mjt328

Yep. Total revisionist history. It's not about "liking/loving" a player. It's about properly valuing that player, and then actually utilizing your resources to draft them. If Buddy Nix truly thought Russell Wilson was going to be a franchise QB, he wouldn't have given him a 4th Round grade. Reminds me of Bill Polian now claiming he had a 1st Round grade on Tom Brady. Now I love Polian and what he did for the Bills. But that is total B.S. He may have seen potential in Brady. But he clearly saw more potential in all the other guys he drafted first.

Talk. Talk. Talk. Three years ago, the critics were saying that Josh Allen would be a total bust in the NFL. The Bills should have drafted Josh Rosen instead. While inconsistent, Allen showed lots of promise as a rookie. At times, he totally took over games with his legs (Minnesota, Miami), while showing incredible leadership and a knack for making big plays late in games. Rosen was the one who was a complete disaster. So last offseason, the experts did everything to downplay what Allen was doing well. Who cares about his athletic ability, his arm or his leadership? The focus quickly shifted to what he was doing poorly, specifically his struggles with pocket presence and mid/short-range accuracy. They said he would always be a gunslinger, who would struggle with these kinds of throws. Allen responded by putting in work, and vastly improving in both of these areas. So now the goalpost has moved again. Now Allen will NEVER SUCCEED unless he improves his deep ball. I guess we'll see... But I seem to recall that Allen began hitting more and more of these passes in the final quarter of the season. Specifically in the New England game.

There are many who made up their mind about Josh Allen when he was a draft prospect, and were very vocal that he would be a bust. They will cherry pick stats, and nitpick every mistake just to defend their position from 3 years ago. Just look around. The same people who praise Lamar Jackson's game, are the same people who knock Allen for his supposed inaccuracy and his below average completion percentage. They are the same ones who say QBs should only be judged on throwing from the pocket, without considering what his athleticism and running ability bring to the table. I'm convinced that if Allen turns into an MVP candidate this season, these critics will still find ways to say he's a one-year wonder.

I keep hearing the schedule is going to be an issue. But I'm not sure I really buy that narrative. First of all... If our first goal is to win the AFC East, then all of the teams in our division will be playing roughly the same opponents. Everyone gets the NFC and AFC West. Everyone has to play the Chiefs, 49ers and Seahawks. Not just the Bills. Second... Our first path to playoffs goes through the Patriots, Dolphins and Jets. Up until this season, we were pretty much counting on a Wild Card, because the Pats were a beast too big to overcome. Well this year, they are likely going into the season with Jarrett Stidham (0 NFL starts to his name). The Dolphins are in a rebuilding year. The Jets do have some talent, but we have better coaching and a better roster. The only reason the Bills still have doubters, is because they can't get past the last 15-20 years. Or because they have serious doubts about Josh Allen.

I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking at with your graphs. If you wanted to measure data, this is what I would suggest: - Create three graphs for the most important receiver stats (catches, yards, touchdowns) - Measure how these stats change each game/season, based on the rating of the QB throwing to him This would at least show how a WR is impacted by the performance of his QB. To do the reverse, you would probably need to find a way to score/rate WRs.

Regardless of how talented a WR is... he is ALWAYS going to under-perform without a good QB throwing him the ball. Marcus Mariota looks like an NFL backup. And for all the hype Ryan Tannehill got last year, his play was definitely more on the game-manager end of the spectrum. The Titans did not have an explosive passing offense, and was clearly a Derrick Henry run-first strategy. As the year progressed, AJ Brown also became the #1 target in the limited attack they did have.

