mjt328

Not true. It does catch up eventually. Even without the cap decrease, the Saints would have been in deep trouble this offseason. Just like how the Rams keep trading away future draft picks, so they can take advantage of today's Super Bowl window. Right now the team looks stacked. But as the years go along, they will basically be depending on late rounders and UDFAs to restock the aging talent.

The vast majority of NFL contracts are backloaded with non-guaranteed money. That way players can boast about landing a 5 year $50 million contract... when in reality they have signed a 3 year $22 million contract, with a team option to cut them before Year 4 without much penalty. Most restructures are basically pushing guaranteed dollars to the back-end of the contract (which was originally setup as bloated fluff). In other words, the team reduces its ability to cut the player. The player gets more guaranteed money. The cap hit for the present year is decreased. As time goes along, the ability to push money down the road becomes more and more difficult. The most obvious example right now is the Saints. They have used these techniques for years. They have also remained competitive for a long-time, mostly because of excellent drafting. But now they are being forced to cut virtually the entire team. The Eagle and Rams are also very guilty of this. Brandon Beane is exceptional at getting free agents with basically 1-2 year contracts (see John Brown, Quinton Jefferson, Mario Addison, etc.), allowing him a ton of flexibility to play around with the cap without these major restructures. Maybe he will change that strategy as our Super Bowl window begins to close, but right now it's a great plan for remaining competitive for many years down the road.

With the salary cap drop (and mass of veterans getting cut around the league), I wonder if the upcoming market for Free Agents is going to be WAY LESS than anybody expected. Legal tampering or not, you have to believe agents are already sending out feelers and getting an idea of what GMs are thinking. We keep hearing that Matt Milano and now Darryl Williams took heavy discounts to stay in Buffalo. We also heard Mitch Morse did the team a huge favor by taking a paycut. But maybe these guys weren't going to get much more on the open market anyway.

Many of their contracts were heavily backloaded. The idea was to keep "kicking the can down the road" and take advantage of their rapidly closing Super Bowl window with Drew Brees. Eventually, that bill was always going to come due. What nobody expected was a $15 million salary cap DROP in 2021. In previous years, the cap has usually risen around $10 million per year. Most NFL general managers figured the 2021 cap would be about $208 million, instead of the $183 they ended up getting. That's a whopping difference of $25 million less. Lots of teams are in deep cap trouble this year, and being forced to cut veteran talent. The Saints basically got hit from both ends in the same offseason. The reduced cap AND the backloaded contracts finally catching up. Considering the regression and possible retirement of Brees, it probably worked out just as well.

There isn't going to be anyone left on the Saints roster by next Wednesday.

This is exactly the situation New England finds itself in right now. There are a few ways to attract free agents: - One is to overpay and be the top-bidder, which the Patriots pretty much refuse to do. - Another is to be a serious Super Bowl contender, which the Patriots no longer are. - Still another is to have a coach that guys enjoy playing for, which Belichick clearly is not. No doubt that Belichick is a great coach. But he's also an @$$, who pushes his players very hard and treats them like expendable chess pieces. The organization itself has a reputation for not paying to keep talent, and instead building up compensatory picks and using the draft to restock the pieces around Tom Brady. That system was great at keeping the winning ball rolling, and helping them constantly get salary cap bargains on veterans desperate for a ring. Now that Brady is gone, it's going to be very hard to get that ball rolling again.

