mjt328

Before this season, this regime has drafted 14 players in the Top 3 rounds. 8 on offense. 7 on defense. If you count the pick traded for Stephon Diggs, that would be 9 picks on offense. The Bills have the top 3 positions on offense locked down. Quarterback, Left Tackle and Wide Receiver #1. Positions like Running Back, Interior O-Line and Tight End can usually be addressed later in the draft. Defenses are a little more evenly spread between positional importance.

Solid pick. Universally, he was considered a late 1st Round/early 2nd Round prospect. The general consensus had him as the #5 CB this year. The earliest I saw him ranked was the #18th ranked overall prospect (Pro Football Network). The latest I saw was #47 (ESPN). We got him right in that range, so it was decent value. Not a homerun. But nothing to complain about either. In terms of "passing" on better CB prospects, I personally really liked Andrew Booth. But as I mentioned in the draft threads earlier this week, lots of medical red flags have been popping up. I wasn't really surprised to see Booth drop last night, and I wasn't really surprised to see us pass on him. If his freefall continues Friday, you really have to wonder about the seriousness of his injury.

There are two ways to evaluate a draft. The first is looking at value, judging where a player was picked...versus where (mock drafts and other GMs) expected him to go. The second is how the player actually performs on the field, and whether he becomes a successful NFL pro. At this point, we can't judge anything but value. And by that standard, the Patriots easily had the biggest reach of the night. Cole Strange was almost universally regarded as a 3rd Round Pick. The earliest I saw him ranked was around the middle of the 2nd Round. Even if he turns out to be a good player, many will question whether he would have been available much later in the draft. Belichick's style as a GM hasn't changed over the years. His draft board is nothing like everyone else. He trades up. He trades down. He has specific scheme fits, and has no problem reaching against the perceived value around the rest of the league. Most of his defensive players and offensive line picks play well for the Patriots, but struggle outside of his system. He struggles to find difference-making talent at skill positions (particularly WR), which wasn't quite as noticeable when Tom Brady was the quarterback.

Jets had a fantastic draft last night. But everything still depends on the development of Zach Wilson. The Bills fielded some pretty strong rosters during the drought. But they were always dragged down by below average QB play, and they maxed-out between 6-9 during those seasons.

Sure. The mock drafts had us taking an Edge Rusher or Cornerback, since those were our biggest perceived needs. None of it was based on any kind of inside information. Nobody had a clue who the Bills were actually interested in, until suddenly a week or so before the draft. Then all these rumors started about Travis Etienne, and people started running with it. There is no evidence the Bills were ever really interested in Etienne at #30. There is also no evidence the rumors were fake. It's all just fans trying to read the tea-leaves, after the fact. We do know that teams purposely float false info into the media, hoping it can give them an advantage. I don't see any reason why the Bills wouldn't do something like that too. By making teams think you are interested in a player (Etienne), it could prompt someone to trade-up to get them. That pushes your true target (Rousseau) down a spot and gives you a better chance to getting them. If teams know who you are targeting, they may be prompted to try and trade-ahead of you. It's a great reason to hide your real intentions. The week of the draft, Etienne was the hottest name surrounding this team. I think a lot of people on this board will remember that well. Nobody knows if Beane would be willing to draft a Running Back in Round 1... until he actually does it. Don't forget he did come from an organization (Carolina) that drafted Christian McCaffrey, Johnathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in the 1st Round during his tenure with the team. He wasn't the primary decision-maker, but it's definitely food for thought.

You may be correct. But in 4-5 years of following this regime, I can't think of ANY verifiable draft information that has slipped from One Bills Drive. Same thing with our targets in free agency. History shows that rumors surrounding this team never come true. Which makes you wonder if "leaks" are done on purpose, to create a smokescreen for our true intentions. Last year, all the pre-draft rumors were about Travis Etienne. He was obviously taken before our pick, so we will never know for sure. But I don't recall a single article or tweet before the draft suggesting we had heavy interest in Greg Rousseau. But obviously we did. Two years ago, Defensive Tackle was the most obvious need on the team. Based on draft position and value, Ed Oliver should have been given to us in 99% of mocks. But the week of the draft, we kept getting rumblings about the Bills wanting Quinnen Williams and trying to trade-up for him. Nothing about Oliver. Even in 2018... when EVERYBODY knew we were trading up for a Quarterback... nobody could put their finger on which one we wanted. To this day, people speculate if Josh Allen was the #1 quarterback on our board. The trade-up for Tremaine Edmunds came totally out of nowhere just a few picks later.

