mjt328

It wouldn't surprise me if the Bills are able to bring back both Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson at very reasonable deals. I don't think the market is quite as high on those two guys as most Bills fans believe. I've looked through numerous NFL sites regarding free agents, and neither Phillips or Lawson is on anyone's radar. I haven't found one writer (and many of these guys are pretty plugged in with league front offices) that has either of these guys in the Top 100 upcoming free agents, or one of the top targets at his position. Now, it's completely possible that real NFL GMs see those guys differently from the average observer. But from what I can tell, the top DE's that are being talked about include Jadeveon Clowney, Yannick Ngakou, Arik Armstead, Matthew Judon, Bud Dupree, Dante Fowler, Shaq Barrett. The top DTs seem to be Chris Jones, Leonard Williams, DJ Reader, Javon Hargrave, Ndamukong Suh, Michael Brockers, etc. Bottom line, I don't think these guys are going to land Top 10-15 contracts or their positions or anywhere close to $10 million plus. My guess is both Phillips and Lawson will be in the $6-8 million per year range. If they leave Buffalo, it will be likely due to factors beyond Brandon Beane's control. My biggest concern with both guys is pride. I think both guys may be overrating their own value, and may get offended if Buffalo doesn't offer them their perceived value. We may have already burned the bridge with Lawson by not activating his 5th Year Option. Phillips meanwhile is always on social media defending his play, and legitimately appears to see himself as one of the league's top players. Beane will probably give both guys fair offers, but won't overpay or break the bank.

I've thought the same thing when watching Patrick Mahomes, and wondered if it could work for our offense. His distance from the line of scrimmage often gives him 10-15 yards of space before the pass rush can get close to him, and gives the receivers more time to get deep. Josh Allen is one of the few players (besides Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, etc.) with enough arm strength to make this work. To the person that said our O-Line can't hold on a 7-step drop.... watch how Kansas City executes these plays. Mahomes doesn't do this from under center. He takes very deep shotgun snaps, then continues moving backwards or laterally as the play happens, instead of stepping up into the pocket. The O-Line isn't forced to hold blocks longer than on normal pass plays.

Excellent post. There is not a huge separation between teams at the NFL level. Combine that with the nature of the sport (any given Sunday...), and it's really not a far-fetched idea for anyone to beat anyone. In general, the 2019 Buffalo Bills were good enough to "hang" with the elite teams, play 50-50 against the other playoff-caliber teams, and consistently defeat pretty much everyone below that level. So no. It's not unreasonable to see them pulling out a win against a team like the Chiefs or the 49ers. But it was always very unlikely they could win 3-4 straight games against teams of that caliber -which is what it would have taken to win it all. Building a Super-Bowl winner doesn't require building the BEST team in the league, or following some magic formula. It's about building a team that can CONSISTENTLY compete and win games against the other elite teams in the league. If a GM can keep his team at that level for several years, odds are they should win some playoff games. Win some consecutive playoff games and that puts them in position to take the trophy. Bottom line, the Bills had a championship-caliber defense in 2019. It certainly wasn't perfect, and there were times they struggled with tackling, run defense and applying pressure on the QB. But that side of the ball was capable of CONSISTENTLY shutting down the league's best offenses. On the other hand, the offense struggled weekly to put up 25 points, regardless of who they played. The path to the Super Bowl would have probably included the Chiefs, Titans and 49ers. No way we survive that stretch with a below-average offense. The good news is, the Bills are close. And like I said, it isn't about fielding the best team in the NFL in 2020. It's about bumping ourselves into that "elite tier" of teams, with the Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Saints, Packers, etc. Scoring another 4-5 points each game would put us there. And our front office is building us for the long-haul, not sacrificing the future for 1-2 years as a contender (see Rams).

The Saints should have gone to the Super Bowl in 2018, if not for the terrible no-PI call. This year they ended 13-3, despite their starting QB missing a quarter of the season. New Orleans is still very much a contender.