I love John Brown, and I absolutely hate seeing him go. But the more you think about it, this was really a no-brainer decision for the Bills... 1. Prior to Wednesday's moves, the Bills had something around $2-3 million available in salary cap space. Even after restructuring Jerry Hughes and Mitch Morse. That's not even room for one decent starter. 2. Our upcoming free agents include starters Matt Milano, Jon Feliciano, Darryl Williams and Levi Wallace, along with key contributors like Matt Barkley, Andre Roberts, Isaiah McKenzie, Ike Boettger, Ty Nsehke and Josh Norman. 3. Without making some restructures/cuts, this means the Bills had absolutely no cap room to re-sign OR replace ANY of these guys. We fell just short of making the Super Bowl last year. We need to get better, not worse. 4. Wide receiver is easily our deepest position. Gabe Davis was our #4 last year, and appears ready to step into the starting lineup. This made Brown one of the most expendable starters on the roster. Also - looking at our current cap situation - I see no way that Mario Addison makes it past the next couple weeks without either taking a pay cut or getting released. The Bills would save around $8 million by letting him go right now. Obviously Edge Rusher is not our best position. My guess is that Brandon Beane wants to see how Free Agency shakes out before making a move with Addison. But I can't see anyway it doesn't happen, unless we totally strike out on every pass rushing target in F/A.

The Bills have reached the place where they MUST start getting strong returns on their draft picks. Otherwise, we aren't going to be a true contender in this league for long. Jerry Hughes is getting older, and could see a drop-off at any time. Mario Addison is already there, and is highly overpaid. We probably don't have the cap space to make a huge splash in free agency for a pass rusher. We absolutely NEED to get something from AJ Epenesa on the D-Line. Next to him in the middle, this is the time for Ed Oliver to start playing like an impact Top 10 pick at defensive tackle. On the other side of the ball, it's highly unlikely that we can keep both Jon Feliciano and Daryl Williams. Which means it's time for Cody Ford to step up and become a valuable part of the starting unit. One of the marks of truly great teams... is the ability to let starters walk in free agency, and then replace them with a younger option... with little to no drop-off in play.

The problem with Tremaine Edmunds is that Buffalo may never get the full return on his development. By the time he finally blossoms into a true Pro-Bowl player and difference maker, he may be playing for a different team. You ideally need your draft picks to start making an impact by late in Year 2 or early Year 3. Especially those guys drafted in the 1st Round. The front office has until May 3 to make the decision on picking up Edmunds 5th Year Option. Which is a financial commitment they may not want to make, considering all of his ups and downs. If the team decides to decline the options on Edmunds (very possible), then he's a free agent in 2022.

When you make it to the AFC Championship game, it's probably smart to keep as much continuity as possible. Figure out why you fell short against the Chiefs... make some tweaks... and go for it all in 2021.

If the rumblings around the league are true, this was a smart move by Mitch Morse. Reports are saying that a lot of veterans are in danger of being cut this offseason. And there probably won't be much cap space for them to get big bucks by re-signing with someone else. In other words, many of these guys are going to be forced into pay cuts... whether they like it or not.

Don't forget the Bills also had Marshawn Lynch, who some consider a future Hall of Famer.

Sounds like the smart play this offseason will be to sit-back... wait until the bottom-feeders blow their cap space on second-contract guys hoping for a big payday... then swoop in and get bargain discounts on the vets who became cap casualties.

It's ridiculous to me how people refuse to be thankful for their own blessings. Instead, they look with envy and hatred at anyone with more. Low income Americans with cellphones, high speed Internet, two vehicles and a nice house consider themselves poor, despite having more than 75% of the world. The Middle Class with everything they could ever need, complain that athletes are making millions for playing a game. Pro athletes who are making millions of dollars per year, think the owners are selfish for not wanting to cough up more of their profits. The NFL Players Association signed a very generous contract, making the salary cap dependent on revenue around the league. If the owners are taking a hit from the lack of attendance, then the players take a hit too. End of story. The vets who get cut can always sign for less.

