran upgrade to Ty Nsekhe. Then if Ford doesn't show improvement in training camp, we can bump him inside for good. Defensive End surprisingly has some decent options in free agency - assuming a lot of these guys don't get franchised or re-signed by their current teams. And the draft options don't look great for a team drafting in the mid-20s. Personally, I would offer Shaq Lawson an extension (along with Jordan Phillips). Then go after someone like Jadeveon Clowney or Yannick Ngakou to add to the rotation. Don't worry about investing a good-sized contract, because Trent Murphy can be released with little cap hit, and Jerry Hughes will be on the last year of his contract. With the cap dollars we have available, I'm also prioritizing Cornerback in free agency. Levi Wallace and Kevin Johnson are both very solid depth. But I wouldn't mind an upgrade across from Tre White. With my other draft picks, I'm prioritizing Linebacker. Hopefully we can convince Lorenzo Alexander to come back another season. And I absolutely love Matt Milano/Tremaine Edmunds as our main starters. But this is one position that would absolutely kill us if there were injuries. We need depth badly.
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Really astounding how far we've come in 13 months
mjt328 replied to TheBrownBear's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I agree with this. If you could filter through the overreactions and "sky is falling" posts, there was a lot evidence (especially in the final quarter of 2018) that Buffalo was about to turn the corner. The expectation from a lot of us on this board has always been 9-10 wins, hopefully a playoff berth and probably an early exit from the postseason. As fans, I always try to encourage patience with young players and new coaches. It takes time to overhaul a franchise like Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott have done, and it was always going to have rough patches along the way. Last year we had a rookie Quarterback, and a rookie at the most important position in our defensive scheme, Middle Linebacker. There were many games both guys were huge liabilities. But there were also signs of what they could soon become. -
anybody else think we should have kept ivory over gore
mjt328 replied to tcampbell104's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Not sure what kind of leadership Frank Gore has brought to the team. But based on what we've seen with on-field production, I hope Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott move in a completely different direction next year. Running Back is a young man's position. Since this regime took over, we've signed Mike Tolbert, Chris Ivory and Frank Gore. All three guys have been counted on for significant carries, and expected to handle short-yardage for the offense. And all three guys wore-out down the stretch. Devon Singletary is proof you don't need to throw big $$ at the position, or invest a high draft pick. However, I do believe RB is a position better suited for fresh legs. Instead of wasting a roster spot on some aging veteran, I hope that Beane uses some of our picks on improving the run game. -
Very simple. I think the coaching staff starts getting aggressive when it becomes a better strategy than remaining conservative. A common argument on this board is that we lost the Browns game BECAUSE the coaching staff was playing for the field goal. I think that's very debatable for many reasons. But even if you believe it, the Bills still have compiled a 10-4 record by playing this way. It's hard to argue that changes are necessary, because of ONE GAME we lost by 3 points. Quite simply, the coaching staff (correctly) recognizes that we have a Top 3 defense. In most games, they can count on us allowing less than 17 points. Worst case scenario, they may allow in the low 20s. Go back and look at every game outside if the Eagles. The times that we've struggled to put teams away, it was almost ALWAYS due to turnovers keeping an outmatched opponent in the game. Especially during the first half of the season. McDermott knows the recipe for this team to win games. If the offense isn't turning the ball over, and can put together 3-4 scoring drives per week, we are going to win the vast majority of the time.
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Gore never had top-end speed, but you can definitely see the difference in how he bursts through the hole now. He's got nothing left in the tank, and it's the difference between 1-2 yard gains and 4-5 yard gains. If you watch those plays again, I don't think they were designed outside runs. In fact, it was pretty clear on the 2nd-Goal play (after the White INT) that Gore was going to throw it, but then pulled the ball down and took a loss. There was another play that looked more like an inside run that he tried bouncing outside. When it comes to DiMarco and Smith as passing targets, I think that Daboll is trying to show the defense run-heavy personnel, and then catch them off-guard by splitting them out wide. The problem is, both are terrible at catching the ball and getting YAC. In a nutshell, I think it really shows one of the big things this offense is missing. We need some dual threats. Tight Ends that can block well and be a threat in the passing game. Running Backs that are dangerous on the ground and the air. Receivers that have both deep speed, and the ability to win contested balls. When you have offensive personnel like the Bills (who are one-trick ponies), it forces you to either tip your hand to the defense, or put those players in a position to do things they aren't good at.