Every year (just prior to free agency), this topic pops up. It doesn't matter how successful the Bills are in attracting free agents (and by all accounts, we did a fantastic job last season), there are still self-conscious Bills fans who are totally convinced we are a totally undesirable location for NFL players. It's just not true. Yes, Buffalo is cold. Yes, Buffalo doesn't have as much to do as bigger cities. But some people really don't mind the cold. And there are lots of people who don't WANT to live in a crowded metropolitan area. There are multitudes of factors that go into where free agents decide to play. And I would imagine that weather is pretty low on most people's lists. Money is most definitely near the top. As would playing with a contender/winning organization. Comfort with a particular coach, coaching staff, scheme or other players is probably very high as well. Some players with families/children are going to factor in schools, just like regular people. An article came out just this week on Richard Sherman, who was courted highly by the Detroit Lions. But he DID NOT want to play for Matt Patricia, because he didn't feel his personality fit the "Patriot-Way" that was being installed. Go back to the early days of free agency (right after our Super Bowl years), and we had no problem attracting the biggest names on the market. Bryce Paup, Chris Spielman and Ted Washington were eager to come and play for us, because we had a winning reputation. Mario Williams was sold on his love for the hunting grounds. Takeo Spikes was impressed by the fans. Last year, numerous guys talked about wanting to play with Josh Allen or falling in love with our state-of-the-art workout facility. Bottom line. If a player doesn't want to come to Buffalo because of the snow, or because it doesn't have a hot club scene... then they probably won't fit this team anyway.

The Pro-Bowl is a popularity contest. Who cares? Eli Manning was consistently a Top 10 during the peak of his career. I'll concede that. But I would never put him in the same category as the elite guys of his era (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees). In my opinion, he's a few notches below the next tier of guys (Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner) that are borderline Hall of Fame quality. I would even put him below other guys I also wouldn't put in the Hall of Fame (Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers). At best, he's in the same discussion as Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Matthew Stafford, etc. Never argued that a guy needed to be all-time elite to be in the Hall of Fame. But I think he needed to be elite during the time he played. I would certainly place Kelly, Elway and Warner in that category. I think Aikman was overrated, and I'm too young to have watched Bradshaw play. Playing at a "high level for many years" is not good enough. Those guys are worthy of having their team retire a jersey. The HOF should be reserved for the All-Pros of the All-Pros.

There are no "requirements" for Hall of Fame entry. My standard is the player being the BEST OF THE BEST during the majority of his playing career. Eli Manning was a good quarterback. But not in that category. Based on what? Touchdowns? Passing yards? Passer rating? Like I said in my original post... I don't care what a guy's final stats compile to be, especially when he played 16 full years during the most pass-happy era in the history of the NFL. If you go by a season-by-season basis (comparing him against his counterparts in the same playing era), he was extremely average. Just looking at yardage, Matt Ryan is already Top 10 and may be Top 5 before his career is over. He is not Hall of Fame worthy. Matthew Stafford is already Top 20 and could be in the Top 10 when he retires. Not Hall of Fame worthy. Guys like Carson Palmer and Vinny Testaverde are in the Top 15 currently. Team accomplishment. Again. These guys played in a totally different era, with completely different rules. If you go back into the late 1980s and early 1990s, there was absolutely no doubt who the BEST OF THE BEST quarterbacks were. Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, John Elway and Joe Montana. To a lesser extent, you can also argue Warren Moon. Their accomplishments were not just about rings, not just about stats, but about domination at the position for their era. You aren't getting an argument for me about Troy Aikman. He shouldn't have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and was borderline to make it at all. He was overrated because of Super Bowl rings and the Cowboys team success. Teams feared Emmitt Smith and the Dallas O-Line. Not the quarterback. Phillip Rivers was better than Eli Manning, but I wouldn't put him into the Hall of Fame either. The current QBs that I would put into the Hall of Fame on first ballot are Tom Brady and Drew Brees. I think Ben Roethlisberger deserves to eventually make it (his overall game was way more dominating than either Rivers or Manning), along with Aaron Rodgers.