Despite what people think, the Bills front office is not trying to make a carbon-copy of the Carolina Panthers. With our GM and HC both from that organization, there are obviously going to be similarities. But over the years they have learned what works and what doesn't. They are clearly trying to do their own thing here. Josh Allen became a Top 5 quarterback in 2020. That was the main reason for our success on offense. If you don't believe he can replicate that going forward, then yeah.. maybe we were playing over our heads. But personally, I don't see any reason to believe he's going to step back as his career progresses. I've heard many state that Allen is possibly the most physically gifted QB to ever enter the NFL. The question was if he could develop that talent, and he's clearly doing that. On defense, we lack a big-name All-Pro talent on the Front 7. No disagreements there. But I would also say that Buffalo's secondary (Tre White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde) has more talent than anything Sean McDermott had on his defense in Carolina. Very few teams can boast more than 3-4 elite guys on their roster. The Chiefs are considered the absolute class of the league, and they basically have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and maybe Chris Jones that you can put in that elite category. The Bucs won the Super Bowl. Their elite guys are basically Tom Brady, and maybe Mike Evans and Shaq Barrett. The Bills have Allen, Stephon Diggs and Tre White as elite players. Like Kansas City and Tampa, we have very few holes, solid/good starters at most positions and strong depth on the sideline. Bottom line, we really aren't far behind anyone in the NFL in talent.

No way to tell until the draft is happening, and we get a better idea of where prospects are going. Good GMs utilize all of the tools in their belt, and don't push themselves into a corner with a "single philosophy" on roster construction. Sometimes trading up is the best move. Sometimes trading down is better. Sometimes you stay put. I recall when Marv Levy was hired as GM, and he spoke about good teams only building through the draft. He was very reluctant to participate in Free Agency or retain guys with expiring contracts (but ironically still managed to overpay tremendously for average players). Buddy Nix pretty much refused to consider a trade up in the draft, and we always seemed to be 1-2 picks away from getting that true difference maker.

After this offseason, the Bills will probably have Top 5 paid (at their position) players in Josh Allen, Tre White and Mitch Morse. It's possible they can restructure Morse, but then I imagine Stephon Diggs will start pushing for a new contract. Dion Dawkins sits just outside the Top 10 on offensive tackles. Jordan Poyer is just outside the Top 10 on safeties. My point is that our roster, in terms of salary cap, is starting to get a little bit top-heavy. Every team can have a handful of big contracts. But after your QB and maybe 2-3 other positions, those big contracts are eventually going to start costing talent everywhere else. Would you rather have a roster with several big name Pro-Bowlers, hoping they can make up for big weaknesses at a couple other spots? Or would you rather have a couple Pro-Bowlers, and strong depth across the board? 1 good player + 2 below average players? Or 3 good players. In my opinion, the latter is a better recipe for consistent/long-term success. The Bills were close this year. Their offseason plan should be improving a few places, without upsetting what worked in 2020. If JJ Watt costs them a combination of Matt Milano, Darryl Williams, Jon Feliciano, or forces them to cut guys who have contributed... he's not worth it.

I'm basing it on him being 32 at the start of next season, along with him missing 13 games in 2016, 11 games in 2017 and 8 games in 2019. In the 4 seasons prior to when the injuries starting hitting, Watt had 69 total sacks. In the last 5 seasons since the injuries started, he's got 26.5 total sacks. I realize that pass rushing is about total pressure, and not just about sacks. But the ELITE guys usually get to the QB and finish the job. We already have a pretty good DE (Jerry Hughes) who causes lots of pressure, but isn't great at actually sacking the quarterback. Watt would certainly be an upgrade over Mario Addison. But I don't believe he's among the elite guys anymore, and isn't worth getting into a bidding war over... especially considering the cap issues we have at other places on the team.

I'm not sure JJ Watt is playing at that elite level now. He was great as a younger player, but injuries have really taken their toll.

Ken Dorsey is not stupid. He understands that Brian Daboll will likely be with the Bills one more season, and then he will be promoted to the Offensive Coordinator in Buffalo. So his decision is to pick up his family, move to Seattle and run a team with inferior offensive weapons 😁, just so he can get the promotion 12 months early? Or stick around with a Super Bowl contender for another season, and then take over in 2022?

