mjt328

This was an excellent article. For anyone making their argument without taking the time to read it, I definitely think you should go back and reconsider. There are multiple reasons why modern NFL teams are foolish to draft Running Backs in the first round, and this touches on quite a few. Looking around the NFL, there are plenty of good RBs. But outside of Derrick Henry (who was a 2nd Round Pick himself), I can't think of any who are truly difference makers. As the article mentioned, teams see virtually no change in Win-Loss record with their star RB playing or with him out of the lineup. A great example is Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers went 5-11 with him playing 16 games. They went 5-11 with him playing 3 games. RB is also one of the easiest positions to find solid starters in the mid/late rounds: Just for comparison... as of this moment, 60% of the current starting Quarterbacks were drafted in the 1st Round. That number will almost certainly jump to over 70-75% following this year's draft, and depending on whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill win the starting job in New Orleans. The stat is almost identical for Left Tackles drafted in the 1st Round (around 60%). Positions like Edge Rusher, Cornerback and Wide Receiver are around 35-45% drafted in the 1st Round. For RBs, that number is currently less than 20%. It could rise or drop, depending on what happens next Thursday. Smart GMs know the sweet spot for RBs is the 2nd-3rd Round. I think Brandon Beane understands this, and will continue looking to upgrade the position with Day 2 picks or by addressing the O-Line first.

In most of the draft rankings I've seen, Jaysen Oweh is usually the #5 Edge Rusher (behind Kwity Paye, Azeez Ojulari, Jaelen Phillips and Gregory Rousseau). Most places have him as a borderline late 1st/early 2nd rounder. If the Bills scouts believe they can develop him, I have no problem with them taking Oweh at #30. But I think trading up for a boom/bust guy who probably would have fallen to #30, and who probably won't contribute at all this season. That would be a waste. The only situation where I would be OK with the Bills trading up, would be for someone who absolutely won't drop to our pick. The only Edge Rusher I see that being is Paye. It's very possible that one of the other guys will fall to #30. And if not an Edge Rusher, then one of the Top 4-5 Cornerbacks (personally I'm holding out hope for Caleb Farley).

Like any other draft, it depends on the position. Quarterback is incredibly strong at the top. But not very deep after the initial five guys. Wide Receiver and Offensive Tackle are both very strong at the top, and very deep into the mid-rounds. Then you have a historically great Tight End prospect, but very little after him. Unfortunately, the Bills need to upgrade the defense. And this draft is pretty pathetic on the defensive side. It's quite possible that nobody on the defensive side gets drafted into the Top 10. The best bets are Micah Parsons and Patrick Surtain, and neither of those guys are locks. And by the time you reach Pick #30, the first-round caliber guys could be gone already. Personally, I am hoping that Brandon Beane either: a) Trades up for someone like Kwity Paye or Jaycee Horn, if they manage to slip into the 20s b) Stays put and gets someone like Caleb Farley or Greggory Rousseau, who were ranked high two months ago and then dropped due to red flags c) Trades back 5-10 spots and gains an extra 2nd Round pick.

I've looked over dozens of "big board rankings" across the Internet, from ESPN and NFL.com to The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus. All of them have Trevor Lawrence as the #1 QB. All of them have Mac Jones as the #5 QB, behind some order of Zach Wilson, Justin Fields and Trey Lance. In fact, prior to the 49ers talk, most mock drafts expected Jones to fall outside the Top 10 and possibly even the Top 15. Now, it's not totally surprising that an NFL team would have Jones ranked higher than the media guys. That happens every single year with various draft prospects. But what I DO think is surprising, is seeing a team like the 49ers make a MASSIVE trade-up (2022 and 2023 first rounders) well over a MONTH before the draft. Before these QBs even had pro-day workouts. By simply waiting until draft night and watching how the picks fall, it's very likely that Jones would have fallen to them at #12. At the very least, the 49ers may have been able to move up less spots and given up less picks. Think about this. Basically we are saying Kyle Shanahan is one of the ONLY people in the football world who ranks Jones above Fields/Lance. AND Shanahan views the gap between those QBs to be so huge, that he refuses to settle for anyone but Jones. AND despite having a solid QB on the roster already in Jimmy G., he was willing to sacrifice two future drafts to ensure nobody could trade ahead and grab Jones. Not sure I'm buying all this. ///////////////////////////////////////////////// My feeling is that people in the media have assigned a "type" to Shanahan: Kirk Cousins. Matt Ryan. Jimmy Garoppolo. These are the types of QBs he's had success with, so he couldn't possibly be looking at something else. But I think Shanahan sees an evolution coming in the NFL. Arguably the best four QBs in the NFL in 2020 were Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson. All big-armed, strong, athletic, mobile and able to extend plays. Tom Brady has always been the anomaly, and is now the last remaining dinosaur from the pocket-passer era. One he's gone, that style of quarterbacking may become a thing of the past. Four years ago, the Chiefs were a regular playoff team with a strong roster and solid QB (Alex Smith). Andy Reid made the bold move to trade-up for a raw, high-ceiling prospect in Mahomes. And instead of rushing him into action, he let Mahomes sit the bench for a full year and develop behind the veteran. Not only did Smith respond with a career-year, but Mahomes emerged 12 months later to become possibly the best QB in the game. The Chiefs then won the Super Bowl in his second season starting. I think Shanahan is looking at Fields or Lance, and is planning on using the Kansas City model.

