mjt328

My observation is that our run game problems start with the O-Line. Until our RBs can (at least) get to the line of scrimmage without needing to dodge a defender, I don't want to hear about using money/draft picks upgrading that position.

The Dallas and Pittsburgh games last year were great wins for an emerging Wild Card level team. But they mean very little for a team trying to win the AFC East and establish themselves as a championship contender. Don't forget that both of those teams ultimately missed the playoffs last year. Regardless of the original scheduling, primetime is primetime. Night games and playoff matchups get another level of fans, most of whom never watch the Bills on Sunday afternoons. The whole NFL world was watching against the Titans and Chiefs. And instead of establishing themselves as the class of the league, the Bills embarrassed themselves in back-to-back weeks. I know that it's not a popular opinion on this message board, but the 2020 Bills (on a team level) have been very disappointing to me. Sitting at 8-3 is nice. The improvement from Josh Allen has been great. But outside of the passing offense and the return game, this team has regressed from last season. My standard for a "successful" year has always been winning double-digit games, winning the AFC East and winning at least one playoff game. Falling short in any of those areas is just not OK with me. And when I see this team play (regardless of record), I see the division being way too close for comfort and I just don't see them beating anyone in the playoffs.

San Francisco was easily considered one of the best teams in the NFL going into the season, but were absolutely destroyed by injuries. They have also had a brutally tough schedule. They finally got back some key players last week, and they responded by beating the Rams. I think there is a growing expectation that the 49ers are much better than their record and can make a late-season/desperation push for the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Bills are a team that (unfortunately) screams overrated. They often struggle against mediocre/bad opponents, and only have 3 victories of more than one-score. They consistently blow first-half leads, looking sloppy and unfocused for long stretches of time. And in both primetime matchups this season, they looked totally unprepared and played absolutely terrible. My question is why you think the Bills should be strongly favored, when they can't soundly beat anyone (including the Jets) and always seem to tank in primetime?

The AFC playoff race is looking absolutely brutal this year. Buffalo may have an 8-3 record at the moment, but they cannot afford a slip-up to close out this season. There is a chance that someone ends 10-6 and doesn't make the postseason.

The 49ers running game is actually the weakest point on their team this year. They are averaging 4.1 yards per rush, which is tied with us for 20th in the NFL (and we all know the Bills are struggling to run the ball). It's a half-yard less than the Niners averaged last season, when they were Top 10 in rushing. And even with with Raheem Mostert back against the Rams last week, they only averaged 3.4 yards per rush. Bottom line, the Bills are playing against a team missing their starting Quarterback (Jimmy G), and one of their most explosive weapons (George Kittle). Overall, the 49ers are in the bottom half of the league in scoring. At the same time, the 49ers are Top 10-12 in virtually every defensive statistical category - even without Nick Bosa. The Bills have done a good job stopping the run over the last few weeks. They absolutely cannot go back to old habits and start struggling with it again. This is probably not a week for us to count on scoring 30+ points and throwing all over the field. This is probably a game where our offense is going to struggle a bit, and the final score may look like something from our 2019 schedule.

I feel like you are overrating Fuller by quite a bit. He wasn't even the #1 wide receiver on his own team until this year, after DeAndre Hopkins was traded. He has never played a full season in 5 years, and just got suspended for the remainder of 2020. I'm not necessarily a stat guy. But this is the first season Fuller has ever caught more than 50 balls. He's never had more than 1000 yards. He's never had double-digit touchdowns. As the top (and pretty much only target) on the Houston offense, his projected stats (before the suspension) would have looked remarkably similar to what John Brown put up on our pathetic offense in 2019. Fuller's per game stats over the first five years of his career are as follows... 3.9 catches per game, 58.6 yards per game, 0.45 touchdowns per game. So again, my question is... Why do we dump John Brown, who has already proven to be a key piece in THIS offense (not Houston's), so we can spend MORE money on a guy who has put up similar numbers through his career, can't stay healthy and is already on the NFL's substance abuse watch list?

