mjt328

Right now, the Bills are the hottest team in the NFL. By a pretty good margin. Early in the season, they were scraping out wins. Now they are destroying and embarrassing every opponent they face. Over the last month, they have been the #1 offense in the NFL, combined with a Top 10 defense and great special teams. So the question is, how long can they realistically keep that up? Because if they can roll like this for another 4 games, they will likely be hosting the Lombardi trophy.

Were our players "rusty" after the bye week? Nope. In fact, I would argue the offense has been rolling since Week 9 (after Josh Allen removed the shoulder harness) and the defense has gotten back on track since taking that week off. The players will be practicing together all week, and we are really only talking about 6-7 extra days of rest time. I can't see them suddenly losing their edge in that small amount of time. Historically, I think the teams who occasionally fall in that trap are those who take Week 17 off AND have the extra bye for the playoffs. It may be something to watch with Kansas City, who hasn't been playing it's best to start with. My guess is that Sean McDermott is going to play his starters, hope to get an early lead, and then possibly start removing key guys as the game moves along. Much of that may depend on how we are playing, and what the score looks like with Pittsburgh/Cleveland.

Success can happen many different ways in the NFL. There are currently three teams averaging over 30 points per game. Green Bay, Kansas City and Tennessee. One is well-balanced. One is pass-heavy. One is run-heavy. All are very tough to stop. Yes, the rules certainly now favor the passing game. But everyone is playing the same rules, and it evens out on both sides. Historically speaking, the playoffs also tend to have some bad weather games. Wind. Rain. Snow. The AFC could easily see bad weather in any of their matchups, outside of Miami or Indianapolis.

Not excited to hear this. Kenny Stills is a good player. But he's been sitting on the open market for over a month now. With COVID precautions, I'm not sure he could even be available to play for us in Week 17. The timing tells me they are at least worried about Cole Beasley being available for the playoffs.

Oh yes. There were definitely other potential reasons, all of which were discussed thoroughly Weeks 5-8. John Brown being hobbled and then out. The lack of running game. Defenses playing deeper coverage and forcing the passing game to be more patient. Some were even saying Josh Allen's early success was just a mirage. But Brown hasn't played since Week 10, and the offense is still putting up huge numbers. The running game has still been spotty, and seems more complimentary than something opponents really need to worry about. Defenses are now getting picked apart, regardless of how they play us. All of this tells me that something else was behind the offensive drop in play. It can't be a coincidence that Allen's worst 4 games all happened with the shoulder brace. The moment he took it off, we dropped 44 on the Seahawks.

Brian Flores has referred to Ryan Fitzpatrick as his "relief pitcher." He's not playing by the normal coaching rules, and is not concerned with hurting his starter's confidence by benching him. If Tua is playing poorly with the playoffs on the line, there is absolutely no doubt that Fitz will be replacing him. The Dolphins are a good team, and they will be desperate. This is also a division matchup. I could see this being a close game with our starters playing the entire way. If we play Matt Barkley and our backups the majority of the game, points are going to be tough to come by. I really don't think the Bills will emerge with a victory in that scenario. Sean McDermott and the coaching staff simply need to decide what is more important: - Going into the playoffs with an extra bye week, and removing the risk of losing a key player to injury. - Going into the playoffs with continued momentum and a 6 game winning streak. - Homefield advantage in the event we play the Steelers again. - The chance someone else knocks off the Chiefs and we avoid playing them altogether. Personally, I would lean towards playing the backups and going into the postseason as healthy as possible. I don't think we lose any momentum by sitting our top guys for a single game. That seems to happen when teams rest starters in Week 17 AND get a first round bye. Not to mention, coming out flat against the Dolphins would pose a bigger risk of losing our edge going into the playoffs. Considering that Cleveland is in the same position as Miami, I also find it unlikely that Pittsburgh wins with Mason Rudolph under center. So we could end up with the #2 seed regardless of what happens. Finally, I don't think anyone is anyone knocking off the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. Anything else is probably wishful thinking. The road to the Super Bowl goes through Arrowhead.

What competent QB do you believe they can get? They will likely be picking too late to get a top QB prospect. And even if they get one, rookies don't generally win many games. The only starters set to be free agents are Dak Prescott (Cowboys are not letting him go), Philip Rivers (may retire, may stay on the Colts), and Mitchell Trubisky (still not buying a turnaround). Maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick? Trade options are not going to be cheap. They could maybe go for someone like Carson Wentz, but then they have no cap space to surround him with anything resembling offensive weapons.

