sherpa

I have never found any verifiable connection from solar storms that result in northern lights anything, but there's one thing I've never been able to figure out, and it may be just coincidence. The night the Icelandic volcano erupted in 2010, the one that shutdown European airspace for a week, I was flying from Miami to London. The US to Europe flights are always at night. The various routes used would never be anywhere close to an area where the northern lights are visible. There no air traffic control transmissions once out of range, but there is an air-air frequency that all oceanic airplanes monitor to pass along various bits of information, usually turbulence reports or other flight related information or the killing of Bin Laden, European soccer scores or US sports stuff, cockpit to cockpit. On that evening, everyone was talking about the extent of the northern lights and how no one had ever seen them this far south. Someone commented that there was a significant solar storm three days prior and that must have been the cause. Anyway, halfway there, we get a message from dispatch about the volcano and that the ash cloud necessitated a change in route to a more southerly option. Anyway, the largest northern lights coverage I've ever seen was just prior to and during that volcano.

As I said though, it shouldn't have been that bad picking through the outermost feeder band. The potential for a very serious problem existed though, since if something would have happened on takeoff that required an immediate landing, such as an engine issue or anything that limited climb ability, they would have been in deep kimchi. Would have had to go to an airport in the Dominican Republic. Good options, but they would had to go around the band and then add additional time with an ailing airplane. Not a good option.

Its a bit misleading to see that flightracker screen shot and make a judgement. Those things, along with air traffic control radar show precip, but not in any way as accurately as airplane radar does. So while that outer band looks kind of menacing, airplane radar, which is specifically weather radar, would have presented a completely different picture, and you can tweak the display and work your way around the heavier areas of precip and avoid most of the turbulence quite easily. The outer band of a hurricane is not that much different that other weather that is flown through every day by picking your way carefully. The trouble would have been if there was some sort of delay on the ground. The airplane would have been stuck.

Maho Beach, St. Maarten beach cam this morning, before it went off line. We're going to see a lot more of this in the next four days. http://www.mahobeachcam.com/

Cold fronts move pretty quickly, are mostly surface things, and it should move on. The cold front would block it, but not completely. More likely is that an upper level disturbance will steer it. Same as the comment someone made about Cuba. Cuba is mountainous, but very narrow, and this storm is massive. Cuba wouldn't do anything to it. To diminish, it needs to have it's energy source stopped, and that means land.

"Blue lines" are cold fronts. Cold fronts move, so it may not be there at all when this storm arrives. I'm sure most folks know this, but there are already gas stations and hardware stores out of fuel and plywood in south Florida. Lines formed at 3AM in some places.

Its just a garden variety strong low. That's quite normal in the Bering Sea during the summer-winter transition. Surface winds are only 22 knots at Adak and Attu station, and the barometric pressure at Adak is 29.79, which is low, but not tremendously low. That area is the airspace that contains routes from NY/Chicago to Tokyo, and last evening the more northern routes were being used because of it. Coast out points were Nome and north instead of Anchorage to avoid it, but get a bit of the tailwind from it. By the way, you mentioned the Bermuda High, which is one of the semi-permanent weather systems on earth, This one is another, called the Aleutian Low, though it is usually further south. Icelandic Low and Pacific High are the other two. The naming of a storm depends on where it is. In the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific its a hurricane, In the Northwest Pacific its a typhoon and in the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean its a cyclone. All the same thing.

A missile launch is a pretty impressive thing to witness (unless you're not expecting it, I saw a few at Vandenberg - one unexpected one - and I nearly **** my pants). Yes. I was drilling around, waiting for an airplane to come out of Tonopah Test Range so I could fight it. I was just north of Area 51, maybe six miles form the north border. I was very familiar with air-air missiles, but the turn this one did was extraordinary. I'm pretty sure it was an AMRAAM test, but it was before they deployed them. Along with Las Vegas, they fly personnel in there from Nellis.