Since taking over as the Bills GM in 2017, Brandon Beane has spent only four draft premium picks (defined as Rounds 1-3) on the defense. In contrast, he has spent six premium picks (including the 1st Rounder for Stefon Diggs) on the offense. So the first answer to your question, is that Beane has thus far put a little more focus on the offensive side of the ball. Especially at QB, WR and O-Line. To expand on this point, you forget that until the 2020 (unexpected) down season, the Bills defense was Top 5 in the NFL. When you are already set at certain positions, you tend to focus on other places. Until now, Beane has no reason to add immediate impact players on defense. After adding Tremaine Edmunds to play MLB, both starting linebacker spots were good. With Tre White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde already on the team, he's pretty much just brought in competition for the #2 CB spot, and left the secondary alone for 2-3 years now. That pretty much just leaves the D-Line spots outside of Jerry Hughes. Almost ALL of the veteran player losses since Beane has taken over have been on the defensive front seven. Kyle Williams and Lorenzo Alexander retiring. Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips leaving in free agency. Star Lotulelei opting out. All of this has affected the overall continuity and success on the D-Line. But again, it really didn't show until last year. As a second answer to your question, I think your view of a "successful" draft pick or free agent signing is a little bit skewed. Not every player can be an HUGE IMPACT All-Pro star in the NFL. Not every guy shows up as a monster on the stat sheet. If a GM is able to grab a solid NFL starter, then I believe he's done a good job. I know that Bills fans argue endlessly about Edmunds. But the guy has been a starter in every NFL game he's every played in, has amassed over 110 tackles in each season of his career, and has been voted to the Pro-Bowl each of the last two years. If he becomes a free agent next year, he's going to be a full-time starter on his next team too. It's ridiculous to argue that he's a busted pick. In the same way, Ed Oliver has not become a huge force yet. But he absolutely was a solid starter last year, despite playing out of position (1-Tech) and taking double-teams a good chunk of the season. Don't be surprised if he takes a step this season. Many felt Harrison Phillips was ready to step into the 1-Tech starting role ahead of Star Lotulelei, prior to tearing his ACL. This was an unfortunate injury that he may never fully recover from. And obviously not Beane's fault. The Bills drafted A.J. Epenesa with the intention of completely changing his physique, and turning him from a strictly power rusher into a more versatile player. You can't judge him after one rookie season in the pros. On the free agent side, guys like Lotulelei and Mario Addison are considered disappointments by the fanbase. But they are solid starters.

And then you have trade-ups, such as the Chiefs move for Patrick Mahomes. If they really wanted a QB, they could have stayed-put (or even traded back) and landed a prospect like Deshone Kizer, Davis Webb or Nathan Peterman. Why would you waste valuable picks, when the draft is just a crap-shoot? It's easy to only point out the 1st Rounders who bust, the late rounders who surprise, and the times the pro scouts get it wrong. But by and large, the NFL scouts do an excellent job of identifying which talent has the best chance of succeeding. I saw a statistic recently that 60-70% of NFL starters were selected within the Top 3 Rounds (Top 100 players).

It always depends on the circumstance. You never want to make the decision on moving up or down, before seeing how the board is falling and what players are available. Unlike some of our previous GMs, Brandon Beane always sets himself up for maximum flexibility when entering the Draft. He could go up. He could go down. He could stay put. He could take (almost) any position on the roster.

