mjt328

I've done similar research on multiple sites, and also done multiple draft mocks on both the Draft Network and Pro Football Focus. Pretty much agree with your assessments. Personally, I would like the Bills to select either an Edge Rusher or Cornerback with their first pick. In every case, the Top 3 CBs are long-gone by #30. And if one of the top DEs drops, it's usually Gregory Rousseau (who has dropped huge due to his red flags). If I'm Brandon Beane, I think the best move would be to watch the board closely on draft night... then either jump up 5 slots or so to get a DE or CB that falls, OR trade back into the top of the 2nd Round and get someone like Asante Samuel Jr.. Then maybe do something similar to move higher with Pick #61, because we are in a similar predicament in that round (just out of reach of the best value guys).

I don't think people understand how early Kyle Pitts is going to be drafted. I also don't think they understand how much draft capitol it will cost to get that high. We all know the Top 3 picks are going to be QBs. That much is certain. But the next team is Atlanta. They already have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley (so Jamar Chase is highly unlikely). They already have Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary (so Penei Sewell does not meet a big need). Getting rid of Matt Ryan before 2023 would cost them over $40 million in dead cap (so I think the QB talk for them is a smokescreen). None of the defensive prospects are worthy of going that high. If the Falcons don't trade down, I think Pitts goes to them at #4. Look at how much the 49ers had to trade to get from #12 to #3. They gave up their 2022 first rounder, 2023 first rounder and 2021 third rounder. And yet there are people on this board who think we can package Tremaine Edmunds (just before we need to make a financial commitment to him) and a couple mid-round choices this year to move up 26 spots. In reality, we would be talking about mortgaging pretty much every 1st/2nd Round Pick for the next three drafts to get there. I don't care how good people think Pitts is going to be. If Beane sold the team's draft future for a Tight End (when we already have the #2 scoring and yardage offense in the NFL), it would possibly be the WORST move in the history of the franchise.

Yeah. I was fully expecting the Jets to trade Sam Darnold and take a QB at 32, so that wasn't surprising. What surprises me, is that Carolina was sitting at #8 and decided to make this move before seeing which QBs were available at their pick. Everyone knows Trevor Lawrence is going #1. The odds are heavily in favor of Zach Wilson at #2. After that, we know San Francisco is taking a QB. But nobody has a clue which one. I've seen solid arguments for all three (Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones), and any hints from the 49ers could easily be them blowing a smokescreen. To me, the smart money for Carolina was to wait until draft night and see who drops to #8. So by making the quick move for Darnold, that tells me that either: A) The Panthers were not comfortable with drafting any of the QBs outside of Lawrence and Wilson. B) They are pretty confident none of the QBs will drop to them at #8, and the price was too high to move up.

This post doesn't make much sense. Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott have always been very quick to recognize their mistakes (Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones for example), regardless of the investment made up-front. It's one of their strong points. Cody Ford is not guaranteed a starting spot in 2021 by any means (they also re-signed Jon Feliciano and tendered Ike Boettger). And if he does win the job, it will indeed be at one of the Guard spots. The Bills coaching staff slid him inside last year, so I don't understand the implication they are stubbornly playing him at Tackle. Coming out of the draft, there were a mix of opinions on whether Ford could play on the outside. The Bills were absolutely not the only ones in that boat. And I have no idea what the comment about Tremaine Edmunds means. The Bills haven't "anointed" him as anything, except the team's starting middle linebacker. Are you suggesting we should have been starting Tyrel Dodson instead? Are you suggesting the Bills should cut him? I'm not exactly sure what you think the team should be doing differently with Edmunds. The guy has been in the NFL for three years, is only 23 years old, and made the Pro-Bowl twice.

The Chiefs kept Alex Smith after drafting Patrick Mahomes. Smith responded with a career year, and it gave Mahomes the time needed to develop on the sidelines. Green Bay did the same thing (twice) with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, and then got an MVP-caliber year out of Rodgers after taking Jordan Love. Don't just assume the 49ers are guaranteed to trade away Garoppolo, just because of the trade-up. I truly believe their plan is to keep him for at least another year, while the #3 pick develops on the bench.

Fans really seem to misunderstand the concept of "Best Player Available." The idea is NOT that you completely ignore positional importance, or completely disregard the needs of the roster. The idea is that you don't REACH for a need position, when there are significantly better players available. Pound for pound, I would say Aaron Donald is probably the best football player in the NFL. But once you factor in positional importance, he may struggle to crack the Top 10.

