mjt328

Not really familiar with most of the Browns roster, but it sounds like he's got a similar skill-set as Lorenzo Alexander. In Nickel, we often used Alexander as an extra pass rusher. Kind of a hybrid DE-LB. So it's quite possible that Kirksey would still play 50% or more of the snaps, depending on the formation we come out in.

Define efficient. Just because an offense is more efficient, doesn't mean it's better.

Low risk. High reward. There was a time not very long ago that Josh Norman was among the league's best cornerbacks. But when he moved to Washington, it became clear that he was a scheme-dependent player. The guy was fantastic in zone. He was terrible in man. The good news is, we play mostly zone coverage and Sean McDermott was the defensive coordinator that got the most out of Norman. Hopefully this doesn't stop us from bringing back Kevin Johnson, because we could really use depth at the position. With Tre White, Levi Wallace, Norman and K.Johnson on the outside, then Taron Johnson at the nickel spot, we could completely wipe Cornerback off our needs list.

One of the traits that separates great GMs from the average/bad ones, is the ability to maximize draft position and find value. That means both moving up AND down. Through the NFL's history, fans seem to remember the times their team moved up in the draft and it didn't work out. For instance, the Bills with JP Losman or Sammy Watkins. Or the Saints with Ricky Williams. Or the Redskins with Robert Griffin III. But there is no evidence that "smart teams move down" as many like to insist. The Chiefs just won the Super Bowl on the back of Patrick Mahomes, who they moved up for. The Patriots are infamous for moving all over the board to get the players they want. In my opinion, Bill Belichick is only average at hitting on picks. But he's well above average at trading around to obtain value. Moving down is smart if you can get a player of equal value at the pick you drop to. But if you anticipate a drop in value before you are on the clock, then it can be valuable to make a trade up the board. Listening to Brandon Beane speak, I believe he understands this. It's hard to say whether a trade-down is smart at #22, without knowing what our needs are and who is available to us. As I mentioned in another thread, if we go into the draft just needing a WR, then it will probably be smart to move-down. Because the receivers likely available in the 40s, won't be much different than those in the 20s. But if we still need an edge rusher and someone like Epenesa or Chaisson is there, moving down may not be the prudent decision.

I like Justin Jefferson. And I understand that Wide Receiver is probably our biggest need. But I'm really thinking the Bills should stay-away from taking a WR at #22. As has been mentioned many times, this WR class is ridiculously deep. There are probably 7-8 guys of very similar value, who will be available from the late 1st Round and may even last until our 2nd Round selection. Is Jefferson that much better than Laviska Shenault, Tee Higgins, Jalen Reagor, Brandon Aiyuk, K.J. Hamler, Michael Pittman or Denzel Mims? I don't think so. The smart way to play this is either taking a different position at #22 (value at OT, DE and CB drops off quite a bit after the first group of guys), trade back and take a WR a few picks later, or just wait until the 2nd Round. If it looks like teams are making a run on the above guys and they won't last until #54, then Beane can always package a mid-rounder and move up a couple slots.

Arik Armstead is a 3-4 DE, not an edge rusher. If we signed him, it would probably be as a replacement for Jordan Phillips.

Good to see another Bills fan from St. Louis. I am also extremely obsessed with our team, and the draft. It drives my wife nuts. Just one nitpick on your post (which is a mistake I see quite a bit on this board)... Brandon Beane did not trade away the rights to Patrick Mahomes. He was with the Carolina Panthers during that draft, and did not join the Buffalo Bills organization until almost 2 weeks after. The draft concluded on April 29, 2017 and Beane was hired on May 9.

The same people clamoring to throw $13 million per year at Shaq Lawson are the same people who will complain every single week when he under-performs on that contract, and fails to hit double-digit sacks. For evidence, go back 3 years on this message board. You will find post after post complaining about needing a big DT to stuff the run. Now half the fans want to see Star Lotulelei cut. Even though the Bills have lots of salary cap space, it can disappear quickly. They need to make wise decisions, and not get themselves stuck with bad long-term contracts. The extra money they keep this season can be rolled over. And starting next season (2021), some real impact players will be coming up to free agency. Jordan Poyer, Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano, Jon Feliciano, etc. A year later we are looking at Tre White, Micah Hyde, John Brown, Jerry Hughes and more. Every F/A season, we hear the myth that salary cap doesn't matter. That the CBA has rendered it pointless. That the New Orleans Saints magically finds ways to get around it. None of this is true. All over the league, you see teams making tough decisions about which players to keep and which players to let go. Yes, there are ways to creatively structure contracts. But the teams that keep rolling are those who draft well, allowing them to easily replace veterans who they must let walk out the door. Teams that always count on free agency to save them generally have a short shelf-life.

