mjt328

The Ravens are probably the worst matchup for us on paper... but I also think our opinions are a little tainted based on that game earlier this year. I'm pretty sure things would go much different the second time around. That Week 4 game was the beginning of a rough 3-game stretch, where our outside receivers group and OC were trying to find their footing. Much has changed since early in the season. Since we added Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman started getting some experience under his belt, and Mack Hollins developed some chemistry, this offense has been on an absolute tear through the NFL. The Bills passing game would not struggle that badly again in a rematch. Don't forget, our defense was also missing key run defenders in the middle with Terrell Bernard and Taron Johnson (not to mention Matt Milano). Not to say these guys would cause us to completely shut-down Derrick Henry. But I certainly wouldn't expect him to just steamroll us again from the first snap. Finally, game script is hugely important. There is a reason that game was our first time being blown out in 3 years. Most teams cannot just run the ball down our throat all game, because they are worried about keeping up with Josh Allen and the offense. But when you combine our struggles at the time, along with the boost of Henry's quick TD run on the first play... it was just a perfect storm for them putting the whooping on us. And when we started getting some momentum and moving down the field, Joe Brady called that awful trick play that totally killed it. Like him or not, Lamar Jackson also has a history of playing poorly in the playoffs.

Best potential scenario is getting the bye... followed by Pittsburgh/Houston in the Divisional Round. Worst potential scenario is getting the #2 seed and being forced to play the extra Wild Card game... followed by Baltimore in the Divisional Round, and then Kansas City in Arrowhead for the AFC Championship. Yes, there is a very possible scenario that we end up with the worst of both worlds. Obviously we should be rooting for the Chiefs to lose, giving us a crack at the #1 slot. But if that doesn't happen, my hope is the Steelers win the AFC North. That would give us a much better shot at avoiding the Ravens in the playoffs. The Colts can't ever seem to beat the Jags with their season on the line. Their schedule seems easy. But I definitely wouldn't pencil them in at 3-0 down the stretch.

Lamar Jackson ranks slightly higher in his era (in my opinion, 3rd behind Mahomes and Allen). Kelly was probably #4 in his era (behind Marino, Montana and Elway). However, I think Jackson wouldn't have made it physically back in the 80's-90's. Injuries would have piled up and hurt his career. In today's game, Kelly would have dominated even more. In regards to MVP... that award was regularly given to running backs and receivers back in those days. So there was way more competition to win it. Today it is almost exclusively a QB award, with rare exceptions. Kelly rarely had the stats of his peers either, mostly due to Thurman Thomas getting a ton of work.

Excellent post. Younger fans have absolutely NO IDEA how much the rules have changed the NFL over the last 20-30 years, and how it's DRASTICALLY inflated offensive production and passing numbers. You can't even start to compare the different generations by simply looking at stats. The game is way easier for QBs today. It's a total joke to bring up things like yards, completion percentage or interceptions. Jim Kelly in 2024 gets a huge boost in stats. Today's passers in 1990 find things way tougher, and get a big drop. You mentioned the rules made to protect the QB, which is obviously huge for longevity. Guys can play 5-10 years longer, stay healthier during the season, and feel more comfortable throwing in the pocket with far less threat of taking a serious injury. But what about things like illegal contact, which has made pass defense a million times more difficult for corners? Or penalties for DBs hitting defenseless receivers, which makes it way easier to work the ball over the short/middle of the field? QBs today get tons of free checkdown yards now, which weren't available to guys back in Jim Kelly's day. More easy yards. Higher completion percentage. Less reason to risk interceptions. The list goes on and on. Kelly was one of the smartest and toughest QBs who ever played. A tremendous leader. He was very accurate, and had a powerful arm comparable with most starters in the NFL today. What else could you possibly want? He absolutely would be amongst the elite passers in today's game. And his stats would certainly be much better than what he posted during his career, due to all the reasons above. Throw in today's advancements in athletic training, he's Top 3 for sure, if not the top guy in the entire league. You also make a great point about Patrick Mahomes and how well his style may not have actually fit so well back in Kelly's day... but it also somewhat applies to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. All of those guys are currently doing things the NFL has never truly seen before. But their mobility and ability to extend plays is clearly boosted by today's rules... which are specifically intended to protect QBs. There is a reason that "running quarterbacks" had trouble succeeding in the pros back then, and the few who did (Steve Young, Randall Cunningham) had relatively short careers compared to the pocket guys. Allen may be the outlier because of his size, but he's still taking much less punishment than he would have back in the 1980s or 1990s.