Sam Darnold. You can't hit the target if you never take the shot. The only way a team can land a franchise QB is by continually drafting quarterbacks, until one of them finally succeeds. Maybe Darnold is a late bloomer. But at this point, I haven't seen much hope that he develops into the franchise guy. So for the Bills, the best scenario is probably the Jets sticking with him another 1-2 years and not drafting another high prospect.

Sounds about right, based on what I've heard. Outside of Cleveland (who had picks #1 and #4), the Bills had the best collection of capitol going into that draft. If a team in the Top 10 was interested in moving down, Buffalo was the first team for them to negotiate with. So as long as Beane kept in contact, there was very little danger that another franchise could suddenly leap into the fray and steal a spot ahead of them. Everybody knew the Browns were going QB at #1, and the Jets were going QB at #3. In his conversations with the various GMs, Beane correctly determined that neither the Giants (#2) or Colts (#6) were interested in trading down from their spots. The Browns were also not interested in moving from the #4 spot, since they already had tons of picks stockpiled. That left Denver at #5 and Tampa Bay at #7, and Beane has stated that tentative deals were agreed to with both franchises. When Bradley Chubb fell to the Broncos, the deal went to the Bucs and the rest is history.

Not sure what you mean by "Nickle LB." The definition of Nickel Defense is 5 defensive backs. Which almost always means taking the third linebacker off the field in favor of another cornerback or safety. Over the last few years, Nickel has basically become our base defense. I'm all for adding a Linebacker as depth. We could use to upgrade the spot currently occupied by A.J. Klein. But we just gave Matt Milano a big contract, and Tremaine Edmunds is probably going to be under contract for 2 more years. Those guys play close to 100% of the snaps, and almost never come off the field. Not sure a guy who plays less than 50% of snaps is worthy of a 1st Round selection.

Unfortunately, this is a weak draft at the top for Cornerback (actually almost every defensive position). The top three guys are Caleb Farley, Patrick Surtain II and Jaycee Horn. I would expect them to be long-gone by the time we pick - although there are some recent rumblings about Farley dropping due to injury concerns (not sure I believe them). I've done numerous mock drafts, and the value picks that usually fall to the Bills are almost always at positions we don't really need like Wide Receiver and Linebacker. The most likely CB options available at #30 include Asante Samuel Jr., Elijah Molden, Greg Newsome II and Tyson Campbell. Those guys are generally considered 2nd Round talents.

What he said. Unless you are drafting in the Top 5-10 picks (or determined to make a trade-up), there is no way a team picking #30 can have a particular guy in mind. I've been watching the draft for 20+ years and it's way too ridiculously unpredictable after the first handful of players. My understanding of Beane's drafting style is that he placed guys into tiers. As our pick gets closer and guys start coming off the board, he makes the determination on whether a trade-up is needed to secure somebody he wants, or if he can stay put or trade-back. Even in Josh Allen's case, I don't believe he was the Bills ONLY target that night. What if the Browns (#1) or Jets (#3) had taken Allen instead? Beane would have wasted trading Cordy Glenn, and then been left with a quarterback he didn't really want. Based on all the stories I have heard regarding the Allen pick, I believe Beane had narrowed things down to 3 QBs he was comfortable drafting, and was confident he could ultimately make the move high enough to land him.

Houston is going to want multiple 1st Round Picks (and probably more) in exchange for Deshaun Watson. It's hard to imagine any franchise making that kind of investment with all the legal issues currently hanging over his head. And those legal issues are unlikely to resolve before draft day, which is only a month away. The Jets are sitting at #2, and have Sam Darnold's 5th Year Option on the table. They need to make their QB decisions now. The Patriots are in a similar situation, although it's possible they miss-out on the top QB prospects without some kind of trade-up. The Dolphins appear to have already committed to Tua for the 2021 season. With all of that said... I wouldn't rule out some kind of mid-season trade, or Watson's status still being in flux at this time next year. So unfortunately, the possibility of Watson eventually landing in Miami or New England isn't really far-fetched.

