mjt328

When you have a young/superstar QB like Josh Allen and Super Bowl hopes, then drafting another QB before Day 3 is really a waste. We only need a backup QB in the event Allen gets injured. And if that happens, I don't want an unproven rookie coming off the bench. I want a veteran who can limit mistakes and avoid a losing streak while he recovers. Guys like Mitch Trubisky and Case Keenum are the way to go. Project QBs are really for teams without a franchise guy... or teams with one nearing the end of their career.

Much is going to depend on free agency (not just for us, but also our opponents). But my initial guess by looking at the schedule is 10-7.

The AFC East had a Hall of Fame quarterback (Dan Marino) and the coach with the most wins all-time (Don Shula). The rest of the division was bad. But it wasn't the total walk-over the Pats got for almost two decades.

The AFC East was an absolutely HUGE reason. None of the other teams had a franchise QB (much less an elite one) during the entire length of the Patriots championship run. They pretty much had a guaranteed Division title every single season. And with 5-6 easy wins, it was much easier for them to get a bye in the first round (back when they had two). New England rarely ran into another elite QB (Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers) until the Championship round. While most teams fell into the salary cap and age issue, the Patriots purposely built their roster to get around that pitfall. The playmakers on New England were generally the Tight End and Slot Receiver... two of the lowest paid positions in the NFL. O-Line was always a priority in the draft. They drafted LOTS of running backs and cycled through them constantly, so they never had to pay one big bucks. Outside of Randy Moss, they never really splurged on a flashy outside receiver either. On defense, Bill Belichick looked for bargains and often let his stars walk. Then he would build a defense AROUND the talents/skills he had on the roster, instead of splurging on free agents to fit his scheme. Mix all that with a Hall of Fame QB who seemingly never aged, and was willing to accept a contract well below market value.

All this finger-pointing on WHY the Bills lost that game... I think there are multiple reasons, and all have some truth to them. It's probably true that our locker room was emotionally exhausted. Everyone points to the "adversity" they faced during the season with injuries, weather and Damar Hamlin. But a lot of pressure also comes with being the Week 1 Super Bowl favorite as well. What Rodger Saffold says doesn't make them mentally weak. It's just a reality of how this team was overwhelmed by non-football things this season. It's also true that our performance was negatively impacted by season-ending injuries to Von Miller and Micah Hyde. Both are All-Pro talents, and you can't just replace them in the lineup. We knew that when each guy went down. And although the Bills were mostly healthy otherwise, the D-Line was pretty banged up. We also badly missed Daquon Jones for that game. Not to mention, Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips playing through tough injuries. That does NOT let the coaching staff off the hook for having such a bland and uncreative gameplan, against one of the league's premier offenses. One game may be a fluke. Two games may be a coincidence. But after three straight years of this defense getting blasted in the playoffs, it's clear something is wrong at the top. They better figure something out in the offseason to change things up, or it's going to happen again next year. It also doesn't let Brandon Beane off the hook for his lackluster drafts recently. All GMs make mistakes. But when those mistakes start stockpiling, they deserve to be criticized for them. The condition our offensive and defensive lines are currently in... that falls on his plate. We know that he can build a roster from the ground-up, when he's got plenty of cap space and early draft picks. But can he maintain a competitive team when we have neither?

As of today, the Bills are the #3 team in the AFC. I would consider them top-tier in the AFC, but a slight step behind the Chiefs and Bengals. The biggest problem for the Bills is moving-forward. It's going to take a brilliant offseason from Brandon Beane for us to just keep pace. Much less take the steps needed to pass those teams. Not to mention other young rosters (Jets, Jaguars) who are clearly on the rise. Just looking at the defense... They have two major free agents (Jordan Poyer and Tremaine Edmunds) who they really can't afford to bring back. They have two key players coming back from serious injuries (Micah Hyde and Von Miller), who may never be the same. Their best defensive player over the past 4-5 years (Tre White) came back a step slower, and it's fair to question if he ever returns to form. The Pro Bowl breakout season we expected from a former Top 10 pick (Ed Oliver) never materialized. Other early picks (AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham) have struggled to make an impact. Our top picks from last season (Kaiir Elam, Terrel Bernard) don't appear to be fits in our defensive scheme. On offense... The O-Line has been a glaring weakness for years now. We don't have cap space to fix it. None of our weapons are a legitimate threat for opposing defenses (outside of Stefon Diggs). We don't have the cap space to fix it. The Eagles are a good team. Very well balanced and very well coached. They haven't been tested much this season, but in the end it might not matter.

