mjt328

One advantage we have over the Spanish Flu, is that younger/healthy people do have an extremely high recovery rate with this virus. This thing is almost exclusively going after the elderly, and those over 60-65 with pre-existing conditions. The 1918 epidemic killed people of all ages, including children and young adults (as you pointed out). This should make it easier/quicker for humans to develop herd immunity. We can feel safer about sending younger/healthy people out into the world, without being afraid they will get it and start dropping dead everywhere.

Not completely subjective. You can use stats to show the following: - Allen improved in completion percentage and short-game accuracy from 2018 to 2019 - Allen ran less and stayed in the pocket more from 2018 to 2019 - Allen had less turnovers over the last 11 games than during his first 5 - Allen hit on a higher percentage of deep throws in his last 4 games, than during the first 12 games It's subjective to say this guarantees improvement next year, but it should give us some optimism.

I've been reading/listening to dozens of doctors and health experts. Nobody knows for sure how long this will last, because they are going by only 2-3 months worth of data on a virus that is totally new to the world. And unfortunately, the country that has been going through this the longest (China) was very secretive at first - so it's unclear whether the data they are putting out is reliable. The next few weeks will hopefully tell us a lot. - If they can be believed, China has supposedly hit the downside of this, and the country is gradually returning to work. The world will be watching to see if they get a second-wave once their citizens leave quarantine and start getting around each other again. - How well will the U.S. efforts to slow down infections work? And how much progress can we make in improving the country's medical capacity in that amount of time? The unique thing about this virus, is that it doesn't actually have an extremely high death rate... IF the sick can get proper hospital care. The problem (as can be seen in Italy) is that it's extremely contagious, and if thousands get sick at the same time, the hospitals simply can't handle everyone. - Is this strand of the virus seasonal? If it is, the spring and summer months should give us additional time to prepare for another outbreak next year. - At best, a vaccine is several months away. But there other drugs already being tested which hopefully can treat the symptoms and decrease the number of serious cases requiring hospitalization. Like with other viruses, there is also an expectation that humans will gradually develop a level of herd immunity. The recovery rate of young/healthy people who get this is very high. The key is all about NOT overloading the current medical system. Hospitals, beds, doctors, ventilators, etc. Even if society doesn't get back 100% to normal immediately in the next few weeks, it's very possible that we can get there gradually. For instance, let the recovered/young/healthy get back to work, while continuing to have strict quarantine rules and social distancing for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Yes, there are lots of doomsday predictions out there. But there are also glimpses of hope. I find it easier to take this day-by-day, and hope that everything turns out for the best, rather than fearing the worst.

Here is the way I see it... Following Josh Allen's rookie season, the biggest gripe among every critic was that: a) He missed too many SHORT throws b) He was mostly a scrambler, and didn't do enough with his arm So in the offseason, Allen worked diligently on fixing the weakest parts of his game. Immediately (even during Preseason and Week 1), you could already see the vast improvement in Allen's accuracy and short passing game. You could also see the focus Allen made to become a pocket passer, and to not take off running at every sign of pressure. But over the course of the first 4-5 games, a new problem emerged: a) He was turning the ball over too much So the coaches clamped down, and Allen started being more careful with the ball. Over the final 9-10 games, Allen had less turnovers than almost every other QB in the NFL. So the narrative once again switched, and suddenly Bills fans became extremely concerned with: a) Inaccuracy on his DEEP ball Just for arguments sake, I'll ignore the fact that Allen started hitting some nice deep passes during the final quarter of the season (which he did). The two against the Patriots were among his best throws all year. My confidence in Allen comes from the inescapable FACT that every time he has started getting a reputation for a bad habit/trait, he has gotten a laser focus on getting better in that area. And each time, it has worked. I fully expect Allen to put an emphasis on his deep ball this offseason, along with his penchant for fumbles while scrambling.

Don't forget the Bills don't have a 1st Round Pick anymore, so they don't need $8-10 million for rookies. Also, if they see a player they really want, they could make a cut somewhere (Trent Murphy is a popular cut choice). I agree that we need to be smart and careful, because there are players with expiring contracts coming up in future years. But we don't HAVE TO sign these guys to extensions right now. Tre White will have his 5th Year Option activated, putting him under contract for 2021 as well. Nothing stopping us from letting Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano play out their rookie contracts, and then extending them in the offseason. It may cost more in the long-run, but it may be a strategy to help add other players this season.

