mjt328

Skeptical. Does anyone actually have links to his previous mock drafts? I can only find a link to 2020, where the Bills didn't have a 1st Round Pick. Not sure this guy is as accurate as he's touting himself. In 2019, I did about 100 simulation mock drafts in the weeks leading up the draft. (Love those things by the way...) I took Ed Oliver almost every time, and I had zero inside information, outside of being a close fan of the team. In 2018, everyone on the planet knew the Bills were going to pick a QB. And most had it narrowed down to Josh Rosen or Josh Allen by this point. I'm sure he didn't call us trading up for Tremaine Edmunds later in the draft. In 2017, many fans were expecting and hoping for a trade down. I would like to see if he called it being with the Chiefs, or us picking Tre White. Unlikely.

Yes. Reggie Ragland or Brandon Spikes.

Maybe Ray Lewis was a bad example. What I mean is that he's not looking for the old-school type of run stuffer.

This draft has plenty of talent in the first 2-3 rounds. There are just so many question marks, due to COVID opt-outs, the shortened season, and incomplete medical checks. It's a real mess. Guys like Caleb Farley and Jaelen Phillips look like Top-10 guys on tape. But they are huge medical red-flags. Some teams may still be OK taking them early, while other teams may take them off their board completely if they can't get a clear report from the doctor. Usually I would be optimistic we could just sit-back like Ozzie Newsome and take whoever drops. But the numbers game is just not in our favor this year, and it's hard to see a 1st-Round caliber talent fall all the way to #30. There are only so many guys who can get pushed down. Once you get past the first 15-20 players, there is a clear drop-off. Then I don't see a lot of separation between #21 and the next 30 prospects. If I'm Brandon Beane, my first instinct is to explore a trade into the early 20s. But if the price is too high, then I'm doing everything in my power to move back. Pickup a 2022 second rounder. Get a veteran player tossed in. Because the value of the guy you pick at #30 is going to be roughly the same as the guy you pick at #40.

I absolutely believe that Brandon Beane is making calls to GMs about the cost to move up. Whether he actually makes a move is unknown. I also doubt that Travis Etienne is truly his target. And the fact that everyone is reporting this "leak" tells me he almost certainly will not be the pick. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah would actually be an excellent selection, and would be worthy of a trade-up. Looking at the Beane/McDermott's history with Carolina, I could definitely see them making that kind of move. For a team that loves versatility, he's the ultimate chess piece. He could replace AJ Klein in base sets. He could be a hybrid safety in some of our nickel packages. And he could be an extra rusher on passing downs. Basically how McDermott used Lorenzo Alexander before he retired (only younger and more physically gifted). But if you draft Koramoah and then trade away Edmunds, it removes the ability for him to be that versatile weapon. He basically just steps in for Edmunds at MLB, and we are back to square one. Yeah, it makes some sense in terms of saving cap space. But we don't really need to worry about that until 2022, and this would just seem like one step forwards, one step backwards. I'm not sure what the Bills are thinking with Edmunds and the 5th Year Option. Even if they don't pick it up, it's not like he's a guaranteed goner. It just means he becomes a Free Agent one year sooner, and 2021 will be his last year to earn the big contract. But it also wouldn't surprise me if they pick it up. Like has been stated on this board 1,000 times, McDermott is NOT looking for a traditional MLB in the center of his defense. He does not want a Ray Lewis-type who is built to shed blocks and stuff the run game. It is the job of our D-Line to occupy the blockers, giving our Linebackers the ability to run around freely. The biggest issue for Edmunds is making the proper reads and not getting out of position. But physically speaking, he is EXACTLY what the Bills want in the middle.

Looking at the draft order, the Broncos are really the only QB-needy team between the 49ers and Patriots. Yes, Atlanta, Miami, Detroit and Carolina could easily be persuaded to move down. But it will take a willing partner. Teams like Washington and Chicago pick late and don't have quite the ammunition needed to move-up, without totally mortgaging their future. There are a couple key questions that will likely determine what happens with the Patriots. Are the Mac Jones/49ers rumors true? If they take Justin Fields or Tre Lance, I think the market will be hot to get the other guy at Atlanta's picks. Then Jones probably drops to 15. If they take Jones, then teams will realize they can wait. Fields/Lance could potentially then drop to #7-8, and into better range for the Patriots. Is Denver truly ready to move-on from Drew Lock? Outside of the Patriots, they are the best candidate for a trade-up.

