mjt328

Crazy that Baker Mayfield was not included in this trade. Houston is left without a QB. Cleveland probably won't get max value for trading Mayfield, since teams know they NEED to get rid of him now.

Most would believe the Bills upgraded at O-Line coach. Ryan Bates was a better OG than Jon Feliciano down the stretch. And Rodger Saffold is likely an upgrade over Darryl Williams. Matt Breida was not our third down back. He was barely active last season. Patrick DiMarco hasn't been on the roster since 2019. This one is odd.

My guess is that we haven't heard about a couple restructures or extensions (Allen, Diggs, Dawkins, White, etc.) It's also possible that Miller's first year cap hit is extremely low, then skyrockets over the next two seasons. Without those two things, I don't think the Bills would have been compliant with the start of free agency. The bigger question is what this means going forward... Two guys that may be heavily impacted are Tremaine Edmunds and Dawson Knox. Both are set to be free agents next season, and it may be difficult to get both under the cap.

This exactly. Since the Kansas City game ended, there have been endless posts/comments about this year being the Bills "championship window" and they absolutely MUST win the Super Bowl in 2022 or it's pretty much time to clean house. I've even some posters who claim our window already closed the day Josh Allen signed his extension (because teams only win championships while guys are on their rookie contracts). Don't forget how long it took Sean McDermott's mentor (Andy Reid) to finally win the big one. Reid was an NFL coach for 21 seasons before winning the Super Bowl. His teams with the Eagles/Chiefs had gone to the playoffs 15 times, made it to the conference championship 7 times and to the Super Bowl 3 times.

It was definitely too early to make this statement. I thought so yesterday. But don't forget there are usually "stages" to free agency. The guys who sign in the first few days usually get the big contracts, since they are the highest in demand. There will be a point when the Jags, Jets, etc. run out of money. That's when the value deals will start popping up. Many guys will re-sign with their former teams, realizing the market wasn't as great as they hoped for.

Quick question... Let's say Beane decided to make a BIG move for an edge rusher in 2021. He either spends big money on a top free agent (J.J. Watt, Carl Lawson, Trey Hendrickson, Carlos Dunlap), or makes the mid-season trade to get Von Miller. Can you say without question that one of those guys would have made the difference in the Divisional Playoff game?

Beane's plan is to keep our Super Bowl window open as long as possible. By not going nuts in free agency, he can field a consistently competitive team for 10-15 years. The Rams strategy is different. They are fine with trading future picks for one-year rentals, and making big money splashes. Their window will be gone in under 5 years (probably less than that). Then they will pretty much need to rebuild. Not everyone agrees with Beane's strategy. But it's not going to change, so you might as well get used to it.

Impossible to make a judgment after (roughly) 48 hours. We all know that Brandon Beane does not believe in overspending and going crazy in Free Agency. The only exception was in 2019, when he had tons of cap space and most of his core players were on rookie contracts. Now that he's built the foundation of the roster, Bean's strategy is to: A) Build primarily through the draft B) Re-sign our own core players In free agency, he tries to find bargains at our biggest need positions. Not to land the biggest named guys available. He obviously does his due-diligence with those guys and makes offers. But if it becomes a bidding war with a bottom-feeder with tons of cap space, you can pretty much forget it. He simply moves on. Last year, Beane took a bunch of heat for doing "nothing" in free agency. Personally, I don't think our struggles were due to a lack of big FA signings. Maybe the team was more inconsistent week to week, but I would argue that going into the postseason the 2021 Bills had a better shot at winning the Super Bowl than in 2020. And we are expected to be a Super Bowl favorite again in 2022. Whether Beane's strategy succeeds or fails will depend on his draft picks. He invested highly in AJ Epenesa, Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham... primarily because he knew they probably wouldn't have the cap space to land a big name. Let's see how those guys work out.

Isaiah McKenzie has never really gotten enough consistent offensive snaps to see what he's capable of. For the most part, it's been a gadget play here and there. I do know that against New England last year (2021) and the last game against Miami in 2020, he was pretty much uncoverable. Last year was also his first year as a returner. So he still has room for growth and improvement.

Every GM misses. Just like every QB has incompletions, every lineman misses blocks, every receiver has drops, etc. It's ridiculous to nitpick every single move that does not work out. The only real question is whether Brandon Beane is better than other NFL executives. If you cannot answer that question with an emphatic YES, then I will question your football IQ. The results speak for themselves. Before Beane/McDermott came along, the Bills were stuck in a 20 year cycle of mostly 6-7 win seasons. Since they took over, the team has made the playoffs 4 of 5 seasons, with the only miss coming with a rookie QB at the helm. They made the AFC Championship in 2020, were a coin flip away from going back in 2021 and are once again among the favorites for winning the Super Bowl in 2022. From the start, Beane/McDermott said they wanted to build primarily through the draft. Outside of rare occasions, they are not going to make a big splash in free agency. They are going to fill holes with mostly bargain guys, then develop draft picks to become the new cores of the team. And you really can't judge whether a pick is a bust or not, until at least Year 3. That's how long it took to get returns on Ed Oliver and Dawson Knox, and now they are key players on the roster. This regime has invested A LOT in the D-Line with draft picks. The plan was for them to play behind Jerry Hughes/Mario Addison for the first year or two. Let's see how this season plays out before we judge AJ Epenesa, Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham.