There have been multiple studies done on the draft, and what rounds Hall of Fame legends, All-Pros/Pro-Bowlers, Starters and just guys who make the roster are picked. In every single study, the highest percentage begins in the 1st Round and gradually decreases each round after that point. Data shows a direct correlation between how early a player is selected and how successful their career will be. GMs and Scouts absolutely know what they are doing (admittedly some better than others). There are two reasons that fans BELIEVE the draft is just a random crap shoot: #1 - First Round prospects are WAY over-hyped. From the moment the Super Bowl finishes, the top guys in each draft class are pumped up to the point that everyone thinks they are getting a Pro-Bowler. Which just isn't realistic. The Pro-Bowl doesn't have enough spots to add 32 new guys every year. For example, look at the "Bills Worst Draft Pick" thread from a few months ago. The only reason players like Marcel Dareus, Donte Whitner or Shaq Lawson could possibly be on that list, is because expectations are way too high. Bottom line... most 1st Round guys (outside of maybe Quarterbacks) at least turn into NFL starters. And most 7th Round guys don't make the active roster. #2 - Late round success stories are talked about ENDLESSLY. Every single year, we are reminded at the beginning of the 6th Round that Tom Brady was picked there 20 years ago. The problem is, he's pretty much the only 6th Round QB in NFL history who has ever done jack squat. Brady isn't an example of scouts "missing" on a player. He's an example of a below-average college talent somehow improving every aspect of his game by 500% after hitting the pros - which just simply doesn't happen.

Instead of "crap shoot" phrase, I prefer to look at the draft as an educated guess. At the very top of the draft, you usually have very productive players from big universities. Physical freaks. Huge stats. Guys who have been incredible football players since they were in high school. Even guys like Chase Young (who went #1 this year) aren't 100% guarantees. They could always get lazy or get injured. But there are less things that could POTENTIALLY go wrong. But as those Young-like prospects are snatched up, the remaining players get riskier and riskier. You start looking at smaller schools with lower levels of competition. You have guys who may lack athleticism in some way. You have guys who were not very productive in college. Guys with injury concerns and off-field red flags. If the 1st Round has a 75% chance of success (just throwing numbers out here)... the 2nd Round is probably 40-50%...and it continues to drop as the draft goes on. Certain positions also carry a greater risk that others, due to a greater jump to the pro-level. No GM is going to hit 100% on picks. But the good ones have a knack for almost always hitting on their Day 1 picks (at least), while also getting some nice players later in the draft.

Agree with this. Also, there are a handful of teams around the NFL who are employing a similar strategy: Step 1: Draft young QB in the 1st Round Step 2: Aggressively surround QB with veteran talent through trades/free agency, before that player hits Year 5-6 and require a contract extension. This is what the Rams and Eagles did starting in 2016. This is what the Bears and Chiefs have done starting in 2017. This appears to be the strategy for the Browns, Jets and Bills after the 2018 draft. But having that kind of strategy is only part of the equation. - The Rams are experiencing a very short window, because they were probably too aggressive in the trade market. - The Bears were largely unsuccessful, mostly because the QB they drafted never developed into a franchise guy. - The Eagles and Chiefs both won the Super Bowl, because they picked good QBs, didn't go overboard with trades/free agency, but did a good job of using resources to tackle their weakest roster spots. In my opinion, the Bills seem to have a good balance... more in tune with the Chiefs/Eagles than with the Rams. The big key will be whether Josh Allen can be like Mahomes/Wentz or like Trubisky.

The most important piece for the Chiefs is Patrick Mahomes, who was obviously a draft pick. When your QB is on a rookie contract, there is a little bit more flexibility in adding veteran players. Once Mahomes gets $30-40 million per year, the salary cap will no longer allow those kinds of moves. The key is balance. Rookies are cheap, but they also take time to develop. It would be foolish to have a team full of nothing but young/inexperienced players, while stockpiling $100 million in unused cap. But you can go too far the other way (see the Rams), where you totally mortgage the future for the sake of 2-3 seasons. To judge the Stefon Diggs trade, you also have to look at the Bills salary cap position, the youth on the team, and the brief window they have before Josh Allen (potentially) requires a massive contract extension. It's not something you can just make a hard and fast rule about.