The revenue loss from 2020 was divided between this year's cap and next. Otherwise every team in the NFL would have been forced to gut their roster like the Saints did, and everyone would have been in deep trouble paying existing contracts. So even if fan attendance gets back to normal this upcoming season, the cap isn't going to jump up crazy in 2022. Assuming the NFL can get back to pre-COVID attendance levels, the big cap increase is going to happen in 2023.

At this point, the Bills are already signing camp bodies to compete for the final roster spots. I wouldn't be certain that Jacob Hollister, Efe Obada or Matt Breida actually make the team after final cuts. I'll be honest. It's been a pretty uneventful and somewhat disappointing free agency. Yeah, I was thrilled we re-signed almost all of the guys I wanted to bring back. But I was really hoping we could get a veteran corner to upgrade on Levi Wallace, another good edge rusher to add into the rotation, and a real threat at tight end. Maybe we are waiting for the post-draft bargain bin, but right now it really appears that Beane is done (with anything other than back-end depth). Hopefully the draft goes well, because it just doesn't appear to be a deep class at our need-positions.

Looking at the roster as it stands, I see about 45-48 players that are pretty much roster locks. Barring trades or surprise cuts, that means we only have 5-8 open roster spots. With a total of 7 picks and the ensuing UDFA signings, I agree that using some of that capitol to move up may be wise. My feeling is that Buffalo's biggest needs are CB, DE and TE, with OG, RB and DT not far behind. I've done numerous mock drafts, and sometimes one of the need positions falls to us at #30. But there are other occasions where BPA is another wide receiver or middle linebacker, which would not be ideal. It will be an interesting draft, and we'll have to wait and see how the board falls.

The Dolphins were the only real threat last year. And they lost their (true) starting QB to free agency. They have a legitimately good roster overall - especially on defense, but I don't see any reason for Miami fans to be optimistic about Tua at this point. He was below average as a rookie, and didn't seem to get better as the season progressed. Without the luxury of Ryan Fitzpatrick come in to save the day, it's unlikely they would have won 10 games. With their playoff hopes on the line and them forced to play Tua the whole 4 quarters, our backups beat them 56-26. Fears about the Patriots are more related to PTSD (from two decades of abuse) than a legitimate concern about their roster. Yes, they added a ton of guys in free agency. And yes, they are getting some defensive starters back from opting out. But for every decent signing (Matthew Judon, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry), they also added a guys who I can't see making much impact (Jalen Mills, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor). Consider they finished SIX games behind Buffalo in the standings last year (we only finished two games behind them in 2019). That accounts for over 37% of the season. That's a tough number to catch. The Jets were probably the NFL's worst team last year, so they are at least 2-3 seasons away from making any noise in the division. It's hard not to picture them being better than 2020. But barring them adding Deshaun Watson, this is clearly the start of another rebuild.

Probably because after they come up with a new team name (let's say the Warriors), there will be new push to change the "Washington" part.

The defense was expected to be elite in 2020. They ended up average. I agree that some of this was due to Star Lotulelei opting out, leaving us without a true 1-Tech DT. Some was certainly due to injuries at the linebacker position. Some was due to the new faces on the D-Line, learning how to play together. Yes, we played better overall in the second half of the season. But the Kansas City Chiefs clearly exposed us in the championship game. Our pass rush is not good enough. They couldn't sniff Patrick Mahomes, against a group of mostly backup offensive linemen. Our secondary is too reliant on zone coverage, and we need guys who can do better in 1-on-1 matchups. The Bills need upgrades, or Kansas City is going to crush us again this season.

There needs to be a happy medium. I've never advocated that we splurge on the big name free agents. I'm not saying we should overspend, or mortgage our future. But there are going to be plenty of bargain guys, who are asking for a fair price, who can absolutely help us. The question asked in the OP was whether we should just start looking to the draft. And I believe that would be a huge mistake. It's just like with your personal finances. Smart people know how to save and invest. They make sure not to get deep into debt, and always try to make good decisions with money. But you can also go too far the other way, and become so frugal that you never take advantage of the savings you have created. It's all about balance. There are foolish things we could do, which would do nothing but put us into salary cap problems 2-3 years from now. But there are also safe/reasonable restructures that can be done, which would give us the ability to pull in 1-2 decent vets this season. The Bills are in a position to compete for a Super Bowl now. And we know where we need to improve to take the next step. There is no reason we should go into the 2021 season with the same defensive starting lineup.

