mjt328

MVP voters are going to be swayed heavily by what happens during the final month of the season. With a strong finish, I could definitely see Josh Allen still walking away with this thing. No matter what anyone says, Jalen Hurts will absolutely drift behind in peoples minds if he ends up missing the final three games (which sounds entirely possible). His overall yards/touchdowns are already a little below the other top candidates, and this injury could increase that spread. If the Eagles lose 1-2 games, it knocks a little luster off that team's season (even if he's not actually playing). If they win without him, it decreases the appearance of his value to the team. Lose-Lose situation. Patrick Mahomes still has the slight statistical edge over Allen in yards/touchdowns. If we count passing + rushing, he's only ahead by 247 yards and 2 scores. A few weeks ago, the big knock on Allen was interceptions. They are now equal in that category. The Bills won the head-to-head matchup and are currently the #1 seed in the AFC, ahead of the Chiefs. Team success is always a major factor in MVP voting. In my opinion, this is what Allen needs in order to secure the MVP award: - The Bills finish the season 3-0, securing the #1 seed (while also giving him another win over a top QB in Joe Burrow) - Flashy scoring stats. I'm thinking 9-10 more touchdowns (giving him 45 overall), and hopefully no more INTs. Maybe 800-900 more combined yards. - Have an MVP-quality game against the Bengals, with everyone in the country watching. FYI - Allen is also exactly 1000 yards away from the current NFL record for combined passing/rushing yards. Breaking any record is a significant achievement that would help in winning the MVP. It's within striking distance for both Allen and Mahomes.

When they have the all right pieces in place, this defense is Top 5 in the NFL easy. When 1-2 guys are injured, the coaches can usually scheme around the loss and still put together good defensive performances. When multiple starters are constantly going in-and-out of the lineup, there are going to be break-downs. Plain and simple. You can't expect the coaching staff to make massive systematic changes at this point. The pride of Sean McDermott/Leslie Frazier has always been the secondary. It has been uncharacteristically average this season. One major reason has been the loss of Micah Hyde. It wasn't until Thanksgiving that Tre White got on the field, and this was probably the first game we saw flashes of the old All-Pro version. The other corner spot has been mostly handled by rookies. Even Jordan Poyer missed a couple games. Linebacker play has been absolutely essential to this defense. Our roughest stretch of the season came when Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano were missing time. At one point we were without both at the same time. Then you have the D-Line, which operates best with 4 guys getting pressure. They looked the part early in the season. Then the injury bug bit that unit. Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips have missed significant time. And of course the ACL tear for Von Miller. Unfortunately, I don't think we can count on the defensive side to carry us in the playoffs. At some point, we are going to get into a shoot-out (or a few). If the Bills are going to the Super Bowl, this offense needs to be consistently strong and mistake-free.

Yes, I'm obviously making a lot of assumptions. But the way things are playing out, the Wild Card teams are going to be tougher than usual and the #4 seed is going to be way softer than usual (especially if it's the Titans and Ryan Tannehill is out).

One of my favorite exercises this time of year is playing with the ESPN playoff simulator, and looking at various hypothetical seeding scenarios. With each passing week, it's becoming very clear. Whoever gets the #1 seed in the AFC is going to have a major advantage over everyone else. Even more than compared to previous seasons. In my opinion, the three most-likely Wild Card teams are going to be some ranked combination of Miami, Los Angeles and Baltimore. We already know after two games how difficult the Dolphins are going to be to knock-out. The Chargers can be a totally different team with Keenan Allen/Mike Williams both on the field. The Ravens are expected to get Lamar Jackson back this week, which makes them dangerous again. The #1 seed of course gets a bye during this round, while the other seeds get a very difficult matchup with one of these three teams. Now let's say the home teams each somehow escape with a victory in the first round. In my scenario, the #2 seed will then matchup against the Bengals. The #1 seed gets the winner of the AFC South, which looks like a toss-up between the Titans and Jaguars. Of course, the #1 seed would then play at home in the AFC Championship.

The game was never important. It was all about getting the honor of being selected. The NFL ruined that too, when they allowed the fans to make the selections and it became an uneducated popularity contest. The Bills are the #1 seed and currently have NO PLAYERS in the Top 5 at ANY POSITION. Not Josh Allen. Not Stefon Diggs. Not Jordan Poyer. Not Von Miller. In fact, if you go on the NFL.com app, you can no longer even vote for Miller (since he got injured) since they only put the current starters on the list. The NFL also give an unfair advantage to certain players, depending on preferred statistics. For instance, running backs are placed in order by total rushing yards. This hurts backs who have a large share of receiving yards or more touchdowns.

