mjt328

NFL scouts usually value "projection" above "production." Not to mention, this is a copycat league and two of the most successful QBs (Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen) came out of college as extremely raw prospects with infinite physical upside. Yes, Justin Fields is a good athlete with a strong arm. But when you look past his college stats, his ceiling is probably a notch below Zach Wilson and Tre Lance. And despite the great results on the field, there are bad habits on film (such as staring down his initial reads) that may be tough to break. Sometimes more experience is not a good thing when it comes to teaching. Also, I'm not buying the Mac Jones hype at all. The 49ers haven't given any hints who they really prefer, and I think the media has really blown this speculation out of control with no real facts to back it up. Part of me thinks the NFL is encouraging the drama, because they want good ratings for the draft, and the first two picks are already set in stone. According to those in the know, Kyle Shanahan preferred Kirk Cousins over RGIII all those years ago, but was smart enough to recognize value and waited until the 4th Round to take him. I just can't see this team trading away their 2022-2023 drafts to pick the #5 ranked QB, who almost certainly would have been their at #12 anyway. Either way, it's not like Fields is going to be dropping crazy down the boards. I think he could still go #3 to the 49ers or #4 in a trade-up. At worst, I can't see him dropping past #8.

I believe we can win 13 games again. I believe we can win the AFC East again. I believe we can make the AFC Championship again. My problem is believing we can defeat the Kansas City Chiefs. We were 0-2 last year, and I don't think we've taken the steps necessary to vault above them. We tried two different gameplans, and failed both times. And honestly, neither game was particularly close. The first time we tried playing "keep away" from Patrick Mahomes, and got totally stampeded by their run game. The second time we played our regular McDermott zone defense and hoped our offense could outperform theirs. The offense choked and the pass defense was absolutely destroyed. In contrast, Tampa Bay showed the way to beat the Chiefs is by getting heavy pressure. I agree our offense played bad in the Championship Game. But our solution for beating the Chiefs can't just be... "Score 40 points and cross your fingers!" Our defense needs to be able to make some stops against them. The McDermott defense is dependent on having a strong pass rush from the D-Line. Our guys can't seem to handle that job, so I would say more talent is needed. That is players. Not just gameplan. Be honest. You never heard of Efe Obada before he signed with Buffalo. He is not the answer to our pass rush. Star Lotulelei should help a little, but he's getting up there in age and sat out an entire season. I am also hoping for a big step from AJ Epenesa, but it's also realistic to expect Jerry Hughes/Mario Addison to take a step back. The offseason isn't over. But that's kind of the point of this thread. If we waste a 1st Rounder (and more) to land Travis Etienne, you can say goodbye to upgrading the D-Line in 2021.

I'll be completely honest. This has been a terrible and horribly disappointing offseason for the Bills. At least so far. Our biggest free agent additions have been a backup quarterback (on a one-year deal) and swapping John Brown for Emmanuel Sanders (basically a wash if both guys are healthy). Nothing has been done to upgrade the pass rush. Nothing has been done to improve the secondary. To make matters worse, our rivals in the AFC East have made some nice improvements. The Dolphins are loaded with draft picks to upgrade an already strong roster. The Jets are a few days away from getting a potential franchise QB, and also have a ton of selections. And after filling tons of holes in free agency, don't be surprised if Justin Fields falls in Bill Belichick's lap on Thursday night. Yuck. This offseason was Brandon Beane's golden opportunity to solidify the Bills among the NFL's elite teams. Our performance in the AFC Championship Game was awful. It was disgustingly bad. We didn't even look like legit competition for the Chiefs. Then two weeks later, the world saw Tampa Bay lay-out the blueprint for beating them. And it wasn't by featuring a Pro-Bowl running back. I don't understand how anyone could watch Chiefs receivers running open all game, and be fine with the exact same players in coverage. I don't understand how anyone could watch the Super Bowl, and be fine with trotting out the exact same group of pass rushers. I want to trust Beane. And in many ways, he's earned our trust as Bills fans. But I cannot imagine how picking a RUNNING BACK in the first round (especially with a trade-up) could possibly be the answer. Just look to the #4 team picking in the draft (Atlanta) to see how quickly a championship-caliber roster can fall apart due to bad decisions.

