mjt328

Very true. Expect Josh McDaniel to also be a really hot name (again), if the Patriots continue to be competitive without Tom Brady.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe an assistant coach like Daboll can get hired somewhere else in the middle of the year. The Texans will either need to roll with an in-house candidate for the rest of 2020, or get someone off the street.

Part of me wonders if the problem is something like this: 1. The Bills come out with a strong gameplan, and build a decent lead in the first half. 2. The opponent adjusts at halftime. Since the Bills are winning, they decide to keep things relatively the same. 3. Due to the adjustments, the offense suddenly looks flat and the defense lets up a score or two. 4. The Bills coaches make their own adjustments going into the 4th quarter, causing us to finish strong. The fact that we have won 14 of our last 21 games, tells me our coaching strategy/style is ultimately working out. The problem is that games which shouldn't be close, end up coming down to an onside kick. I think the best cure for this, is to build a bigger lead in the first half.

It's only a few games, but I don't think I've seen a WR play at this high of a level since Randy Moss in his prime. It's not just the ability to get open at will AND the draw-jopping catches. It's also the way he's raised the level of WR play all around him.

Don't be so sure. Unlike the Jets, I am starting to get the sense of an organization starting to move in the right direction. The 2019-2020 Dolphins very much remind me of the 2017-2018 Bills team, right after Beane/McDermott took over.

Brian Daboll is from the Belichick tree of coaching, and very much believes in switching up his attack dependent on the opponent. This is the first year he's had the talent to pretty much do whatever he wants. So far, we have only used our running backs sparingly. And we really haven't needed a strong running game yet. But I believe there will be a game soon, where the Bills go run-heavy. They are just waiting for the right matchup. Same with Josh Allen on designed runs. One an opponent starts dropping their guard, Allen will start taking advantage.

The first Titans player to test positive was on early morning Tuesday (September 29), at which point they totally closed the facility and quarantined everyone. The spread should have completely stopped at that point, assuming all protocols were done correctly. The fact that no Vikings players tested positive, suggests that all of the spreading almost certainly happened either late Sunday after the Tennessee-Minnesota game was over (September 27) or at some point on Monday at the facility (September 28). So even though positive tests were still popping up Sunday (October 4), the infections would have actually happened 6-7 days earlier. Putting this all together, the game against the Bills is October 11, which is 13-14 days after the spreading happened. The normal incubation period for Covid 19 has already bypassed. So again... as long as protocols have been followed, every player on the Titans roster who hasn't already tested positive should be in the clear. They will be down a number of players and coaches for Sunday, but they will have enough to field a full active roster and should have enough days to practice. I fully expect the game to happen.

I agree the Bills are having troubles in the 3rd Quarter. But technically, they only had the ball twice yesterday in the 3rd. And if not for the refs calling John Brown down at the 1-yard-line, we would have had a touchdown on the last play. Instead, we had a touchdown on the first play of the 4th.

Forgot about that. Better start rooting for Houston to win some games.

If the Titans are forced to forfeit a game, it affects the entire NFL and the playoff picture. I think the league is going to do everything in their power to avoid that. My question is... at what point should they be forced to play the game with practice squad players and signings off the street?

I suppose they could consider pushing the Bills-Titans to Monday or Tuesday.... but the Bills-Chiefs is scheduled to be on that upcoming Thursday. You obviously can't play with two days rest.

Absolutely. The vast majority of "draft experts" wouldn't even know which top prospects to start reviewing, if it wasn't for discussions and buzz coming from the professional scouting community. Nobody even heard of Josh Allen, until the pro guys started talking him up. The sports media also loves talking about highly-touted picks that bust (such as Jamarcus Russell), and late-round picks that surprise and do well (such as Tom Brady). This creates the false narrative that GMs/pro scouts are fools, and don't know what they are doing - or that drafting is like throwing a dart blindfolded. The truth is, the pro scouts do an excellent job. Looking at a position like QB, they usually start each year with DOZENS of eligible prospects from all over the country. By the time the draft actually rolls around, that list has been narrowed down to about 5-6 guys who have a chance at being a successful starter in the NFL. That group further breaks down into 2-3 first round guys, and 2-3 riskier guys who are considered Day 2 prospects. Looking at NFL rosters, about 70-75% of the league's starting QBs are those guys originally pegged as "first round talents" and 90-95% are guys the pro scouts picked in the first two days. That's a huge hit rate.