By the Packers game, the Bills had been struggling in the Red Zone for over a month. I think the frustration finally boiled over, and Josh Allen started pressing too hard and throwing into coverage. During that 3-game stretch, Allen really wasn't turning the ball over between the 20s. Just interceptions in tjhe Red Zone. The only full game he really struggled entirely was the Jets game, which he repeated this last week (telling me it's the defense he's facing).

If you look closer, the offense actually hasn't been playing consistently good since Week 2. It started in Miami with mostly Red Zone problems, and drive killing drops. They also struggled to move the ball much of the first half against both the Ravens and the Chiefs. Since that point, they have had some nice stretches and had some decent stats on paper. But to any fan who watches this team weekly, it's obvious that something hasn't been quite right. Things are coming in short bursts, and not from a steady rhythm. My belief is that teams are focused on taking away the deep shots from our offense, and we are struggling to get reliable play from the short passing game. For three seasons, this team got a lot of production from the slot. With Jameson Crowder hurt, Isaiah McKenzie dropping passes and Khalil Shakir pretty much invisible as a rookie, we no longer have the someone who can get the easy 4-5 yards over the middle. On top of that, Gabe Davis has proven to be a deep threat with questionable hands, and not much else. Dawson Knox has been used more as a blocker this season, and leaking out into the flats. He doesn't seem to get a lot of work from the slot either. They have gotten the backs (mostly James Cook) involved in the passing game somewhat, but not consistently. There is a reason this team re-signed Cole Beasley. It may be the key piece we've been missing.

I think that ship sailed last week. He's probably not going to be ready this season. The Cowboys signed T.Y. Hilton yesterday too.

Many fans are frustrated, because this Bills team (at least since the bye) simply does not pass the eye test. Regardless of what the standings and statistics say. Yeah, the Bills should still be able to win on Saturday and walk away with the AFC East again (because the Dolphins don't pass the eye test either). But it's really hard to imagine this team playing like they have since Green Bay, and having a successful journey to the Super Bowl. Lots of people are already celebrating us controlling our own destiny, and are almost forgetting a hugely difficult game coming up in Cincinnati that could totally derail the chance of getting homefield. Personally, I think we are should be underdogs in that matchup. Our corners are going to have their hands full with Chase/Higgins, and trying to tackle their backs. And with the way our offensive weapons (outside of Stefon Diggs) are struggling, I'm skeptical we can keep up for four quarters. And I certainly wouldn't bank on Kansas City losing to anyone else on their schedule. Maybe we get hot at the right time (just like last season). But right now, I think the Bills would struggle badly to beat the Chiefs or Bengals in the AFC. And if they made the Super Bowl, they would have a really rough time with the Eagles, 49ers and probably Cowboys.

The frustration is not just the drops. It's that other receivers seem to make incredible contested catches against us weekly (Dane Jackson has been regularly abused). Meanwhile, our WRs never seem to make the difficult plays and are also blowing way too many of the easy ones.

Depends. Maybe all these tough wins will help build character once the postseason comes around. Maybe all these tough wins are a warning sign the team isn't as good as everyone figured coming into 2022. This is the big debate going on within Bills Mafia right now. Statistically, the Bills have a better record at this point than in 2021 (by three games), despite tons of injuries and an infinitely tougher schedule. Last year's team also slumped badly in the middle of the season. The big difference is the 2021 Bills always failed to win the close games (particularly Jacksonville, New England and Tampa Bay), while this team is barely squeaking them out. Last year, the Bills also seemed to hit their stride in mid-December. They won their last 4 games by double-digits, and then destroyed the Patriots in the Wild Card round. It has yet to be seen if THIS team can do the same thing. Most fans have pretty short memories. If the offense can turn things up in the final month, there will be a lot less worries entering the playoffs. As it stands, I'm not sure this squad has the offensive firepower or secondary to go into Cincinnati and beat the Bengals. And one more loss basically puts us in the exact same position as last year.

