mjt328

The argument that Nix had no QBs to choose from is also disappearing. Last year, it was clear he whiffed by not taking Andy Dalton for Aaron Williams. This year, we watched him pass on Russell Wilson for TJ Graham. Over the last 2 weeks, we have also witnessed Colin Kaepernick show what he can do.

Mark Sanchez threw for 301 yards and a touchdown on Thursday night (Thanksgiving) against the Patriots. He also had over 70 percent completion percentage on the night. Do you feel like he played a good game?

A few years ago, I started a study on this exact topic. I went all the way back to the year 1978 to see how successful players were, based on the round they were drafted. For quarterbacks, there was a HUGE downward trend in success outside of the Top 10 - and especially outside of the first round. Finding even a solid starter after the second round was next to impossible. In fact, over the course of 27 years, I could only find TWO great quarterbacks that were drafted in the second round. Drew Brees and Brett Favre. On top of that, Brees was drafted #32 and Favre was drafted #33. So they barely slipped out of the first round. During the same period, there were also only a handful of solid starters out of the second round. Jake Plummer, Randall Cunningham, Boomer Esiason and Neil Lomax. The number of successful players continued to drop each round. Based on the results of my study, I came to a very strong conclusion: I've heard many critics say the draft is a complete "crap shoot" and is nothing more than luck. This is simply not true. In reality, scouts generally have a good idea where the top talent is at - and those players generally get taken at the top of the draft. Sure, there are always the Ryan Leafs and Jamarcus Russells that never realize their potential and go down in history as incredible draft busts. And then there is Tom Brady, a Hall of Famer taken in the 6th round that somehow everyone missed. But when you look at the numbers - the VAST majority of successful quarterbacks (and players in general) are taken in the first round. And finding a successful quarterback in the mid to late rounds is harder than finding a needle in a haystack.

The Redskins will not miss those draft picks, and Cleveland will forever regret not making this deal. It's very early, but RGIII appears to be as good as advertised. Players like him are rare, and they make everyone on the team better. Griffin is having a spectacular rookie season, even without his #1 receiver (Garcon) for most of the season. His success is coming with players like Alfred Morris, Aldrick Robinson and Logan Paulson.

Johnson took 3-4 steps after catching the ball before going to the ground. In NFL-terms, those steps are known as a "football move." So in the eyes of the rule book, he had already completed the catch before going to the ground. Now, if the receiver is going to the ground while making the catch - then they must complete the play with possession and cannot lose the ball when they hit the ground. The steps Johnson made make all the difference. It was the right call. The Forsett play... Not so much.

I notice that you conveniently left out the 1985 draft, which netted us one of the greatest NFL players of all time (Bruce Smith) and a should-be Hall of Famer (Andre Reed). Not to mention the numerous late-round successes that aren't listed. Not to mention (as someone else also pointed out), the pick that was traded for Cornelius Bennett. Your thread fails to make a point. Even with all Polian's "misses" I still see numerous hits. VERY big hits. Numerous Hall of Fame-type hits. Where are the big hits for Buddy? Heck, where are the average hits for Buddy? He's struggled to even get us solid starters in the draft. Most of the 2010 draft has been a complete loss. The lone exception being CJ Spiller. The 2011 draft got us Dareus, who I still think has potential - and a couple low-end starters (A.Williams, Sheppard, Hairston). Almost every one of those players has digressed in their second year. To compare the two regimes is insane. Polian took over the WORST team in football. In 3 years, they were 12-4 and in the AFC Championship game. In 5 years, they were in the Super Bowl. Nix took over a perennial 6 or 7 win team. In 3 years, the team appears to have made no progress.

