mjt328

Honestly, I don't know what he's capable of doing. Can he put together another 7 seasons like the first half of his career? Can he be elite for another 4-5 seasons, take a step back and then just play at a high level for another 4-5 after that?

Kelly is a great reason why you can't just focus on stats, or awards, or rings, or even how he ranked during his era. It's a total compilation of everything that made up that player's career, both good and bad. When considering Kelly's career stats, you have to remember that he spent two prime years in the USFL (earning that league's version of the MVP and an All-Pro both seasons). He missed the equivalent of 16 games in his career due to injury (basically a full season), and retired fairly early (only 36 years old). Overall, he played 71 less games than someone like John Elway, who came out of the exact same draft class. When considering his All-Pro/Pro-Bowl selections and overall rank, you need to remember how many QB greats were playing at that particular time. He was competing every year with Elway, Dan Marino and Warren Moon for those spots in the AFC. League-wide, you also had Joe Montana early in his career, and then Steve Young and Troy Aikman later. And Kelly's numbers weren't always as flashy, since the Bills offense also revolved around Thurman Thomas. When considering him not winning a Super Bowl, it's hard to ignore that he drove the Bills into field goal range in XXV, only for Scott Norwood to miss the kick. That's something totally out of Kelly's control. And finally, Kelly's legacy can not be discussed without how he called his own plays at the line. Pretty much unheard of at the time.

Even being the 4th/5th best QB of an era doesn't necessarily disqualify someone, if other things really stand out. Go back to the late 80s and early 90s. Most had the list as follows: 1. Joe Montana 2. Dan Marino 3. John Elway 4. Jim Kelly / Warren Moon All five were 1st ballot HOF players.

That's really not a lot of players if you think about it. Even if all seven get inducted, they would be the only quarterbacks selected over a period of 15+ years. Brees is a 1st ballot lock next year in 2026. He will be the first QB selected in five years (last was Peyton Manning in 2021). Roethlisberger is a lock , but not sure he's 1st ballot. Some voters are funky about that. Maybe 2027, but possibly a year or two later. Brady is obviously a 1st ballot lock in 2028. Rodgers is still playing, so he won't even be eligible until 2032 at the very earliest. There will be a lot of discussion over the last three. My opinion is that Rivers has the best bet and will probably make it eventually. Eli Manning is a really tough sell for me, and wasn't even a finalist his first year. Matt Ryan is a total wildcard for me. His career looks much better on paper than I ever remember him actually being. All the current guys like Mahomes, Allen, Jackson and Burrow likely have a decade of football in front of them. And they don't become eligible until they have been retired for six seasons. Which means around 2040 and possibly later.

It's not about who is better. All I'm saying is that at his current pace, Allen will have slam-dunk HOF numbers by the time he reaches the age of 36. And if he can play a few years beyond that, he's going to totally obliterate the record books. The media downplays his greatness now, because I don't think many of them have actually done the math. His current pace will have him at this point in only seven more years (all-time rank in parenthesis): Total TDs: 524 (#5) Total YDs: 61,152 (#10) Pass TDs: 390 (#8) Pass YDs: 52,868 (#12) Rush TDs: 130 (#3) Rush YDs: 8,284 (#44) Regardless of Super Bowls, there isn't a single voter who is going to ignore that kind of resume.