I certainly wouldn't say it's a "bizarre take." It's long been known that certain "stars" in each league get more preference in referee calls. Have you ever heard of the Jordan Rules in the NBA? Lots of NFL players have stated that refs make calls in Tom Brady's favor. And Cam Newton once stated that a ref told him to his face, that he wasn't old enough to get a roughing call. I'll even admit that Josh Allen gets more calls in his favor since becoming one of the league's premier players, and way more than previous Bills quarterbacks. My observance (in the 4-5 Jets games I've watched this season) is that Sauce Gardner has been getting away with contact that would be called PI in 99% of other circumstances. The question is why. Maybe it's just a coincidence. Maybe he's just gotten lucky and drawn refs who are more reluctant to throw flags. I don't know. But if the NFL is telling refs to protect star QBs (and you absolutely know they are...), then I wouldn't put it past them pushing for a rookie CB to get some favorable calls to increase his star-potential in a big market.

If you watch the various football shows, the media heads have been talking all season about how GREAT it is for the New York teams (Jets and Giants) to be playing well. Not because the fans have been suffering long and deserve some success. Just because it's New York City. They aren't even trying to hide it. Disgusting as it is, there is a clear bias for certain franchises. Especially those in big markets. Early in the season, the Jets didn't have many marketable players. Their starting QB was terrible. Their rookie RB went down with a season-ending injury. Their rookie WR wasn't getting the ball much. Most of the good players were on defense. Perfect opportunity to push "the next Revis" who already comes into the NFL with a cool nickname. Honestly, I've never seen a player (especially a rookie) get ignored on clear pass interference so often. Doesn't turn around. Hands in the face/chest of the receiver. No flag. And I'm not the only fan who notices it. There is a clear push to turn Sauce Gardner into a big name.

This. Much of Von Miller's current game is setting-up blockers for later in the game, and saving his best moves for the right moment. At his age, we really shouldn't have expected 15-20 sacks or weekly dominance. What we saw in the Chiefs game was exactly why he was signed. There were 2-3 moments that we absolutely needed a play from the defense, and each time he got right past the OT and was right in Patrick Mahomes face. That was totally missing in the AFC Divisional Playoff. No way around the truth. This is another crushing injury to a team, that has suffered way too many this season. That doesn't mean the Bills are doomed. But it does mean we need players like Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa and Boogie Basham to start living up to their draft status. No more gradual development. Because if we aren't getting regular pressure from the D-Line in the playoffs, some of these teams are going to give us lots of trouble.

How about this stat... Peyton Manning once threw 7 touchdowns in a single game for the Broncos. Russell Wilson has 8 touchdowns all season.

Something has to be said for rest and mental focus. Especially when you have a team where injuries are one of the biggest issues. Look back to the 2020 championship game. By the time the Bills reached their matchup with Kansas City, they were physically and emotionally spent. You could see it on their faces. I think they did a better job pacing themselves last year, but just couldn't finish the job at the end of the game. Good for the Bengals putting in the extra work, and maybe it works for them. But that doesn't mean it's the answer for this team too.

Brandon Beane is bold. But he isn't reckless. I can't see him getting into a bidding war for OBJ's services, considering that a long-term deal would probably cost us another valuable (current) player. Especially if Beane isn't VERY confident in his ability to produce this year. And how can he be confident in OBJ's physical ability, if he isn't working out for teams? This season, we saw what life is like without Jordan Poyer. We saw what life is like without Tremaine Edmunds. Both are becoming must-signs. Then we have Ed Oliver reaching his 5th-Year-Option. His primary backup Jordan Phillips is also a free agent. Not to mention valuable pieces like Devin Singletary, Shaq Lawson, Rodger Saffold, Dane Jackson, etc. I think we would all sadly trade one of these guys, if we knew it greatly increased our chances at winning the Super Bowl in February. But if the choice is between keeping Poyer/Edmunds/Oliver or having OBJ for NEXT year, then I'm re-signing our current talent.

Great week of football. Everything fell the right way for the Bills. Five weeks left, and Buffalo controls it's own destiny. However, the upcoming schedule will not be easy. They face three good teams currently in position to make the playoffs (Jets, Dolphins, Bengals), and a fourth still in the hunt (Patriots). Compare that to the cakewalk remaining for the Chiefs, who get three of the worst teams in the entire NFL (Texans and the Broncos twice), along with the Raiders and Seahawks. The odds-makers still think Kansas City has the edge in getting homefield advantage. On a positive note, the team finally appears to be getting healthier. They seem to have gotten over yet another frustrating mid-season lull. We are now in the final home-stretch. Hopefully the Bills can keep their heads-down, and finish STRONG. One week at a time. Five wins. Week off. Three more wins. Trophy.