Exactly. Nothing happened to him. He always had a low celing because of his limited physical skills. At 29 years old (almost 8 years in the league), he's reached his full potential. For his first 6 seasons, Fitz was known around the league as inconsistent and inaccurate - better suited as a backup than as an NFL starter. In early 2011, Chan and Fitz caught some teams off-guard with how successful he was in the spread offense... and he had a nice 4-5 game stretch. But once defensive coordinators caught on, the offense came back down to earth. He still has a nice game once in awhile against the really bad defenses of the league. But whenever he faces a good defense, he's pretty much screwed. And for the people that claim that his passing is getting BETTER as the season wears on... You do realize that our offense was held without a touchdown in two of our last three games, right?

I agree. Like I said in another post, there are plenty of other stadiums/fans that take care of business. I live in St. Louis and you never hear about or see the drunken nonsense that happens in Buffalo.

My biggest knock on Flacco is that he's always looking for the big play. In that sense, he's kind-of the "anti-Brady." There are lots of times he has guys wide open short, but he decides to launch it downfield because his receiver is 1-on-1. If he just developed some patience, I think he would be among the best in the league. As far as his comparison to Fitz, I think it goes way beyond arm strength (although that is a big and important one). Accuracy is one of the most important traits for a quarterback to have, and while Flacco may not be Drew Brees-like in that respect - he has Fitz topped by miles. In my opinion, Fitz is one of the least accurate passers in the NFL. He's constantly forcing his receivers to the ground to catch slant passes. On post routes in the middle of the field, the receiver usually has to wait for the ball. On deep throws, he's either way long or way short. Flacco is also a much better decision-maker. Despite what I said above, he doesn't force a lot of his passes. Every quarterback has his bad moments. But Fitz makes WAY too many "what the heck was he thinking!?" passes. Tennessee was a perfect example.

I just don't get it. Just because other quarterbacks have flaws, doesn't mean Fitz is anywhere on their level. I've asked this question before: What does Fitz consistently do well? In 8 NFL seasons, what has he shown on the football field that would make you believe he's a reliable starter? I can answer that question for Manning, Rivers, Schaub, Flacco. I can't for Fitz.

Why is it so hard to believe that Eli Manning is better than Fitz? Because Fitz puts up decent stats? One of the biggest problems with statistics is that they can be SO MISLEADING. For example, a player may have a great completion percentage. Just looking at those numbers on paper, a person may assume that high completion percentage = accuracy. But that number doesn't take into account how many passes were short, medium or long. It doesn't take into account receivers dropping passes or making great plays. It doesn't take into account the kind of defense the quarterback was playing, or the situation. It doesn't take into account offensive line play or pressure. Since taking over as the starter in Buffalo, Fitz has put up good numbers - no doubt. Probably on par with guys like Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Joe Flacco, Matt Shaub - and a number of guys talked about frequently on this board. But when you actually watch Fitz play week after week, season after season - you will find there are serious issues in his game. Probably the most visible problem with Fitz is his deep ball accuracy. This weakness makes things really difficult for the rest of the offense, since most opponents play the Bills receivers very close to the line. Of course, that weak point doesn't always show up on the stat sheet, because most of our passes are screens, slants and quick hits. But Fitz also has big problems in his short game accuracy. How many times do you see a quick slant to Stevie Johnson or Donald Jones, where the receiver is forced to dive to the ground to make the catch? That shows up on the stat sheet as a 6-7 yard completion. What people miss - is that if Fitz could hit the receiver in stride - it could be a 20-30 yard completion... maybe even a touchdown. I often think the same thing when reading posts. Last week, people were comparing Fitz to Flacco and Shaub. This week it's Rivers. These guys might be equals in fantasy football, but in real life - not so much.

Rivers most certainly is part of the problem in San Diego. That doesn't mean he can't turn things around, or go back to playing at a high level. Like I said in my post, I think most of his troubles arise from the mentality that he has to carry the team. Better coaching and better talent around him could help. Rivers has a history of winning in the NFL and playing at an MVP level. He as shown the physical and mental ability to be one of the top QBs in this league. There are many reasons to be optimistic he can do it again. Fitz has NEVER proven anything in his career. He's never been a winner, never played at a high level for a full season and never shown the physical ability.