There are two ways to win in the NFL: 1. Have more talent than your opponent 2. Have a better gameplan than your opponent The problem the Bills have is very simple... They always rely on #1. Our coaching staff is great at teaching fundamentals. Preparation. Knowing your assignment. Being in the right place on the field. The scheme is pretty basic and doesn't change much from week-to-week, season-to-season. Their philosophy is that if the team executes at a high level and avoids mistakes, they should walk out of the game with a victory. That strategy has worked pretty well over the course of a 17-game season, because the Bills do have a pretty talented roster. But once you hit the playoffs, the talent gap shrinks. The Bills don't have a significantly more talented roster than Kansas City or Cincinnati. Even our superstar quarterback really gives us no advantage over the other team. We can't just line up on the ball and execute. At that point, we MUST use specific strategies to attack our opponent's tendencies and weaknesses. You could see it clearly yesterday. The Chiefs did everything in their power to confuse and overwhelm the Bengals inexperienced O-Line. They jammed the receivers, to make sure Joe Burrow didn't have quick/easy throws and HAD to stand in the pocket. It didn't completely shut him down, but it did enough to kill several drives and help them win the game. The Bills (of course) just lined up 4 rushers most of the game, asked them to beat the guy across from them in 2 seconds, and then gave a 10 yard cushion to the receivers.

All-Pro caliber: Tre White Matt Milano Josh Allen Pro-Bowl caliber: Tremaine Edmunds

More than one thing can be true. Gabe Davis had a chance to grab ahold of the #2 spot, and literally watched it slip through his hands. He's a solid NFL receiver. But we need someone more consistent opposite Stefon Diggs. That person is probably not John Brown anymore. Isaiah McKenzie got the chance to be more than a gadget guy, and was not reliable enough to handle the slot. We could have replaced him with Jamison Crowder, but he got hurt and is already a free agent. Cole Beasley showed flashes, but I'm not sure he can handle an entire season anymore. You can see potential in Khalil Shakir, but I think we just saw the risk of counting on an inexperienced player to fill a big starting role. Ken Dorsey and Brandon Beane need to sit-down for several meetings, and figure out the identity of this offense moving forward. Our front office acquired a bunch of short-range options (Crowder, OJ Howard, James Cook, Shakir, Nyheim Hines, Beasley) and then watched the Offensive Coordinator design everything to attack downfield. Either we need to adjust the scheme to take advantage of these players, or we need to obtain weapons that fit a downfield attack.

The Bills championship window has been open for 3 years now, and each year has shown the exact same trend: 1. Both the offense and defense rank Top 5 in the NFL during the regular season 2. Facing an elite QB in the playoffs, the defense totally crumbles to pieces and lets up 30+ points (happened all three years) 3. The offense eventually slumps in the postseason due to poor blocking (happened in two of three years) These are the hills that we must get over, in order to win the Super Bowl. Thus far, the front office has seen our pass rush as the solution. That's why we've poured so many resources into the D-Line. After the first Kansas City loss, we drafted Groot/Boogie in the first two rounds. After the second, we signed Von Miller. Neither of these plans worked, and honestly I think our pass rush was worse against Cincinnati than either of the previous two games. It's time to go the other route, and work on improving the O-Line. If we continue to pour resources into the defense and they continue to fail us, then we need to give the offense an opportunity. Let them just try to outscore the opposition. Fix the pass blocking and add another downfield weapon, and I think we can score 30-35 against the best teams in the league. Besides, if Josh Allen is the most important piece on the team, we need to ensure he stays healthy.

I'm a defense guy. But after the last few seasons, I'm coming to agree. Just focus on building the offense. We've had a Top 5 defense for each of the last 4 seasons. Yet they have gotten absolutely destroyed in our final losses over the last 3 postseasons. Their only "good" performance saw them choke away a 16 point lead in the second half. If this is what happens with a Top 5 defense against top quarterbacks, it's absolutely worthless to invest resources into that side of the ball.

The problem is not age. The problem absolutely is his ACL injury. To answer your question, you should probably give him another season to regain form. After this season, it should be pretty clear our coaches don't want their CBs to play much press-man coverage. That's why Elam struggled to get on the field. Because he really doesn't fit their scheme and system. White doesn't limit what they can do. Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier do that to themselves. They aren't moving Johnson. My guess is that Poyer walks. They may add a free agent, but it's also possible they plan on Micah Hyde and Damar Hamlin being the starters. Beane also mentioned that Christian Benford may get a look there next season.