The egos in that building are going to make rebuilding very difficult. This whole season, they have made excuses about how the opt-outs were the primary cause of them falling apart. Surprisingly little about them losing a Hall of Fame quarterback, or how poorly Cam Newton has played. And almost nothing about how little talent they have on the offensive side of the ball. The best thing for New England would be a complete tear-down, and a few years drafting in the Top 5. But a highly doubt Bill Belichick would be willing to put himself through a couple seasons of winning 2-3 games.

In the 11 games that Josh Allen was not wearing the shoulder harness, the Bills: - Have scored 33.6 points per game - Have a 10-1 record, with their only loss coming on the Hail Murray During that same stretch, Allen also has: - 7 games over 300 yards, 2 over 400 - 10 games with multiple touchdown passes, and 4 games with 4 touchdown passes - 8 games with a QB rating over 100

At this point, I think it's become 100% clear that our mid-season slump on offense was due to Josh Allen's shoulder injury. Usually when a Quarterback is nursing an injury, it's one of the biggest news stories surrounding the team. But the Bills coaching staff played this one very smart, and didn't talk about it at all. They didn't want the opponent to get a competitive advantage. Very smart. In fact, I think most of us were unaware he was wearing some kind of brace/harness until a few games after him getting hurt in Las Vegas. In the games prior to the injury (Jets, Dolphins, Rams, Raiders), the Bills put up 27, 31, 35 and 30 points. During the weeks Allen was wearing the brace (Titans, Chiefs, Jets, Patriots), the Bills offense scored 16, 17, 18 and 24. Since losing the harness (starting against the Seahawks), the offense has been unstoppable, putting up 44, 30, 27, 34, 26, 48 and 38. Simply put... the team the Titans and Chiefs beat earlier in the season is NOT the same one they would be facing today. Not to mention, the Defense hasn't allowed 25 points since the Bye.

I don't really care what the primary reason is for their demise. I'm just thrilled it's finally happened. And truthfully, this media narrative is probably the best thing for us. The longer that New England's front office believes their downfall is only due to opt-outs, the less priority they will put on drafting a new franchise QB. And that will ultimately mean them getting stuck in endless 6-10, 7-9, 8-8 win cycles. Nobody should understand QB purgatory more than Bills fans.

I wouldn't advocate for us to lose on purpose. But being in this type of scenario could actually work out very well for the Bills. There is a decent chance we have the #2 seed locked up this week, and there is literally nothing for us to gain by winning in Week 17. All it would take is us beating the Patriots and the Steelers losing to the Colts. We win the tiebreaker, regardless of what happens the final week. If the above happens (and Miami beats Las Vegas), then it becomes almost certain that our Wild Card opponent will be the Dolphins or Ravens. In other words, the Bills could ultimately have a say in which opponent they face. And I think most people would prefer to play Miami. In this scenario, the Bills can then rest their starters (extra bye week to get healthy) and use Week 17 to scout the Dolphins tendencies. At the same time, we can hide what kind of gameplan we are coming with in the Wild Card - similar to a preseason game.

It all depends on how much value the Bills coaching staff places on: a) Being healthy and rested for the playoffs b) Having the chance at an extra home game in the divisional round c) Which opponent they are going to play in the wild card round What happens if the Bills go into Week 17, knowing that a win earns them a matchup against the Titans? And by playing their backups (and ultimately losing), they will get a rematch against the Dolphins in the wild card round. If I'm Sean McDermott in this situation, I'm going to start Matt Barkley and use Week 17 as scouting film for the next week.