Exactly. The 49ers have absolutely no reason to be so secretive. They could announce their player this afternoon, and it would change nothing. If you factor in 10-15 minutes of introduction, and then 10 minutes on the clock for each pick (teams always use the majority of their time)... then fans have no reason to tune-in until 7:30-7:45pm (I'm in CST). That's a total ratings waste for the NFL. Not to mention all the gambling/betting that is going on with the #3 pick.

NFL scouts usually value "projection" above "production." Not to mention, this is a copycat league and two of the most successful QBs (Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen) came out of college as extremely raw prospects with infinite physical upside. Yes, Justin Fields is a good athlete with a strong arm. But when you look past his college stats, his ceiling is probably a notch below Zach Wilson and Tre Lance. And despite the great results on the field, there are bad habits on film (such as staring down his initial reads) that may be tough to break. Sometimes more experience is not a good thing when it comes to teaching. Also, I'm not buying the Mac Jones hype at all. The 49ers haven't given any hints who they really prefer, and I think the media has really blown this speculation out of control with no real facts to back it up. Part of me thinks the NFL is encouraging the drama, because they want good ratings for the draft, and the first two picks are already set in stone. According to those in the know, Kyle Shanahan preferred Kirk Cousins over RGIII all those years ago, but was smart enough to recognize value and waited until the 4th Round to take him. I just can't see this team trading away their 2022-2023 drafts to pick the #5 ranked QB, who almost certainly would have been their at #12 anyway. Either way, it's not like Fields is going to be dropping crazy down the boards. I think he could still go #3 to the 49ers or #4 in a trade-up. At worst, I can't see him dropping past #8.

I believe we can win 13 games again. I believe we can win the AFC East again. I believe we can make the AFC Championship again. My problem is believing we can defeat the Kansas City Chiefs. We were 0-2 last year, and I don't think we've taken the steps necessary to vault above them. We tried two different gameplans, and failed both times. And honestly, neither game was particularly close. The first time we tried playing "keep away" from Patrick Mahomes, and got totally stampeded by their run game. The second time we played our regular McDermott zone defense and hoped our offense could outperform theirs. The offense choked and the pass defense was absolutely destroyed. In contrast, Tampa Bay showed the way to beat the Chiefs is by getting heavy pressure. I agree our offense played bad in the Championship Game. But our solution for beating the Chiefs can't just be... "Score 40 points and cross your fingers!" Our defense needs to be able to make some stops against them. The McDermott defense is dependent on having a strong pass rush from the D-Line. Our guys can't seem to handle that job, so I would say more talent is needed. That is players. Not just gameplan. Be honest. You never heard of Efe Obada before he signed with Buffalo. He is not the answer to our pass rush. Star Lotulelei should help a little, but he's getting up there in age and sat out an entire season. I am also hoping for a big step from AJ Epenesa, but it's also realistic to expect Jerry Hughes/Mario Addison to take a step back. The offseason isn't over. But that's kind of the point of this thread. If we waste a 1st Rounder (and more) to land Travis Etienne, you can say goodbye to upgrading the D-Line in 2021.

I'll be completely honest. This has been a terrible and horribly disappointing offseason for the Bills. At least so far. Our biggest free agent additions have been a backup quarterback (on a one-year deal) and swapping John Brown for Emmanuel Sanders (basically a wash if both guys are healthy). Nothing has been done to upgrade the pass rush. Nothing has been done to improve the secondary. To make matters worse, our rivals in the AFC East have made some nice improvements. The Dolphins are loaded with draft picks to upgrade an already strong roster. The Jets are a few days away from getting a potential franchise QB, and also have a ton of selections. And after filling tons of holes in free agency, don't be surprised if Justin Fields falls in Bill Belichick's lap on Thursday night. Yuck. This offseason was Brandon Beane's golden opportunity to solidify the Bills among the NFL's elite teams. Our performance in the AFC Championship Game was awful. It was disgustingly bad. We didn't even look like legit competition for the Chiefs. Then two weeks later, the world saw Tampa Bay lay-out the blueprint for beating them. And it wasn't by featuring a Pro-Bowl running back. I don't understand how anyone could watch Chiefs receivers running open all game, and be fine with the exact same players in coverage. I don't understand how anyone could watch the Super Bowl, and be fine with trotting out the exact same group of pass rushers. I want to trust Beane. And in many ways, he's earned our trust as Bills fans. But I cannot imagine how picking a RUNNING BACK in the first round (especially with a trade-up) could possibly be the answer. Just look to the #4 team picking in the draft (Atlanta) to see how quickly a championship-caliber roster can fall apart due to bad decisions.