So wait a minute. I'm confused. You say the 2021 draft has less eligible players than normal (meaning less depth in later rounds). Due to the COVID opt-outs, shortened season and incomplete medical checks, there is also a lot of uncertainty about how players should be properly ranked (meaning greater risk of busts in all rounds). And due to the change in eligibility rules, the 2022 draft is going to have more incoming players than usual (meaning greater depth in later rounds). And our logical response is to basically trade away all of our 2021 and 2022 picks, so we can move up for just one player? Wouldn't it be the complete opposite? Wouldn't this be the draft to move back, and stockpile extra picks in next year's draft?

Brandon Beane is a good General Manager. The Bills are now a very well-run organization. It's hard for me to believe this rumor, because trading up for a RB in the first round is something a team like the Jets or Bengals would do.

I've been thinking the Falcons really want to trade down, with Kyle Pitts as the backup plan if nobody gives them a good enough deal. If you really think about it, Pitts is really the only player to make sense (unless they are looking to trade Julio Jones). - In March, they restructured Matt Ryan's contract to give themselves more cap space. But in doing so, they basically made it impossible to cut/trade him until 2023. If they are considering a QB at #4, it was beyond stupid to commit themselves to Ryan for another two years. - With Jake Matthews (LT) and Kaleb McGary (RT), they have a lot invested at Offensive Tackle already. Hard to see them going for a player like Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater in the Top 10, just so they can push someone inside to Guard. - This draft really doesn't have defensive players worthy of a Top 5 pick. They could probably trade down and land one of the top Cornerbacks, Edge Rushers or Linebackers. - I also figured Wide Receiver was a long-shot, since they already have Jones and Calvin Ridley. If they are looking at the market for Jones, that tells me they are possibly considering Ja'Marr Chase at #4.

Does this mean the Falcons are considering Ja'mar Chase at #4?

Technically speaking, the employer is the NFL. Not the individual teams. When a player is drafted, this would be like getting hired at a company and then being transferred to a particular department. The big difference is that instead of managers splitting up employees inside a private conference room, it is done via a public draft. Ask Mike Florio how many employees sign for 6-7 figure contracts right out of college. It's amazing to me how entitled the people in this country are becoming. There are sports figures making $10+ million per year at 27 years old, who go around saying they are treated like slaves, and complaining how life is so unfair for them. And they are being completely serious when they say it. Honestly, it's disgusting.

No Jaelen Phillips? Or do you not think he has a chance of lasting until 30?

Running Back is usually the position most ready to play Year 1. Lots of rookie RBs finish Top 5-10 in the league in rushing. Other positions take at least 2-3 years to develop. With that said, I am going to answer Caleb Farley. Many consider him the best Cornerback to come out in a few years (in pure talent). The question with him is long-term viability due to injuries, which is why he could possibly drop to our pick. He would be a huge addition across from Tre White.

There are a lot of great observations in this thread, regarding our defensive scheme. I tend to agree with this. Especially if we are looking to eventually beat the Chiefs. Sean McDermott's scheme is very good most of the time. But there are times when our zone coverage is just getting picked apart, and I'm screaming at the tv screen to make some kind of adjustment. We just don't seem to have the capabilities to switch to a press/man coverage on the fly, and it's something I wish could change. As several pointed out, it's rare to see Kansas City suffer a breakdown on the O-Line like they did in the Super Bowl. Even if we somehow manage to improve our pass rush in the draft, I'm not sure we can replicate what Tampa Bay did in that game. In my opinion, we also need some help in the secondary. Not just role players who are decent in zone, but guys who can play man.

This exactly. Schemes only work with the right personnel. Most of the longtime Bills fans seem to lean towards Wade Phillips. But don't forget that defense was absolutely stacked. Bruce Smith was possibly the best pass rusher of all-time. He was next to Ted Washington, who was possibly the best nose tackle ever. Not to mention guys like Phil Hansen and a growing star in Sam Cowart (I was always so upset how injuries ruined his career). Same with the Jim Schwartz Wide-9, which had an incredible D-Line with Mario Williams, Marcel Dareus, Kyle Williams and Jerry Hughes. Honestly, I'm back and forth on Sean McDermott's scheme. Sometimes it seems to have a strong balance of aggression. Other times it seems way too passive. Sometimes it seems versatile and adaptable, allowing us to make strong in-game adjustments. Other times (like the AFC Championship for instance) I get frustrated that we continue to stick with the same coverages and pressure packages, when it clearly isn't stopping the opponent. Sometimes our defense seems fundamentally sound, with the players in-sync and doing their jobs. Other times, I feel like our guys completely forget things like tackling and gap integrity.

Please given an example where Beane has not drafted BPA.