I'm fine with rivalries. But I wish opposing fans could show some respect, and not always try to put down the other guy's QB in an attempt to make their own guy look good. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are all fantastic players, fun to watch, and on a HOF career trajectory. Jackson is having a great season. But simply on the basis of consistency, he is not the league MVP in 2024. Just last year, he won the award... despite being outside the Top 10 in most passing statistical categories. The reasoning was because of his team's record, and his performance in the biggest games of the regular season -- most notably the 49ers on Christmas Day. Based on the consistent standards MVP voters have set for the award, Allen deserves it this year.

You answered your own question exactly. All of these reasons above.

I'm sure Mahomes hurt his ankle. And I'm sure it's painful. But we've seen this over exaggeration drama from him before... getting carried off the field by teammates, and then "miraculously" finding a way to play. My guess is that he's questionable all week. But I will be shocked if he doesn't start on Sunday.

Thought about that too. But outside of the Ravens/Texans games early in the season (before we got settled at the outside WR position), this is really the Josh Allen that we've gotten all season long. I don't think we are just seeing him in the zone. I think he's actually elevated himself to another level. Part of the reason he wasn't putting up 3-5 touchdowns EVERY week is simply because he hasn't had to... He's sat an entire game worth of 4th quarters, because the Bills were so far ahead.

The Bills now have one of the best O-Lines in the entire NFL, along with a really good running game. And even without an elite #1 wide receiver, they have an extremely versatile, consistent and effective group of weapons. So I would not agree that it's all Josh Allen. The defense has been really good for a chunk of the season, and is one of the best at creating turnovers. When they aren't good though, they are terrible (like the past two games). And they always seem to be dealing with clusters of injuries at the same position. Top 3 safeties, starting corner and starting linebacker down.

But what does it say when OUR quarterback puts up 6 touchdowns and still loses the game? We can't expect Allen to play at that kind of level every week.

I'm not someone calling for Sean McDermott to get fired. But I do understand the frustration, and the feeling that he is holding us back. Listen around the league, and you are starting to hear national voices recognize what we've been saying the last 2-3 years here. The Bills are rapidly wasting the prime of Josh Allen's career. There are no guarantees how long he will remain in this elite class. And when it's over, there are no do-overs. Every postseason loss can be attributed heavily to poor coaching decisions, combined with a defense (McDermott's baby) that simply VANISHES and has no answers for even slowing down the opposing offense. A unit that somehow plays so POORLY for four quarters, that even historic level play from the Quarterback cannot bring the team to victory. No, the Rams game was not a playoff matchup. But it looked EXACTLY like one. It was as close to the "13 Seconds" game as we have witnessed in the past three years. Which begs the question... what have we learned since that point to get us over the hump? My fear (and many others) is that nothing has been learned, and we are bound for another total defensive collapse in January.

How many times do you remember Richard Seymour, Willie McGinest or Vince Wilfork making the huge game-changing play on the D-Line that won New England the Super Bowl or even a big playoff game? That's what we were talking about, correct? None of those guys were elite game-wreckers. They were good players who got HOF consideration because of their association with the Patriots. I'm not saying we can't upgrade on the D-Line. I just don't think we NEED a TJ Watt, Myles Garrett or Chris Jones level player in order to win a Super Bowl. We just need our good players like Greg Rousseau and Ed Oliver to not completely disappear in big games.

I was thinking about elite QBs during my lifetime who failed to even make a Super Bowl. The only guys I could think of were Warren Moon and Phillip Rivers. Both of those guys had multiple Hall of Fame quarterbacks to get past on a yearly basis in the AFC. Moon had Jim Kelly, John Elway and Dan Marino. Rivers had Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger.

Who are the superstars on the Lions? The Eagles? Greg Rousseau and Christian Benford have played at an exceptional superstar level all season long. Terrell Bernard has been a regular force in the middle. The Bills have gotten All-Pro play out of guys like Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, Tre White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde over the years. I get what you are saying. But the NFL has plenty of championship teams that didn't have someone like Chris Jones or TJ Watt on defense. I would argue the New England Patriots never had that kind of player on defense during their ridiculous dynasty run. Closest thing was probably Vince Wilfork, and he was more of a reliable anchor DT than someone who made big plays in big moments. It's clear the Bills failure to make/win a Super Bowl can be traced back to the defense. I'm just not so sure it's due to a lack of talent or lack of superstars. There has to be SOME reason why EVERYONE on that side of the ball can play consistently strong 95% of a season, and then suddenly disappear for an entire game.

