simpleman

Supply and demand. Exactly. And there is plenty of supply this year. I don’t think anyone looks at AJ as a Franchise QB. Teams like Buffalo looking for a bridge QB, or a backup, are not giving up a 1st, 2nd or a 3rd for a bridge QB or a backup. Exactly who do you think would trade for AJ as their future Franchise QB that would trade those high picks for him? http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/quarterback/ http://www.cincyjungle.com/2017/1/11/14231800/4-possible-trade-destinations-for-bengals-qb-aj-mccarron-trade-rumors http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000756816/article/qb-index-the-2017-trade-marketfree-agency-guide There are maybe 5 or 6 teams where AJ would have a shot at actually starting, and the Bills are the best shot. Of those teams, one or two will go with a top draft pick this year. In a trade Jimmy G would be the 1st choice for one of them. Houston is ready to make a serious push for the Superbowl, so they want only the best, Jimmy G makes the most sense for their situation. A team looking for a win now will go with a high price player like Romo, Cousins. There go 2 more spots. That leaves 1 or 2 teams in possible competition with the Bills for AJ. And all the rest of those draftees, FA, trade, and potential release candidates to choose from. Conventional logic says you don’t trade within your division, and give up high draft pick that could come back to haunt you. So that lowers the Browns threat. And the Bengals have a choice of getting nothing for AJ next year, he is not in their future plans, they have their Franchise QB and a backup already waiting. It is actually a good year to be looking for a QB for a bridge or a backup. I think a 5th this year and a provisional 2018 would be a reasonable offer for the Bengals to consider vs ZERO next year.

Get McCarron from the Bengals for a 5th, which is where they got him. They had him for 4 years of use and they get their 5th back. We use the extra 5th we got in the Cassel trade. In the last year of his contract, the Bengals would like to get something out of him this year before he is a FA. His contract is a paltry $735,000. A perfect bridge QB, who even has a possibility to pleasantly surprise us with his play. I don't think getting he is a 2nd or 3rd. He does not have the allure of a Jimmy G. I would be suprised if even Jimmy G got more than a 2nd, and he is the big glamorous fish this year. If TT is gone, he has a great chance to start while our QB picks (hopefully) get time to develop. Even if it is only a year here, he has a "show me" year to catch the eye and interest this year around the league for that big payday next year. Give him Watkins, a high WR pick to work with, and a decent FA RT and he is given his best chance to succeed in the league. He has a great line for protection, and McCoy and Clay to work with in the run game. He has the people around him to succeed. It is the perfect situation for him. He knows he will not start behind Dalton unless he is injured again. And the Bengals just want to get something for him. Unless there is a surprise big demand for him, I think a 5th, or a 5th with a chance for another pick next year depending on performance might just get him. If we had a 4th, I'm quite sure the deal would get done. 2015-16 Stats 97.1 QB 66.4 CMP%, 854 yards. Started 4 games. Has played in 9 total regular season games.

I understand your view, but i guess mine is that the difference between the 5-7 picks and undrafted rookies as far as the odds of being a longshot, are minimal at best. Most of those UFAs are just depth, filler. And the other fact is that many of those better players in those rounds would have been selected earlier, if it wasn't for red flags like off field issues. Like Karlos Williams, talented, great potential, great skills, but questions about off field issues. Most end up like him, but a very small percentage do rise above them. I guess those are the are the ones you hope for in the later rounds and why you value those picks so highly. Players playing at or below the level of vet minimum. They will not make or break your team. Like a majority of the Bills free agents this year, they are not impact. I have never seen a study comparing the odds of getting outstanding talent in the upper rounds of the draft and as a UDFA, I would like to see one. Isn't that really what the theory behind moneyball is? I have seen such studies of higher rounds, but never later rounds. Now this year is the exception for the Bills, since DW was exceptional at dumpster diving last year. Not sure if it was knowledge and skill, just the law of averages, the sheer volumes of dives, or just damn good luck. Groy, Brown, Lorax were all exceptions to a normal year. But there will be plenty of dumpster dives available this year and Undrafted Free Agents to fill out the depth and the back of the roster without worrying about needing those draft picks to do that. As have said repeatedly on this board over the past year, DW's greatest strength has been his ability to be very good at dumpster diving. I wish he was as good at picking out exceptional talent as he was as finding outstanding value at average or mediocre talent levels. We would be in the playoffs and he would be GM of the year every year.

