mjt328

What people often forget is that 90-95% of professional athletes are one-dimensional. Wide Receivers are usually small and fast... OR... they are big and strong. Guys who are burners downfield often struggle with things like press coverage, blocking and contested catches. Guys who are bigger struggle with separation and getting open quickly. The extremely small percentage of players who are physically blessed with BOTH skills are drafted very high, and aren't going to be available where we usually pick. By the time you get to the mid/late 20s of the 1st Round, most of the guys left on the board are one or the other. When given a choice, the Bills simply don't value speed at the WR as highly as other teams. They want a guy who is going to also contribute in the running game and Red Zone WAY more than someone who is going to draw an extra safety away deep downfield. I'm sure they wouldn't mind having someone like Xavier Worthy on the roster. But other teams (like KC) are always going to value that skillset higher, so they often get snatched-up before Beane would consider drafting them.

Everyone would have liked to see a WR in the first three rounds. But everyone also wanted to see a CB, DT and Edge in the first three rounds. Four positions to address in only three picks. Once we got to Day 3, I'm not sure anyone was available who would have moved the needle at receiver. Last year, the Bills had (statistically) the best offense in the history of the franchise. That includes the legendary K-Gun/No-Huddle 90's teams. The only pieces we lost were Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper. Neither of whom had huge production, at least in the numbers. I'm not as high on Josh Palmer as some people, but I think he should do fine in replacing Hollins. We could always still bring back Cooper, since he's still sitting out there as a Free Agent. It's still possible for us to swing a trade. Not sure it's really something worth freaking out about right now. Last year we started the season with some issues, and then swung a trade mid-season.

Browns/Jags trade was the only big surprise. So many were saying this draft was a total mystery, and nobody had ANY IDEA what was going to happen. Outside of swapping the team names at #2 and #5, the first 8-9 picks were pretty much on-point with the majority of mock drafts. I think most had Tyler Warren going as the first TE and Jalon Walker as the next DE, but nothing else was really out of line. There wasn't a huge difference in talent outside of the Top 10, so guys like Kenneth Grant could have gone anywhere in there. Grey Zabel was maybe the biggest reach. Will Johnson was the biggest faller, although I saw many people calling his drop weeks ago due to the injury. Lots of signs that Sanders was going to fall out of the 1st Round too, and that Dart had overtaken him as #2. Some were in denial and just didn't want to believe it. Teams are looking for a particular kind of personality and leadership vibe at the QB position, especially with the risk involved taking one in the 1st Round.

Had the CB options correct. Had the Giants trading back into the 1st Round. I would be curious if there were any discussions about us making a similar trade with New York.

After watching the previous 8 drafts, it's pretty clear how Brandon Beane operates. He zeroes in on our biggest need. If options on his board are dwindling down, he will attempt a small trade-up of maybe 5-10 slots. If he's got a bunch of prospects rated about the same, he will consider moving down - but only enough where he can still get one of them (see Keon Coleman last year). The only year that our 1st Round Pick wasn't completely obvious was in 2023. That year WR was our biggest need. Things looked to be falling our way, and then suddenly the four top receivers went 20, 21, 22, 23... leaving the cupboard completely bare. So Beane pivoted to Dalton Kincaid, which was about the closest thing left as a top receiving weapon for the offense. For the last month, it's been very clear that CB was our top need. Somehow people talked themselves into believing the Tre White signing would change that. Not sure why. They had multiple CBs in for visits that were expected to go late 1st/early 2nd. Hairston was one of them, along with Trey Amos, Shavon Revel and Benjamin Morrison. Barring some kind of weird run on the position or somebody really crazy dropping, one of those guys was always going to be the pick.

I want at least one Pro-Bowl impact player from this draft, preferably along the D-Line. Even if we have to trade-up in order to get one. In my opinion, the guy who best fits that bill (who is also somewhat realistic for us to land) is Kenneth Grant. If he makes it to around Pick 20-21, I think it would be worth exploring trade options to go up and grab him. Draft history tells me that Beane usually prefers quantity (more picks) over quality (higher picks). He also likes filling all of his primary holes as early in the draft as possible. Need over BPA. I think his primary goal is to land a potential CB2 and future starting DT. Next priorities are Edge Rusher, speed WR, depth at LB and a FS more in the mold of Micah Hyde (most of our current guys are better at SS)... but he will save those for late Day 2 or Day 3. Malaki Stark is suddenly a popular mock pick, and he might be the BPA at #30. But safety isn't a big enough need for Beane to use a 1st Round Pick on that position. Can't see it happening. The fact that he's called D-Line the deepest position in the draft could mean he feels comfortable waiting until Day 2 to get one. Signing Tre White shouldn't move the needle for anyone, based on how he played last season. CB is still our biggest need, and it's not a very deep class this year. My prediction is basically a repeat of last year (swapping out WR for CB). Bills fans eagerly wait until the late evening for Pick #30, only to find Beane has traded with the Giants and out of the 1st Round. Like WR in 2024, Beane has a handful of guys ranked about the same on his board. We ultimately choose the leftovers from amongst the guys who were in for visits: Maxwell Hairston, Shavon Revel, Trey Amos or Benjamin Morrison.