Absolutely not. He was a good/above average QB, who was propped-up (even from his college days) because of the Manning name. His only HOF-worthy accomplishment was winning two Super Bowls, which was a team accomplishment and not just because of him. If anyone has a reason he is worthy (besides the rings), then I would absolutely LOVE to hear it. In every way, he was middle of the pack. For every single one of his 16 years in the NFL. He never had a single wow season, and was never close to discussion as league MVP. His teams were never dominating in passing offense. Teams did not fear playing the Giants because of him. There wasn't a point during his career that anyone considered Eli Manning to be a Top 5 quarterback in the league. Supporters are going to make an argument for Manning, simply because he played 16 years in the NFL (almost never missing a game) and when everything is totaled-up, his stats will compare favorably to other Hall of Fame Quarterbacks from the 70's and 80's. But despite playing in a pass-heavy league his entire career, his AVERAGE stats were as follows: 60.3% completion percentage (average) 7.02 yards per attempt (average) 241.6 yards per game (average) 1.55 touchdowns per game (average) 1.50 touchdown/interception ratio (below average) He's not a Hall of Fame player, and putting him in will dilute the accomplishment for everyone else.

Lots of crazy things could happen between now and April. Who would have thought Kyler Murray would have gone #1 to the Cardinals at this time last season? With Carolina bringing in Joe Brady as offensive coordinator, I'm curious if they might try to make a move for the #1 pick (they currently sit at #7). If you are the Panthers, the idea of reuniting Brady/Burrows is very tempting. And if you are the Bengals, would a massive load of picks be worth moving down 6 spots and maybe still getting Tua or Justin Herbert? It's not totally inconceivable. I'm friends with the brother of an NFL scout. And despite how great Burrows was this year, I can tell you that (at least some) teams are WAY more excited about Trevor Lawrence coming out next year. It's something to consider when looking at the "bad" teams who are in a position to draft a QB in 2020.

Stats can be misleading without context. At this point, I don't care what PFF or Football Outsiders says... or what random stat is brought up to criticize individual players in our defense. I've read recent articles that say Tre White is overrated, Jordan Phillips is a below average lineman, Matt Milano can't tackle, etc. Now we are knocking Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, who are two key pieces in one of the NFL's best pass defenses 3 years running. Bottom line -- this defense performed at a Super Bowl level in 2019. Outside of maybe the Philadelphia game, they put us in a position to win every single other game this year. That would be 16 of 17 total games on the year. If we could count on our offense to put up just 25 points, we would have beaten the Patriots both times, the Browns, the Ravens, the final Jets game, and the Wild Card Round. Like I said in another thread... I doubt anyone could come up with more than 2-3 defenses that played better in 2019 than the Bills. And that is being extremely generous. However, Micah Hyde was our BEST RANKED player for the year. And he wasn't even Top 10 at his position. How can PFF justify that?

What O-Line free agent additions would make us dominant? Our weak spot on the O-Line was easily Cody Ford. Who was a rookie. Now, I would be OK with sliding him inside and going after another Right Tackle to start. But there aren't really any RTs available that would make us a dominant unit. The best is probably Bryan Bulaga, who is the NFL's definition of average. Not exactly a guy that would give us a killer unit. If you slide Ford inside, then you probably want to give him a chance to develop there. Yes, there are some pretty good interior linemen available like Brandon Scherff and Joe Thuney. But they will probably demand Top 3-5 money at the position. Is it really great use of cap dollars to invest in one of those guys, when you have a 2nd Round Pick developing and a guy who played pretty good (Jon Feliciano) already on a bargain contract? I just can't see Beane make another move here, especially after landing Mitch Morse last season. The best LT available is probably Anthony Castonzo (who very likely won't be hitting free agency anyway). He is generally considered a pretty good player, but not a great one. Without considering his age (31) and contract, I would only consider him a marginal upgrade over Dion Dawkins. I think Dawkins improved quite a bit this year, and a smart team lets him play out his contract year before looking for a replacement. Also.... two playoff wins by the Tennessee Titans does not suddenly resurrect 20th century football. Just like the Rams-Chiefs game from last year didn't suddenly make defense irrelevant (like so many were claiming). The Bills need more than a dominant line and running back to take the next step.