My confusion is... I don't know if the problem is the scheme. Lots of other teams have found championship success with a similar-style defense to the Bills. And very few teams run this scheme with the expertise and perfection as we usually do. We've seen various levels of aggression and playcalling combos with Leslie Frazier, McDermott himself and now Bobby Babich. This year we are seeing more adjustments than in the years past. The defense couldn't get pressure in the first half with 4 guys. They blitzed more in the second half, and still couldn't get to Stafford. They usually play zone. But I saw lots of man coverage throughout the game. Nickel, Dime. And they still got picked apart easily. The Ravens just steamrolled us with their running game earlier this season. But against the Rams, it was mostly the passing game (not that our rush defense was halfway decent either). For some inexplicable reason, this defense plays at a consistently high-level season after season, for about 95% of the year, even with tons of backups forced into the lineup... and then somehow puts together 1-2 games where it's like every player on that side of the ball is being affected by a voodoo curse and forgot how to play football.

I understand the gripes with Sean McDermott's game management. But I literally see the same kinds of mistakes (or worse) from other coaches around the NFL on a weekly basis. Including from guys like Andy Reid, John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Dan Campbell, etc. Imagine if Campbell's goofy 4th-Down decision last week backfired, and it ultimately cost the Lions the #1 seed or the division? Especially after what happened in last year's NFC Championship game. Coaches make huge game-changing decisions every week. But I don't see anyone who constantly gets things right.

It's OK to sometimes have a bad game. Happens to everyone. It's really not OK to have performances like yesterday. Ever. And we seem to have it happen a couple times every season. Remember the perfect game we had against the Patriots in the Wild Card game. The defense is basically playing 95% of that bad.

Without the punt block, the Rams would have gotten the ball 30-40 yards farther down the field. And they would have proceeded to go on a 10-play, 6 minute touchdown drive anyway. If the Bills had saved all three timeouts at the very end, the Rams would have still gotten a first down and iced the game. I know everyone wants to blame the coach (as usual). But we really need to figure out why the defense is even capable of games like this. It doesn't seem to matter who is in charge (Leslie Frazier, Sean McDermott, Bobby Babich). It doesn't seem to matter if we rush 4 or blitz. It doesn't seem to matter if we play zone or man coverage. Every season we get 1-2 games where that side of the ball doesn't even show up to play.

This defense is unexplainable. Every year, they are statistically a Top 5-10 unit across the entire NFL. (Even after yesterday's debacle which dropped them way down the list, they are still ranked #8 in scoring defense, #1 in turnovers and #9 against the pass). Their adjusted numbers are even better on most advanced analytical sites. The Bills have multiple games each season where they totally confuse and harass elite veteran QBs and coaches. Even ones who see them all the time. A great example is Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes just a few weeks ago. Yet somehow, we also have 1-2 times every season (and always in the playoffs)... where this defense performs no better than putting a bunch of traffic cones on the field. Not just bad. Not just terrible. But absolutely incapable of getting stops ALL GAME LONG. Every team has bad moments and bad games. But the Bills push it to the absolute extreme. How is it possible to play at such a high level for 15-16 games, and then suddenly morph into the most inept unit in the entire NFL for four quarters. It's baffling to me. Yesterday's performance was pathetic. I hear what you are saying about the D-Line. But the Bills couldn't generate the slightest pressure when they blitzed either. Guys were WIDE open all over the field, even with us grabbing jerseys. Zone defense or in man coverage, defensive backs couldn't make a play to save their lives. I don't think anyone was able to get off a block all day. And tackling was ridiculously awful. I don't want to hear about the lack of elite playmakers on the D-Line either. There are only a handful of guys in the NFL like TJ Watt, Myles Garrett or Chris Jones, and very few teams can boast having someone like that on the roster. Our talent on the front line is absolutely comparable to other top teams like the Lions and Eagles. Yet somehow even on their worst days, those teams can find ways to at least get a couple stops. The big fear amongst Bills Mafia is that yesterday's game was only a preview of what will happen (again) in the postseason.

Lamar Jackson is just getting his bye week now. Josh Allen also has about a half-dozen games this year where he didn't even play in the 4th Quarter.

Stats always factor into the MVP conversation. But it really comes down to the narrative created by the sports media. Allen's biggest problem in 2023 was that his worst games all came during Primetime with everyone watching. It started the Week 1 opener with three interceptions against the Jets on Monday Night. A month later, the offense struggled horribly and we almost lost to the Giants on Sunday Night. Finally that messy Monday Night loss to the Broncos, where he had three more turnovers. By the time the Bills rallied and turned the season around, the story about Allen had become his turnovers. This year, the Bills are undefeated in Primetime with three blowout wins in front of a national audience. Allen isn't turning the ball over. Plus he's had two HUGE eyebrow raising plays down the stretch, against last year's Super Bowl teams. That is why he's considered the leader. It's not in the bag for #17. There are still five games left for the narrative to shift again. His performance against the Lions is going to be huge. It needs to be something that really sticks in people's minds. Because Barkley ends the season against the Giants. If he breaks the rushing record against his old team, and the Eagles get the #1 seed in the NFC... there is going to be a huge push for him to get it. Trust me.