Is there a reason we would be cutting John Brown? I don't see Will Fuller as a huge upgrade over what we already have. Every offense also reaches a point of oversaturation, where you just don't have enough balls to go around. We already have Diggs, Brown, Beasley and Davis. And you want to use our 1st Round Pick on yet another receiving weapon? AND then use a Day 2 Pick (for the third year in a row) on upgrading a run-game? I just don't see how we can possibly utilize all those pieces effectively. At this point, it really comes down to playcalling, blocking, the QB making the correct reads/throws and overall execution. In other words, we need to get our O-Line set. We need Brian Daboll to make good calls throughout the game. And we need continued improvement from Josh Allen. I'm not saying we never try to add offensive players or upgrade. But our resources in free agency and the draft need to go towards weak spots. We shouldn't be spending a #1 pick on a guy who may get 2-3 balls thrown his way each week. I also disagree completely with the idea that "nobody in the NFL really plays defense anymore." Even if scoring is higher than ever, offenses around the league are NOT scoring TDs on every single drive. Winning games comes down to having more points than your opponent. Look at the stats below and tell me where we have the most room for improvement... - Our defense is currently allowing 25.6 points per game (18th in the league). We are allowing 8.5 more points than the league's top unit. - Our offense is scoring 27.2 points per game (10th in the league). That is 4.5 points less than the league's top unit. Breaking things down further, our defense is: - 26th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.7) - 29th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed (16) - 23rd in the NFL in completion percentage allowed (66.8) - 20th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per attempt (7.4) - 19th in the NFL in interceptions (8)

At some point, this team needs to find an answer for the second-half collapses. Consider that it was less than 12 months ago that we boasted a 16-point lead over the Houston Texans in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. What could have been our first playoff victory in well over 20 years, was spoiled by a total mental breakdown on both sides of the ball. Missed tackles. Penalties. Sacks. Instead of learning from that comedy of errors, and improving in 2020, the Bills seem to have embraced the Texans game as our identity. A team that starts out of the gate strong, but struggles to close out opponents. Sorry if I can't get excited about 8-3. We had the same record last year, and even improved to 9-3 after our exciting Thanksgiving victory. It didn't stop us from ending the season 1-4, with the bitterly disappointing finish listed above. Eleven games in, I have seen ZERO improvement from this team as a whole. My last hope was that we could get some things right at the bye. But we didn't. Rest assured, the 2020 Bills are headed for the same kind of heartbreaking finish as 2019. The Dolphins continue to bite at our heels in the division, and I'm not 100% sure this thing ends with us a top the AFC East. If we somehow manage to scrape out 1st Place, I'm horrified at the prospect of a first-round exit courtesy of the Browns, Dolphins or Raiders.

Just looked it up, and John Elway won the MVP in 1987.

Wide Receivers never get serious consideration. I don't think Jerry Rice ever received the NFL MVP either.

Maybe I'll end up being wrong... but I feel like the Mitch Morse stuff is a bunch of drama without substance. Odds are high that our coaching staff just wanted to give him an extra week off, especially with the bye week upcoming. My guess is that Morse will be back at Center this week, with Feliciano back at guard. Hopefully we get Cody Ford back too.

This is a fair point, and one of the reasons I'm still on a "wait and see" approach with Beane's drafts. My concern is that eventually, the salary cap will force us to rely more heavily on these draft picks to contribute. - Cody Ford will likely need to replace either Jon Feliciano or Darryl Williams. - AJ Epenesa will likely need to replace either Jerry Hughes or Mario Addison - We may not be able to afford Matt Milano, and will need to draft his replacement

My belief is that a draft should yield at least 3 starting-caliber players. It's a little hard to judge Brandon Beane's drafts at this point, because many of the top guys he's picked have been inconsistent. - Tremaine Edmunds was a Pro-Bowler last year, but has been hurt and struggled badly this season. - Harrison Phillips looked promising as a rookie, then tore his ACL and doesn't appear to have fully recovered. - Ed Oliver has shown brief flashes, but has been mostly underwhelming at this point. - Cody Ford started looking better when we pushed him inside, but then he got hurt too. - AJ Epenesa has been at the back-end of the DE rotation his entire rookie season. - Zack Moss has had moments, but our running game has struggled all season. Until a good chunk of these guys become impact players for us, it's hard to say Beane is doing anything better than average.

Let's see how the Bills come out of the bye. This team was totally ravaged with injuries over the first 10 games, has faced possibly the toughest schedule in the NFL, and was still a Hail Mary prayer away from boasting an 8-2 record. I've often said the Bills don't look like they belong among the NFL's elite, so I do understand where you are coming from. But many of the AFC's top teams also look pretty mortal if you watch them every week. The Ravens were supposedly a Super Bowl contender a month ago. Now they are on the outside looking in for the playoffs.