If you look at the Bills roster, the only position where a rookie could potentially start on Day 1 is at Running Back. All the other spots have solid veterans in place for 2021. And even if the Bills drafted Travis Etienne/Najee Harris, it's very possible they are forced to play behind Devin Singletary/Zack Moss at first. Not sure anything can be taken from Beane's comments. Also, there hasn't been a "delay" in activating the 5th-Year Option on Tremaine Edmunds. The deadline isn't until after the draft, and none of the NFL teams have activated those options yet. The Bills haven't done it for Josh Allen either.

BPA makes sense in tiers. At #30, you shouldn't pass on a guy you have marked as a Top 10 talent, just because of greater need at a different position. But you also don't neglect need just because the WR is #28 on your board, and the CB is ranked #29. As stated, I'm not a fan of taking a WR at #30. But if Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle or Devonte Smith fall to us, then I'm racing to the podium and taking a WR. The highest I've seen Rondale Moore ranked is around the #20-25 area, and most seem to have him ranked in the mid-2nd Round. Unless the Bills scouts see something nobody else in the football world does, I don't see any reason how Moore could possibly be a significant BPA at #30.

The two strongest position groups on our team are QB and WR. It would be really tough for me to get behind the Bills drafting a guy at #30, who would be a slot only guy and playing his rookie year as #5 on the depth chart. Not to mention that it would signal to Cole Beasley (who just had a career-year) that 2021 is his last year with the team, and his services are no longer needed. Don't forget how important culture is to this roster. If you are worried about age eventually catching up to Beasley, grab a developmental guy in the later rounds who can maybe take his place in 2-3 seasons. A first rounder is basically saying that we don't want him anymore. In my opinion, Buffalo's best chance at surpassing the Kansas City Chiefs is by finding a way to slow down their offense. Our team was #2 in scoring and #2 in yards last year. Unlike on the defensive side of the ball, there isn't a lot of room to get better on offense. Unless one of the top talents unexpectedly falls, I would be disappointed if our primary targets aren't at Edge Rusher or Cornerback. And if BPA isn't matching up with those positions at #30, that would be the time to trade-up or trade-down.

As a whole, the "rushing attack" does play an important role in the offense. Even on teams that pass most of the time, it helps keep the defense honest when deciding how to stack the line of scrimmage. The argument is more about how much value we should place in the individual "star" running back. Using your Cleveland example... do the Browns really lose much when Nick Chubb is out? If he was traded away, and they just rolled with Kareem Hunt and a new 3rd Round draft pick, would there be a significant change in the Win-Loss record? Of course there is no way to know for sure. But based on statistics compiled over the last decade, the suggestion is probably no. Recent history shows that even when you draft a superstar RB (Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs for example) those players make almost no difference in the Win/Loss record when they are in the lineup. Recent history shows that superstar RBs generally usually threaten a holdout after Season 3, get a big contract and then see an almost immediate big drop in production (Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Elliott). Recent history suggests that superstar RBs can be easily found in later rounds (Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Johnathan Taylor). All of this tells me that drafting a 1st Round RB is just not smart business.

This was an excellent article. For anyone making their argument without taking the time to read it, I definitely think you should go back and reconsider. There are multiple reasons why modern NFL teams are foolish to draft Running Backs in the first round, and this touches on quite a few. Looking around the NFL, there are plenty of good RBs. But outside of Derrick Henry (who was a 2nd Round Pick himself), I can't think of any who are truly difference makers. As the article mentioned, teams see virtually no change in Win-Loss record with their star RB playing or with him out of the lineup. A great example is Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers went 5-11 with him playing 16 games. They went 5-11 with him playing 3 games. RB is also one of the easiest positions to find solid starters in the mid/late rounds: Just for comparison... as of this moment, 60% of the current starting Quarterbacks were drafted in the 1st Round. That number will almost certainly jump to over 70-75% following this year's draft, and depending on whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill win the starting job in New Orleans. The stat is almost identical for Left Tackles drafted in the 1st Round (around 60%). Positions like Edge Rusher, Cornerback and Wide Receiver are around 35-45% drafted in the 1st Round. For RBs, that number is currently less than 20%. It could rise or drop, depending on what happens next Thursday. Smart GMs know the sweet spot for RBs is the 2nd-3rd Round. I think Brandon Beane understands this, and will continue looking to upgrade the position with Day 2 picks or by addressing the O-Line first.