Obada's contract was a good deal last year. He was a solid role player, who did OK in our edge rusher rotation. If he wants a higher salary and more years, let someone like Jacksonville sign him. Beane can easily replace his production with another DE at around the same price we paid last year.

Gotcha. I was curious where that number came from. I wouldn't really consider Matt Breida a hole. He was 3rd on the roster and inactive most of the season. Jon Feliciano, Ike Boettger and Ryan Bates were basically one position. We don't need to replace each individually. Cole Beasley, Tommy Sweeney, Cody Ford, Reggie Gilliam, Star Lotulelei and Tyler Matakevich are still under contract. If we get rid of those guys, it will be to either gain more cap space or to add more draft picks.

Excellent post. If you look season by season, the team with the best roster doesn't always win the Super Bowl. Too many other factors come into play. Especially in the playoffs, when a single mistake can lose a game. Once you get to the Divisional/Final 8 and Championship/Final 4 rounds, the teams are very even. It often comes down to matchups, injuries, execution and even a bit of luck. The Rams were not the best team in the NFL, and could have easily been eliminated by the Bucs or the 49ers. The Bengals were not the best team in the AFC, and barely scraped out all three playoff wins. Honestly, a team's primary goal should be fielding a Top 5-7 team and winning their division. (We did that). Hopefully seeding works out where they get multiple home playoff games, and you go into the postseason healthy and playing well. Then cross your fingers that all of the chips fall right over the next 3-4 weeks where they can pull it all out. Better communication on a kickoff, and/or calling heads on the coin flip, and this season could have been totally different. Yes, there are absolutely places the Bills can improve. But even if Beane manages to upgrade all of those spots, it will by no means guarantee them a championship next season.

I'm curious. How did you come to the number that we need to fill 14-19 holes? Are you counting third stringers and practice squad guys too? I don't think you can really count those guys as "holes" since they can usually be filled with undrafted free agents and guys making the league minimum. It's nowhere near as bad as you are making it sound. In terms of starters, the Bills basically went into free agency needing: WR to replace Emmanuel Sanders (although we likely see more playing time for Gabe Davis) OG to replace Jon Feliciano/Ryan Bates/Ike Boettger DE to replace Jerry Hughes/Mario Addison DT to replace Harrison Phillips CB to replace Levi Wallace If you want to add our key backups: QB to replace Mitch Trubisky Gadget WR to replace Isaiah McKenzie LB to replace AJ Klein You can probably also include: WR to replace Cole Beasley, assuming he does get traded TE2, since many believe we are going to play more 12 and 22 personnel. That gave us about 10 true holes going into free agency. In the first 24 hours, Brandon Beane has already re-signed McKenzie and tendered Ryan Bates. He's also addressed the DT position with DaQuan Jones and Tim Settle. That takes us down to only seven spots. I would note that if Beasley does get traded, it opens up cap space and likely means more playing time for McKenzie. So not necessarily a hole either. He also basically swapped the other guard position by releasing Darryl Williams and signing Roger Saffold (probably an upgrade).

The league year doesn't start until Wednesday afternoon. Today is supposed to be the first official day GMs can discuss contracts with agents. Even if a deal is announced publicly, it will not officially go against the cap for a few more days. So we have plenty of time to restructure contracts or cut players, depending on exactly how much we need.

As many have said, I worry the most about Miami making a move to secure an elite QB. (Rodgers, Wilson, Watson). Our first concern should be the AFC East. I actually think it COULD potentially benefit the Bills if one of those QBs goes to the AFC West. Rodgers vs. Mahomes vs. Herbert would be a dogfight for the division. More losses means less chance at the #1 seed.

I agree. You can't judge a defense on a single game. Certainly not a single series (no matter how poorly it was done). You are right. McDermott doesn't use the same gameplan every game, per se. But he does have HIS system, and doesn't deviate too far from it week-to-week. Josh Allen is the achilles-heel for a Belichick defense. Pure and simple. The Pats are built on game planning and preparation. After that game (and the one a few weeks before), film showed that numerous times Belichick called the perfect play... only for Allen to break away from the pocket anyway and make a huge play. You can't expect to dominate every opponent. But more can be done to match-up better against a wider variety of opponents.

Never said I wished for Rex Ryan, or anything close to him. Not sure where you got that. In fact, I said that I don't believe we need an overhaul or drastic change on defense. McDermott/Frazier's scheme is probably fine against 75-80% of the opponents we face. But when we face a powerful/run-first team (Indianapolis, Tennessee, New England), we may need the ability to go bigger in the Front 7. When we face a QB that picks-apart zone coverage, we may need the ability to mix in some man-coverage to keep them guessing. There also may be times that we need to adjust and call for more blitzing.