Perfect example of the strange disconnect that (suddenly) happened this offseason between front-office and coaching staff. At the time, I figured Sean McDermott was requesting versatility to the defense. Bring in another body that lets us run a more conventional 4-3 on the occasion. Either that, or he needed a future replacement for Tremaine Edmunds. But the defense ran more Nickel than ever last year. And they never took Edmunds or Matt Milano off the field, so Bernard could get some development time. There is no way he can be seen as a potential replacement for Edmunds when he hardly got any snaps. If we don't re-sign Edmunds, we will still need to bring in another veteran. Most likely, Bernard continues to sit the bench for at least another year. And possible longer, considering that Milano has 4 more years on his contract, and Edmunds would probably get a 3-5 year deal.

Because the shelf-life of most NFL players is not long. You figure that most guys are drafted between 21-23 years-old, and it takes them about 2-3 seasons to reach their potential. It varies by position, but players then start declining around age 30. That means you are talking about roughly 4-7 years that you can expect guys to be at peak performance. Every season, you will need to cycle-out older players. Due to both declining skills and salary cap reasons. The only way to keep your team competitive (even with a franchise QB) is to draft well and keep the pipeline stocked with young players. When a Day 1-2 pick fails to pan-out, and throws a massive wrench in those plans. Missing on guys like Cody Ford, Zack Moss, Spencer Brown, AJ Epenesa and Boogie Basham hurts us really bad. Taking Terrell Bernard in the 3rd Round also seems like a massive waste, because he doesn't look ready to replace Tremaine Edmunds anytime soon.

This was not how everyone felt. Lots of people have been calling out the team's issues since at least October, and were told they were overreacting. Second, things change VERY quickly in the NFL. Just a year ago, the Rams, Titans, Packers and Buccaneers were among the half-dozen teams with a legit chance to win the Super Bowl. None of them had winning records this year. Just two years ago, the Eagles and Bengals finished in last place with 4 wins each. If the Bills had simply lost, I think people would be calling for changes. But Sunday's game exposed them as frauds, and revealed how bad our roster construction has actually been over the last few seasons.

I think you are going to be very disappointed next year. The Bills are setup to take a step back in 2023, and hopefully reload for another Super Bowl in 2-3 years. With the salary cap, we have a choice to either gut the defense this year OR address the issues on offense. They probably can't keep both Tremaine Edmunds and Jordan Poyer, and even keeping one will make it very difficult to fix the O-Line and receiver room. Von Miller will be lucky to return by mid-season, and may not return to his old self. Until that point, we get the D-Line we saw on Sunday (yuck). Teams can only stay competitive for long periods of time with good drafting. Our last three draft classes have been well below average, which means we don't have players ready to step into key roles when veteran free agents leave. Yeah, we still have Josh Allen. But the surrounding team is going to be inferior to other AFC rosters. And with the possible QBs that will be available this offseason (Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr), it's very possible the Jets/Patriots find a way to narrow that gap in our division too.

I've been a huge defender of Brandon Beane. But much of the responsibility for this mess falls on his shoulders. This regime's early drafts (2017-2018) were excellent and set the foundation for us to be one of the NFL's best teams. But his draft classes have slowly drifted backwards from that point. 2019 was solid, but produced no real difference makers. 2020 was pretty blah, and was only saved by the trade for Stefon Diggs. 2021 got us Groot and a bunch of nothing. Everyone we got in 2022 spent most of their rookie seasons sitting the bench. Before the season, there was an assumption the Bills had an extremely deep roster. In reality, our backups just hadn't been tested outside of the few times we saw them in the preseason. Injuries forced quite a few guys into action this year, and we found out they weren't as good as originally believed.

Micah Hyde was the first domino to fall. But his loss definitely wasn't the only reason this team fell short. There were multiple nagging issues that plagued this team all-season on both sides of the ball. The fact that we kept pulling out close wins caused lots of fans to gloss over the problems. By about Week 4-5 you could already tell that: 1. The O-Line was still a big problem 2. Gabe Davis was having trouble adapting to the #2 role 3. The slot WR position was going to be a liability 4. Ken Dorsey was struggling as a first-year play caller Tre White returning a step slower, and then losing Von Miller on Thanksgiving were probably the nails in the coffin. That killed our pass rush, in addition to us having big holes in the secondary. With that said... I'm don't think a 100% healthy Bills defense would have made it to the Super Bowl either. Sunday solidified that coaching is indeed a big problem for us in the postseason. Either philosophy needs to change, or somebody needs to go, for us to ever take the next step.

The postseason is different from the regular season. It might as well be a different sport. NFL history is littered with coaches who have great career W-L records, but fail miserably once January hits. Sean McDermott is quickly heading down that same road. His defenses are built to be safe, stop big plays, bend/don't break, and force the offense to make mistakes. Great plan for the 13-14 bad/mediocre QBs he faces every season. Never works against the elite passers left over every postseason. Sadly, this is one of the most overlooked trends in all of sports. Teams have a really tough time parting with "winning" coaches (such as Mike McCarthy), and don't understand why they can't seem to get over the hump.