Disagree. He can make it based on statistics alone. And right now, Josh Allen is well on pace (barring injury) to shatter every dual-threat QB record on the books. For his first 7 seasons in the NFL, Allen is currently: - 1st all-time in total yards - 1st all-time in total touchdowns - 1st all-time in total wins Over 13 playoff games, he is also: - 1st all-time in postseason yards per game - 1st all-time in postseason touchdowns per game - 1st all-time in postseason touchdown/INT ratio Looking strictly at the Bills history, Allen is only a couple seasons away from breaking every Bills passing record currently held by Hall of Famer Jim Kelly. He's already passed HOF running back OJ Simpson in rushing touchdowns, and will pass HOF running back Thurman Thomas next year. He's currently #5 in rushing yards all-time for the team, and (believe it or not) it's actually possible for him to become #1 in that stat too. Has any QB ever broken the yardage AND touchdown records for their team in BOTH passing and rushing? Currently, Allen has 262 total touchdowns in his career. He's already over half-way to being Top 5 in the history of the NFL. Meaning 7 more seasons at the same pace, and he's right there. Now, I'm not sure if he will ever catch Tom Brady (677 total), but everyone else on that list (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre) can potentially be passed if Allen can keep playing into into his late 30s at a high level. Seven more seasons makes him only 36, and some QBs are now playing well into their early 40s. At the current pace, he's also half-way to being Top 10 all-time in passing touchdowns (#9 or #10 depending on how long Matthew Stafford plays). It's totally conceivable for him to land right around the Top 5 on this list as well. And the clincher... Allen is also half-way to being #3 all-time in RUSHING touchdowns (he will likely pass Cam Newton at the QB position either this year or next). Again, not sure he can quite catch Emmitt Smith at 164. But he could pass everyone else on that list, including LaDainian Tomlinson, Marcus Allen, Adrian Peterson, Walter Payton and Jim Brown.

Last season, the worst offense in the entire league (Cleveland) averaged just over 15 points per game. The Bills defense allowed less than 15 points a total of six times. Last season, the offensive league average in points was around 22 points per game. The Bills defense allowed less than 22 points a total of ten times. We know the Bills defense underperforms badly in the postseason against the NFL's elite passers. But in the regular season, they don't play those guys very often. In the regular season, this defense is consistently a Top 5-10 unit. So if you just start with that side of the ball, it's totally reasonable to say this team could win about 8 games... assuming they get an average performance from the offense (as you stipulated). I will also remind everyone that Sean McDermott walked into the locker room and coached this team to a 9-7 record in his first year, with Tyrod Taylor at QB. Now would this team get an "average" offensive performance with Mitch Trubisky as the starting QB? Very unlikely.

No so much. Like the Bills with Josh Allen, the Bengals struck gold by drafting the right QB. One of Joe Burrow's injuries also helped them luck into a prime draft slot, where they could draft Jamar Chase. But lucky breaks only last for so long. At some point, it comes back to the franchise making smart decisions. For a brief 1-2 season period, the Bengals did surpass the Bills as the AFC's #2 team. Hard to argue that point. But the Bengals shine at the top was very short-lived, because they have a terrible owner and crappy front office. The big difference between the Bills/Bengals is that once players started getting paid and vets started aging out, we were able to keep a competitive team together. They have not. Over the last few years, we lost Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Mitch Morse, Tre White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. And we just kept right on rolling. Last season was our big test, and we passed. Our offense was better than ever. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been a downhill trajectory for the last two years. Their O-Line is really bad, and wasn't upgraded much in the offseason. Their running game hasn't been effective since Joe Mixon left. Their defense is terrible, and Trey Hendrickson is holding out. The situation with their top pick is a joke. Depth across the team isn't great either, which is why they can't seem to overcome injuries.

I said that if Cook wants to get paid early (meaning before the expiration of his current contract), then he needs to give the Bills some kind of incentive to do so. The cap on his open-market value right now is between $12-13 million per season, at the absolute maximum. That is when Cook is an unrestricted free agent, and there are bottom-feeder teams with $80 million in cap space bidding for his services. Considering that he's not even a 3-down player, I'm not completely sure he could even fetch that amount. Why would the Bills tear-up his rookie contract - where he's set to receive about $5.7 million, and then extend him for almost three times that amount... when they aren't even competing with another team? Because he's threatening to sit-out the offseason? The only reason Brandon Beane should even consider an extension at this point of the year, is if Cook is willing to give them a hometown discount to stay here.