Probably. But you never know. I've seen Grant dropping into the 25-35 range in quite a few mocks. D-Line is pretty deep in this class and not everyone values the bigger guys (not sure we do either), so it's possible he could drop to us. The big hurdle is probably the Chargers, who need a DT and have his old coach. Amos is usually in the 35-45 range. Our first pick on Day 2 is at 56, thanks to the Stefon Diggs trade. Perfect place for a trade-up. We could probably move up 10-15 spots with one of our 4th Round picks. I've seen about 11-12 edge rushers ranked as 1st/2nd Round guys. Not unrealistic that someone we like lasts until 62. Rumors have been circling that Williams could be available in a trade. Would likely take a mid/late round pick, since he's also going to be a free agent soon. He's pretty much what we are missing in the passing game. The big issue is contract. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/jameson-williams-posts-cryptic-message-on-social-media-possible-landing-spots-if-lions-trades-wr/ https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/jameson-williams-attends-lions-voluntary-workout Not sure if he's really available (or how much he would cost). But there has definitely been talk.

Here is my dream scenario for tonight. Round 1 = Kenneth Grant somehow falls to #30 Round 2 = Tre Amos (requires slight trade up to mid-40s) Round 2 = One of the dozen top edge rushers who happens to drop Round 4 = Trade for Jameson Williams from Detroit

Even with Josh Allen at QB, the offense has needed to adapt and change over the years. Last year, they became more balanced between run/pass. Targets started going to whoever was open, rather than force-feeding one guy. It resulted in possibly the best offense this franchise has ever put on a football field. It's time for the defense to do the same. Find ways to become versatile, unpredictable and adapt better to different opponents. Everyone knows what to expect from a McDermott defense.... where it's strong, and where it's weak. I've been pushing for years for the Bills to get better in running man-coverage, and blitzing more often. Having a huge 1-Tech in the middle is something we've never really seen in a McDermott defense. We are always undersized. Someone like Grant can potentially take those double-teams. But he's also athletic enough to move and get after the passer.

Yeah, I know they are saying he's versatile enough to play anywhere on the D-Line. 310-320 seems to be that weight where coaches experiment playing them at either. I guess I would prefer to get bigger in the middle of the D-Line. Ed Oliver is small for a DT. Terrel Bernard is small for a MLB. We are already playing heavy in Nickel.

We need a 1-Tech to takeover for Daquan Jones. That is Kenneth Grant. Most people see Derrick Harmon as a 3-Tech, which is the same position of Ed Oliver, DeWayne Carter and Larry Ogunjobi. Grant is easily my number one target in the draft. I think a big body in the middle of the D-Line would give us a huge upgrade. I would also rather trade up for one player with huge upside, as opposed to sitting back and getting two solid/safe prospects. There is a slight chance Grant falls to us. More likely we need to get above the Chargers at 22.

Abdul Carter. Part of the awe surrounding Travis Hunter is his ability to play either WR and CB. That isn't (or at least shouldn't) be happening in the pros. In the NFL, he will need to pick only one position and really try to perfect his craft. Otherwise he splits his time, and risks not being great at either side. Will he be happy focusing on just one position? Will it be the same one his coaches want him to play? Will there be division in the front office or coaching staff over where to play him? Too many questions for my taste. Give me the "potentially next" Micah Parsons, and don't look back. As a sidebar... how hilarious is it that we basically let New England beat us in a meaningless Week 18 game, and it cost them one of the two elite prospects in this draft? Ouch.

You are thinking of Ken Dorsey (who was the OC at the start of the year). But I'm not really buying that. Dorsey didn't run much 12 the previous season, and then still didn't have a plan to fully utilize both TEs in the first half of 2023 before he was fired. And even now when Brady goes heavy, it's usually a 6th O-Lineman instead of a second TE. The Bills have never had a grand strategy to get both Kincaid and Dawson Knox heavily involved at the same time. Combine that with the contract Knox got the previous September, I just think Kincaid was more of "Plan B" on draft day, rather than Beane's primary target. And unfortunately, that's how premium draft selections get wasted.

Elite prospect at #30? That never happens. Those guys are gone in the Top 5-10 picks every year. But lots of guys drafted later turn out to be elite once in the NFL. Just like some of those Top 5 elite prospects will bust. It's just a lot harder when you draft later, and requires much better scouting. Always picking in the late 20s/early 30s is only one reason we struggle to find elite talent. Personally, I think we focus too much on roster needs, instead of the best player available (particularly early). We draft heavily for pure scheme fits, rather than find different ways for coaching to utilize high-end physical talent. Beane also seems to prefer stockpiling picks and getting more swings, rather than trading up and trying for the homerun.

I've always believed that Beane had no intention of drafting Kincaid, and was fully planning on taking a WR. Then all the top receiver prospects got snatched up, and he talked himself into it... reasoning that he was still a "weapon" in the passing game. Usually it's pretty safe to assume we are going to take someone in for a Top 30 visit.