It's hard to be great at everything. Our defense is a little bit undersized compared to many others around the league. Our primary focus is shutting down passing attacks, and we are quite possibly the #1 defense in that area. On the flip-side, that leaves us vulnerable (at times) to the more physical teams with big offensive linemen and strong running games. And yes, it also causes us to miss some tackles. The good news is, very few teams are built for this kind of power running game. And even fewer coaches are willing to stick with the running game for a full 4 quarters. Our defense is also usually pretty disciplines with gap control. That's why Philadelphia was pretty much their only "bad" performance all season. It was a perfect storm of the opponent staying dedicated to the power run game, and our defense having an off-day staying in position.

Good player. But I'm also worried about his attitude and whether he's a team-first guy. I had the same questions when he came out of college.

I haven't seen much Tyler Kroft love on this board. Most consider him very replaceable. People seem to be more excited about our younger guys with Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney. The problem with Tight End this year, is that replacement options look pretty weak. The highest ranked draft options are considered late Day 2 picks. The position is not strong or deep this year. Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper are the best Free Agent options on the market. Henry has been very good at times, but has even more injury questions than Kroft. The more I think about it, Hooper would be nice to pair with Knox. But there is a good chance Atlanta doesn't let him even hit the market.

No flaming for the Marcus Mariota idea. I think he would be a very good backup option for us. That's OK if you aren't sold on Josh Allen. He clearly needs improvement before we can be fully confident he's the answer. But if you think the coaching staff doesn't give him AT LEAST 3 full seasons (and probably 4) before looking elsewhere, then you are fooling yourself.

One of the primary goals of Free Agency should be to setup the draft, and allow us to go BPA instead of desperately filling holes. This year's draft is very strong at certain positions, and very weak at others. From my vantage point, the #22 spot is going to be a great position for any team in need of a Wide Receiver. There also seem to be some good Running Back and Cornerback options that slip to us the 2nd Round. So my main targets in Free Agency will focus on the spots we probably can't fill in the draft. On top of that list should be pass rusher. My plan would be to re-sign Shaq Lawson, add another DE and then cut Trent Murphy. Guys like Jadeveon Clowney, Yannick Ngakoue or Arik Armstead would be great additions. There are some other guys on the market who could help as well, such as Bud Dupree, Matthew Judon or Shaq Barrett. Someone versatile like Kyle Van Noy would be a great replacement for Lorenzo Alexander. My guess is that Jordan Phillips will not have a huge market, seeing the high number of interior defensive linemen on the market. I would like to get him back on a fair deal. But if the Bills can't get him back, there are lots of other options like Chris Jones, Leonard Williams or Javon Hargrave. The WR market is fools gold this year. Amari Cooper is easily the best option, and he runs very hot and cold. AJ Green and Larry Fitzgerald are pretty much done. Like I said earlier, this is the position to hit in the draft. On the TE side, I think Hunter Henry is the best option available, but is too injury prone and undependable. I think Dawson Knox has more potential that Austin Hooper. Offensive Line is a position I would (maybe) be comfortable keeping relatively the same as 2019. The coaching staff really needs to settle on a long-term position for Cody Ford. If they are confident he can be our Right Tackle, then bring back Quinton Spain and leave the O-Line intact. If they think he projects to guard, then slide him inside and go after Jack Conklin. As a luxury, I would like to make an offer to Byron Jones. Pairing him with Tre White could really make our defense unstoppable.

I prefer to look at the NFL in tiers. Teams generally play 50/50 ball against teams in the same tier, struggle against those above them, and take care of business against those below them. In my opinion, the only clear Tier 1 teams in the AFC were the Ravens and Chiefs. The Patriots started the season there, but regressed badly in the final month. The Titans have played extremely well the last two weeks, but I think they get destroyed in the Championship game. The Bills were clearly a Tier 2 team this year. They split wins-losses against the other similar teams, such as the Titans, Steelers, Texans, Cowboys and Eagles. They were almost perfect against the NFL's average/below average teams. But they couldn't quite get over the hump against the teams on the next level - Ravens, Patriots. So unfortunately, I don't think the Bills would have been able to pull off 3 straight wins in the postseason. To get to the next level, the Bills need their offense to step up. That starts with Josh Allen progressing from a bottom quarter QB into the top half of the NFL. It will require more weapons in the passing and running game, and more consistent play from the offensive line.