I see what you are saying. I guess I don't see it as all picks are equal. An extra 2nd late 5th pick and a 6th do not have a major value to me. They are total crap shoots. The real picks are rounds 1-4(if you hadn't wasted the 4th already). You usually expect to get a useful player in those spots. Late 5th, 6, 7 rounds you are closing your eyes and shooting in the direction of the target hoping to get someone useful. Personally I would not use a 6th on Kelly, but I think the attraction for the Bills would be the PR value in the Kelly name to the fans. ..5th round Draft Picks.........................6th round Draft Picks Year 2015___RB Karlos Williams___________________LB Tony Steward _____________________________________________TE Nick O'Leary Year 2014___OG Cyril Richardson__________________none Year 2013___DB Jonathan Meeks__________________K Dustin Hopkins Year 2012___OL Zebrie Sanders___________________OL Mark Asper ___________LB Tank Cader Year 2011___RB Johnny White_____________________LB Chris White Year 2010___OL Ed Wang_________________________LB Arthur Moats Year 2009____LB Nic Harris________________________DB Cary Harris Year 2008____LB Alvin Bowen______________________RB Xavier Omon How valuable is the pick? No one jumps out at me and makes me say WOW! We really would have missed out on him. http://boards.buffalobills.com/showthread.php?527526-Recent-History-of-Bills-5th-and-6th-Round-Draft-Picks-Keep-or-Trade

I realize you are just trying to be a smarta**, but bringing back a player sometimes works, Richie. Why not at least consider McKelvin or Byrd at the right price? We need Safety help.

I didn't say 3. Please reread, as an alternative with trade down, I said a Mahomes in 2nd if not selected with the late first, maybe I should have edited it to say Mahomes or other top 5 QB. I reworded it to clarify my meaning.. Using a 6th on Kelly is not like you are wasting a valuable pick, and I said Kelly or BPA at need. I see Kelly as more of a PR move to sell tickets than an on field move. We all know that for the Bills, PR moves rule. Look at Rex Ryan, his selection was more of a smart PR move than an intelligent football decision. In other words, double down on dumpster diving.

Maj, have you thought about AJ McCarron instead of Hoyer. Get McCarron from the Bengals for a 5th, which is where they got him. They had him for 4 years of use and they get their 5th back. We use the extra 5th we got in the Cassel trade. In the last year of his contract, the Bengals would like to get something out of him this year before he is a FA. His contract is a paltry $735,000. A perfect bridge QB, who even has a possibility to pleasantly surprise us with his play. 2015-16 Stats 97.1 QB 66.4 CMP%, 854 yards. Started 4 games. Has played in 9 total regular season games. He is younger, still might have an upside, and is a whole lot cheaper. I think you get similar performance from him for a lot less, with more upside. You know exactly what you have with Hoyer, and will never get more. With McCarron you have the possibility of an upside. It gives you a lot more cap space to spend where you want it.

I asked this in another post and got no answer. Since Henderson is suspended the first 5 games, does he even count against the cap and roster space till almost mid season? If not, why keep him around till then as a free insurance policy? Come on now Maj, don't you go peeing in their Koolaide and diluting it!

Using who's pick in the 7th?

If spending 6-7 million for a WR, they will definitely be out there. http://walterfootball.com/freeagents2017WR.php Your options for the others: http://walterfootball.com/freeagents.php?ti http://sports.yahoo.com/news/cornerbacks-buffalo-bills-could-sign-162205431.html

Thank you for correcting my misspelling.