100%. I think defensive coordinators hate dedicating so many resources and changing up their normal scheme to cover a Tight End. Most just pick their best covering safety or linebacker. Some may even use a corner. Very few get physical with him or use double-coverage. Last week the Rams tried just covering him 1-on-1 with Jalen Ramsey, and it was embarrassing. Travis Kelce needs to be treated like a top WR. Jammed at the line, and bracketed with additional safety help over the top. If you wouldn't use a coverage scheme to try stopping Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson, etc., then it wont' work against Kelce either.

Weeks 1-2, we were clicking on all cylinders. Both sides of the ball. Week 3 the injuries started. The defense wasn't quite as dominant. The offense started getting predictable and playing streaky. After the bye, I think things started catching up to us. First the defense started getting gashed by the run (Packers). When we started focusing more on stopping the rush, the pass defense started failing (Vikings). On the other side, our opponents began catching up to Ken Dorsey's schemes. In turn, Josh Allen was clearly forcing the ball and trying to do too much, leading to turnovers. Hopefully last night was a sign of the Bills turning the corner. The defense is almost healthy, and looked rejuvenated. Dorsey threw some nice wrinkles and had the Patriots off balance. Allen was a little more careful with the ball (still some work here).

Over the last month, there has been a lot of infighting around Bills Mafia. Lots of fans are frustrated and disappointed at this team's performance. Other fans are getting mad, saying the concerns are overblown and this team is still in very good shape. Well, you can start to see that outsiders are starting to notice too. They are starting to realize this team just may have been overrated at the start of the season, and we may not be looking at a Super Bowl season (and maybe not even a deep playoff run) after all. The monster breakout season for Gabe Davis has been extremely underwhelming. To say the least. For various reasons, Dawson Knox doesn't seem to be making a big impact this year. Also disappointing. Production from the slot has not matched previous years. Our running game remains a complimentary attack, and not something that can be relied on week to week. The O-Line is still Dion Dawkins, Mitch Morse and some other questionable pieces. Not to mention a rookie OC who seems totally outmatched and lost.

Exactly what I was going to say. Fans tend to think of injuries/depth as a simple 1-player swap out. For instance, Dane Jackson stepping into a starting role with Tre White injured. Or Damar Hamlin stepping into the Free Safety role when Micah Hyde went down. But they don't always account for the domino effect it causes on everyone else, especially when coaches need to shift gameplans to cover-up the new weak points. Hamlin has done an admirable job of filling-in since Week 2. But he clearly isn't the caliber player as Hyde (at least not yet), who was an All-Pro in 2021. Which is forcing Taron Johnson to step outside his own comfort zone. That's definitely how it feels. I've said the same thing. Hope we are wrong. The Bills are supposed to have everyone (on defense) back tomorrow night, except Von Miller and Micah Hyde. Miller said he may be back for the Jets game, and there seems to be growing optimism that Hyde will return by playoff time.

They won, so it must be good luck. Maybe it can become their new mascot, and they can replace that dumb elf at mid-field. A skunk actually fits the franchise very well.

Fair or not... the expectations for the 2022 Buffalo Bills were probably higher than any other point in franchise history. Coming into this season, Vegas had us as hands-down Super Bowl favorites. Most of the media personalities also picked us to win it. I don't recall that even happening during the 90s (when teams like the 49ers and Cowboys were considered better). Fans who have been waiting 30, 40, 50+ years for a championship, spent the entire offseason building themselves up and saying "THIS IS OUR YEAR." At this point, the team simply has not lived up to those high expectations. Since the blowout in Tennessee, the team has been on a clear and obvious decline: - First the offense started looking streaky and sloppy, leading to the Week 3 loss in Miami. Although they are still putting decent points on the board, the fact remains: The Bills haven't had 4 quarters of strong offense since the Titans game. Even against the Steelers, the Bills only scored once in the second half. - Since the bye, the defense has struggled terribly. They went from a strength to a liability. It started with run defense, and has bled over to us getting torched in the secondary. We almost let the Packers back into the game. Lost two straight to the Jets and Vikings. And then barely scraped out wins against the Browns and Lions. Maybe the problem is injuries. Maybe it's player talent. Maybe it's coaching. The fact remains, this team needs to turn things around ASAP. The next three games will likely determine our season. If we get the Bills from Weeks 8-12, our best bet will be a Wild Card spot.

I'm not boasting until the Bills take care of business over the next three weeks.