Thanks to this weekend's games, the running game has once again become popular. And it's probably going to make Derrick Henry a very rich man. But don't be fooled. It's still not a wise strategy to pay big bucks to a Free Agent running back. More than any other position, RBs tend to wear down early in their careers. Most guys peak before they hit 25. Very few are still effective by the time they reach 30 years old. Guys with heavy workloads also tend to drop-off the next season. The smartest GMs tend to regularly target RBs in the 2nd-3rd Round (which is where Henry was originally drafted), let their guys walk after that rookie contract expires, and then rinse-repeat.

We definitely need another RB. But I would prefer a dual threat guy, instead of a one-dimensional short yardage bruiser. Whenever Frank Gore was on the field, it told the defense that we were probably going to run between the tackles. He wasn't really a threat to get around the edge. And he wasn't really a threat in the passing game. Combine that with Josh Allen's struggles with downfield passes, and teams had no problem loading the box against us. I'm a big believer in going BPA in the draft. But from what I've seen, the Bills should have a very good WR prospect fall into their lap in the 1st Round. And a pretty good RB prospect could likely slip to us in the 2nd Round.

Right now (based on average salary on Spotrac), Star Lotulelei is the 14th highest paid DT in the NFL. Jordan Phillips played out this season at #29. Ed Oliver's rookie contract puts him at #24. If we hand over $10-11 million per year to Phillips, that puts him just outside the Top 10 for the entire league. If Phillips is pushing for that much, I do think our front office lets him test free agency and he comes back to the table a little bit disappointed. But if we hand over $8-9 million per year - which I think is much more realistic - that puts him in the #15-20 range for DTs. That's not really crazy high. At the end of the day, if we are investing for the 14th, (and let's say) the 17th and 24th highest paid DTs in the league, I don't really think that's a massively huge investment. Especially when we already know this unit works well together.

Don't care how it happens. Time for a changing of the guard. The New England Patriots never won a thing while Jim Kelly and Dan Marino owned the AFC East. And nobody thought less of them winning after Kelly/Marino retired.

It will be interesting to see how the market plays out. I was looking at a few Free Agent rankings online, and neither site had Phillips or Lawson in the Top 25 free agents at their positions. It was pretty pathetic, but it makes me wonder if these guys are truly flying under the radar.

Amazing how our Defense was Top 5 in virtually every category, yet according to PFF almost all of our defensive players are below average. A couple weeks ago, one of their guys was defending the ridiculously low grade on Tre White. It was hilarious during the Pittsburgh introductions. I don't think the Bills had one guy in the Top 30 at their position on the defensive side. Hopefully the other teams looking for D-Line help take PFF as gospel. It may help us retain Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson on some bargain deals.

Age catches up to everyone. Eventually. And even though it seemed like this day was never going to come, it appears to have finally reached Tom Brady. Don't get me wrong. He still has the ability to have good games occasionally. But I don't think he's good enough to carry an offense by himself anymore, which is something he's been able to do for 15-20 years now. Outside of Randy Moss (for two seasons) and Rob Gronkowski (who was always hurt), Brady hasn't ever been surrounded with Pro-Bowl talent. His running backs have always been average/below average. And I believe guys like Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, Deion Branch and Troy Brown were successful because of Brady. Not the other way around. I think Bill Belichick realizes this. Which is why he drafted a Wide Receiver in the first round for the first time ever, and went after Antonio Brown when he got cut. He knows that Brady needs help now, and can't do it alone anymore. They desperately need to surround Brady with more talent. The problem is, the Patriots have a ton of free agents (around 20 with several starters, including Brady himself). They also don't have a second round pick, and will need to make the tough decision whether to use their first rounder on a future QB. The smart decision for the Patriots would be to cut ties with Brady, and start rebuilding for the future. But I don't know if their pride will allow this. If they bring back Brady, they won't be able to afford to give him enough surrounding help. And they will set-back their ability to build for the future.

How many of the 70% of black NFL players have aspirations to coach, versus those of other races? You cannot determine whether the Rooney Rule is achieving its desired results without knowing the demographics of potential candidates.