So wait a minute. I'm confused. You say the 2021 draft has less eligible players than normal (meaning less depth in later rounds). Due to the COVID opt-outs, shortened season and incomplete medical checks, there is also a lot of uncertainty about how players should be properly ranked (meaning greater risk of busts in all rounds). And due to the change in eligibility rules, the 2022 draft is going to have more incoming players than usual (meaning greater depth in later rounds). And our logical response is to basically trade away all of our 2021 and 2022 picks, so we can move up for just one player? Wouldn't it be the complete opposite? Wouldn't this be the draft to move back, and stockpile extra picks in next year's draft?

Brandon Beane is a good General Manager. The Bills are now a very well-run organization. It's hard for me to believe this rumor, because trading up for a RB in the first round is something a team like the Jets or Bengals would do.

I've been thinking the Falcons really want to trade down, with Kyle Pitts as the backup plan if nobody gives them a good enough deal. If you really think about it, Pitts is really the only player to make sense (unless they are looking to trade Julio Jones). - In March, they restructured Matt Ryan's contract to give themselves more cap space. But in doing so, they basically made it impossible to cut/trade him until 2023. If they are considering a QB at #4, it was beyond stupid to commit themselves to Ryan for another two years. - With Jake Matthews (LT) and Kaleb McGary (RT), they have a lot invested at Offensive Tackle already. Hard to see them going for a player like Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater in the Top 10, just so they can push someone inside to Guard. - This draft really doesn't have defensive players worthy of a Top 5 pick. They could probably trade down and land one of the top Cornerbacks, Edge Rushers or Linebackers. - I also figured Wide Receiver was a long-shot, since they already have Jones and Calvin Ridley. If they are looking at the market for Jones, that tells me they are possibly considering Ja'Marr Chase at #4.

Does this mean the Falcons are considering Ja'mar Chase at #4?

Technically speaking, the employer is the NFL. Not the individual teams. When a player is drafted, this would be like getting hired at a company and then being transferred to a particular department. The big difference is that instead of managers splitting up employees inside a private conference room, it is done via a public draft. Ask Mike Florio how many employees sign for 6-7 figure contracts right out of college. It's amazing to me how entitled the people in this country are becoming. There are sports figures making $10+ million per year at 27 years old, who go around saying they are treated like slaves, and complaining how life is so unfair for them. And they are being completely serious when they say it. Honestly, it's disgusting.

No Jaelen Phillips? Or do you not think he has a chance of lasting until 30?

Running Back is usually the position most ready to play Year 1. Lots of rookie RBs finish Top 5-10 in the league in rushing. Other positions take at least 2-3 years to develop. With that said, I am going to answer Caleb Farley. Many consider him the best Cornerback to come out in a few years (in pure talent). The question with him is long-term viability due to injuries, which is why he could possibly drop to our pick. He would be a huge addition across from Tre White.

There are a lot of great observations in this thread, regarding our defensive scheme. I tend to agree with this. Especially if we are looking to eventually beat the Chiefs. Sean McDermott's scheme is very good most of the time. But there are times when our zone coverage is just getting picked apart, and I'm screaming at the tv screen to make some kind of adjustment. We just don't seem to have the capabilities to switch to a press/man coverage on the fly, and it's something I wish could change. As several pointed out, it's rare to see Kansas City suffer a breakdown on the O-Line like they did in the Super Bowl. Even if we somehow manage to improve our pass rush in the draft, I'm not sure we can replicate what Tampa Bay did in that game. In my opinion, we also need some help in the secondary. Not just role players who are decent in zone, but guys who can play man.

This exactly. Schemes only work with the right personnel. Most of the longtime Bills fans seem to lean towards Wade Phillips. But don't forget that defense was absolutely stacked. Bruce Smith was possibly the best pass rusher of all-time. He was next to Ted Washington, who was possibly the best nose tackle ever. Not to mention guys like Phil Hansen and a growing star in Sam Cowart (I was always so upset how injuries ruined his career). Same with the Jim Schwartz Wide-9, which had an incredible D-Line with Mario Williams, Marcel Dareus, Kyle Williams and Jerry Hughes. Honestly, I'm back and forth on Sean McDermott's scheme. Sometimes it seems to have a strong balance of aggression. Other times it seems way too passive. Sometimes it seems versatile and adaptable, allowing us to make strong in-game adjustments. Other times (like the AFC Championship for instance) I get frustrated that we continue to stick with the same coverages and pressure packages, when it clearly isn't stopping the opponent. Sometimes our defense seems fundamentally sound, with the players in-sync and doing their jobs. Other times, I feel like our guys completely forget things like tackling and gap integrity.