Do not pick up TT option. Use that 13 million toward resigning our selected FA and new FA. It is obvious to most that TT is strictly a bridge QB. He is not worth 27 + million in guarantees which will restrict the team’s growth due to cap restrictions for the next 2-3 years. $35 million cap- $5 million to sign draft picks. $30 million Does Henderson count against cap while suspended for first 5 games? If not, we have an extra 1.8 million to play with until possible post June 1st cut savings. Ricky Wagner - $7 million, or another quality RT like Reiff. O-line is now top 5 in the league for the next few years. Let Woods & Gilmore go. While both are very good players, neither is worth what they will be able to get somewhere else. Woods is good, but just not worth what some team will be willing to pay for him. WR – 6-7 cap. Get a similar replacement and save a few million to try to resign Douzable & Bryant without overpaying. Gilmore wants top 5 dollars while being a top 15 CB. Get someone who will play for top 20 dollars and who is actually top 20. Replace with mid level CB 7-8 million. This uses up the TT savings and some other free cap. As much as I have liked Graham as a player, $5.5 million is too much for him as he is showing his age. Use the $ 4 million cap for an upgrade for a FA S. Even Byrd or McKelvin would be fine at the right price. If there is money left from the $4 million at S, use it toward some vet depth at S. Get McCarron from the Bengals for a 5th, which is where they got him. They had him for 4 years of use and they get their 5th back. We use the extra 5th we got in the Cassel trade. In the last year of his contract, the Bengals would like to get something out of him this year before he is a FA. His contract is a paltry $735,000. A perfect bridge QB, who even has a possibility to pleasantly surprise us with his play. 2015-16 Stats 97.1 QB 66.4 CMP%, 854 yards. Started 4 games. Has played in 9 total regular season games. Look for an upgrade for Carpenter if the staff feels one is available near his $3 million cap price. Look for undrafted kickers after draft. We just spent high picks last year on LB & Dline with Lawson & Ragland, so let’s give them a chance. If you can resign Brown at a fair price, do so, otherwise let him walk. Look for a reasonably priced FA at LB to fit our new coach’s scheme if we can’t afford to bring back Z Brown at a reasonable price. Try to resign Lorax, but only at the right price. Not sure he is going to be reasonable for our cap for what he may get elsewhere. Resign Felton, he already is costing us 1.5 in dead cap and is a good tool for McCoy and our run game. Tender a qualifying offer for Groy & Gillislee. Resign them if reasonable. Try to bring back Hunter, Tate, White if at an affordable cap price. All should be. All are decent, while not game changers. If Groy is resigned, depending on the need for cap space, it would be up to the coaches and front office to decide if Wood is expendable at a cap savings of 4.5 Million this year post June 1st cut. If Easley is not ready to go and looking 100% by then, cut him post June 1st and free up another 1.5 million this year for signing other post June cuts for depth at positions of need. One of the things our GM has been good at is dumpster diving, so let him do what he has been good at. Draft: One of the 2 WR in the 1st at 10 Draft Mahomes or available top 5 QB in the 2nd. Pick up a S in the 3rd if a good value there, or BPA at need BPA at need with the 5th Pick up Kelly or BPA at need in the 6th. Alternate trade down in 1st- get extra picks Grab Mahomes or other top 5 QB, or 1 of top 2 WR (although unlikely either WR will still be available with late 1st.) Grab available top 5 QB with the 2nd, if we have not already selected Mahomes or other top 5 QB in the 1st. If not QB, grab BPA at S. Grab Kupp or other BPA WR with extra late 2nd pick BPA at need CB, WR, S in 3rd, 5th. Kelly or BPA at need in the 6th Start bridge QB, allow developing QBs the opportunity to prove themselves during the season if the game is either safely put away late in the game, or we are so far out of it, it will not matter. If the staff feels either are ready enough to try. I don’t see us advancing in the playoffs with or without TT. If we somehow beat the odds and make the wildcard, I don’t see us advancing. At absolute best I see TT meaning a 1-2 game difference in wins. So why waste cap on him. Even if it costs 2 games without him, we gain back a better draft position to get our Franchise QB next year in a projected good QB year.

:thumbsup:

I saw that the Bill's website mentioned T.J. McDonald as possibility. If A Williams does decide to return, what are the views on him? He may not be available at the beginning of the season for legal issues, but if AW goes down in the season would he be a decent fit? I don't remember seeing him play so I have no opinion.

I think most would agree one of our needs this year will be safety. Even if Williams decides to come back, can we count on his health.? Cory is slipping and just does not seem to be worth almost 4 million in cap space. Our backups simply are not that good. I think we need to release Cory and draft a Safety in the first 3 rounds. And we need to find a decent FA safety that has more value for his cap space. Who would you draft and where? What FA would you go after, and why? What about Byrd and McKelvin, would either fit our new defensive scheme if the price was right? http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/safety/ http://www.drafttek.com/2017-NFL-Draft-Prospect-Rankings/Top-College-Safeties-2017-Draft.asp http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2017/FS http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2017/SS

I have Graham on my list for release for his cap space. I have been a fan of his, but he just appears to be showing his age and is not worth that almost 4 million. I'm just not sure who would replace him, would one of our ex players be a good fit for less money at safety, either McKelvin or Byrd? We definitely are looking at drafting a Safety in the first 3 rounds even if Williams returns.

I admit I did not watch Carolina much this year, but I remember him getting schooled in the Superbowl. I thought he had a bad year this year, giving up a lot of sacks and taking a lot of bad penalties at the worst times. Am I not remembering him right? Is he really that much an upgrade over Mills? Might Reiff be a better option if you want to be in the 5 million range?