If you are looking to match exact team/exact player, mock drafts are usually way off. If you are looking to get a rough idea which players are going to be available, they are actually pretty helpful. Last year, I was targeting an edge rusher and kept ending up with a choice of Greg Roussea, Jayson Oweh and Azeez Ojulari. Kwity Paye was always gone. Jaelen Phillips was gone about 75% of the time. Low and behold, those three were exactly who were available. I've been doing mock drafts for the last 1-2 months. Andrew Booth only started popping up available recently, after the injury concerns about his hernia started popping up. Once that happened, Trent McDuffie started going in the Top 15-20 instead.

If I had to make a prediction, I think the Bills go O-Line (Guard) or Safety in Round 1. Almost everyone wants a cornerback on the first day. Me too. But unfortunately, the best value is most likely going to be somewhere else when we pick. The two top guys in this draft (Derek Stingley and Sauce Gardner) will be long gone by Pick #25. I think both guys are likely Top 10, and trading up more than a couple picks is going to be way too expensive. No way Beane flips a future 1st Rounder just to move up for a CB. I wouldn't be surprised if Trent McDuffie also goes Top 15, which would also put him out of reach. Andrew Booth Jr. depends on the medical red flags. If other teams fail him for the hernia issues, it's very likely we will too. After those top four guys, the value drops and we are looking mostly at Day 2 guys (Kaiir Elam, Roger McCreary and Kyler Gordon). Maybe we reach for position, but that doesn't seem like Beane either. I keep hearing about Breece Hall being connected to the Bills. That should be the main reason to reject that idea, because this organization does not let information like that slip. It's a smokescreen, just like Travis Etienne last year. There aren't any running backs worth a 1st Round Pick this year. Same thing with tight ends. The top wide receivers (Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Drake London, Chris Olave) are probably gone at #25. I can't see Treylon Burks being the style of WR we are looking for. We don't really need another Edge Rusher, Defensive Tackle or Offensive Tackle. The top linebackers (Devin Lloyd, Nakobi Dean) are both outside guys. So even if we are looking for a replacement for Tremaine Edmunds, neither of those guys really fit the mold. I've done many mock drafts, which are surprisingly accurate when it comes to predicting the positions/players that will be available. The value picks that keep coming up (which I could see being realistic for us) are guards Kenyon Green or Zion Johnson, or safety Daxton Hill. All of those guys are considered solid 1st Round prospects, and all would fit future needs. Don't forget that Beane said "protecting Josh Allen" was his top priority this offseason. He only attacked the O-Line with one-year deals, which means that position will be a need again next year. On the safety side, I think we are (unfortunately) watching Jordan Poyer's last season in Buffalo. We can't pay everyone, and I think he's the odd man out.

Depends on the player and position. We don't have many open spots in the starting lineup (if any), and it would be surprising for a rookie to get significant playing time in Year One. A few exceptions may be at Running Back, Guard and Cornerback. Don't forget that last season, the Bills were not expecting ANY rookies to start. But Greg Rousseau looked way too good in training camp to keep on the bench, so they slid him ahead of Mario Addison. But even then, Rousseau was in a heavy rotation and hardly got on the field for 3rd Down passing plays. Spencer Brown was also a surprise start, due to Darryl Williams regressing and being pushed inside. Brandon Beane likes to draft guys with lots of physical tools and higher potential. This usually means it takes 2-3 years before that player starts really producing on the field. Great examples last year were with both Ed Oliver and Dawson Knox, who both had breakout seasons. Top candidates for this year would be Gabe Davis, Dane Jackson and A.J. Epenesa.