Yes, he would be a BIG upgrade. But Rivers is not a free agent until 2016, and I doubt we would have a chance at him before then. There are a lot of people around the league that think his arm strength is degrading, and that might be true. What I see when I watch the Chargers is a guy who is trying to do too much and win game all by himself. I honestly think the talent is still there, but he needs to stop forcing passes. Consider that when Rivers was named starter for San Diego, they were one of the league's best teams and a Super Bowl contender. Since then: - He has watched his coach (Schottenheimer) get replaced by one of the biggest bum head coaches in the league following a 14-2 season. The team hasn't been the same since. - The decline and release of future HOF running back LT, along with San Diego letting Michael Turner and Sproles walk in free agency. The Chargers ground game now sucks bad. - The offensive line falling to shambles, especially after injuries destroyed the career of his left tackle Marcus McNeil. - The decline of his best weapon, Antonio Gates, and free agency loss of his best downfield receiver, Vincent Jackson. It's no wonder that Rivers feels the pressure to carry the team on his back.

I would be willing to bet the "anonymous source" about Tebow was completely made-up. I'm a journalism major and I worked as a newspaper reporter for 5 years. That type of garbage doesn't fly with real journalists. The New York media has been itching for a Tebow story for months, and for the most part the Jets haven't cooperated. It was only a matter of time before the media took matters into their own hands.

In 2008, the Miami Dolphins held the first pick in the draft. The debate was between: 1) Jake Long Considered by many to be the best left tackle to come out of the draft since Anthony Munoz, and easily the safest pick in the draft. 2) Matt Ryan The best quarterback in a weak draft class, who played at a small school and had lots of question marks. Parcells went with Jake Long, who has gone on to make 4 Pro Bowls. Until getting injured 2 seasons ago, he was widely considered the best left tackle in football, and most still consider him one of the elite players at the position. Ryan has made 1 Pro Bowl and is generally considered "just outside" the elite group. Few would argue that Long has been the better player thus far. Yet if you ask any Dolphins fan or individual within the organization.... if they had to do over, they would pick Ryan in a heartbeat. No single player has more impact on an NFL team than the quarterback.

I live in St. Louis, so I've gone to see Bills games here at home and at a few surrounding stadiums. I've also gone to see ONE game at Ralph Wilson Stadium. As a lifetime fan of the team, the behavior of Bills fans was more than embarrassing. Drunk idiots stumbling around, cussing and throwing trash everywhere - an hour before the game even started. Fighting in the stands. Terrible language - with families around. It was pathetic. I came out of that game with a new perspective of Bills fans and the City of Buffalo. I started to understand why the NFL makes fun of us, players don't want to come here, and why the league wants us to pack up and move. In most other stadiums that I've been to (St. Louis, Indianapolis, Kansas City), this behavior is NOT tolerated. Acting like a drunk moron will get you thrown out by the mid-first quarter. By the way, Kansas City manages to have an AWESOME tailgating experience, which is fun for families and kids - without the garbage you get in Buffalo.

We've played 10 games and the Bills have failed to score a touchdown in 3 of them.

I'll be curious to see how he looks Week 16 against us at home. Part of me wants to be excited about the way the defense played tonight. But experience tells me this was probably the exception and not the rule.

I think it's more like, "Hey Steve, we've got a game in Buffalo this week. Can you watch last week's game against the Pats and make a few comments about Ryan Fitzpatrick." If they asked him to watch the Houston game one week earlier, I guarantee his opinion would be completely different. And for all the people that stick up for Fitz on this board... CONSISTENCY is the name of the game. Every quarterback will put up a stinker once in awhile - even Rodgers, Brees, Manning, etc. But 6-7 per season is too many bad games for us to ever be a regular playoff team. And after 3 seasons as our starter, that's about the average we can expect from Fitz. By my count, after 9 games he's already had 3 terrible performances (Jets, 49ers, Texans) and an average performance where he lost us the game with a horrible pick (Titans). We all know that Fitz can be lights out and play at a Pro Bowl level for a handful of games every year. But once you hit 6-7 losses, the season is over. If our quarterback is putting us in a hole that many times, he needs to be replaced. And for the record, I'm not giving a pass to the defense at all. By my count, they have had 3 good games this season (Chiefs, Browns, Cardinals), one decent game (Texans) and the other 5 have been horrific. There also need to be major changes to the defense too.