The O-Line overall was average last year (which was a huge step-up from 2018). I don't think we should be concerned about this unit. We haven't had any major upgrades. But if they perform exactly the same as last season, we will be OK. They won't be dominating anyone because of blocking. But blocking also won't be the primary cause for us losing games. Our biggest weak spot in 2019 was Right Tackle. Some of this was because of Cody Ford struggling as a rookie. Part of it was because of Ty Nsekhe getting hurt. The rest of the guys (Dion Dawkins, Quinton Spain, Mitch Morse and Jon Feliciano) are solid. Not All-Pros. But solid NFL starters. They have moments where they get beat, but for the most part are a reliable unit. We also have very good depth. Nsekhe, Spencer Long and Ryan Bates are each capable of stepping into a starting position without much drop-off. If Ford takes a step up in his sophomore season (which is the case for lots of players), then I think we can jump to an above-average O-Line.

Very true on both fronts. Old runners fall of a cliff quickly. In my opinion, the best way to build a backfield is to draft someone in Rounds 2-3 (this is the sweet spot for getting solid value) at least every 2-4 years. You always want to have two young guys splitting time, rather than count on a single workhorse. And when Free Agency eventually comes up, don't get emotionally attached to the fan favorites. Realize they can be replaced. The Bills should be seeking an RB in the draft this year to pair with Devin Singletary. Rookies at the position can often come in Year 1 and be very effective, especially in a timeshare. Jonathan Taylor and JK Dobbins are some options usually mocked in the 2nd Round this year. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Zack Moss, Cam Akers, Eno Benjamin and AJ Dillon are some guys who would likely be available in the 3rd.

I've been mostly against the idea of adding Gordon. But if we can get him on a 1-year $5 million deal, then I would be OK with it.

If it was just spending Terry & Kim Pegula's money, nobody would worry about it. Go ahead and throw $10 million per year at Melvin Gordon. But because of the salary cap, overspending will eventually catch up to you. Maybe not this year. Maybe not even next year. But somewhere down the line. The dumb money you threw at one player who failed to contribute, will ultimately result in you being forced to cut/let go a player that does contribute. In today's NFL, avoiding big money to Running Backs should be "Cap Rule 101." No position breaks down faster after the age of 25 than RB (Gordon is 26). And rookie RBs taken in Rounds 2-3 frequently outperform the high-paid vets. Instead of wasting big bucks on free agents, RB is a position that you should just plan on drafting a new guy on Day 2 every couple years. Rinse and repeat. I also think the gap between Gordon and Carlos Hyde is much smaller than you think. Hyde is older (which should factor in), but in many ways he actually played better than Gordon last year.

Jared Goff is certainly part of the problem. But the team would still be in deep cap trouble, even if Goff was playing really well. And if it wasn't for that terrible no-call against the Saints, the Rams wouldn't have even gotten to the NFC Championship game. I always hated the Rams approach. Thanks to their cap situation and lack of draft capitol, it may be 2-3 more seasons before they are even back into playoff contention. Personally, I prefer the New England approach. It's not about amassing a group of superstars, and making one desperate shot at the trophy. It's about building a cohesive and consistent team that can compete every single year, regardless of injuries, free agency, etc. If you can constantly field a team that wins 70-75% of your games for 10-15 years straight, odds are that you will eventually get a real shot at the trophy.

On a side/related note with the Todd Gurley news... The Rams should be a cautionary tale for anyone promoting the "ALL-IN" approach to roster building. They were legit contenders for roughly two seasons, and are now watching everything fall apart. Salary cap hell and players getting cut. No draft selections to rebuild the roster. Brandon Beane has stated he wants this team built for the long-haul. They are not going to mortgage everything for a small window at the Super Bowl. They believe the best road to a Super Bowl is consistently fielding a contender year-after-year.

Rough average between the two guys. People have been estimating $15-16 per year for Dion Dawkins, and $12-13 for Matt Milano. Now contract average doesn't always equate to cap hit, and contracts can be structured in a million different ways. But the general idea is that we will absolutely need some extra space next year.

The discussion always starts with the QB. Tom Brady is gone. Andrew Luck isn't coming back. Big Ben and Phillip Rivers have clearly regressed, and now have retirement staring them in the face. As of today, the premier/young QBs in the AFC appear to be Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson (sorry but Lamar Jackson needs another year of elite play to prove his game will work for the long-haul). There are several young QBs vying to join that conversation (Jackson as mentioned, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and soon to be Joe Burrow). Even if Allen never reaches the heights of Mahomes or Watson, I think he can at least be in discussion for the #3-4 guy in the AFC very soon. He's definitely got some work to get there, but being in the Top 5 in your conference would be absolutely HUGE for this franchise. Don't forget, Watson is being pulled down by a ridiculously bad front office. The Bills do seem to have a better/smarter organization than AT LEAST New York, Cleveland and Cincinnati. So if Allen can make that huge step forward, and the Bills should be a major contender for years to come.