Exactly. Some fans (and in the media) are totally forgetting the value/overpay portion of this situation. It's not just a pay or not pay debate. If reports are true about his contract demands being around $15 million per season, he's simply asking for way too much money from a Super Bowl contending team that is consistently tight against the salary cap. That amount would tie him with Derrick Henry as the 3rd-highest paid RB in the entire NFL (only behind Saquan Barkley and Christian McAffrey). It would put him above Jonathan Taylor as well. Last year, Josh Jacobs signed for $12 million per... only a season after winning the rushing title. I'm not sure James Cook can even argue to be in that tier, considering that he's not our 3rd-Down back (Ty Johnson) OR our primary short-yardage guy (Josh Allen). Not to mention the Bills have a talented 2nd-year guy (Ray Davis) waiting in the wings. Sorry... but if Cook wants an early extension, then he needs to make it financially worth it for the Bills and take a hometown discount. Less than $10 million per season if he wants a contract now. Even if he was a free agent at this very moment, I don't think he's getting close to $15 million on the open market. He has absolutely no leverage here. Holding out is just going to turn the fans against him, and give the front office the impression that he's not a team-first guy.

Some people will swear there is no such thing as injury prone... I'm not one of those people. Yes, sports are always going to have freak occurrences that happen due to bad luck. But just like athletes can be genetically gifted in strength, speed, agility, etc., they can also be more likely to pull/tear muscles, break bones, etc. This also gets worse with age and pre-existing injuries that start to compound. Bosa has proven over and over that he cannot stay healthy. For the first time in his career, he's got a fresh start outside of Los Angeles. He doesn't even make it through the first day of OTAs.

The Bills have historically also been a slow starter under Sean McDermott (with the exception of the Rams): - First half last year against the Cardinals - Losing to the Jets in the Aaron Rodgers/Achilles game - Steelers home opener With each passing year, I'm becoming less and less concerned about how the team starts the season. Barring significant injuries, I just can't see this team winning less than 11 games with this schedule. It's doubtful anyone really pushes them for the AFC East title. And even though homefield would be really nice, it's not anywhere near the top reason we keep losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs.

Bills should be heavy favorites in at least 9 of their games: NYJ and NE (both games), NO, ATL, CAR, PIT and CLE They should be moderate favorites in another 3 of their games: MIA (both), TB That leaves 5 remaining games as the toss-ups, which could probably go either way: BAL, KC, HOU, CIN, PHI Barring some catastrophic injuries or bad luck (or an AFC East opponent being way better than expected), we should be looking at an 11-12 win season at bare minimum. That would certainly be enough to win another division title. If the Bills can do a good job against their stronger opponents, finishing with 13-15 wins is definitely within reason.

Outside of all the stats and advance metrics, I'm just not seeing Kincaid as a dangerous weapon in our passing game. Hopefully that changes. But as of right now... He hasn't been a threat in the red zone. He hasn't been a threat downfield. He hasn't been a reliable target on third down. He hasn't been a producer of YAC on short passes. Ignore his drops. Give him a pass because of the injury. Show me that many of his passes were uncatchable. I'm still not seeing a guy that puts fear into the opposing defense. Even if he's not on a Pro Bowl level, Dawson Knox has proven to be superior in all of the above areas. Even though he's had some drop problems himself, Knox has also made some spectacular catches. He's a decent red zone threat, and can make plays downfield. And he's shown the ability to run people over to get extra yards after the catch. Kincaid has shown virtually nothing so far that we couldn't get out of a typical Day 2-3 pick.

Players should always get at least 3 seasons in the NFL before making a judgment call on them. That said, Kincaid has been pretty underwhelming (at best) so far. Even before his mid-season injury. I keep hearing how impressive his route running is from film watchers. But if he's getting open a ton, our MVP quarterback isn't finding him. His draft report was all about hands, but he's had a big problem with drops... and I can't recall him making any impressive catches either. YAC isn't really a strength either (at least Dawson Knox can run people over). Blocking has always been a weakness. He needs a big season to quiet the doubters.