I saw a thread on Twitter that I agree with completely. One of the reasons the current Bills regime found success (while others failed), is because the front office/coaching staff always seemed to be on the same page. Brandon Beane always seemed to understand how talent fit into the schemes his coaches were going to use. This allowed him to grab late-round gems, and not waste draft picks on guys who would never be used. All that pretty much flew out the window this season... Beane's big offensive additions in the offseason were Jamison Crowder, James Cook and Khalil Shakir. He also threw a nice contract at Dawson Knox. At the trade deadline, he also brought in Nyheim Hines. Tons of slot options, and all moves that would theoretically build up the short passing game. Then Ken Dorsey's offense is a non-stop downfield attack, which usually ignores the short/underneath stuff. Despite him having no long-speed at the position, and his biggest downfield threat being Gabe Davis. On defense, Beane spends a 1st Round pick on Kaiir Elam. The coaching staff clearly had no use for a man-corner, first playing him behind Christian Benford and then refusing to replace a struggling Dane Jackson. His third round pick was a linebacker, on a team that only plays Nickel and the starters get 100% of the snaps.

Many people seem blindsided by Sunday's loss. One of the reasons is because they (incorrectly) assume that Josh Allen gives us some otherworldly advantage over everyone else in the NFL. They listen to Tony Romo gush over our QB and are convinced that us eventually winning a ring with him under center is an absolute certainty. The problem is... Allen is (at best) an equal to Patrick Mahomes. An argument can certainly be made that Joe Burrow has now reached that level as well. Justin Herbert has the talent to get there. If Deshaun Watson returns to form, he's right there too. And that's not even mentioning the tremendous improvement we saw from Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence this season. When it comes to the AFC especially, Allen only puts us on an equal playing field as the other teams with elite/franchise QBs. Every single postseason is going to be a gauntlet through the names above. When we hit the playoffs, what sets apart the Buffalo Bills isn't going to be Allen, but the surrounding pieces. The coaching. The blocking. The weapons. The defense. Dan Marino never won a Super Bowl... not because he was a worse QB than Jim Kelly and John Elway... but because his TEAM wasn't good enough to get past those guys in the playoffs. You can say the same thing about Warren Moon (same era). Or Phillip Rivers, who always watched Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger from the couch.

That is not my intention. I will gladly point out all the areas I was dead-wrong in the offseason. - I was wrong that Ken Dorsey would be fine, and we wouldn't miss Brian Daboll. - I was wrong that Gabe Davis would slide into the #2 role with no problems. - I was wrong that Aaron Kromer, Roger Saffold and a second-year Spencer Brown would help improve the O-Line. - I was wrong that our young D-Line players would take a major step forward this season. - I was wrong that we had the strongest depth in the league. - I was wrong that our defensive coaching staff could learn from past years, and wouldn't be a liability in the postseason. Like many, I went into the season believing this team should be the Super Bowl favorite... and this would finally be our year. The only thing I was correct about? I realized around mid-season that this team was not really Super Bowl caliber, and all the above issues were going to kill us in the end. Believe me, I took no pleasure in coming to that conclusion. I don't think I enjoyed a single Bills victory from November on, because in my heart I realized we were just going through the motions. What happened on Sunday was the conclusion of what I expected (actually worse, because I anticipated a closer loss). And I take no pleasure in pointing it out now.

Exactly my point in another post. For his defense to work against a top-tier Quarterback, he NEEDS to get constant pressure with only 4 guys. When he does decide to blitz, the corners give a 10 yard cushion, because he's absolutely terrified of allowing a big play. Let's not even start with Kaiir Elam, who they apparently drafted in the 1st Round to sit the bench. Not because he's been bad as a rookie, but because he's not a scheme fit. He doesn't even know what to do with a corner that excels mostly in man coverage.

I've been watching this team for over 30 years. Grew up with the 90s Bills, and suffered through the drought. One thing I've realized is... none of the other stuff matters, if you aren't able to bring home a Super Bowl championship. Not long ago, younger fans were getting their first taste of success (in their lives) and that was enough. But now after three seasons of feeling close, and then falling short... they are realizing the AFC East title doesn't mean jack. I would rather this team shoots for the stars and totally misses the playoffs, than has another season like this.

Sean Payton is a good offensive mind, but I don't see him as a real improvement as a head coach. If anything, he's just more of what we already have with Sean McDermott. Knows how to win the regular season, but struggles to get over the hump in the playoffs.