mjt328

I guess all the cap estimates for Philadelphia didn't include the Carson Wentz trade. So now the Eagles can play the waiting game, and hope one of the teams up their offer. It's probably a smart play, because the TE cupboard is pretty bare on the free agent market. And outside of Kyle Pitts (who is a Top 10 pick), this draft class isn't very good either.

Hilarious that anyone believes we have a QB controversy on our hands. Just wow. Mitch Trubisky should be an upgrade on Matt Barkley, and gives Jake Fromm another year of development before he hopefully steps into the backup role. Last year, he wasn't even able to practice with the team. This also has the potential to become a nice compensation pick next season. Hopefully Josh Allen doesn't get hurt, but at the least Trubisky can put in a good performance in garbage time and when we sit our starters Week 17-18. He could end up getting another starting spot down the line.

I mentioned the Saints in another thread. They won the Super Bowl back in 2009, right when the team started to hit its stride. For the most part, they were able to keep the core of that team together for about 4 years. Then the big contracts started catching up, and the salary cap started becoming a bigger issue. It started with them letting defensive talent go. But then started trickling over to the O-Line and receivers. In 2014, 2015 and 2016, the Saints were NOT a very good team. They went 7-9 every season in that stretch, and Drew Brees was pretty much carrying the roster by himself. Bills fans only remember them being able to steal Jairus Byrd from us, despite being tight on the cap. They don't remember the other players the Saints had to let go of, or that Byrd was released at the mid-point of his deal. Don't let yourself be fooled. The stupid contracts that New Orleans handed out in 2010-2014 (like Byrd) were the ones that killed their roster. The Saints eventually dug themselves out of cap hell by doing things like trading Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks for draft picks, instead of paying them the big bucks. They also did a fantastic job of drafting. The 2016 class was good. And the 2017 class was one of the best draft classes I've seen in the last decade. Those picks were the foundation for them rebuilding the roster, and putting together 4 more strong seasons before Drew Brees ended up retiring. Now the cap has caught up again, and they are being forced to start over. Was it worth it? Who knows. If the Saints had been wiser with their cap dollars, maybe they wouldn't have had that 3-year drop-off from 2014-2016.

The Patriots are not really bad at drafting. They aren't as good as their reputation, but Belichick did a solid job of keeping a good enough team around Tom Brady. He almost never splurged on free agents, which is the point I was trying to make. Is Seattle a serious Super Bowl contender though? I'm not so sure. Russell Wilson is frustrated and complaining that the Seahawks can't give him a decent O-Line, and the defense is trash. The best players on the team outside of Wilson (Jamal Adams and DK Metcalf) are still on rookie contracts. They have no space this season to add players, which is exactly my point. They are in the prime of Wilson's career and can't upgrade the roster around him enough to give them a serious shot at the Super Bowl. Have you seen the list of players the Saints were forced to release? They completely gutted the team to get back to zero. New Orleans has a reputation of being constantly good, but after their 2009 Super Bowl year, they had multiple 7-9 seasons where they missed the playoffs. Look at the 2012, 2014-2016 seasons. They totally wasted Drew Brees in his prime for those years. Why? Because they had to reconstruct the roster to makeup for their cap problems. Byrd's stupid contract was a major reason for that. They were ultimately able to rebuild (mostly through the draft), then make one more 4-year run before Brees called it quits. Was it worth it? They never won another Super Bowl. Sure they could. And maybe they still will. But there are long-term consequences. And maybe Beane believes throwing $10 million per year at Carl Lawson isn't worth the player(s) it will cost him 2-4 years down the line.

It is true the salary cap can often be manipulated, and room can be made to fit certain contracts. GMs do this by either asking a player for a pay cut, or restructuring and pushing the cap-hit into later years. The problem is, eventually players stop being willing to take pay cuts. They want the money they earned. And eventually players reach an age where you simply can't push their cap hits into later seasons. That's when you are forced to start releasing/cutting players, and the quality of your team takes a serious hit. //////// Some fans seem upset that Kansas City is able to be a player in Free Agency this year. But let's take a closer look. The Chiefs were forced to cut both starting tackles (Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz). They have a half dozen free agents who started double-digit games last year, who they cannot re-sign (Sammy Watkins, DeMarcus Robinson, Austin Reiter, Bashaud Breeland, Damien Wilson, Tanoh Kpassagnon). They have also made contract restructures for Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. Yes, they were able to get Joe Thuney in free agency. But his cap hit will only be $5 million this year. Next year's it will be over $17 million. Next year, the cap hit on Mahomes goes from $7 million to $35 million (and his current contract already goes to age 37, so restructuring is going to be difficult). Jones' hit goes from $8 million to $29 million. Kelce's hit goes from $5 million to $9 million. This offseason, the Chiefs are going to be forced to replace some solid/fringe starters and depth across the roster. They still have key pieces, so they should still be among the Super Bowl favorites. But by 2022, they will be forced to make some hard decisions about guys like Tyreek Hill and Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathiu. They won't be able to keep everybody. And that's when the teams nipping at their heels right now (like the Bills) will have a perfect opportunity to overtake them. ////////// Bottom line. You can be a team that pushes all of its chips into the middle of the table (like the Bucs, Chiefs or Rams), and mortgages future years to win a Super Bowl now. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that strategy, and sometimes it works. But eventually the bill comes due, and you will be forced to rebuild the roster from the ground-up. A good example is Seattle, where they are currently struggling to rebuild a contender around Russell Wilson. My feeling is that Brandon Beane wants a team like the Patriots, Steelers or Packers. A team that can be a consistent winner and Super Bowl contender for the duration of their franchise QB's career. These teams usually build through the draft, and then use free agent dollars to retain their own. Or they wait for the bargains to come around after the first wave of free agency is over.