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Fans get upset because they always want the team to play aggressive, and destroy the opponent by 20-30 points. But sometimes, conservative is the right approach. This coaching staff understands the strengths/weaknesses of the team. They knew once we got up by 7 points, it was going to be very difficult for Pittsburgh to drive and score a touchdown. They had a better chance of walking away with a W by grinding the clock and trusting for a defensive stop, than by having our offense try to put more points on the board. Their strategy has resulted in a 10-4 record this year. And in 3 of their 4 losses, they were in a position to tie or win at the very end. I agree that it's INCREDIBLY frustrating to watch Frank Gore right now. He's got absolutely no explosion, and is a sitting duck when the other team knows he's getting the ball. But can you really blame them for giving Gore the ball when they have the lead... considering that Devon Singletary is struggling badly with fumbles? The offense has improved greatly from 2017, but it's still a work in progress. Coaching and playcalling is not the biggest cause for our 2019 struggles. We need a between-the-tackles runner with a little bit of juice left in his legs. We need another 1-2 receiving threats - preferably guys with more dependable hands. And we need our Quarterback to continue improving his game.
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Lose to New England next week and get a bye week.
mjt328 replied to 0017's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Yep. Ryan Fitzpatrick can deliver the crushing blow to the Patriots, help us win the AFC East, then sign a one-day contract to retire as a Buffalo Bill. Meanwhile, the Dolphins lose out on drafting one of the top QBs. -
I certainly don't want to downplay our defensive talent. But it's really the coaching staff that makes this unit special. Once Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier figure out what the other team is trying to do, it's pretty much over. Notice that almost every time an opposing teams puts together a scoring drive, it comes in one of these three situations: - The first 1-2 drives of the game, when our coaches are still figuring out the offensive gameplan. - The first 1-2 drives of the second half, right after there have been some halftime adjustments. - When gifted a short-field from a turnover or busted special teams play. The average team scores 23-24 points per game. In 14 games, we have allowed the league average exactly twice (31 to Philly, and 24 to Baltimore). We have allowed less than 20 points a total of 10 times. If Josh Allen can just fix-up a couple of his issues, we are a couple offensive pieces away from being a legitimate powerhouse.
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Lose to New England next week and get a bye week.
mjt328 replied to 0017's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Absolutely not. The Bills need to win-out, crushing the Patriots and the Jets. This will leave the door open for... wait for it... RYAN FITZPATRICK to cement himself as a Buffalo hero, and do what he could never do while actually playing for the team. Win us the AFC East! -
Love to see guys with entertaining/fun personalities, who aren't also self-centered and distracting to the rest of the team.
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When it comes to young Quarterbacks, it's not about how you start. It's about how you finish. Some guys come into the NFL with big flaws in mechanics, very little understanding of how to read a defense, and almost no experience running a professional-type offense. But they have elite-level physical skills, and coaches believe they can develop them into something great. Other guys come out of college very polished/developed as passers, and experience some immediate success when inserted into a basic/stripped-down offense. But they have very little upside, and generally crash after defensive coordinators get a little bit of game film on them. You will notice that NFL scouts and GMs seem to like the "big-upside" guys earlier in the draft, hoping they can eventually turn those guys into franchise QBs. They don't care so much about how good a player is on Day 1 of training camp, and more about how good he's going to be at the end of Year 4. The guys who come into the league "pro-ready" and little room for improvement are usually Day 3 picks (Rounds 4-7), because the professionals know they will ultimately max-out as backups in the league. This year, we have seen a huge number of QB injuries. So lots of backup-level young guys (Kyle Allen, Brandon Allen, Gardner Minshew, Duck Hodges, Mason Rudolph, David Blough, etc.) have gotten a chance to come off the bench and shine to some extent. Offensive coordinators simplify the gameplan to focus on what they do well. Defensive coordinators have no idea what to expect. And for a few weeks, they look surprisingly good. But then opponents figure out their limitations, and everything falls apart. A great example is Kyle Allen. After Cam Newton went down, he started with a 4-0 record. But then defenses figured out that he couldn't do much beyond throwing screen passes to Christian McCaffrey, and the Panthers have gone 1-6 since that great start. You are seeing the start of a similar trend with Minshew. Whether we are talking Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, etc. - it's simply way too early to make a determination on ANY of these guys. Last year, Mayfield was setting rookie passing records. This year he's got 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Daniel Jones looked brilliant early in the season, and now the New York media is wondering if the Giants should consider drafting a QB again in 2020. Josh Allen started with nothing but physical talent, and has improved dramatically. But if he can't overcome his struggles against heavy blitzing, he's ultimately not going to be the answer for us. Lamar Jackson will probably win MVP this year, but it's only a matter of time before defenses figure out how to keep him in the pocket.
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Joe B All-22 vs Baltimore from The Athletic
mjt328 replied to transplantbillsfan's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
This is what happens when the blocking has been terrible ALL GAME, and the quarterback knows he's got one last chance to make a play. He knew Brown got open on a similar route earlier in the game, and hoped he could do it again. He didn't.