Melvin Gordon would need to come VERY cheap to make sense for the Bills. Otherwise, we should just focus on grabbing a guy on Day 2 of the draft. It's very likely that we can get someone that would be equally as productive. The Bills have enough cap space to play around with, but they still need to be careful. Thanks to the 5th Year Option, we do have some time before Tre White (likely) becomes the highest paid CB in the NFL. But both Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano are free agents next season, and I would have to imagine both are in our long-term plans. Rough estimates have each guy making $14-15 million per year.

I'm curious what everyone around here thinks about possibly taking a shot at Xavier Rhodes or Trumaine Johnson? Like Josh Norman, both guys have struggled mightily over the past few years. But maybe our defensive coaches/system could rejuvenate their careers, especially if we could do a one-year prove-it deal. I think we already have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. But I went into the offseason thinking we need 4 guys capable of playing the outside (we only had 3 last year). I would prefer that at least one of those CBs also be able to slide into the slot in case of another Taron Johnson injury.

Melvin Gordon is extremely overrated, and would likely cost over $10 million per year. Just like Jadeveon Clowney, he is one that I would definitely pass on, unless we can somehow get him to take half of what he's looking for. This is the point of free agency where smart GMs can often get players (who were disappointed in their markets) to take team-friendly/one-year prove-it deals. I'm not sure Gordon or Clowney will ever get down to a worthwhile price range, but there may be some other guys on the market who can contribute. Personally, I would really like another versatile CB who can compete with Levi Wallace and Josh Norman on the outside, but also help in the slot with Taron Johnson's injury history.

Well, let's take a look at the teams who will (possibly) be needing a QB next year. It's actually a pretty lengthy list. I'm assuming right off the bat that Cincinnati drafts Joe Burrow, and that most of the teams with young (2nd/3rd Year) prospects don't give up their guys prematurely. Detroit takes a big dead-cap hit if they move on from Matthew Stafford in 2021. I think he will be with them a few more seasons. New Orleans new contract with Drew Brees is for two seasons, with a big dead-cap next year. I think he goes two more and then retires. Chicago: It's possible that the Bears have already given up on Mitch Trubisky, but I think next year will be the time they officially move on. Denver: The Broncos appear to be rolling with Drew Lock this year. But with him being a 2nd Round selection, he might get a short leash. Indianapolis and Tampa Bay: They signed Phillip Rivers/Tom Brady, but only on a one-year deals. Both could be QB shopping again next year. Jacksonville: The Jags already appear to regret the Nick Foles signing, and I don't expect Gardner Minshew to be a long-term solution. Los Angeles, Miami and New England: The Chargers, Dolphins and Patriots all need QBs right now. Will they get one this year, or wait until 2021? Las Vegas: The Raiders could move-on from Derek Carr at pretty much anytime, and have already been hinting at it. Pittsburgh: I'm honestly surprised Big Ben isn't calling it quits already. Could he retire next year if the comeback doesn't go well? Washington: With the regime change, Dwayne Haskins might be the only 1st Rounder in danger of getting less than 3-4 seasons. Out of this group, I think Indianapolis, Chicago, Denver, Tampa Bay, New England, Las Vegas and Pittsburgh will be in playoff talks - or at least good enough to be outside discussion for the #1 Overall Pick. By process of elimination, that leaves Jacksonville, the LA Chargers, Miami and Washington as the most likely teams to finish with a bad enough record to get the top pick. But all of these teams have Top 10 picks in April, so it's very likely that Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert take this list down to two.

This is why it's ridiculous when people claim the "salary cap doesn't matter" and you only need to be creative with structuring contracts. Once everyone is seeking a huge contract, you can't keep them all. The Titans made the decision to pay Ryan Tannehill and franchise Derrick Henry, and just didn't have the money to keep Casey on the books. In my opinion, they made the wrong decision. They should have franchised Tannehill to see if he could replicate last season, let Henry walk and kept Casey. But what do I know?

I hear you. It is definitely a risk going into the season with Cody Ford at Right Tackle. But at some point, you need to let your high draft picks play, work out the kinks and hopefully step forward. Going into last season, there were lots of Bills fans concerned about Middle Linebacker. But Tremaine Edmunds took a significant step in his development, and the position is now considered one of our strengths. It's one thing to have a fallback option (which I believe Ty Nsekhe and possibly another veteran free agent will end up being). But once we re-signed Quinton Spain, it was highly unlikely we were going to throw big bucks at one of the RTs on the market.