Agree the Bills haven't done anything to improve yet. But I wouldn't exactly consider the Patriots adds "big time" talent. Their best signings were the Tight Ends. Would you even put Jonnu Smith or Hunter Henry in the league's Top 10 tight ends? I'm not sure I would. Nelson Agholar would be our #5 wide receiver.

At this point, the roster is about the same as last year's 13-3 team. - We've basically swapped John Brown for Emmanuel Sanders, and gotten a new punter. - We lost our return guy in Andre Roberts, but Star Lotulelei is coming back after opting out in 2020. - The only starter we may lose is Levi Wallace, and he has been the weakest link on the defense for the last 2-3 seasons. The rest of our free agents are backups who can be replaced with draft picks or on the cheap. It's possible we bring back Wallace. Even if we do that, I think Cornerback is the biggest need on the roster. After that, I would really like to see an upgrade at Tight End, Defensive End, and then possibly Guard and Running Back. It would be nice to get some depth at Defensive Tackle and Linebacker. Bottom line, we are in really good shape.

Some teams value speed more than others. The Chiefs are certainly one of those teams. The Bills seem to value flexibility instead. They want guys who can lineup outside or in the slot, run a slant or a go route, and can block well in the run game. Brown obviously had the deep speed, and could run nice comeback/timing routes. But he wasn't physical and didn't offer as much in the middle of the field. I also question how much of an upgrade (if any) we get from Emmanuel Sanders. But maybe the Bills just see him as a better scheme fit for what they are trying to do? Not really. Between the contract they gave Emmanuel Sanders ($6.5) and the dead money leftover from Brown ($1.6), they maybe saved $1 million. If Brown was playing hardball for money and didn't want a paycut, he wouldn't have settled for such a small offer from the Raiders. The Bills clearly had no interest in bringing him back.

Some of the Bills fans on this board must have PTSD. No doubt that by adding these free agents (most notably Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith), and by getting back some opt outs (most notably Dont'a Hightower, Patrick Chung and Marcus Cannon) the Patriots should absolutely be a BETTER team in 2021. But the difference between the Bills and Patriots last year was a whopping SIX GAMES. We were 13-3. They were 7-9. Our schedules were almost identical. The only exception was that we played the Steelers and Titans, while they played the Ravens and Texans. So technically, Buffalo also had a tougher group of opponents. One of the big questions going into 2020 was whether Tom Brady or Bill Belichick was more responsible for New England's success. I think this question got a pretty definitive answer when the Patriots finished 3rd in the AFC East and Tampa Bay hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Belichick will always be considered a great coach, and one of the best ever. But he still has a below-average QB with a below-average (even with these additions) offense. They should compete for a Wild Card spot. But I don't see them as a legitimate threat for the AFC East. Also... I notice that Belichick is often praised for his 2008 season, finishing 11-5 with Brady injured. What people forget is that New England's roster went 16-0 the year before. So the loss of Brady accounted for a five game swing between seasons. And the AFC East was absolutely dreadful at that time.

Clearly John Brown's release was about more than just money. His comments after getting cut last week suggested that Buffalo never asked him to take a paycut. And him settling for only $3.75 million guaranteed on the 3rd day of free agency pretty much confirms that. Personally I liked Brown, and don't really see a 33-year-old Emmanuel Sanders as much of an upgrade. Maybe there is more to his injury than fans know about. Maybe the team wants to move away from pure speed guys, and prefers to have more physical guys.

Not sure the updated numbers, but Spotrac still has the Eagles $4.8 million over the salary cap. The deadline to get under is 4pm EST. Zach Ertz has a cap hit of $12.4 million. It's pretty much certain that he will not be on their roster by the end of the day. I'm sure lots of teams would be willing to offer a mid/late round pick for Ertz as a player. The issue is also taking on that cap hit. Nobody wants to make a trade for his contract. Which means if the Eagles want any kind of compensation, they need to let other teams negotiate with him on a new deal first.