Historically, the NFL has been a copycat league, where coordinators try to duplicate what is working for other teams. It is also a sport that evolves and changes over time. Right now, you are seeing the trend of athletic/mobile QBs taking hold over the NFL. Just like you said. To counter this, defenses are finding they need to change. They are no longer building defenses to stop Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. They are creating defenses to stop guys like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, etc. They will need to draft certain kinds of players to fit into this mold. But what happens a few years down the road, when the majority of defenses across the league have equipped themselves with the schemes/personnel capable to do this? That is when the guys who can't truly read a defense will falter, and the traditional pocket passers will likely start to re-emerge. That's why I think Lamar Jackson's luster is going to gradually fade (you already are seeing it). Although he occasionally puts up big passing stats, it's more because of how his running ability forces defenses to leave receivers open. He doesn't seem to have developed much in his ability to sit in the pocket, read a defense and go through progressions. Meanwhile, guys capable of doing it ALL like Josh Allen should be in great shape moving forward.

The verdict is, the AFC East is still most definitely up for grabs. At the end of the day, I still think the Bills have a slight advantage. We already beat Miami once. We have a 4-0 record in the division, while the Dolphins are 1-2 in the division. So at the moment, we have the edge in tiebreakers. I'll also say our remaining schedule is a little bit easier (Steelers/Broncos vs. Chiefs/Raiders). I guess we'll see what happens.

So you knew the Bills were going to allow a Hail Mary that works maybe 1-100 times, simply because we called a timeout? I have absolutely zero problem with us calling a timeout to get our defense prepared. The clock was already stopped at that point. The Cardinals had plenty of time to come up with a plan, regardless of the timeout. In fact, if you listen to the Arizona players and coaching staff, that play was not even designed to be a Hail Mary. They wanted to get the ball closer before taking an endzone shot. The primary read was a 20 yard sideline pass, with DeAndre Hopkins as a secondary option if that wasn't open. When Kyler Murray got flushed from the pocket, he decided to take the deep throw and it worked.

I've been breaking down our remaining schedules, and the AFC East definitely has the potential to come down to our Week 17 matchup. If the Dolphins beat the Broncos (who are likely to start Brett Rypien) this Sunday, they will be tied with the Bills with a 7-3 record. They finish up the third quarter of the season against the Jets and Bengals. It's hard to imagine them losing either of those. Meanwhile, we get the Chargers and banged-up 49ers, which should both be wins for us. That leaves both Miami and Buffalo likely sitting at 9-3 heading into the home-stretch. Week 14 is rough for both teams. We get the Steelers. They get the Chiefs. They get the Patriots in Week 15. We get the Patriots in Week 16. We both have one more AFC West game. They still need to play the Raiders. We still need to play the Broncos. Of course, there is always the possibility that Miami hits a slump (they are starting a rookie QB after all) and drops a game they shouldn't. If that happens, I think we clinch the AFC East before Week 17. But based on the way the season has played out so far, I certainly wouldn't count on that happening. The good news is that we currently hold the edge in tiebreakers. We already beat Miami once head-to-head, and we are 4-0 in the division. But we also cannot afford a slip-up.

It's definitely possible. I feel better about most of these games than I did even a month ago. My honest guess is that we go 4-2 down the stretch and finish 11-5. - The Chargers are 2-7 with a rookie quarterback. And we are coming off a bye. Can't see us losing this. - I always felt the 49ers were a bad matchup against us. But they have injuries all over the place. No Jimmy G. No George Kittle. Their running game is struggling. This has gone from one of the most difficult games on our schedule, to a game we absolutely should win. - The Steelers are easily the toughest team left on our schedule, and currently sit at 9-0. They are well-balanced with a lot of weapons and a strong defense. It's going to be a tough matchup. - The Broncos are 3-6. They will probably have Drew Lock back by this point, but I still think we outmatch them. - My hope is that we have cleared the "mental hurdle" regarding the Patriots, and the next game won't be so close. It will be interesting to see how the next few weeks play out. Will the Pats get back into playoff talks? Or will they be out of the picture by the time Week 16 rolls around? They play the Texans, Cardinals, Chargers, Rams and Dolphins. Not exactly an easy schedule. - The Dolphins upcoming slate is against the Broncos, Jets and Bengals. So it's easy to see them getting to 9 wins before the final quarter, and them having the same record as the Bills after Week 14.. Their last four games are against the Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders and then the Bills. Which is a little bit tougher than our last four. The good news is that we have the edge in tie-breakers (won head-to-head, 4-0 in division). So Miami needs a better record than us to win the AFC East.