The argument for Lamar Jackson is totally stat related, which is fine. But he still hasn't had his bye week. People are acting like he's having some kind of historical numbers season. But Jackson only has 5 more touchdowns (32) than Josh Allen (27) with an extra game in his pocket. That lead could easily disappear over the final month of the season. Guessing that some voters will also penalize him for having another MVP candidate (Derrick Henry) on the same offense. Not to mention the high number of losses (5 and counting). Hard to win the MVP when your team doesn't even win the division. Saquan Barkley is now a legitimate threat for the MVP award. He's currently on pace to break the single-season rushing record, which is definitely going to resonate with a bunch of voters. And the Eagles record is also the same as ours. He may get some sympathy votes from "old school" voters who don't like how the NFL has treated the running back position recently. Hopefully they are willing to factor in the number of games jumping to 17, when Eric Dickerson did it in 16 games. The MVP award is mostly about narrative. There is still a full month of football left in the season. So it's going to be about leaving a final impression in the minds of the voters during the final stretch. Jackson basically sealed the deal last year on Christmas Day, when he played fantastic and the Ravens totally dismantled the 49ers in a huge primetime matchup. For Allen, that final impression will probably be the Lions game on December 15. Very few people are going to pay attention to his performance against the Patriots/Jets, unless it's really bad.

Don't be surprised if the Bills have zero Pro Bowlers this year. The NFL is stupid and lets the fans pick. Which means it's partially a popularity contest, partially based on fantasy football/stats, partially based on which markets are bigger (that's why Dallas has a dozen guys make it every season) and partially based on whoever announcers decide to hype up during the year. Lots of voters know less than nothing and will just pick everyone from their hometown team. That puts us at a huge disadvantage right from the get-go, because Buffalo is one of the smaller markets. We also have a huge market (New York/Jets) that will purposely NOT vote for anyone on our team. Patrick Mahomes could get put on IR on Week 1 and still make the Pro Bowl, because he's the face of the NFL. Lamar Jackson is also extremely popular around the country and has great stats this year. He won't miss it. They only pick three guys, so I would give Josh Allen a maybe 50/50 shot to get voted in. Either he gets snubbed, or Joe Burrow does. Just like every other season. In fantasy football, we used to have Stefon Diggs putting up big numbers. But since we spread the ball around now, none of our RBs or WRs have the fantasy stats to catch anyone's attention, so forget anyone like Khalil Shakir or James Cook getting in. All the rest of the positions (O-Line, D-Line, Linebackers, Secondary) will get in based on how much CBS, Fox, NBC and ESPN decide to actually talk about those players. When was the last time you heard the announcers rave about how fantastic Christian Benford was at cornerback? Or Terrell Bernard at linebacker? How much chance does Greg Rousseau have in a conference with TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, Max Crosby, etc.? About as much chance as Ed Oliver had last year. How many years did we watch Matt Milano get snubbed (and now he's hurt for the second straight year)? Taron Johnson is finally getting some talk, but he won't make it over big-name guys like Sauce Gardner and Jalen Ramsey. I give Dion Dawkins a tiny chance, and that's about it.

As a Bills fan, I understand the desire to put Allen above Mahomes. But an unbiased person just cannot do that. Our guy took a couple years to develop and didn't fully break-out as an elite player until 2000. By that point, Mahomes was already a Super Bowl champion, MVP and 2x All-Pro. Since then, they have been statistically neck/neck. But Mahomes has also won two additional Super Bowls and another MVP... defeating Allen/Buffalo in the playoffs three times along the way. Both guys have been individually great in the playoffs. But Allen has been pulled down by the team around him (coaching, defense, weapons) in the biggest moments. Mahomes has found a way to overcome them. That has to be a factor.

The ideal scenario is that we get the bye. If we don't, this is the next best "realistic" scenario I could figure out. Bills get the #2 seed. They matchup with the #7 in the Wild Card Round. Best bet would be Denver or Indianapolis. Hoping Cincinnati doesn't go on a tear and scrape its way into the playoffs. They are tougher than their record. Pittsburgh gets the #3 and defeats Los Angeles at #6. Houston gets the #4 and loses to Baltimore at #5. In this case, we get the Steelers in the Divisional Round... then face the winner of Chiefs vs. Ravens in the AFC Championship.