Hopefully he still has some gas left in the tank, because this was a surprisingly high contract (more than a $6 million cap hit). I figured they were going to eventually land John Brown's replacement for about half that cost, once the market started drying up. This signing seems to be more about the Bills really wanting Emmanuel Sanders, rather than landing a bargain deal. Sanders did always catch my eye back when he was playing for the Steelers, and later the Broncos. But since he got traded to the 49ers and then signed with the Saints, I haven't noticed him making much impact.

Would be an upgrade at cornerback, and a replacement for Andre Roberts.

Which means there will likely be even more veterans released over the next 24 hours. I've noticed some panic on this board, as many of the top free agents get snatched up for big bucks. But you will also notice that cap space is also quickly dwindling away... By Thursday or Friday, I would expect the Bills to start getting involved and landing some bargains.

Look around the NFL every March when free agency opens. This is what non-contenders do with their excess cap space. Overpay to fill holes. New England is coming off a 7-9 season, and they don't have a franchise quarterback. It's not exactly the most attractive destination for free agents, unless they are looking for the highest bidder. They have basically switched places with us. The Bills will be a destination for vets willing to take a paycut to contend for a Super Bowl.

First of all, it's way too early to make any assumptions about how this offseason is going to play out. Several cap experts in the media have shown that with a few restructures (like many other teams are doing), the Bills can still clear another $20-30 million. They have plenty of room to sign additional talent. History has always shown the best bargains in free agency come from either re-signing your own guys, or by waiting until the first wave is over. Second, the Bills were a Hail-Murray away from finishing 14-2 last year, and one game away from the Super Bowl. It's not a fluke. They are close. Clearly the Kansas City Chiefs (who we were 0-2 against) are the next big hurdle, and we need to make some improvements to get there. But every season is going be a mix of trying to improve your weak areas, while trying to sustain current success. You need to know where to make the additions, and where to make the subtractions. It's not simply one or the other. Third... assuming the Chiefs are the next big hurdle... it's important to recognize that Buffalo's offense was arguably better/equal to the Chiefs last year. We scored more points than Kansas City, finishing #2 in scoring behind the Packers. We were also only 20 yards per game behind Kansas City (also finishing #2). So although I agree that steps should be taken to improve the run game, we need to be very careful not to upset what is working. And overhauling the O-Line is a recipe for possibly taking a step back in pass blocking... and ruining what worked well in 2020. I think a better strategy is to focus this offseason on improving the defense, which finished right in the middle of the NFL. We were 16th in scoring defense and 14th in yards allowed per game. We struggled to stop the run. Our pass rush was inconsistent. And we had no answers for the Chiefs receiving weapons in either game we played them. In my opinion, keeping continuity along the O-Line is a great strategy by Brandon Beane. He can still aim for upgrades on our running backs or at left guard. But at least now he's not trying to fill holes left by guys actually playing well.

The Bills offense finished #2 in the NFL in scoring last year, with 31.3 points per game (Green Bay was first with 31.8 points). Yes. Our O-Line struggled to open holes in the run game. But they were also phenomenal in pass blocking, and giving Josh Allen plenty of time in the pocket. In my mind, this goes back to the day we hired Rex Ryan. At the time, our defense was among the best in the league. In an effort to make our Top 5 unit into the #1 defense in the entire league, Ryan made a bunch of unnecessary scheme changes. And ultimately, he ended up destroying what was already working. I understand the desire to be great at both running AND passing. But is it really worth blowing up the #2 offense in the NFL, just so we can HOPE to improve our run blocking? I've got no problem if Brandon Beane wants to add more offensive linemen or running backs in hopes of improving the rushing attack (we still have the rest of free agency and the draft). At the very least, our blocking should be as good as last season. And that's a good thing.

There are some people on this board who clearly don't understand how NFL contracts work. The Saints aren't avoiding the salary cap, or doing anything brilliant/genius that other teams can't do. Taysom Hill's contract is basically a 1 year deal, with the cap hit spread over two seasons. About $128 million in his contract is Monopoly money. It's fake and he will never see it. If the Saints decide to keep him around past 2021, the current contract will be voided and renegotiated. And if he's not brought back, they will have $8 million in dead money. So far this offseason, the Saints have been forced to release about 8 contracted players (mostly starters) from their roster. That isn't counting the retirement of Drew Brees, or the multiple free agents they will be unable to re-sign. They were also forced to restructure the contracts of another half-dozen players on the team, and needed to franchise tag Marcus Williams to keep him on the roster (instead of giving him a long-term deal). All of this was done just to keep them from having a negative cap number when the league year starts Wednesday afternoon. They still have no money to sign new players, and have pretty much exhausted their ability to restructure existing contracts. At the end of the day, the Saints were able to extend their window as a contender until Brees finally called it quits. They did this through a mix of excellent drafting and pushing back the cap hits on contracts. No doubt it was a very smart strategy by their front office. But the idea it was never going to catch up with them is nonsense.