If the draft is a total crap shoot, then scouting doesn't matter and teams should be able to just pick a random person off the street to be the GM. Also, the best strategy would be to continually trade down until you have stockpiled dozens of selections in the 6th-7th Round.

Pretty much spot on here. Brandon Beane spoke last week about continuity on the O-Line, and how it was great they had the same starting five returning in 2020. I also believe Beane drafted Cody Ford to play Right Tackle, and they aren't going to give-up immediately just because he struggled as a rookie. At the same time, this team is past the growth stage and ready to compete for a championship. Coaches will not have the patience to deal with a "weak spot" on the roster this year. Ford certainly gets first crack. But if he continues to struggle into the regular season, it won't be long before Daryl Williams steps into the lineup.

Agree with all this. Devon Singletary will definitely be the starter. Although I do think Zack Moss will be counted on very heavily for short-yardage carries and red zone work, even at the beginning of the season. They really don't have anyone else to fill that role with Frank Gore gone. Mario Addison will start opposite Jerry Hughes. I am skeptical that Trent Murphy makes the team. AJ Epenesa will be brought along very slowly, and will need to earn increased playing time. It may take a year before he breaks the starting lineup. To me, the biggest question mark in the starting lineup is at Cornerback. I think both Josh Norman and Levi Wallace have a very good chance to win this job. And it's hard to know whether the coaching staff would default to the veteran newcomer, or the younger guy who has been on the team for 2 seasons already.

It shouldn't be a tough conversation. We should be teaching our children to judge everyone based on the content of their character. Not based on the color of their skin. Period. I fully understand that as a society (meaning the U.S.), we have a terrible history regarding race. And we still aren't where we need to be. But many of the solutions being proposed (Rooney Rule, Affirmative Action, Diversity Initiatives), are NOT working and are actually doing more to divide us. Instead of encouraging an employer to NOT see skin color, and instead see character when making a hire... these ideas encourage ONLY seeing skin color, or at least making it one of the primary factors. If I was of a minority race, I wouldn't want an employer to just hire me because they needed to hit a quota. I would want to live in a society where my skills and qualifications were the driving force behind me getting the job.

The NFL had an article about 5-6 years ago, stating that LESS THAN 20 percent of head coaches were former players. It's two completely different professions, and the racial makeup is completely irrelevant. African Americans aren't being turned down for head coaching jobs. It's just a small percentage that are actually interested in pursuing that avenue. And if the NFL is 70 percent black, why shouldn't the white population be kicking and screaming? Why don't we offer incentives for teams to draft/roster white players? The answer is because it's racist. And it's just as racist to do it in reverse. Sorry if I sound upset (I do usually like to have rational conversations), but I'm not having a great day and this kind of nonsense is really ticking me off at the moment.

How so? Football is not a very popular sport outside of the U.S./North America. It's not something played in Asia. It's not something played in Middle Eastern countries. It's not played in Africa or even in Mexico or South America. Which means the "diversity" angle is going to be pretty much limited to white and black. And as I mentioned already - the percentage breakdown of the NFL vs. the United States population is actually very close. 12-14 percent of the U.S. population. Currently 12.5 percent of the NFL head coaches. If minority candidates are being passed over BECAUSE of their race/skin color, then that's a problem. But there is absolutely NO EVIDENCE or suggestion that is happening. And I personally resent installing blatantly racist rules into the sport, just so the NFL can hit their little diversity check marks. It's total B.S.

What a blatantly racist idea. If you believe the United States has a problem with RACISM, then you don't FIX IT by giving bonuses/perks to organizations for HIRING BASED ON RACE. It's completely ass-backwards. Honestly, I don't know how people come up with this ridiculous garbage. Maybe instead of testing the players for CTE, they need to check the folks in the NFL offices for brain damage. By the way, African Americans make up 12-14 percent of the U.S. population, according to the latest census figures. If you took that percent and multiplied it by 32 teams, that comes to exactly 4.48. Which means you would expect to see 4-5 African American head coaches in the NFL at any given time. There are currently FOUR in the league. This is a completely made-up and manufactured "problem."