He's probably never watched a Bills game, unless forced to by the network. This opinion is based on stats. Anybody who watches Fitz play every week knows he isn't the answer.

I agree. Sometimes the secret to being a good quarterback is just not making the back-breaking mistakes... Knowing when to take a chance with a big throw, and knowing when to hold off. Tom Brady has made a Hall of Fame career with this mentality. The Tennessee game was proof-positive that Fitz does not have this trait. It's the same reason that somebody like Tony Romo (who is more physically talented than Fitz and surrounded with great talent) continues to struggle and pull his team down, year after year. Flacco and Schaub aren't big stat guys, but they rarely make those back-breaking mistakes to put their teams in a hole. And when their teams need a big play, they usually come through.

Upgrading Fitz should be number ONE priority in the 2013 offseason. 1. If the right guy is in the draft, the Bills need to do everything in their power to get him. If it means passing on a more talented player at another position, draft the quarterback anyway. If it means reaching for him 2-3 rounds too early, then so be it. If it means selling the farm to trade up, then do that too. We cannot play around this year. 2. If the right guy is not in the draft, it's time to target someone by free agency or trade. Somebody HAS to be available. The Bills cannot afford to pass again.

Wrong. Fitz's numbers look a lot better when averaged out over the course of the whole season. When his play is dissected closely (game by game, throw by throw), it's another story. He's been a major factor in at least 4 of our 6 losses - New York, San Francisco, Tennessee and Houston. Here is a question for Fitz supporters: Is there anything he does consistently well? > He doesn't win games. > He doesn't do a consistently good job of reading the defense and making good decisions. > He doesn't have a strong arm and fails to get the ball downfield, even when receivers have separation. > His accuracy is all over the place. The standards in Buffalo are ridiculously low for the quarterback position. Just because he's doing a better job than Losman, Edwards and Holcomb doesn't mean anything, because they were all terrible.

Yes, I believe we would be MUCH MUCH MUCH better with either of those guys under center. People need to focus less on stats and fantasy football ratings, and actually watch guys play. > Both Schaub and Flacco have much better short to mid accuracy. They consistently hit their receivers in stride, in the hands. Fitz is constantly throwing short, throwing high, throwing behind, etc. > If the defense clogs the box to stop the run, Schaub and Flacco can hit the deep ball. I don't think Fitz has hit a long pass in 2 years. > They are better decision-makers. Fitz lost us the Tennessee game with his interception with 3 minutes left. He makes throws like that all the time. Real quarterbacks like Schaub/Flacco don't. > Fitz is again near the top of the league in turnovers. They are not. It's easy to pad stats when you have a pass-happy coach (like Gailey) and your defense can't stop anybody.

I'm not a big stat guy, but according to your link - both Schaub and Flacco are rated higher than Fitz. Schaub may have the luxury of a better defense, but that also means that he doesn't get a chance to pad his stats. The Texans are a run-first and run-second team. By late-third quarter, they are usually up by enough points to put the brakes on and just hand the ball to Arian Foster. Similar with Flacco. For instance, on Sunday he had 5 touchdowns and was on the bench by mid-third quarter. And anybody that watches Baltimore should know that their defense isn't winning them many games anymore. Cam Cameron also seems to have Chan Gailey disease and is reluctant to get Ray Rice involved as much as he should. This year, most of that 6-2 record falls on the shoulders of Flacco. Stats also don't take into account consistency. For every good game Fitz has (Kansas City, Cleveland, New England), he has games that are horrifically bad (Jets, San Francisco, Houston, Tennessee). When their team needs them to make big throws, Flacco and Schaub usually come through. Fitz throws picks. Has he even completed ONE deep ball all season?