The Bills weren't good enough last year to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. It was painfully clear in both matchups. If we are going to have a prayer at winning the Super Bowl in 2021, they are clearly the next hurdle. Thus far, the Bills have made zero upgrades to the starting roster. Nothing to improve the pass rush. Nothing to improve the run defense. Nothing to improve our coverage on the back end. If the season started today, we might as well concede the AFC to Kansas City. Sorry for the brutal honestly. But we aren't good enough to beat them. Smart teams build through the draft. But it would be foolish to expect a massive impact from the incoming class. Look at what we got from A.J. Epenesa last year. Or Ed Oliver as a rookie. It takes years for these guys to be come good NFL players. As I said in another thread, I applaud Brandon Beane for being patient and not splurging on the first wave of free agency. But if he's just going to throw up the white flag and say "sorry, no cap space"... then he is basically content with another season as the runner-up in the AFC and punting the 2021 season away. I'm not in favor of "kicking the can down the road" - so I would be against moves like restructuring Jerry Hughes. But others have pointed out that by simply restructuring Stephon Diggs (who will inevitably get a new contract anyway), we can easily clear $8-10 million in space. This is a player we should plan on keeping for many more years, so it's not mortgaging the future.

The clear weakness last season was on defense. Our biggest need is cornerback. Followed closely by edge rusher. Followed by depth at defensive tackle and linebacker. Any offensive upgrades would be nice, but they certainly aren't our biggest needs. At this point, our offense is almost identical to the one that finished #2 in scoring and #2 in yards last season. The only changes so far are Emmanuel Sanders for John Brown (who missed half the season anyway) and the possible loss of Isaiah McKenzie as our gadget guy.

When I hear the term "one year wonder" - I always think back to Mark Rypien. I still believe the 1991 team was possibly the best roster the Bills ever put on the field. But the Redskins that year (and particularly Rypien) seemed to just have the magic touch. Nobody could stop them that season. They destroyed us in the Super Bowl, and then went back to being mediocre.

I think Beane was very smart to avoid the first wave of free agency. Handing out $10-12 million per year to players like Bud Dupree and Carl Lawson has the potential to create recipe for long-term cap problems, with only marginal payback on the field. But I also think it would be a huge mistake to walk out of free agency without ANY kind of roster upgrades. Especially on defense. Simply put... Our run defense was not good enough last year. Our pass rush was not good enough last year. The AFC title goes through the Kansas City. And even with a pretty healthy roster in the Championship Game, our secondary had no answers for slowing them down. We need to improve on that side of the ball. Unfortunately for us, this is an extremely weak defensive draft. It's a fantastic draft at quarterback and wide receiver (which happen to be our two strongest positions). But there are only a handful of high-level prospects at edge rusher, tackle or cornerback. And it's totally possible all of those guys will be gone by the time we pick at #30. There are still some quality guys on the market who should be willing to sign bargain deals, who can upgrade our defense immediately. At corner, Adoree' Jackson, Kyle Fuller, Richard Sherman or Malcolm Butler would be great #2 options across from Tre White. I would gladly settle for Xavier Rhodes, Quinton Dunbar or Casey Heyward. At pass rusher, I think our best bet is exploring the trade market. But we could still get a decent veteran like Jadeveon Clowney, Melvin Ingram, Carlos Dunlap, Aldon Smith or Justin Houston. I would even be interested in some of the interior guys left like Geno Atkins, Jurrell Casey, N'Damakong Suh or Sheldon Rankins who can contribute in a rotation. One of Beane's primary rules is to NOT go into the draft with a glaring need that must be addressed. Doing so ultimately leads to poor decisions like overdrafting (taking a prospect too early) or wasting valuable resources to trade up. The Bills may not have a "glaring" need in some people's eyes. But we clearly aren't good enough on defense to achieve our goal... which should be to win the Super Bowl THIS SEASON.

Just saw on Twitter. Cynthia Frelund confirmed the big Bills rumor was for a Tight End. But it was not for Zach Ertz. She then gives a clue, saying it was a "giant" rumor. This seems to suggest we were either in the running for Kyle Rudolph (who signed with the Giants) or maybe a trade for Evan Engram.

Sounds like a flexible piece, who will push Reggie Gilliam in the H-Back role. I doubt he is being considered as the starter, and this doesn't stop us from pursuing Zach Ertz.