Sometimes trade-ups are the best move. Sometimes a trade-down is better. Sometimes it's better to stay put. Each situation is different, depending on how a GM has players ranked, team need, overall value on the board, positional depth of the prospect class, what trade offers are available, etc., etc., etc. As you mentioned, the best draft move the Bills have made in the last 30+ years (if not ever) was trading up for Josh Allen. We also got a starting Left Tackle in Dion Dawkins in a draft day trade-up, just before Brandon Beane arrived on the scene. You can find other examples all across the NFL of trade-ups that worked out great. It's way too easy to look back years later with 20/20 vision and find late round picks who we "could" have taken. GMs can only go by their own scouting and rankings at the time. We needed a MLB for this defense, and our scouting department LOVED the potential for Tremaine Edmunds. At that time, nobody had Fred Werner close to the same tier, and Dareus Leonard plays on the weakside (like Matt Milano). The simple fact was... if they wanted Edmunds, they probably needed to make the trade-up to get him. Going into the offseason, I felt like the Bills needed to to upgrade their pass rush and secondary in order to compete with Kansas City. They did virtually nothing to address either position in Free Agency. So while I'm a believer in BPA and agree that we shouldn't get desperate in the draft - it would be very disappointing for me to see us walk out of the draft without a DE and CB in the first three rounds. Our overall roster is extremely deep and it will be tough for late-round draft selections to actually make the roster. So depending on how the board falls, I think a trade-up may be the smartest move. If someone like Kwity Paye, Jaelen Phillips, Caleb Farley or Jaycee Horn make it to around #20 (where we could get up for a mid-round pick), then I think Beane should strongly consider it.

I've done similar research on multiple sites, and also done multiple draft mocks on both the Draft Network and Pro Football Focus. Pretty much agree with your assessments. Personally, I would like the Bills to select either an Edge Rusher or Cornerback with their first pick. In every case, the Top 3 CBs are long-gone by #30. And if one of the top DEs drops, it's usually Gregory Rousseau (who has dropped huge due to his red flags). If I'm Brandon Beane, I think the best move would be to watch the board closely on draft night... then either jump up 5 slots or so to get a DE or CB that falls, OR trade back into the top of the 2nd Round and get someone like Asante Samuel Jr.. Then maybe do something similar to move higher with Pick #61, because we are in a similar predicament in that round (just out of reach of the best value guys).

I don't think people understand how early Kyle Pitts is going to be drafted. I also don't think they understand how much draft capitol it will cost to get that high. We all know the Top 3 picks are going to be QBs. That much is certain. But the next team is Atlanta. They already have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley (so Jamar Chase is highly unlikely). They already have Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary (so Penei Sewell does not meet a big need). Getting rid of Matt Ryan before 2023 would cost them over $40 million in dead cap (so I think the QB talk for them is a smokescreen). None of the defensive prospects are worthy of going that high. If the Falcons don't trade down, I think Pitts goes to them at #4. Look at how much the 49ers had to trade to get from #12 to #3. They gave up their 2022 first rounder, 2023 first rounder and 2021 third rounder. And yet there are people on this board who think we can package Tremaine Edmunds (just before we need to make a financial commitment to him) and a couple mid-round choices this year to move up 26 spots. In reality, we would be talking about mortgaging pretty much every 1st/2nd Round Pick for the next three drafts to get there. I don't care how good people think Pitts is going to be. If Beane sold the team's draft future for a Tight End (when we already have the #2 scoring and yardage offense in the NFL), it would possibly be the WORST move in the history of the franchise.

Yeah. I was fully expecting the Jets to trade Sam Darnold and take a QB at 32, so that wasn't surprising. What surprises me, is that Carolina was sitting at #8 and decided to make this move before seeing which QBs were available at their pick. Everyone knows Trevor Lawrence is going #1. The odds are heavily in favor of Zach Wilson at #2. After that, we know San Francisco is taking a QB. But nobody has a clue which one. I've seen solid arguments for all three (Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones), and any hints from the 49ers could easily be them blowing a smokescreen. To me, the smart money for Carolina was to wait until draft night and see who drops to #8. So by making the quick move for Darnold, that tells me that either: A) The Panthers were not comfortable with drafting any of the QBs outside of Lawrence and Wilson. B) They are pretty confident none of the QBs will drop to them at #8, and the price was too high to move up.