Watkins is a very small puzzle piece on the Chiefs team. He just took a massive pay-cut this offseason to return. For them, he's not a huge distraction. Because they aren't counting on him to be more than the 3rd-4th option in the passing game. The Bills made a HUGE investment to obtain Watkins - not only in using a Top 5 pick on him, but actually trading up to do it. They were counting on him to be a leader, and a key piece that would vault our offense and team into the playoffs. Every organization will take a chance on problem players. It's the dysfunctional ones that use high draft picks and big free agent contracts on risky characters.

Yet another example of why this Bills organization struggled for almost two decades, before finally breaking through. You constantly hear about NFL scouts doing crazy amounts of due-diligence on prospects (especially those slated to go 1st Round). Their work habits. Their personal lives. Their medical history. Yet somehow Doug Whaley and his guys happened to miss - or simply didn't care - that Sammy Watkins was completely loony toons and had serious substance abuse issues. It should also comfort fans that Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott walked in the door at One Bills Drive, and pretty much instantly realized he needed to go. They immediately declined his 5th Year Option, and then showcased Watkins in exactly one preseason game before trading him off to the Rams. I always figured the decision was about injuries and securing extra draft capital for a Quarterback. The idea that Watkins didn't "fit" the culture seemed weird to me, because his off-field troubles weren't very public. This certainly clears things up.

No NFL games are easy. But a difficult win counts just as much as a blowout. The Cardinals, Broncos, Raiders and Jets should have improved teams in 2020. No doubt about it. But I still look at the Bills, and believe they are significantly better than any of these teams. They should beat them. In fact, the only teams on the schedule I would argue have a better roster are the Chiefs and 49ers.

I always figure that we will win a couple we aren't expected to, and then lose a couple we probably shouldn't. It pretty-much evens out at the end. For example in 2019, I was pretty much spot-on predicting the Bills to go 10-6 before the season. But I definitely expected them to lose to the Cowboys, and did not expect them to lose to the Jets in Week 17. I figured the Titans, Browns, Steelers and Ravens to be toss-ups, and the Bills sure enough went 2-2 in those games. This year, we should absolutely be heavily favored against the Dolphins x 2, Patriots x 2, Raiders and Chargers. That is 6 games nobody should be picking us to lose, unless they consider last year's success a total fluke, or they think Jarrett Stidham will be a stud. The Chiefs and 49ers are currently the class of the league, and should still be favored over the Bills at this point. So these are 2 games we likely lose. At this point, the big toss-ups would be the Rams, Titans, Seahawks and Steelers. The teams with the biggest chance to improve are the Jets x 2, Broncos and Cardinals. If the Bills can at least split these games, they repeat at 10-6 and still easily win the AFC East. Personally, I think they have a good chance to do better than split - putting my expectation clearly in the 11-12 win camp (can't quite decide yet).