Please given an example where Beane has not drafted BPA.

If you look at the Bills roster, the only position where a rookie could potentially start on Day 1 is at Running Back. All the other spots have solid veterans in place for 2021. And even if the Bills drafted Travis Etienne/Najee Harris, it's very possible they are forced to play behind Devin Singletary/Zack Moss at first. Not sure anything can be taken from Beane's comments. Also, there hasn't been a "delay" in activating the 5th-Year Option on Tremaine Edmunds. The deadline isn't until after the draft, and none of the NFL teams have activated those options yet. The Bills haven't done it for Josh Allen either.

BPA makes sense in tiers. At #30, you shouldn't pass on a guy you have marked as a Top 10 talent, just because of greater need at a different position. But you also don't neglect need just because the WR is #28 on your board, and the CB is ranked #29. As stated, I'm not a fan of taking a WR at #30. But if Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle or Devonte Smith fall to us, then I'm racing to the podium and taking a WR. The highest I've seen Rondale Moore ranked is around the #20-25 area, and most seem to have him ranked in the mid-2nd Round. Unless the Bills scouts see something nobody else in the football world does, I don't see any reason how Moore could possibly be a significant BPA at #30.

The two strongest position groups on our team are QB and WR. It would be really tough for me to get behind the Bills drafting a guy at #30, who would be a slot only guy and playing his rookie year as #5 on the depth chart. Not to mention that it would signal to Cole Beasley (who just had a career-year) that 2021 is his last year with the team, and his services are no longer needed. Don't forget how important culture is to this roster. If you are worried about age eventually catching up to Beasley, grab a developmental guy in the later rounds who can maybe take his place in 2-3 seasons. A first rounder is basically saying that we don't want him anymore. In my opinion, Buffalo's best chance at surpassing the Kansas City Chiefs is by finding a way to slow down their offense. Our team was #2 in scoring and #2 in yards last year. Unlike on the defensive side of the ball, there isn't a lot of room to get better on offense. Unless one of the top talents unexpectedly falls, I would be disappointed if our primary targets aren't at Edge Rusher or Cornerback. And if BPA isn't matching up with those positions at #30, that would be the time to trade-up or trade-down.

As a whole, the "rushing attack" does play an important role in the offense. Even on teams that pass most of the time, it helps keep the defense honest when deciding how to stack the line of scrimmage. The argument is more about how much value we should place in the individual "star" running back. Using your Cleveland example... do the Browns really lose much when Nick Chubb is out? If he was traded away, and they just rolled with Kareem Hunt and a new 3rd Round draft pick, would there be a significant change in the Win-Loss record? Of course there is no way to know for sure. But based on statistics compiled over the last decade, the suggestion is probably no. Recent history shows that even when you draft a superstar RB (Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs for example) those players make almost no difference in the Win/Loss record when they are in the lineup. Recent history shows that superstar RBs generally usually threaten a holdout after Season 3, get a big contract and then see an almost immediate big drop in production (Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Elliott). Recent history suggests that superstar RBs can be easily found in later rounds (Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Johnathan Taylor). All of this tells me that drafting a 1st Round RB is just not smart business.

This was an excellent article. For anyone making their argument without taking the time to read it, I definitely think you should go back and reconsider. There are multiple reasons why modern NFL teams are foolish to draft Running Backs in the first round, and this touches on quite a few. Looking around the NFL, there are plenty of good RBs. But outside of Derrick Henry (who was a 2nd Round Pick himself), I can't think of any who are truly difference makers. As the article mentioned, teams see virtually no change in Win-Loss record with their star RB playing or with him out of the lineup. A great example is Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers went 5-11 with him playing 16 games. They went 5-11 with him playing 3 games. RB is also one of the easiest positions to find solid starters in the mid/late rounds: Just for comparison... as of this moment, 60% of the current starting Quarterbacks were drafted in the 1st Round. That number will almost certainly jump to over 70-75% following this year's draft, and depending on whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill win the starting job in New Orleans. The stat is almost identical for Left Tackles drafted in the 1st Round (around 60%). Positions like Edge Rusher, Cornerback and Wide Receiver are around 35-45% drafted in the 1st Round. For RBs, that number is currently less than 20%. It could rise or drop, depending on what happens next Thursday. Smart GMs know the sweet spot for RBs is the 2nd-3rd Round. I think Brandon Beane understands this, and will continue looking to upgrade the position with Day 2 picks or by addressing the O-Line first.