This post doesn't make much sense. Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott have always been very quick to recognize their mistakes (Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones for example), regardless of the investment made up-front. It's one of their strong points. Cody Ford is not guaranteed a starting spot in 2021 by any means (they also re-signed Jon Feliciano and tendered Ike Boettger). And if he does win the job, it will indeed be at one of the Guard spots. The Bills coaching staff slid him inside last year, so I don't understand the implication they are stubbornly playing him at Tackle. Coming out of the draft, there were a mix of opinions on whether Ford could play on the outside. The Bills were absolutely not the only ones in that boat. And I have no idea what the comment about Tremaine Edmunds means. The Bills haven't "anointed" him as anything, except the team's starting middle linebacker. Are you suggesting we should have been starting Tyrel Dodson instead? Are you suggesting the Bills should cut him? I'm not exactly sure what you think the team should be doing differently with Edmunds. The guy has been in the NFL for three years, is only 23 years old, and made the Pro-Bowl twice.

The Chiefs kept Alex Smith after drafting Patrick Mahomes. Smith responded with a career year, and it gave Mahomes the time needed to develop on the sidelines. Green Bay did the same thing (twice) with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, and then got an MVP-caliber year out of Rodgers after taking Jordan Love. Don't just assume the 49ers are guaranteed to trade away Garoppolo, just because of the trade-up. I truly believe their plan is to keep him for at least another year, while the #3 pick develops on the bench.

Fans really seem to misunderstand the concept of "Best Player Available." The idea is NOT that you completely ignore positional importance, or completely disregard the needs of the roster. The idea is that you don't REACH for a need position, when there are significantly better players available. Pound for pound, I would say Aaron Donald is probably the best football player in the NFL. But once you factor in positional importance, he may struggle to crack the Top 10.

Sam Darnold. You can't hit the target if you never take the shot. The only way a team can land a franchise QB is by continually drafting quarterbacks, until one of them finally succeeds. Maybe Darnold is a late bloomer. But at this point, I haven't seen much hope that he develops into the franchise guy. So for the Bills, the best scenario is probably the Jets sticking with him another 1-2 years and not drafting another high prospect.

Sounds about right, based on what I've heard. Outside of Cleveland (who had picks #1 and #4), the Bills had the best collection of capitol going into that draft. If a team in the Top 10 was interested in moving down, Buffalo was the first team for them to negotiate with. So as long as Beane kept in contact, there was very little danger that another franchise could suddenly leap into the fray and steal a spot ahead of them. Everybody knew the Browns were going QB at #1, and the Jets were going QB at #3. In his conversations with the various GMs, Beane correctly determined that neither the Giants (#2) or Colts (#6) were interested in trading down from their spots. The Browns were also not interested in moving from the #4 spot, since they already had tons of picks stockpiled. That left Denver at #5 and Tampa Bay at #7, and Beane has stated that tentative deals were agreed to with both franchises. When Bradley Chubb fell to the Broncos, the deal went to the Bucs and the rest is history.

Not sure what you mean by "Nickle LB." The definition of Nickel Defense is 5 defensive backs. Which almost always means taking the third linebacker off the field in favor of another cornerback or safety. Over the last few years, Nickel has basically become our base defense. I'm all for adding a Linebacker as depth. We could use to upgrade the spot currently occupied by A.J. Klein. But we just gave Matt Milano a big contract, and Tremaine Edmunds is probably going to be under contract for 2 more years. Those guys play close to 100% of the snaps, and almost never come off the field. Not sure a guy who plays less than 50% of snaps is worthy of a 1st Round selection.

Unfortunately, this is a weak draft at the top for Cornerback (actually almost every defensive position). The top three guys are Caleb Farley, Patrick Surtain II and Jaycee Horn. I would expect them to be long-gone by the time we pick - although there are some recent rumblings about Farley dropping due to injury concerns (not sure I believe them). I've done numerous mock drafts, and the value picks that usually fall to the Bills are almost always at positions we don't really need like Wide Receiver and Linebacker. The most likely CB options available at #30 include Asante Samuel Jr., Elijah Molden, Greg Newsome II and Tyson Campbell. Those guys are generally considered 2nd Round talents.