To me, it probably depends on the veteran and the rookie. I agree that Joe Haden, Kyle Fuller, etc. aren't what they used to be. But exactly how much have they fallen off? These are vets with plenty of starting experience in the NFL. Can their production truly be replaced by a rookie on Day 1? We probably aren't looking at adding Sauce Gardner or Derek Stingley. Probably not Trent McDuffie or Andrew Booth Jr. either. What if the draft doesn't fall our way, and the best/most pro-ready CBs aren't available when we pick? What if we can't get a corner until Round 3 or 4? Will that guy be ready to play? I trust Beane. But he's not infallible. Hopefully he's got a plan. Because that position looks like a Week 1 (and probably longer) liability to everyone outside the organization. A one-year band-aid is enough. We realistically just need someone that won't get picked-on and destroyed while Tre White is rehabbing. Most of us are hoping to sign someone before Draft Day, because it drastically opens up our board in Rounds 1-2. It still could happen. Or it could be like you say, and be a training camp/preseason add. My biggest concern is that we drop 1-2 winnable games early in the season, due to the hole at corner. And that ultimately costs us homefield (like it did last season). Homefield could be absolutely huge this season in the AFC.

Yep. That's why Beane needs to sign a veteran cornerback with starting experience in the NFL. He doesn't necessarily need to be Stephon Gilmore quality. But at least someone who won't be a massive liability until White gets back. It's a huge mistake to go into the draft absolutely needing any position... and then counting on that player to be ready to start Week 1. Get one more decent CB, and we can do whatever we want in the draft.

Not exactly the same. Dane Jackson started the last 8 games of the season last year (including the playoffs) and was not a liability. He's going into his third season, and I'm getting the impression the Bills are very confident in his ability to hold-down one side of the field. The only reason Cornerback is such a massive priority is the injury to Tre White, and the uncertainty of when he gets back. As of right now, we are looking at either Cam Lewis, Nick McCloud or Olaijah Griffin starting on Week 1. And they would remain in the lineup until White is ready to come back. Even if he only misses 2-3 games, we absolutely NEED someone capable to fill that spot. As we witnessed last season... EVERY GAME COUNTS. We failed to show-up Week 1 against the Steelers. We failed to convert a 4th-1 against the Titans. We laid an egg against the Jaguars. If even ONE of those games had gone the other way, the Bills would have gotten homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The AFC is going to be a bloodbath. We can't afford to just take our chances with an unknown commodity on the outside.

What was wrong with last year's draft? I thought it was a great example of why you wait, and don't force things. We went in with a strong/deep roster. No rookies were expected to crack the starting lineup. Yet Greg Rousseau was good enough to force himself above Mario Addison on Week 1. And Spencer Brown was starting by mid-season. Don't forget. Fans were clamoring for us to trade-up last year too. People wanted Kwity Paye, because he was the most pro-ready edge rusher. Rousseau outperformed in Year 1, and has a bigger ceiling.

This sounds about right. Tre White and Micah Hyde are pretty much guaranteed to be on this team until after the 2023 season, barring a trade. Von Miller until after the 2024 season. Their contracts don't make cutting them realistic before that point. I think the Bills would like to extend Jordan Poyer another 2-3 years, and would be willing to get it done this offseason. But they aren't going to pull the trigger early, unless they can get a discount. The news about Drew Rosenhaus makes that very unlikely. I wouldn't be surprised if he's seeking to be the highest paid safety in the league, after being named a 1st-Team All-Pro. No way that Brandon Beane agrees to that. Ultimately, I think Poyer plays out 2022 and then hits free agency in 2023. Ed Oliver is getting the 5th Year Option, without a question. So I think the Bills will watch the progress of him and Tremaine Edmunds this year. It's probably a long-shot for us to keep both guys. From what I saw last year, I think Oliver takes a step and gets an extension. Edmunds has probably peaked, and is much more replaceable.