Waddle hasn't re-signed yet, but I could definitely see them bringing him back. Should come pretty cheap. They still have Nsekhe as depth, and he can play both sides. So they could wait until the draft to bring in another guy. Extending Poyer is great, and means they just need depth at the safety position. Siran Neal is pretty much set as the "big nickel" spot. They really like Jaquan Johnson. Marlowe and Coleman are free agents, and I'm not sure either guy comes back, so these are the guys we are seeking to replace. Knowing the way this team operates, they definitely want a veteran voice in each unit. I fully expect them to add another RB in the next couple days, but it may not be someone who gets a ton of carries. I think they prioritize this position in the draft, between the 2nd-4th Rounds. I really don't see them adding another veteran WR, unless it's someone deep on the back-end at the league minimum. Odds are very high that a really nice WR prospect will fall into their laps on draft day, and they simply don't have the room on the roster to keep everyone. It couldn't hurt to add another guy. But like safety, I don't see them adding anyone much higher than league minimum. The primary spots (Milano, Edmunds) are set in stone. AJ Klein has plenty of starting experience, and they really like Vosean Joseph (who was on IR all of last season). Tyler Matakevich fills the special teams aspect they like out of backup linebackers.

I would still expect the Bills to add the following positions via free agency: - Veteran RB to replace Frank Gore - Swing Tackle to provide insurance behind Cody Ford - Cornerback with both outside and inside versatility - Safety depth And Bills fans, that pretty much encompasses the remaining needs we have across the roster. Take care of those spots, and the Bills are free to go BPA at pretty much every slot in the draft. It's a beautiful thing.

All of what you said is certainly true. I believe Bill Belichick's "Patriot Way" mentality, which he installed across every aspect of the franchise, was THE main reason for New England's unparalleled success over the past 20 years. Even more than Tom Brady. But I also believe that Belichick and Kraft's power struggle following Super Bowl LI was the end of the "Patriot Way" - and the ultimately the beginning of the end for New England's run. Yes, the Patriots still went to two more Super Bowls after that and even won another ring. But the battle over Jimmy Garoppolo was the moment that Belichick lost full control over the team's personnel decisions. It started the team down a path that finally reached a dead-end yesterday. If you believe all the reports out of Boston, you know that Garoppolo was Belichick's plan for succeeding Brady. Regardless of how indestructible Brady seemed, Belichick knew the day was coming that age would finally catch up to his Hall of Fame QB. While other franchises with veteran QBs usually sit on their hands until it's too late, Belichick has always been very forward-thinking and aggressive in drafting QBs. After-all, the only mark against Belichick's legacy is the fact that he only did it with Brady under center. If he could transition and then win a Super Bowl without Brady, his status as the greatest ever would be unquestioned. Reports say that Belichick wanted to trade Brady after the 2017 Super Bowl win against the Falcons. At that time, the Patriots still could have gotten a massive draft-haul for Brady and then handed the reigns of a championship roster over to Garoppolo. But Robert Kraft pulled rank, and refused to part with his boy. With Garoppolo set to hit free agency, this destroyed Belichick's transition plan that had been 3-4 years in the making. You will notice that in March 2017, the Patriots became uncharacteristically aggressive in both Free Agency (Stephon GIlmore) and trading draft picks for players (Brandin Cooks). This team had operated under the same mentality for almost two decades, and been massively successful. But suddenly, they were mortgaging their future for one-last chance at championship glory. This is because of everything listed above. The plan Belichick had been setting in motion was toast. The "Patriot Way" was dead. Until it happens on the football field, many will refuse to believe it. They will cling to the idea that Belichick has some magic trick up his sleeve. He doesn't. His magic trick was traded three years ago to the San Francisco 49ers. The Patriots have very few options left at QB for the 2020 season. They have an offense with very few weapons, and virtually no cap space/draft capital to improve it. They do have a strong defense, but I would anticipate a very ugly season.

As always, much of this will come down to the QB. The Dolphins very possibly amassed all these picks, but then played themselves out of the top two prospects in the draft. Sounds exactly like our approach for much of the last 15-20 years, which led to the longest playoff stretch in the NFL. My hope is that Washington takes Tua, just so the Dolphins get stuck with the leftovers. The Patriots are pretty much screwed for 2020. I don't care who the coach is. The best QBs left on the market include Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton. The top QB prospects will be long-gone by pick #23. Combine this with among the worst RB/WR combinations in the league. They will likely still have a strong defense, but the fall from grace isn't going to pretty for the people of Boston.

We probably keep 6 guys. Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley are all locks. With the ridiculous depth in this draft, I fully expect the Bills to draft another WR in the first 4 rounds (and I expect them to make the active roster). The skill-set of that receiver will likely determine which of the other guys is expendable. - Duke Williams is still our only bid-bodied WR. If we draft a big guy, he's in trouble. - Andre Roberts is still our only returning. If we draft a guy capable of handling KR/PR duties, he could be in trouble. - Robert Foster is likely our default gadget-guy to replace Isaiah McKenzie. But I wouldn't be surprised if McKenzie is brought back on a lower salary.

Agree that New England will still be a decent team and play hard. But what "good QBs" are still on the market? The best options for New England look like Jameis Winston and Teddy Bridgewater.