What he said. Unless you are drafting in the Top 5-10 picks (or determined to make a trade-up), there is no way a team picking #30 can have a particular guy in mind. I've been watching the draft for 20+ years and it's way too ridiculously unpredictable after the first handful of players. My understanding of Beane's drafting style is that he placed guys into tiers. As our pick gets closer and guys start coming off the board, he makes the determination on whether a trade-up is needed to secure somebody he wants, or if he can stay put or trade-back. Even in Josh Allen's case, I don't believe he was the Bills ONLY target that night. What if the Browns (#1) or Jets (#3) had taken Allen instead? Beane would have wasted trading Cordy Glenn, and then been left with a quarterback he didn't really want. Based on all the stories I have heard regarding the Allen pick, I believe Beane had narrowed things down to 3 QBs he was comfortable drafting, and was confident he could ultimately make the move high enough to land him.

Houston is going to want multiple 1st Round Picks (and probably more) in exchange for Deshaun Watson. It's hard to imagine any franchise making that kind of investment with all the legal issues currently hanging over his head. And those legal issues are unlikely to resolve before draft day, which is only a month away. The Jets are sitting at #2, and have Sam Darnold's 5th Year Option on the table. They need to make their QB decisions now. The Patriots are in a similar situation, although it's possible they miss-out on the top QB prospects without some kind of trade-up. The Dolphins appear to have already committed to Tua for the 2021 season. With all of that said... I wouldn't rule out some kind of mid-season trade, or Watson's status still being in flux at this time next year. So unfortunately, the possibility of Watson eventually landing in Miami or New England isn't really far-fetched.

The revenue loss from 2020 was divided between this year's cap and next. Otherwise every team in the NFL would have been forced to gut their roster like the Saints did, and everyone would have been in deep trouble paying existing contracts. So even if fan attendance gets back to normal this upcoming season, the cap isn't going to jump up crazy in 2022. Assuming the NFL can get back to pre-COVID attendance levels, the big cap increase is going to happen in 2023.

At this point, the Bills are already signing camp bodies to compete for the final roster spots. I wouldn't be certain that Jacob Hollister, Efe Obada or Matt Breida actually make the team after final cuts. I'll be honest. It's been a pretty uneventful and somewhat disappointing free agency. Yeah, I was thrilled we re-signed almost all of the guys I wanted to bring back. But I was really hoping we could get a veteran corner to upgrade on Levi Wallace, another good edge rusher to add into the rotation, and a real threat at tight end. Maybe we are waiting for the post-draft bargain bin, but right now it really appears that Beane is done (with anything other than back-end depth). Hopefully the draft goes well, because it just doesn't appear to be a deep class at our need-positions.

Looking at the roster as it stands, I see about 45-48 players that are pretty much roster locks. Barring trades or surprise cuts, that means we only have 5-8 open roster spots. With a total of 7 picks and the ensuing UDFA signings, I agree that using some of that capitol to move up may be wise. My feeling is that Buffalo's biggest needs are CB, DE and TE, with OG, RB and DT not far behind. I've done numerous mock drafts, and sometimes one of the need positions falls to us at #30. But there are other occasions where BPA is another wide receiver or middle linebacker, which would not be ideal. It will be an interesting draft, and we'll have to wait and see how the board falls.

The Dolphins were the only real threat last year. And they lost their (true) starting QB to free agency. They have a legitimately good roster overall - especially on defense, but I don't see any reason for Miami fans to be optimistic about Tua at this point. He was below average as a rookie, and didn't seem to get better as the season progressed. Without the luxury of Ryan Fitzpatrick come in to save the day, it's unlikely they would have won 10 games. With their playoff hopes on the line and them forced to play Tua the whole 4 quarters, our backups beat them 56-26. Fears about the Patriots are more related to PTSD (from two decades of abuse) than a legitimate concern about their roster. Yes, they added a ton of guys in free agency. And yes, they are getting some defensive starters back from opting out. But for every decent signing (Matthew Judon, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry), they also added a guys who I can't see making much impact (Jalen Mills, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor). Consider they finished SIX games behind Buffalo in the standings last year (we only finished two games behind them in 2019). That accounts for over 37% of the season. That's a tough number to catch. The Jets were probably the NFL's worst team last year, so they are at least 2-3 seasons away from making any noise in the division. It's hard not to picture them being better than 2020. But barring them adding Deshaun Watson, this is clearly the start of another rebuild.

Probably because after they come up with a new team name (let's say the Warriors), there will be new push to change the "Washington" part.