If we can get him in the 8 million range that Spotrac has him, yes. Simply don't take the option on TT. Use the 13 million cap and add it to our cap. Sign Wagner and our Oline is one of the solidest in the league. Since TT is simply a bridge QB, he is not worth the 27 million guaranteed. Don't overpay for Wood & Gillmore, sign lesser but still quality FA at CB & WR, saving a few million each on both of them. Sign a lower cost FA bridge QB or trade for a QB like AJ McCarron. We can draft a WR high, one of the top 5 QBs in the draft available in the 2nd. We have the line to protect our developing QBs and bridge QB. Our run game is improved by our solid Oline. We have Cardale and the drafted QB to develop this year for next. If neither looks ready by next years draft, we draft high for QB. No need to risk fooling around moving Glenn. Tender RFA Goy, CK is our swing tackle. Our offense is set and loaded. We move forward building for the future, we may lose one or two games more than with TT. But we were not going to make it beyond the wildcard with TT anyway, if we even made the playoffs, so why not build for the future now.

I never thought about this path, but it makes the most sense for Houston. They have that killer cap for Brock, but if they trade for QB still on a low rookie contract they can get a QB with a good chance of being that last piece for getting in the Superbowl in 2017. A straight out high price FA or a vet with a high price existing contract is out for cap reasons, but a rookie still under contract is the way for them to go. Not sure if Jimmy G is right one, but someone like him is definitely their best bet.

There is a 2nd paragraph to this post that got mangled by the BB software about Romo as well, as it is all about cap space for Houston..

I don't why people keep saying things like this. Does it make sense to spend $35 Million plus dollars for TT to play at Houston? TT is a mediocre bridge QB, he is not Tom Brady. If TT's contract wasn't outrageously cap expensive for a mediocre bridge QB, there would be no question about him being the starting QB in Buffalo this year. Romo would be 40+ million,while he is not Brady, he might have a chance of getting them to the SB, but I would not take those odds based on his durability, not that his talent level isn't good enough to do it. All decisions are not made in a vacuum, the cap is the main consideration. $40 plus million better get you as close to a healthy Brady as you can get.

The cap issue is fully relevant here when you are talking about FA. You need cap space and plenty of it to resign your FA and sign new FA to fill your needs. Without cap space you can't do either. You can want and wish all you want, without cap space you can't do anything else. Taking the option on TT makes all these FA questions almost moot. Not just this year, but at least 2-4 years into future you are in cap hell because of it. There comes year 20 of futility.

From “Over The Cap” “If the Bills pick up the option an additional $27.5 million in fully guaranteed salary can be earned in 2017 and 2018. Taylor can also earn additional incentives for performance.” “The dead money for the Bills if they release Taylor and decline the option is $2.85 million and they will save $13.06 million in cap space” Dead money: 2018 $14,440,000 2019 $10,660,000 2020 $6,880,000 2021 $3,100,000 This is a huge drag on the cap for years to come for a mediocre bridge QB. It is damaging to the growth of the team unless you believe TT is the Franchise QB of the future that you are building your future around.

Is there a website somewhere where they put an realistic value on what range a FA might sign for? I agree on McCown. His contract is peanuts and he would make a good bridge QB. If we don't pick up the option on TT, we can afford to sign someone like Wagner at OT. We can afford to resign a couple of our lesser FA. Let Gilmore and Woods go, and resign some lesser, but still decent FA in their places. Get our WR in an excellent WR group this year. One of the top 2 would be great, another in the later rounds. If not one of the top two WR in the first, trade down for extra picks. Draft our rookie QB from among the top 5 if any are there in the 2nd. But if we pick up the option on TT we really cripple our team's growth for at least another year, if not 2, and 17 years of futility will suddenly be 20. TT's contract keeps us in cap hell for way too long just for a mediocre bridge QB.

I find it interesting that after 3/4 of a game of suck from EJ in the final game, Jones came in and played a brief time. Yes, he was a little too overconfident in his throws and needed to be a little less reckless, but he did move the team. Considering it was his first real time in an NFL, I didn't think he was horrible. He never had enough time to settle down, and he was in an almost hopeless situation by the time he came into the game and he was under pressure to do something huge to win the game, not in the situation of just being able to play conservative to protect a big lead. I don't know how people can be so sure Jones can not be good. At this point I have no idea exactly what Jones is and isn't capable of if given a chance. But I would like to give him a real chance next year to flop face first into the turf, or to surprise us. I'm not saying he should start, but I would like to see him get some time at the end of games where we are either hopelessly out of it, or mop up duty where we are safely in the lead.