In my opinion, we have an infinitely better team than the Jets, Dolphins, Broncos and Chargers. We should win all 4 of these. In my opinion, we have a significantly better team than the Patriots (x2), Raiders and Cardinals. We should win at least 2-3 of these. In my opinion, it's a toss-up against the Titans, Seahawks, 49ers (especially with injuries) and Steelers. We should win at least 1-2 of these. The only team I would clearly put us as underdogs is against the Chiefs. And I think we have a decent chance of winning that one too. Put it all together, and I think 10 wins is our floor. 13 wins is our ceiling. The most likely outcome is something in-between.

Scouting is about applying the known (stats, physical traits, film) and trying to project it into the future. It's not an exact science. It's an educated guess. As I've stated before, I don't think the draft experts necessarily "missed" on Josh Allen. All of the known information they had revealed a raw prospect with elite physical skills, but who needed tons of work on refining his mechanics. Quarterbacks are always risky. But even more so with major projects like Allen. Draft history is loaded with QBs who were fantastic athletes, but couldn't fix their footwork or couldn't learn to process a defense. EJ Manuel is a great example from right here in Buffalo. I believe he also had the drive to get better, but it just didn't happen for him. One of my friends is the brother of a scout on the Indianapolis Colts. We had a conversation during the 2018 offseason, regarding Kirk Cousins as a free agent and the upcoming QB draft. He stated that Internet analytics guys tend to lean towards the safer prospects (Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen) who have shown more success at the college level. But pro scouts tend to lean more towards guys with tremendous upside. Although guys like Allen are way riskier and take more time/effort to develop, the payoff is much higher if you happen to succeed. Hit on Mayfield and you have a playoff team. Hit on Allen and you have a Super Bowl team.

The rest of the schedule is pretty tough, outside of the Jets, Dolphins, Chargers and Broncos. The Bills just need to take it one game at a time., and I think they can definitely finish with 10-12 wins by the end of the season.

Great observations. I believe that success on Defense is very much dependent on the entire unit working together, as opposed to great individual efforts. One crack in the armor causes the coaches/players to try and compensate, which has then created problems in other places. I'm definitely starting to believe our problems start with the loss of Star Lotulelei, and his ability to occupy blockers up front. Harrison Phillips is clearly not back 100% from his ACL injury, and has been disappointing in replacing Star. In turn, this is exposing the weakness of our MLB Tremaine Edmunds, who really isn't a great between-the-tackles run stopper. Our struggles against the run make it easier to find success with play action, misdirection and quick passes. This week, our coaching staff seems to be focusing on the "discipline" end and hoping things can be fixed with better gap integrity. If our defense gets bowled over again, I think we go out and sign a 1-tech DT.

If the refs made this call in the 1st Quarter, nobody would have questioned it. There was clearly contact after 5 yards that impeded the WR, with the pass in the air. And the defender wasn't playing the ball. The main reason people hate the call, is because this was a clear situation where the refs ended up deciding the game. Nobody likes that. If the official decides to hold the flag, the Bills lose. If he decides to throw it, the Bills probably have a 90% chance of winning. My opinion is that penalties should be the same regardless of situation. You call a game the same on the first play, as you do on the last. You call a game the same in the regular season as you do in the playoffs and Super Bowl. Also, the claims that Los Angeles benefited from several other bad calls is valid. There is a good chance the comeback never happens without aid from the refs. Many have elaborated on the ridiculous INT call, which flipped the game's momentum. But there is also visual evidence in another thread that Aaron Donald grabbed the QB's facemask on the 4th Quarter fumble. How does the game change if they call a facemask on the Rams, instead of a turnover (and then ensuing 15 yard penalty on Allen)?

Very pleased how the Bills have been versatile in their attack this year. Week 1 there was a heavy dose of designed QB runs, read-option and play action. In the passing game, we seemed to spread the ball around to each of the top 3 receivers. Week 2 we attacked the defense deep over and over, mostly with our outside guys. I don't think we had any designed QB runs. Week 3 we seemed to focus on mismatches against our Tight Ends, and in the slot against Beasley. Our running game also broke off some nice plays.