Calling the season a "failure" is a bit harsh. Considering the number of teams who have broken out and then gone backwards the next season (most recently the Jaguars, Bears), I think Bills fans should expect an improved team overall. We need to see a better Josh Allen, and offense that can consistently score more points than 2019, and a defense that remains steady. Now does that result in winning the division? Maybe. Maybe not. The general assumption is that New England is going backwards, while both New York and Miami are not very good. But what if those assumptions are incorrect? What if the Bills win 12-13 games, and somehow that isn't enough to win the AFC East? I think it's a mistake to draw a line in the sand like this. Wait and see what happens, then judge whether our front office/coaching staff/players are moving in the right direction.

In 2018, the Cardinals drafted Josh Rosen at #10. He didn't play well as a rookie. Then a new coaching staff walked in the door, with the #1 draft pick and no ties to the previous regime's Rosen selection. With a fantastic pass rusher on the board (Nick Bosa), the Cardinals still decided to take Kyler Murray instead and then trade away Rosen. In 2019, the Redskins drafted Dwayne Haskins at #15. He didn't play well as a rookie. A new coaching staff has walked in the door, with the #2 draft pick and no ties to the previous regime's Haskins selection. There is a fantastic pass rusher on the board (Chase Young).... I can't say what the Redskins are thinking. But there is precedent. And most people believe Arizona made the correct decision last year. Because of their draft position, they gain very little from a smokescreen. They can't claim interest in Tua, but then ALSO shop the pick to needy QB teams wanting to move up. Everyone knows who is going #1, so it's not like they are trying to get another prospect to fall.

Of course I don't know what the Bills draft board looks like. But I think we should be able to get BPA at a position of need, without trading up. In general, I agree with your overall list. Three quarterbacks (Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert), two receivers (Jeudy, Lamb), one pass rusher (Young), one linebacker (Simmons) and one cornerback (Okudah) are absolutely certain to be gone. In addition to Brown at defensive tackle, I would add that Javon Kinlaw will definitely go in the Top 15. That's a total of ten players we won't have any chance at drafting. So if we are looking for a WR, OT, DE or CB, that leaves us the following: Ruggs, Shenault, Higgins, Wills, Thomas, Wirfs, Becton, Epenesa, Chaisson, Gross-Matos, Henderson and Fulton. That's a total of 12 players. We draft at #22. So at worst, only ONE of these guys is available. And if someone like Love, Swift, McKinney, Delpit or another surprise works his way into the top 21 picks (happens every year), the Bills may have their choice from a couple of these guys. Again, it really depends on what the Bills board looks like. Maybe they don't like some of the guys on my list, and maybe they value some guys higher. Maybe our needs change drastically after free agency. But as for now, I don't see trading up as necessary.

In my opinion, this was not a great decision by Tee Higgins. A guy like Chase Young can skip the Combine, because nothing he can do during the workout will increase his draft stock. The general consensus is that he's the #1 non-quarterback in the class already. Why take the risk of injury, or having a bad workout? For comparison, just look at Auburn's Derrick Brown. He was considered one of the elite Top 5 talents in this draft. But after a poor showing this weekend, people are suddenly starting to question his work ethic. Don't be surprised if the Combine drops him 5-6 draft slots. Higgins is not in the same boat. Entering this weekend, there were about 5-6 wide receivers who would be considered borderline 1st/2nd Rounders. He was in that same boat, and needed to do something positive to set himself apart. With all the competition at that position, it's very possible that Higgins drops to a Day 2 pick.

Wise teams do not make trades like this. If scouted properly, a 1st Round Pick should have an extremely high success rate. A good GM should be able to get a good starter in the 1st Round most of the time, and should get a good starter in the 2nd Round at least half of the time. No WR is worth 3-4 good starters. Believe me. I really like CeeDee Lamb, and I think he's the best WR in this draft. But there are probably 20 WRs (maybe more) in this class who could also become very good receivers in the NFL. It's ridiculously deep. If the Bills do their homework, I have no doubts they can get what they need at #22 or even in the 2nd-3rd Round.