That is not how all defenses operate. Some defenses (such as the one Rex Ryan had before McDermott) operate on aggression, and trying to force mistakes. His philosophy was the complete opposite. Lots of blitzing and chaos. Leaving cornerbacks on an island in man coverage. Etc.

If the gameplan requires us to move towards more man coverage, we don't have the personnel to do that. If the gameplan requires us to go heavier up-front, we don't really have the personnel to do that either.

Our base defense is Nickel. Which makes us small right off the bat. Taron Johnson is basically our strong-side linebacker. We don't really have a huge 0-Tech nose tackle. Which granted, isn't always typical for 4-3 defenses. But it would be nice carrying one for some matchups. At 1-Tech, Star Lotulelei seemed to do a good job occupying blockers in the past, but really fell off this season. Harrison Phillips was better, but I still don't see him as a really huge help in stuffing the run. Edmonds may not be physically small, but his game isn't really about stuffing the run between the tackles. It's more about covering large chunks of the middle zone in the pass game, and running sideline to sideline. Very similar with Milano. Again. I'm not complaining about our defense. It's designed this way for a purpose. It would just be nice if we added some pieces that allowed us to change things up, especially when we go up against teams like Indianapolis and Tennessee.

Every team has a different answer. That is my point. I definitely don't think man-coverage is a good plan against Tyreek Hill. Nor is it smart to blitz a lot. But you can still mix in a good amount of man coverage against other players on the Chiefs offense. Send the occasional surprise blitz. At least keep them guessing. What the Bills do... they do extremely well. It's just that some opponents require a change-up pitch, and we don't seem to have the players to accomplish that.

Bend-Don't-Break means: 1. Don't get beat over the top with big pass plays 2. Keep completions in front of the defenders 3. Be solid at tackling, and prevent Yards After the Catch 4. Force the offense to be patient and go on long drives in order to score It does not mean allowing 400-500 yards per game, and hoping to hold teams to field goals. If this kind of defense is run well, it can still produce turnovers and prevent yards/points.

The staff has gotten strong production out of guys like Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson and EJ Gaines. But none of those guys have come close to the All-Pro/Pro-Bowl level we get from Tre White... who was a 1st Round Pick. There is a lot of CB talent in this draft, so I agree we could wait and address it later. But I think a versatile CB who could play both zone/man would push this team over the top.

Over the course of the season (and especially since the divisional playoff game), I've seen lots of complaining about the defense. Some of the most common claims: The Bills defense was a "paper tiger" who were really below average and didn't deserve to be the NFL's #1 unit in points/yards. The players are "soft" and cannot stop any decent teams. Especially those with good QBs. We don't have any "elite" players, and we need to trade multiple #1 Picks to obtain one. (In other words, we need to copy the Rams blueprint). Then you have the people calling for us to fire Sean McDermott and/or Leslie Frazier. The cries to cut Tremaine Edmunds and replace most of the D-Line. Personally, I don't buy any of this. We don't need to a complete overhaul. We don't need to make a HUGE splash. What the Defense truly lacks... is VERSATILITY. This team has basically been running the SAME scheme for 5 seasons. Four man pass rush. Very little blitzing. Zone coverage. Strong tackling after the catch. Bend-but-don't-break philosophy. Brandon Beane has supplied the coaching staff with plenty of talent to run the McDermott/Frazier scheme. Everyone on the roster is a strong fit. The players know the system well, and are EXCELLENT at running it. They are VERY fundamentally strong. In fact, I think it could be argued that our defensive players peaked in many ways during 2021. The problem is... the McDermott/Frazier scheme is NOT the best gameplan for stopping EVERY SINGLE team. Which is why we have a tendency to absolutely dominate some opponents, and then struggle badly against others. Our front 7 is generally undersized (partially by design). Which means we often struggle against physical O-Lines and strong running teams. Some QBs are patient and can pick zone coverage apart. Especially when they are expecting to see it all-day. I also believe the main reason our defense has good "pressure stats" each year, but lack actual sacks - is because every QB/Offensive Coordinator plans short and quick passes against us. A split second of hesitation (if they weren't sure what the Bills were coming with) would almost certainly result in more QB sacks. One of the reasons Bill Belichick has fielded a great Defense consistently (even without elite star power), is his ability to adapt and change depending on opponent. Our current roster simply does not have the versatility to make those kind of changes week-to-week. McDermott can focus on fundamentals, gap-control, staying mentally tough, etc. But it's just a simple fact that Buffalo's defense does not match up well against some opponents (Indianapolis was probably the best example of this). To conquer the NFL playoffs and win the Super Bowl, we can't have games like Kansas City. In my opinion, adding some versatility should be Beane's primary focus this offseason: We need to have a talented space-eater (0 or 1-Tech Nose Tackle) who can occupy blockers when we face run-first teams We need 1-2 cornerbacks who can switch between man/zone coverage as-needed Bottom line. There is no need to make drastic changes. Just get the pieces needed to switch things up when needed.