I can totally understand fans being nervous about the Wild Card opponent. The things the Bills are accomplishing this year, are achievements they haven't reached in 25 years. No matter how good they are playing, it's hard to have confidence in them winning a playoff game until they actually do it. So many are hoping for the easiest opponent possible. In my opinion, Cleveland is the weakest team on the list (no way the Raiders make the playoffs). The Browns defense is average/below average, and the strongest part of their offense is Nick Chubb. I don't see any chance they can contain our passing offense. This is the type of team where we could get an early lead and take Chubb out of the game. Not to mention, the Browns haven't been to the playoffs in years, and there is usually an element of jitters and lack of experience in these situations. The Dolphins would also be a good matchup. Even though they have a pretty good defense, Josh Allen has a history of absolutely torching them. And their offense has really been struggling since switching over to Tua. For the same reasons as the Browns, I like the idea of playing a rookie QB in his first playoff game. The only hesitancy I have, is playing a divisional opponent two weeks in a row. Weird things often happen in these situations. My next preference would be the Colts. Phillip Rivers has a long history of falling apart in the playoffs, and he's not the QB he was 10-15 years ago. Their pass defense is also pretty vulnerable, and I think we could score quite a few points on them. Overall, Indianapolis is a well-coached team with solid talent across the board. But there is nothing on the roster that really scares me. Baltimore is a team that I really don't want to play. Everything with them comes down to having the right defensive gameplan, and players executing it flawlessly. If you can keep Lamar Jackson inside the pocket and throwing outside, the Ravens are going to struggle badly to score points. But it only takes a couple slip-ups, and they will hang 35-40 on your defense easily. This is also one defense that I think could keep us limited. And after two straight playoff failures, they will be just as hungry as us. Maybe it stems from memories of earlier this season, but Tennessee is the team I want to play the least. Our run defense has improved greatly as the season has gone along. But our D-Line is still very undersized, and I'm not sure I want to see them taking on Derrick Henry. This is a big/physical team, which is patient enough to stick with the run game and check-downs regardless of the score. They also have a solid defense.

It's a fair argument. Patrick Mahomes is the defending Super Bowl champion. Josh Allen hasn't won a playoff game yet. Based on longevity alone, I would have a hard time ranking Allen ahead of Mahomes myself. These kinds of debates have been happening the entire history of football. When Jim Kelly was our quarterback, there were plenty of debates over who the best QB of the 1984 class was. Most fans I knew felt Kelly was #2 behind Dan Marino, until years later when John Elway won a couple Super Bowls and leapfrogged him. At the end of the day, Kelly was still a first-ballot Hall of Famer and considered among the best to ever play. The fact that people are even arguing on TV about Mahomes vs. Allen, or Chiefs vs. Bills in the power rankings... that is enough to tell us how far we've come. The way we become #1 on most lists is by winning the Super Bowl.

With all these potential stud QBs in the AFC, it's going to be important to have more than JUST the franchise quarterback. Teams will need to have strong coaching and a solid/good roster around their QB, or they are going to drift behind the other teams. A great example is Houston. Deshaun Watson is absolutely a Top 5 quarterback in the NFL. But the roster he's surrounded by is pretty awful, and they have now been passed-up in the division by Indianapolis and Tennessee. Watson is significantly better than Rivers/Tannehill, but he's not good enough to make-up for the lack of talent around him. Even though Josh Allen's development is key to the Bills success moving forward, we still need to pay attention to how Brandon Beane does with his other draft picks and how he manipulates the salary cap. Three years in, it does seem like Beane/Sean McDermott had a great plan to not only turn around the talent on the roster, but change the culture around this organization as a whole. That is going to be vitally important moving forward, because if Tua happens to work out (certainly not a given at this point), it does appear that Miami is also moving in the right direction. Jets fans are justified in their excitement about Trevor Lawrence. But if they can't fix the rest of the organization, I'm skeptical that he alone will be enough for them to bypass us or Miami at the top of the division.

Seems like it switches back and forth. Just a few years back, the AFC side was still being dominated by old guys like Brady, Big Ben and Rivers, while the top young QBs were Jarod Goff and Carson Wentz. I imagine within the next couple seasons, some of these NFC teams are going to bottom-out and rise up the draft board. Teams like the Redskins, Giants and Bears recently drafted QBs that don't really seem to be working out. There are rumblings that Detroit is looking to move-on from Matthew Stafford. The Panthers are currently stuck in purgatory. Brady and Brees could be retiring pretty much anytime. Etc.

Names like Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski were HUGE just 2-3 years ago. But much has changed, and both of those guys are totally washed up. It's not just Tom Brady's inability to push the ball downfield with consistency. Gronk looks like an old man. Brown has made zero impact since joining the Bucs. In my opinion: Stephon Diggs > Mike Evans as the #1 receiver Cole Beasley > Chris Godwin as the slot receiver John Brown > 2020 Antonio Brown as the #2 outside receiver Gabe Davis > Anyone else on their roster as a #4 That's without even getting into Andre Roberts (possibly the league's best returner) or Isaiah McKenzie (who is a fantastic gadget player). The Bills have the best, deepest and most versatile WR group in the NFL.