In most of the draft rankings I've seen, Jaysen Oweh is usually the #5 Edge Rusher (behind Kwity Paye, Azeez Ojulari, Jaelen Phillips and Gregory Rousseau). Most places have him as a borderline late 1st/early 2nd rounder. If the Bills scouts believe they can develop him, I have no problem with them taking Oweh at #30. But I think trading up for a boom/bust guy who probably would have fallen to #30, and who probably won't contribute at all this season. That would be a waste. The only situation where I would be OK with the Bills trading up, would be for someone who absolutely won't drop to our pick. The only Edge Rusher I see that being is Paye. It's very possible that one of the other guys will fall to #30. And if not an Edge Rusher, then one of the Top 4-5 Cornerbacks (personally I'm holding out hope for Caleb Farley).

Like any other draft, it depends on the position. Quarterback is incredibly strong at the top. But not very deep after the initial five guys. Wide Receiver and Offensive Tackle are both very strong at the top, and very deep into the mid-rounds. Then you have a historically great Tight End prospect, but very little after him. Unfortunately, the Bills need to upgrade the defense. And this draft is pretty pathetic on the defensive side. It's quite possible that nobody on the defensive side gets drafted into the Top 10. The best bets are Micah Parsons and Patrick Surtain, and neither of those guys are locks. And by the time you reach Pick #30, the first-round caliber guys could be gone already. Personally, I am hoping that Brandon Beane either: a) Trades up for someone like Kwity Paye or Jaycee Horn, if they manage to slip into the 20s b) Stays put and gets someone like Caleb Farley or Greggory Rousseau, who were ranked high two months ago and then dropped due to red flags c) Trades back 5-10 spots and gains an extra 2nd Round pick.

I've looked over dozens of "big board rankings" across the Internet, from ESPN and NFL.com to The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus. All of them have Trevor Lawrence as the #1 QB. All of them have Mac Jones as the #5 QB, behind some order of Zach Wilson, Justin Fields and Trey Lance. In fact, prior to the 49ers talk, most mock drafts expected Jones to fall outside the Top 10 and possibly even the Top 15. Now, it's not totally surprising that an NFL team would have Jones ranked higher than the media guys. That happens every single year with various draft prospects. But what I DO think is surprising, is seeing a team like the 49ers make a MASSIVE trade-up (2022 and 2023 first rounders) well over a MONTH before the draft. Before these QBs even had pro-day workouts. By simply waiting until draft night and watching how the picks fall, it's very likely that Jones would have fallen to them at #12. At the very least, the 49ers may have been able to move up less spots and given up less picks. Think about this. Basically we are saying Kyle Shanahan is one of the ONLY people in the football world who ranks Jones above Fields/Lance. AND Shanahan views the gap between those QBs to be so huge, that he refuses to settle for anyone but Jones. AND despite having a solid QB on the roster already in Jimmy G., he was willing to sacrifice two future drafts to ensure nobody could trade ahead and grab Jones. Not sure I'm buying all this. ///////////////////////////////////////////////// My feeling is that people in the media have assigned a "type" to Shanahan: Kirk Cousins. Matt Ryan. Jimmy Garoppolo. These are the types of QBs he's had success with, so he couldn't possibly be looking at something else. But I think Shanahan sees an evolution coming in the NFL. Arguably the best four QBs in the NFL in 2020 were Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson. All big-armed, strong, athletic, mobile and able to extend plays. Tom Brady has always been the anomaly, and is now the last remaining dinosaur from the pocket-passer era. One he's gone, that style of quarterbacking may become a thing of the past. Four years ago, the Chiefs were a regular playoff team with a strong roster and solid QB (Alex Smith). Andy Reid made the bold move to trade-up for a raw, high-ceiling prospect in Mahomes. And instead of rushing him into action, he let Mahomes sit the bench for a full year and develop behind the veteran. Not only did Smith respond with a career-year, but Mahomes emerged 12 months later to become possibly the best QB in the game. The Chiefs then won the Super Bowl in his second season starting. I think Shanahan is looking at Fields or Lance, and is planning on using the Kansas City model.