If you looked at Joe Burrow after the 2018 season, you would have seen a Quarterback who was maybe a late-round pick (if he was on anyone's radar at all). Through 4 years of college up until that point (at two great programs in Ohio State and LSU), he would have accomplished NOTHING that would lead ANYONE to believe he could be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Then something amazing happened. Everything clicked and he suddenly had one of the best seasons in NCAA history. In the span of 4-5 months time, Burrow went from a total nobody to the hands-down #1 pick in the NFL draft. Burrow went to a large high school in the Ohio, allowing him to be recruited by Ohio State. Which is obviously one of the top programs in the country. Between his time there and with LSU, he's been surrounded by some of the top young players and coaches in the NCAA. In contrast, Allen went to a tiny high school, and then played for Wyoming, surrounded by nobody who had a prayer of being an NFL starter. His first REAL coaching came as a rookie on the Bills, playing alongside some of the worst offensive talent in the NFL. Imagine if Brian Daboll/Jordan Palmer had gotten the chance to work with Allen in college, and the passing skills he displayed during 2019 were evident at Wyoming. He would have been the #1 pick over Baker Mayfield. Absolutely no doubt. So why does it really matter if Allen is showing progression NOW, versus him showing progression while still playing in college? It really doesn't. And consider that Allen and Burrow are both 23 years old. This is a drastic example. But my point is... every football player has a point when they are NOT good, and then a point when they get better. For some this happens when they are very young. Others (like Burrow) don't blossom until they hit their senior year of college. And while they are certainly a rarity, some players don't truly hit their stride until the pros. Continuing to look back where Allen started is totally pointless. The only thing that matters is where he finishes, and we shouldn't start worrying until he STOPS getting better.

There is a large middle-ground between Cam Newton/Lamar Jackson running between the tackles like a halfback -- and a high-efficiency, pure pocket-passer like Tom Brady or Drew Brees. I agree that Josh Allen probably won't succeed if he goes completely immobile, and counts on doing everything standing stationary between the tackles. That would be playing against his strengths and wasting his physical talent. Allen will need to find the proper balance, where he's not always counting on his legs to do the most damage... but also has that skill ready if the defense slips up and leaves a lane open to scramble. There are lots of guys in this boat, most notably Russell Wilson. Guys like Aaron Rodgers and Big Ben don't scramble a lot, but effectively use their mobility to extend plays. These are the players Allen needs to model his game after.

I don't believe the Bills want Josh Allen to become Cam Newton, because that playing style has literally destroyed his body. While other QBs are still going strong after 15 years in the NFL, Newton looks done after about 7-8. That's the longevity of a running back. I believe their ultimate vision is to mirror players like Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger. Guys who can use their mobility to extend plays, but not as a primary weapon. Consider how the Bills coaches have approached Allen's development... compared to how the Ravens have worked with Lamar Jackson. As a rookie, Allen relied mostly on his athletic ability and running ability to make plays. But in Year 2, the coaches pulled back on the scrambling. They surrounded Allen with more receivers and pushed for him to stay in the pocket more. Meanwhile, Baltimore structured their entire offense around Jackson's running skills. In my opinion, Baltimore's approach is yielding more immediate success. But long-term, Buffalo's plan will result in Allen being a better QB and for a much longer time.

This is how I feel. At this point, the coaches have had an entire year to work with Cody Ford, every practice, in person. It's one thing to be going mostly off college film and the Combine, and being a little unsure when picking a guy in the draft. But at this point, the Bills SHOULD have a good feeling whether he can truly develop into a solid tackle, or if he would be better kicking inside. Now don't mistake me. I have no problem giving him more time to develop, if the coaches truly think he belongs at RT. But going into Year 2, I hope we've moved past the "experimental phase" and have settled into just helping him become better at his ultimate position.

Define "quality" receivers. I don't think the Bills will get Amari Cooper in free agency. They might be interested in AJ Green, who hasn't played in forever. Outside of those guys, you have mostly fringe starters who would be competing for snaps. Not looking at the #1 starting spot. They also may use their #1 pick on a WR. But I could just as easily see them waiting until the 2nd-3rd, considering how deep this draft is at the position. Bottom line. I think they add 3 WRs at some point during the offseason, but not all of them are going to be competing for immediate snaps or considered significant upgrades.

I would be curious where you are seeing this. I'm not seeing him listed anywhere as a 2nd Round Prospect. When I do draft evaluations, I generally start by looking at the "Top 100 Big Boards" on the major sites. That includes ESPN, NFL.Com, CBS Sports, PFF, Draft Network and Draftek. Out of those sites, Kyle Dugger was only listed on the Top 100 on two of those sites. In both cases, he's considered a 3rd Round Prospect. He was #69 on Draftek and #86 on the Draft Network. The rest had him completely outside the Top 100, which is 4th Round or later. So if the Bills really like him, they better do some maneuvering around the board, and try to get him in the late 2nd (at the absolute earliest). Using our 1st on a mid-round prospect from a small school, at a non-need position with limited impact, would be a disaster.