Screw Tom Brady. That is all. 😁 Like I said, it's possible that Watson takes a step back after missing a season. But lots of guys miss entire seasons due to serious injuries, and still come back fine.

In my opinion, the best QBs in the NFL are: - Aaron Rodgers - Patrick Mahomes - Josh Allen - Deshaun Watson Without being a Bills homer, it's really hard to find separation between those guys. You really could rank them in any order, and it would be tough to find a legitimate argument why they were wrong. Personally I give Rodgers the edge because of how long he's been elite. He's been at the top for almost 15 years and won numerous MVP awards. But does that mean he's better in 2022? Not necessarily. People forget how good Watson was between 2018-2020... on possibly the most dysfunctional team in the NFL. It's fair to question if the year off will change that. But he's just as likely to pickup where he left off.

Twitter. Rachel Bush is very active, and isn't shy about stating her opinions. Now she didn't come straight-out and say they were upset. But if you read between the lines... it was pretty obvious. First there was a comment Bush made immediately after the Von Miller signing, which (paraphrasing) suggested we needed to pay the current Bills players first, because they were the #1 Defense in the league. Especially the guy who was a 1st Team All-Pro. That was probably the first red flag that Poyer wasn't happy, especially because other Bills players were celebrating and getting excited about their new teammate. Then after the Stephon Diggs contract was announced, she retweeted someone's comment questioning why Diggs was prioritized with 2-years left on his deal, but Poyer was still unsigned with 1-year left. Then only hours later, you have Poyer loudly announcing his change in agents.

Ed Oliver is pretty much a lock. This regime clearly prioritizes the D-Line over other positions on the defense. Right now, he's pretty underrated across the league. But he is very likely on the verge of a break-out season (with extra blocking attention on Von Miller). Jordan Poyer was probably next on Beane's list for an extension. Now I'm not so sure. Over the last few weeks, Poyer's wife (Rachel Bush) has made their feelings very public. They were not happy with Miller getting big bucks or Stephon Diggs getting prioritized on a new contract. That may not go-over well with our front office. Agent Drew Rosenhaus also has a reputation for trying to squeeze teams for every last cent, which may price him out of our services. Dawson Knox will probably depend on market value. His stats are clearly limited by this offense, since we have so many other weapons. Will another team be willing to offer him a Top 5 contract for his position? Tremaine Edmunds is probably the odd-man out. It's a combination of timing (when he becomes a free agent), and the high chance that his market FAR outpaces his actual value. You can't re-sign everyone, and I could see Beane taking a chance with a mid-round linebacker (future replacement) as early as this draft. Devon Singletary is an average running back, and very replaceable. This team does not value the position very high either. I think we draft someone on Day 2 this year, and don't see him getting a second contract.

Not sure where you came up with the 85% stat. I looked at the current CB depth charts around the league, and that number should be around 25-30% (depending on if you count nickel guys as starters). Many teams still find starting corners into the 2nd, and sometimes the 3rd Round, depending on how deep a particular class is. It's definitely pretty sketchy after that point. I'll agree on the mock draft point. I've also gone through multiple, and have NEVER seen the consensus Top 4 guys (Derek Stingley, Sauce Gardner, Andrew Booth, Trent McDuffie) make it to our pick. Most of the time we are looking at Kair Elam/Roger McDuffie or going with another position. And most of the time, the BPA at #25 is a wide receiver. Until April 28 comes and goes, I truly believe that Brandon Beane will sign a veteran CB who can give us the ability to go BPA. Reaching for need is always a mistake. Moving away from the BPA strategy is one of the reasons most teams only contend for 2-3 seasons before falling off.

This feels like just another "Tremaine Edmunds sucks" thread. We get it. Lots of fans don't like having a Middle Linebacker who isn't a physical run-stuffer.

I like the idea of moving up.... but not the idea of trading away a 2023 first round pick. We didn't even give away two 1st rounders in moving up for Josh Allen. In my opinion, our best bet is to add another veteran cornerback with starting experience. Some have floated the idea of trading for James Bradberry. That would work. There are rumors we are interested in signing Stephon Gilmore. That would work. If we can go into April 28 without any glaring holes on our roster, we can pretty much sit back and let talent fall to us at #25. Looking at the numbers, a very good cornerback, wide receiver or guard is certain to drop. But if we are pigeon-holed into one position, we could be forced into a trade-up or missing out.