Seems to me Daboll is using our tight ends in a hybrid/H-Back role. We have also been going heavily on 4-WR sets during our first three games. So while I'm seeing calls for the Bills to grab one of the NFL's top pass catching TEs (like Zach Ertz), you need to consider our current scheme and the way the Bills are using that position. I'm not sure every pass catching TE is capable of filling the H-Back role. And you need to question dishing out $8-10 million per year on a position that will likely be 4th-5th in the receiving pecking order. You simply can't have Pro-Bowl talents at every position, and stay under the salary cap. The Bills now have plenty of mismatches in the passing game, and I would rather save our cap space to keep someone like Matt Milano.

EDITED FOR NON-FOOTBALL CONTENT The chances that players were going to get this was always very high. Hopefully with the daily testing, they were able to catch and quarantine them quick enough to keep it from reaching too many teammates.

This was my big concern with the NFL. Unlike baseball, you can't just push missed games into a double-header. Even a single cancelled game could have disastrous consequences on the entire season.

It's premature to count out Lamar Jackson. We are talking about ONE GAME against the defending Super Bowl champions. At the same time, I can understand the skepticism from his critics. Jackson is a very unique talent, far unlike anyone else in the NFL. To help him out, Baltimore has built a brilliant offensive scheme that perfectly matches Jackson's skills, and looks different than any other system in the league. To this point, it's been extremely successful. Most of the time it's been unstoppable. Now... 100 years of NFL history tells us that coaches will eventually adapt to what Baltimore is doing. Coordinators will study what Tennessee did in the playoffs last year, and what Kansas City did last night. Teams in the NFC North will draft defensive talents to counter the Ravens lineup. It may take another season or two, but at some point the NFL will absolutely find a solution to this attack. What happens after that will depend on Jackson's continued development. When teams figure out how to keep him inside the pocket, can he still make the necessary throws? Now I don't think he needs to become a pure "pocket passer" to be successful. There are lots of QBs who use their athleticism to extend plays outside the pocket. Josh Allen is a perfect example. But while Allen is proving he can succeed when defenses take away the run, we haven't quite seen that kind of response from Jackson yet.

Going back through the course of the game, I think our linebackers (Edmunds and Milano) were gassed by the 3rd/4th quarter. Once you start getting fatigued and tired, it becomes more difficult to maintain your lanes, get off blocks and make tackles. The Rams require the LBs to be EXTREMELY disciplined, so they are not getting caught with all the motion and misdirection. Part of me wonders if they were not in proper game condition after missing Week 2, and then going half-speed in practice all week. I'm also starting to think the Bills are missing Star Lotulelei more than anyone anticipated. The only 1-tech on our roster is Harrison Phillips, and he doesn't seem to be the same guy as before the ACL tear. Our struggles on the D-Line at the point of attack are allowing blockers to reach our second level, which allows for big runs. That in turn, opens up play action for the passing game. If the same problems persist, I wouldn't be surprised if we bring in some 1-Tech DTs off the street.

Go back and watch last season, and you will understand Sean McDermott's philosophy. It's not about getting lots of sacks. It's not about getting lots of turnovers and causing chaos. It's about avoiding big plays. Letting things happen in front of the defense. And then being disciplined enough to stop offenses before they can get first downs and move into scoring position. Lots of Bills fans seem to struggle with the concept that not every Defensive scheme in the NFL is the same. They want Tremaine Edmunds to be a between-the-tackles thumper at MLB. They want Star Lotulelei to be a penetrating DT who racks up impact plays. Apparently now we want Micah Hyde to be playing man-to-man coverage. But these are not their roles in McDermott's scheme. There is NO DOUBT that our defense is not doing it's job so far in 2020, and McDermott needs to figure out why. Maybe too many guys are playing injured. Maybe the loss of Lotulelei is way bigger than we anticipated. But I don't believe it comes down to his scheme, or players like Hyde and Edmunds playing out of position. We have seen enough over the last few seasons to know this team CAN play great defense, and do it against good QBs.

Stats are a horrible way to judge individual defensive players, regardless of position. The last few years, teams have generally respected our secondary. Which means they don't test us deep. Which means not so many interceptions and passes defensed for our safeties. Those stats don't mean anything.