Can't really blame the current front office. Getting compensatory picks requires two things: 1. Having your own free agents sign high dollar contracts with other teams 2. Not really being active in free agency Last year, our crop of free agents were mostly from the Doug Whaley era. So you can't blame Brandon Beane if none of them were good enough to sign big contracts. Even if we weren't active in free agency, it's unlikely we would have gotten comp picks back anyway. It will probably take a few years to completely turn this train around. But I believe we will eventually get to a place where comp picks are common.

I just don't see it. Outside of special situational packages, Sean McDermott's defense generally utilizes a 1-Tech and 3-Tech at DT. Chris Jones is a 3-Tech. The same as Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips. Our 1-Tech DTs would be Star Lotulelei and Harrison Phillips. In other words... If the Bills let Jordan Phillips walk, they will be looking for a replacement to rotate at the 3-Tech DT position with Oliver. Not to play alongside him. Jones will likely command $15-20 million per year. I just can't see the Bills spending that kind of money to split reps with the guy they picked Top 10 last year. Way too much investment at a single position. I think the Bills will offer Jordan Phillips a fair contract ($5-7 million per year) to return and split reps with Oliver. If he balks, they will find another starting-caliber guy on the market to take his place. Going forward, they likely envision Oliver being the main guy at the 3-Tech anyway. If Brandon Beane decides to shell-out a big contract on the Defensive Line, I believe it will be for an edge rusher. Shaq Lawson is a free agent. Jerry Hughes is possibly in the last year of his deal. Trent Murphy has been a disappointment and could easily be cut.

My definition of "Franchise QB" is a guy who can put lesser talent on his back, and pretty much carry the team by himself. The nightmare situation for every GM is having a guy who wants a long-term/$30-35 million per year contract, but isn't clearly at the "Franchise" level. Cousins is the very definition of borderline. Prescott is just a notch below him, but may still have room for improvement. I also wouldn't want to be making the call on Ryan Tannehill (fluke season?) or Jameis Winston (can be elite if he cuts down turnovers).

It's all about the market. Supply and demand. Your value isn't related solely to how you rank against your peers, but what teams are willing to pay you. Everyone knows you can't win without a QB. And think about how many teams are unsettled at the QB position going into the offseason. By my count, about 13 teams (just over 40 percent of the teams in the league) can't be 100% sure who will be under center next season. If Dallas is unwilling to pay Prescott, I could definitely see Miami, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Los Angeles (Chargers), Chicago, Carolina or Tampa Bay being willing to do it. Depending on how negotiations work out with their free agents, New England and Tennessee could jump into that market. New Orleans could be in the market if Drew Brees retires. Pittsburgh must be contemplating life without Big Ben. Jacksonville would probably be interested if they didn't already have that terrible Nick Foles contract on the books. And it's not totally unfathomable that Cincinnati could throw money at Prescott, and then mortgage the #1 Pick (especially if Joe Burrow is balking at playing for them).

When it comes to Josh Allen, it seems very hard for people to be objective. He was a very polarizing prospect, that caused many fans and media heads to stubbornly dig their feet into the ground. And two years into his career, he's shown just enough promise for his supporters to proudly thump their chest. But he's also struggled enough for his doubters to remain skeptical. Truthfully, the jury is still out. There is no doubt he took some strides forward in 2019. But he needs to keep it going. Like I've said in the past... I don't think fans should put a time-limit on Allen's development. People keep asking whether QB development should take 2, 3, 4 seasons. Or if Allen isn't a Pro-Bowler by next year, would that classify him as a bust? In my opinion, development varies from player to player. Allen started "behind" most of the other prospects in his class, including a few that were drafted afterwards. He wasn't picked Top 10 because of his college production. His value was always related to long-term potential. The moment that Bills fans should start worrying is when Allen stops getting better. Period.

I just can't see the Bills using the franchise tag on Jordan Phillips. Although I would love to bring him back, I believe his market value is in the $6-7 million per year range. Free Agency is crazy, and it's possible that a team throws out $8-9 million. But I would be very surprised to see him getting a double-digit offer. With that in consideration, it makes zero sense for Brandon Beane to give him $15-16 to lock him up for just one year.