There is no way doctors will know this early whether Tre White will be ready. So if we don't do something before April 28... either signing a veteran or trading for a proven starter... I think Brandon Beane is going to be forced into reaching in the Draft. Maybe not in the 1st Round, but certainly by the end of Day 2. There are rumors of us facing off against the Rams on Opening Night. No way he is comfortable going against the Super Bowl champs with Dane Jackson and Cam Lewis as our starters. Don't forget that Beane admitted they were seriously considering a Cornerback early in the 2021 draft, but the value wasn't quite there. That was with Levi Wallace still on the roster, and White perfectly healthy. With our style of defense, I don't think Beane values cornerbacks quite as highly as some teams (he would prefer to invest money into the pass rush). But the situation has gotten pretty dire.

You aren't wrong. But there is a legitimate reason people feel this way... When it comes to our O-Line, Josh Allen makes up for A LOT of their struggles. Some of his best plays are those when the blocker totally whiffs, and he is chased out of the pocket. For the average fan, who really cares if our O-Line is allowing "pressures" if it doesn't result in sacks and we are still scoring 35+ points? That's why people who do in-depth All-22 studies of our O-Line generally have a lower opinion of this group than the general fanbase. I also think people would feel much better about Cornerback, if they knew confidently when Tre White would return. The problem isn't Dane Jackson. He did a really good job as the #2 last season when White went down. The problem is lining up Jackson on Week 1 with someone like Cam Lewis (or a rookie). And of course, the last image of our season is the secondary (without White) getting absolutely torched on multiple scoring drives.

Every draft, the experts throw around the concept of "high and low floor/ceiling" prospects. The idea is that some players come into the NFL more ready to play, but they don't really have the physical traits to become elite. Other players come in raw, and are bigger projects. They may struggle more at first. But if everything clicks in their development, they can eventually become among the league's best at their position. Back in 2018, it was Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen who were considered the most pro-ready by experts. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were the big projects, with tons of physical skill and raw as passers. Everyone recalls that Mayfield had the best rookie year (by far) and appeared to be a star in the making. Jackson looked great as a runner. Darnold flashed, despite being on the Jets. Only the people in Buffalo noticed some potential in Allen, while Rosen was a total flop. Fast-forward four seasons.... Allen is a Top 3 quarterback. Jackson is Top 10. Mayfield just got replaced. Darnold is already a backup. Rosen is almost out of the league. In my opinion, Mac Jones was the 2021 version of Baker Mayfield. He came into the NFL with good mechanics, and a solid mental grasp of the pro-passing game. He came from the biggest program in the country, and immediately went to play under Bill Belichick. He was inserted into an offense that put most of the pressure on the running game, and rarely asked him to win games by himself. Over the next few seasons, the pressure will be on Jones to prove himself as more than "middle of the pack." Defenses will realize that Jones doesn't have the arm-strength to make big throws, or the athletic skill to escape the pocket. They will focus on taking away the run game, and make Jones try to beat them. That's when the Patriots fans realize there is only one Tom Brady. And he doesn't play in Boston anymore.

Potentially huge impact for the Bills... both positive and negative. 1. Although this is probably the smart move (long-term) for the Chiefs, the loss of Tyreek Hill would be huge for their offense. With them being our biggest roadblock the last two seasons, I wouldn't mind seeing them get knocked down a peg. 2. Hard to say what kind of impact Hill brings to the AFC East. Miami has a pretty good team overall. But if he picks the Dolphins, Tua has a pretty weak arm and will struggle taking advantage downfield. Hill's talents fit better with Zach Wilson. But then he ends up on a terrible team. 3. The contract situation at Wide Receiver is getting pretty ugly. Stephon Diggs is under contract for 2 more seasons, but will almost certainly be pressing for a new deal before then.