1. Brandon Beane has already pretty much spent us to the salary cap. 2. Thanks to the virus cutting back fan attendance, the cap is expected to drop over the next few years (it has historically risen each year). 3. The Bills will likely be giving Josh Allen an extension, before 2021 is finished. Not to mention, our list of free agents is pretty extensive. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/buffalo-bills/ The list includes guys like Jon Feliciano, Daryl Williams, Andre Roberts, Isaiah McKenzie, Matt Milano, Josh Norman and Levi Wallace. Not to mention depth pieces like Trent Murphy, Tyler Kroft, Ty Nsekhe, Brian Winters, Matt Barkley, Dean Marlow, Justin Zimmer and Ike Boettger. Unfortunately, we are to the point where money is going to start dictating whether we can keep players or not. This is where Beane's drafting skills will need to start showing, so that we don't see a drop-off when the veterans leave for more $$. Personally, I would love to keep Jerry Hughes in a Bills uniform until he retires or shows regression. But one of the main reasons we drafted AJ Epenesa was to slide into that rotation to replace Hughes or Mario Addison. He may need to be ready for significant snaps next season.

This is the type of move bound to backfire. If Jackson feels the Patriots did this on purpose so they could offer less money, he may decide not to negotiate with them at all.

I highly doubt the Cardinals plan was for Murray to be "scrambling for his life" on that play... I'm sure Kingsbury figured the Bills would only rush 3-4 guys and play prevent, the blocking would hold-up, and then Murray could step up in the pocket and then hit someone near the sideline. They had plenty of time to make the endzone shot more manageable, instead of just throwing up a 45+ yard prayer. Strangely enough, if Mario Addison doesn't get immediate pressure... that's probably what happens, and Murray throws for the sideline instead of the endzone.

For everyone complaining that McDermott didn't put in some kind of Hail Mary defense... The Cardinals were actually planning to hit Andy Isabella for a 20-yard gain along the sideline, and wait until the next play for the endzone shot. https://clutchpoints.com/the-real-story-behind-cardinals-qb-kyler-murrays-miracle-hail-mary-to-deandre-hopkins/ As many have pointed out, if the Bills put in a bunch of tall guys and flooded the endzone in deep prevent, the Cardinals would have EASILY made a throw to get inside the 30 yard line... and then still had time for at least one endzone throw. Maybe two. Without the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, the Bills coaching staff surely figured the best plan was to keep their regular defense on the field and also guard against the sideline passes. The blitz from the slot was also smart, because it caused Kyler Murray to leave the pocket, use up an extra 3-4 seconds and throw up a prayer without setting his feet. Everything worked perfectly, and they had their THREE BEST defensive backs in position to make the play. The only problem was that DeAndre Hopkins made a miraculous catch.

The Cardinals had 11 seconds left, and the ball past midfield. That is enough time for at least 2 plays. Possibly 3. This was not a moment for the Bills to bring in a bunch of offensive guys, who have no idea how to cover or tackle. If the Bills brought in guys like Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox, it would have been much easier for the Cardinals to complete a couple sideline passes. Then instead of a Hail Mary, the Bills would have been trying to stop a completed pass from around the 25-30 yard line. I actually think the Bills played this one very smart. They brought an extra rusher from the slot, which ultimately helped flush Kyler Murray from the pocket and forced him to waste extra time running around. Mario Addison was actually close to reaching the QB. And on the back-end, we had three defenders in position to knock the ball away from DeAndre Hopkins. If that ball gets knocked away, the Cardinals have 1-2 seconds left at most. This play was not a coaching failure. It was a spectacular catch by one of the NFL's best players. What the Bills need to focus on over the next 2 weeks is all the OTHER plays in the second half, which led to them even being in a position to lose this game.

Didn't say that I've seen hundreds completed. I have been watching football for over 30 years you know. And for everyone that thinks we are cursed, this is not the first time someone has lost due to a Hail Mary.