Before the season, I usually try to tackle the schedule from a couple different angles. Based purely on last year's (2019 season) results, the Bills had a better record than 11 of their upcoming opponents (Jets and Dolphins 2x, Rams, Raiders, Titans, Cardinals, Chargers, Steelers and Broncos). They also had a better point differential than 11 of their upcoming opponents (Jets and Dolphins 2x, Rams, Raiders, Seahawks, Cardinals, Chargers, Steelers and Broncos). Of course, teams won't be exactly the same as last year. And my "objective" non-scientific opinion is that the: - Jets, Dolphins, Raiders, Cardinals, Steelers and Broncos have improved their rosters since the 2019 season - Rams, Patriots and Chargers have gotten worse since the 2019 season - Titans, Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers are roughly the same as the 2019 season What makes this schedule so tricky to predict, is the poor/below average franchises in 2019 were usually the ones who apparently made the biggest strides in the offseason. Fortunately, I also believe the Bills have improved from last year's squad. Since Josh Allen is generally considered our weakest link, I also wanted to do a comparison of Quarterback opponents. - In my opinion, we only play two elite guys this year (Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson), who are significantly better than Allen. Due to unknowns about his injury/age, I would consider Ben Roethlisberger an iffy addition to this category. - We also play a handful of mid-level/veteran QBs who are inconsistent in performance (Jared Goff, Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Jimmy Garoppolo, probably one game against Ryan Fitzpatrick) and could easily be surpassed by Allen this year. - The rest of the games are against Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Jarrett Stidham and Drew Lock. I suspect Tua takes over by Week 17 and it's likely that Justin Herbert will replace Tyrod Taylor before Week 12. If we lose to the elite guys, split against the vets and beat everyone else, that comes out to 11 wins. Those factors considered, here are my predictions on : 1 - Jets (Home) - Win, 1-0 2 - Dolphins (Road) - Win, 2-0 3 - Rams (Home) - Win, 3-0 4 - Raiders (Road) - Win, 4-0 5 - Titans (Road) - Loss, 4-1 6 - Chiefs (Home) - Loss, 4-2 7 - Jets (Road) - Win, 5-2 8 - Patriots (Home) - Win, 6-2 9 - Seahawks (Home) - Loss, 6-3 10 - Cardinals (Road) - Win, 7-3 11 - Bye 12 - Chargers (Home) - Win, 8-3 13 - 49ers (Road) - Loss, 8-4 14 - Steelers - (Home) - Win, 9-4 15 - Broncos (Road) - Win, 10-4 16 - Patriots (Road) - Win, 11-4 17 - Dolphins (Home) - Win, 12-4

I honestly don't think Lorenzo Alexander will be missed a lot. His base position of SLB (Strongside Linbebacker) will be manned by A.J. Klein, who was brought in during free agency. Klein isn't a spectacular player, but he's a pretty solid veteran and has started the last 3 seasons for the Saints. In my opinion, the loss here will be marginal. Most of the time, the Bills defense will actually be in nickel. This means two linebackers (Milano, Edmunds) and either Taron Johnson or Siran Neal covering the slot receiver. Over the last few years, Alexander has often slid onto the defensive line when the Bills go into Nickel. With the additions of Quinton Jefferson and A.J. Epenesa, I don't believe Alexander will be missed much in the pass rushing rotation either.

I would suggest watching the Cover 1 film session on him. Pass rushing isn't just about speed. Edge rushers can also win with leverage, great hand usage, and recognition. And while AJ Epenesa isn't the fastest athlete, he is absolutely exceptional with everything else. Based on tape alone, most had Epenesa slated as a Top 15 draft pick. If he had killed the Combine drills, he would have almost certainly jumped into the Top 10. Despite him not posting great numbers, most still saw him as a 1st Round prospect. We got a steal and he should still outperform most of the other guys picked last weekend.

People that don't like Josh Allen usually like to knock his accuracy (citing completion percentage), and his supposed "reckless" play (citing turnovers). At the same time, Dalton is usually considered a super-accurate passer and game-manager who avoids mistakes. Allen's completion percentage in 2019 was 58.8%. Dalton's last three seasons were 59.5%, 61.9% and 59.9%. His career average is only 62%. Allen threw 9 interceptions last season, and 12 interceptions as a rookie. Dalton threw 14 interceptions in less games last year, preceded by 11 and 12 the years before. His career average is 13 picks per season. So all homerism aside, let's be real here... Dalton has been around a full decade in the NFL, and clearly peaked about 5 seasons ago. Allen was a super-raw project, who is only entering his third season in the league and still has tons of potential to improve. Yet their numbers over the last 2-3 seasons have been remarkably comparable. That's without starting to consider Allen's running ability (especially in the Red Zone).