This offseason has the potential to have LOTS of quarterback moves. So it's really hard to answer that question until Free Agency has finished. First you have the aging vets finishing up their careers: - Phillip Rivers has officially retired - Drew Brees hasn't announced, but all the rumors say he's done - Ben Roethlisberger hasn't given an indication either, but he definitely needs to Then you have the vets nearing the ends of their current contracts: - Dak Prescott, Mitch Trubisky and Cam Newton are all free agents in 2021 - Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater could be easily cut in the offseason with very little dead-cap Then you have the guys forcing the way out with their current teams: - The Texans are a mess and Deshaun Watson is likely to formally request a trade - It's hard to imagine Carson Wentz coming back to Philly, regardless of his contract That's not even getting into the trade rumors surrounding Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan. Or the fact that Tom Brady and Alex Smith are still old, and their teams could be looking for a QB of the future. Or the bizarre situation involving Tua Tagovailoa, and whether the Dolphins actually want him to be their guy. My count is that New England, New York, Indianapolis and Jacksonville will absolutely be in the market for a new QB this offseason. Pittsburgh, Houston, Washington, Chicago and New Orleans are almost certain to join that list. Depending on how things shake out, it's possible that Miami, Las Vegas, Dallas, Detroit, Atlanta and San Francisco could be as well. That comes to 15 teams (almost half of the league!!!!) with questionable situations at the most important position.

I was very interested in seeing how Kansas City came out Sunday against the Browns. Despite their 14-2 record, the Chiefs have been barely squeaking by over the last 2+ months. Each week they go through long stretches where they seem out of sync, and struggle to put points on the board. For a team that has a reputation for being "totally unstoppable" on offense, they haven't managed a double-digit victory since November 1st (against the Jets). My initial thought was that maybe the Chiefs were just coasting through games, and could pretty much turn it on whenever necessary. Once they hit the postseason, they would start rolling again. But even in the Divisional Playoff round, they started very strong... then started settling for field goals, and gradually let the Browns back into the game. That was before Patrick Mahomes went out of the game, so no excuses there. No doubt the Chiefs are currently among the top 3 teams in the NFL (along with the Bills and Packers). And they have a great chance of repeating as Super Bowl Champions. But I don't agree with the idea that Kansas City is in some kind of elite tier over the rest of the NFL. Just a few weeks ago, they struggled badly to defeat the 4-12 Atlanta Falcons. I'm 100% convinced that Josh Allen's "slump" during weeks 5-8 was due to his shoulder injury (which got almost no attention from the media). The Bills have also done much better against the run since Matt Milano returned, and Tremaine Edmunds healed up. The Bills have improved drastically as a team since that game in Week 6, while the Chiefs have seemingly gone the opposite direction. Don't forget that Andy Reid also has a 2-5 record in conference championship games.

I've noticed, and figured it had something to do with Isaiah McKenzie's injury. He exploded for a career day against the Dolphins in Week 17. Then he almost completely disappeared from our offense. If it's not due to injury, then my guess is that something on film (against the Colts and Ravens) suggested to Daboll that we weren't going have much success with misdirection plays and jet sweeps.

Actually he didn't. Tom Brady agreed to a lower contract, while the Patriots were investing in his health company TB12. People think Brady was being unselfish and taking less money, so his team could afford better players under the salary cap. In reality, this was just another questionable tactic by the New England Patriots organization to get around the league rules.

Pretty much every game can be defined by a handful of plays. Even blowouts start 0-0, and a few early plays start pulling the momentum towards one team. The thing I find interesting is that Baltimore and Buffalo both missed 2 field goals. The quarterbacks also both missed wide open deep throws, which likely would have gone for touchdowns. Both defenses were tough, and yards were not easy to come by. The difference in the game was that when Buffalo got down into the Red Zone in the 3rd Quarter, they punched it into the endzone. When the Ravens did the same, they threw a pick-6.