Any person who plays sports will tell you that focus is an important part of how well you play. There are times you are dialed in. There are times when it's just not there. And even for professionals, it's extremely hard to stay where you need to be mentally for 4 full quarters every week, 16 games per year. NFL players are also very aware which teams are easier than others. A player on Seattle was quoted prior to the Jets game, saying they "needed an easy game" after suffering a tough loss. The Bills had a lot of pressure against the 49ers and Steelers in primetime. They are heavy favorites against the Broncos, and everyone is now talking about how great they are. The idea of a trap game is these two concepts coming together. Teams becoming overconfident against an inferior opponent, and losing focus just long enough to either keep the game close or lose the game outright. I absolutely do believe this can happen, although it's hard to successfully predict. People predicting this as a trap game for the Bills are pointing out: a) The team just came off two huge primetime wins, and may be due for a mental letdown. b) They have a 99% chance of making the playoffs regardless of whether they win or lose. They also only need to win one more game (or have Miami lose one more game) the rest of the season to win the AFC East. With no fans, there may be less value in seeding. All of this may decrease their urgency.

Thinking the same. The Ravens winning last night was absolutely huge for their playoff chances. Their last three games (Jacksonville, New York Giants and Cincinnati) are pushovers. It's very likely they now finish 11-5. Looking at the Titans, Colts and Browns, it's also hard to picture any of them going worse than 2-1 down the stretch. That would put all of them at 11-5 as well. At this point, 10-6 very likely won't be enough to squeeze into the AFC playoffs. The Raiders will need to hope for a total collapse from one of the above teams, or even a 3-0 finish simply won't be enough to get them in. That also means that Miami will need a 3-0 finish to get in. That could be very tough with games against New England, Las Vegas and Buffalo. On a side note, I'm curious how much value the Bills coaching staff puts on seeding this year (with no fans in the stands). They can clinch the AFC East with a victory on Saturday against the Broncos. And if Kansas City beats the Taysom Hill-led Saints, we cannot realistically get to the #1 seed. Which means the Pats/Dolphins games only have value if they want higher seeding in the playoffs. I've played around with the ESPN Playoff Machine, and came up with the Bills getting the #2 seed and playing the Browns.

See the other thread, which goes over our Free Agents in 2021. I would much rather keep those guys on the roster (Milano, Williams, Feliciano) than add yet another running back. And that isn't even getting into his legal past.

1. Matt Milano - I know people think he's injury-prone, but this defense is so much better when he's in the lineup. 2. Daryl Williams - It was hard to choose between the two O-Line starters, but it seems tougher to find tackles than guards. 3. Jon Feliciano - See above, although I would really hate to see him go. 4. Andre Roberts - He has shown his value as a returner this year. 5. Isaiah McKenzie - Fun gadget guy that I would like to keep around. Draft Priorities (assuming we can sign the guys above): 1. CB2 2. Edge Rusher 3. Tight End 4. Linebacker Depth 5. Running Back (speed guy)

Honestly, none of the AFC teams are going to be pushovers this year. Best case scenario would probably be the Raiders, but they are clearly on the outside looking in now. Next best case would probably be the Dolphins. And they gave the Chiefs all they could handle on Sunday. Very likely the Bills will be playing the Browns, Colts/Titans or Ravens on Wild Card weekend. All of those matchups could be brutal.

We spent the first half of the season very one-dimensional, which is always bad news for the postseason. The Defense finally coming around is going to be key, if we do end up going on a playoff run. I think it comes down to a few things: - Sean McDermott's scheme is heavily dependent on the linebackers playing well. Over the last month, our LBs have either gotten healthier (Edmunds, Milano) or simply upped their game (Klein). This has made a huge difference. - The secondary seems to be playing more aggressive. They aren't leaving the huge cushions we saw early in the season, and they are getting turnovers. I don't see Taron Johnson jumping that route back in September or October. - We seem to be getting better play from the interior line. I'm noticing Ed Oliver getting some penetration, along with some very good play from Vernon Butler.

Saw this on Colin Cowherd this morning. He truly believes Bill Belichick hates the Jets enough to do something like this. It's also not a bad long-term strategy, so that he doesn't need to play Trevor Lawrence twice per year going forward.