Not true. It does catch up eventually. Even without the cap decrease, the Saints would have been in deep trouble this offseason. Just like how the Rams keep trading away future draft picks, so they can take advantage of today's Super Bowl window. Right now the team looks stacked. But as the years go along, they will basically be depending on late rounders and UDFAs to restock the aging talent.

The vast majority of NFL contracts are backloaded with non-guaranteed money. That way players can boast about landing a 5 year $50 million contract... when in reality they have signed a 3 year $22 million contract, with a team option to cut them before Year 4 without much penalty. Most restructures are basically pushing guaranteed dollars to the back-end of the contract (which was originally setup as bloated fluff). In other words, the team reduces its ability to cut the player. The player gets more guaranteed money. The cap hit for the present year is decreased. As time goes along, the ability to push money down the road becomes more and more difficult. The most obvious example right now is the Saints. They have used these techniques for years. They have also remained competitive for a long-time, mostly because of excellent drafting. But now they are being forced to cut virtually the entire team. The Eagle and Rams are also very guilty of this. Brandon Beane is exceptional at getting free agents with basically 1-2 year contracts (see John Brown, Quinton Jefferson, Mario Addison, etc.), allowing him a ton of flexibility to play around with the cap without these major restructures. Maybe he will change that strategy as our Super Bowl window begins to close, but right now it's a great plan for remaining competitive for many years down the road.

With the salary cap drop (and mass of veterans getting cut around the league), I wonder if the upcoming market for Free Agents is going to be WAY LESS than anybody expected. Legal tampering or not, you have to believe agents are already sending out feelers and getting an idea of what GMs are thinking. We keep hearing that Matt Milano and now Darryl Williams took heavy discounts to stay in Buffalo. We also heard Mitch Morse did the team a huge favor by taking a paycut. But maybe these guys weren't going to get much more on the open market anyway.

Many of their contracts were heavily backloaded. The idea was to keep "kicking the can down the road" and take advantage of their rapidly closing Super Bowl window with Drew Brees. Eventually, that bill was always going to come due. What nobody expected was a $15 million salary cap DROP in 2021. In previous years, the cap has usually risen around $10 million per year. Most NFL general managers figured the 2021 cap would be about $208 million, instead of the $183 they ended up getting. That's a whopping difference of $25 million less. Lots of teams are in deep cap trouble this year, and being forced to cut veteran talent. The Saints basically got hit from both ends in the same offseason. The reduced cap AND the backloaded contracts finally catching up. Considering the regression and possible retirement of Brees, it probably worked out just as well.

There isn't going to be anyone left on the Saints roster by next Wednesday.

This is exactly the situation New England finds itself in right now. There are a few ways to attract free agents: - One is to overpay and be the top-bidder, which the Patriots pretty much refuse to do. - Another is to be a serious Super Bowl contender, which the Patriots no longer are. - Still another is to have a coach that guys enjoy playing for, which Belichick clearly is not. No doubt that Belichick is a great coach. But he's also an @$$, who pushes his players very hard and treats them like expendable chess pieces. The organization itself has a reputation for not paying to keep talent, and instead building up compensatory picks and using the draft to restock the pieces around Tom Brady. That system was great at keeping the winning ball rolling, and helping them constantly get salary cap bargains on veterans desperate for a ring. Now that Brady is gone, it's going to be very hard to get that ball rolling again.

I love John Brown, and I absolutely hate seeing him go. But the more you think about it, this was really a no-brainer decision for the Bills... 1. Prior to Wednesday's moves, the Bills had something around $2-3 million available in salary cap space. Even after restructuring Jerry Hughes and Mitch Morse. That's not even room for one decent starter. 2. Our upcoming free agents include starters Matt Milano, Jon Feliciano, Darryl Williams and Levi Wallace, along with key contributors like Matt Barkley, Andre Roberts, Isaiah McKenzie, Ike Boettger, Ty Nsehke and Josh Norman. 3. Without making some restructures/cuts, this means the Bills had absolutely no cap room to re-sign OR replace ANY of these guys. We fell just short of making the Super Bowl last year. We need to get better, not worse. 4. Wide receiver is easily our deepest position. Gabe Davis was our #4 last year, and appears ready to step into the starting lineup. This made Brown one of the most expendable starters on the roster. Also - looking at our current cap situation - I see no way that Mario Addison makes it past the next couple weeks without either taking a pay cut or getting released. The Bills would save around $8 million by letting him go right now. Obviously Edge Rusher is not our best position. My guess is that Brandon Beane wants to see how Free Agency shakes out before making a move with Addison. But I can't see anyway it doesn't happen, unless we totally strike out on every pass rushing target in F/A.