Since taking over as the Bills GM in 2017, Brandon Beane has spent only four draft premium picks (defined as Rounds 1-3) on the defense. In contrast, he has spent six premium picks (including the 1st Rounder for Stefon Diggs) on the offense. So the first answer to your question, is that Beane has thus far put a little more focus on the offensive side of the ball. Especially at QB, WR and O-Line. To expand on this point, you forget that until the 2020 (unexpected) down season, the Bills defense was Top 5 in the NFL. When you are already set at certain positions, you tend to focus on other places. Until now, Beane has no reason to add immediate impact players on defense. After adding Tremaine Edmunds to play MLB, both starting linebacker spots were good. With Tre White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde already on the team, he's pretty much just brought in competition for the #2 CB spot, and left the secondary alone for 2-3 years now. That pretty much just leaves the D-Line spots outside of Jerry Hughes. Almost ALL of the veteran player losses since Beane has taken over have been on the defensive front seven. Kyle Williams and Lorenzo Alexander retiring. Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips leaving in free agency. Star Lotulelei opting out. All of this has affected the overall continuity and success on the D-Line. But again, it really didn't show until last year. As a second answer to your question, I think your view of a "successful" draft pick or free agent signing is a little bit skewed. Not every player can be an HUGE IMPACT All-Pro star in the NFL. Not every guy shows up as a monster on the stat sheet. If a GM is able to grab a solid NFL starter, then I believe he's done a good job. I know that Bills fans argue endlessly about Edmunds. But the guy has been a starter in every NFL game he's every played in, has amassed over 110 tackles in each season of his career, and has been voted to the Pro-Bowl each of the last two years. If he becomes a free agent next year, he's going to be a full-time starter on his next team too. It's ridiculous to argue that he's a busted pick. In the same way, Ed Oliver has not become a huge force yet. But he absolutely was a solid starter last year, despite playing out of position (1-Tech) and taking double-teams a good chunk of the season. Don't be surprised if he takes a step this season. Many felt Harrison Phillips was ready to step into the 1-Tech starting role ahead of Star Lotulelei, prior to tearing his ACL. This was an unfortunate injury that he may never fully recover from. And obviously not Beane's fault. The Bills drafted A.J. Epenesa with the intention of completely changing his physique, and turning him from a strictly power rusher into a more versatile player. You can't judge him after one rookie season in the pros. On the free agent side, guys like Lotulelei and Mario Addison are considered disappointments by the fanbase. But they are solid starters.

And then you have trade-ups, such as the Chiefs move for Patrick Mahomes. If they really wanted a QB, they could have stayed-put (or even traded back) and landed a prospect like Deshone Kizer, Davis Webb or Nathan Peterman. Why would you waste valuable picks, when the draft is just a crap-shoot? It's easy to only point out the 1st Rounders who bust, the late rounders who surprise, and the times the pro scouts get it wrong. But by and large, the NFL scouts do an excellent job of identifying which talent has the best chance of succeeding. I saw a statistic recently that 60-70% of NFL starters were selected within the Top 3 Rounds (Top 100 players).

It always depends on the circumstance. You never want to make the decision on moving up or down, before seeing how the board is falling and what players are available. Unlike some of our previous GMs, Brandon Beane always sets himself up for maximum flexibility when entering the Draft. He could go up. He could go down. He could stay put. He could take (almost) any position on the roster.

Sometimes trade-ups are the best move. Sometimes a trade-down is better. Sometimes it's better to stay put. Each situation is different, depending on how a GM has players ranked, team need, overall value on the board, positional depth of the prospect class, what trade offers are available, etc., etc., etc. As you mentioned, the best draft move the Bills have made in the last 30+ years (if not ever) was trading up for Josh Allen. We also got a starting Left Tackle in Dion Dawkins in a draft day trade-up, just before Brandon Beane arrived on the scene. You can find other examples all across the NFL of trade-ups that worked out great. It's way too easy to look back years later with 20/20 vision and find late round picks who we "could" have taken. GMs can only go by their own scouting and rankings at the time. We needed a MLB for this defense, and our scouting department LOVED the potential for Tremaine Edmunds. At that time, nobody had Fred Werner close to the same tier, and Dareus Leonard plays on the weakside (like Matt Milano). The simple fact was... if they wanted Edmunds, they probably needed to make the trade-up to get him. Going into the offseason, I felt like the Bills needed to to upgrade their pass rush and secondary in order to compete with Kansas City. They did virtually nothing to address either position in Free Agency. So while I'm a believer in BPA and agree that we shouldn't get desperate in the draft - it would be very disappointing for me to see us walk out of the draft without a DE and CB in the first three rounds. Our overall roster is extremely deep and it will be tough for late-round draft selections to actually make the roster. So depending on how the board falls, I think a trade-up may be the smartest move. If someone like Kwity Paye, Jaelen Phillips, Caleb Farley or Jaycee Horn make it to around #20 (where we could get up for a mid-round pick), then I think Beane should strongly consider it.