Regarding shear, if you go to the link I provided, and then rotate the earth to your desire, then press the "earth" thing at the bottom left to access the menu. 1. Rotate the earth to your desires. 2. Zoom as you want. 3. Select "earth" thing at the bottom and change altitudes by lowering the hectopaschal (hPa). You can see there is very little shear until you get in the 250 hPa range, which is about 35000', and then not until the central Florida area. Here's a link to convert hPA to feet. http://meteorologytraining.tpub.com/14269/css/14269_75.htm Looks like nothing to weaken it until land.

Of course they have roads, one long runway on Groom dry lake, and people who work there who use cars.

They all use the same models, and its a bit too early to model this one after the Straits of Florida. Still, if you want to see the steering currents, this one works. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-103.58,13.13,302 You can rotate the earth to desired location, and double click inside the globe to zoom. Press the "earth" thing at the bottom left to change altitude.

Not to be a wet blanket, but I've seen area 51 many times during my active duty Navy days. We used to call it "The Box," because on charts of the Nellis military area it always was depicted with a box. Only saw one thing of interest. One day I was just north of it and I saw a missile launch. I was pretty sure it was an AMRAAM, and it made a wicked 90 degree turn. just after launch. Pretty impressive.

I'm happy you got it for $800. I'm simply stating what people who do this for a living value it at. My son spends about half a million per week on used cars for his company, and that is what they value it at. The bottom line is that Audi timing chains are very expensive. If you buy one near the 90k number, you will likely get a discount, because everybody, ex the retail buyer, knows. Same goes for Carfax. Neat service, but it isn't what people who buy vehicles at that volume and risk level use. They inspect it themselves, and pay people to do those evaluations and price them.

Timing chain at 90k, and its about $1500. My son is a buyer for Carmax, and proximity to the 90k number is a big part of the appraisal. Other than that, should be pretty safe.

You might need to do a bit of work on the subject of "tax cuts for corporations."

For what it's worth, from a site I follow closely, the pilots site from my airline. "Able to spend some time talking to son this morning as he can catch his breath for a moment after some challenging days flying SAR in Houston. He's a USCG pilot stationed in New Orleans and has been in Houston since last Friday morning. Felt great to hear his voice, knowing that he would be challenged as never before. Heroic doesn't scratch the surface, and I don't mean that just for him, as a proud dad, but it's the only appropriate word to use for all the people stepping up in this disaster. ATC--- to hear him talk about tower controllers at Bush and Hobby; I apologize for every time I muttered about a heading and a speed reduction. He could not say enough for what those folks did to keep A/C separated and provide timely information to task saturated crews. Son said it was the same voices on the radios for hours, probably trapped at the airport with families and property of their own to be concerned about. Aircrews--- rescue swimmers, flight mechs, PJ', To hear the stories of what some did--impossible to convey here, but again, hero's every one. Training---He said they've been crewed not just with other Nola crews but folks from Houston, Corpus, Miami. No problem, standard up and down the line. Most of what he had to offer was praise for everyone involved, rescuers and victims alike. He's my first son, kinda quiet and unassuming. Today is his birthday, he forgot that till we wished him a happy one. Total rescues for he and his crews to this morning, 41 people and 3 dogs. An unbelievable sight from the air, he said. Houston will be forever changed and I'm sure he will be too after these past days. Prayers for all in the aftermath." This is a pretty good country.

If you're going north, my place.

Looks like a tough one. For anyone with a more than causal interest in weather, here is a link I used in my career, which shows winds at various altitudes around the world. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-103.58,13.13,302 I was primarily interested in the 250 hectopaschal chart, which was about 34,000', and the best indicator of the jetstream. In this case, it really points out the counterclockwise flow around this intense low. The default is surface winds, but you can change the altitude by selecting the "earth" thing at the bottom left, and then changing height, expressed in hPa. If you look at the 850 hPa option, (about 5000'), you can really see the energy it is pulling in. Additionally, you can zoom in and rotate the earth to anywhere you want. Pretty cool site, but it really shows this Harvey hurricane.

I'd be more inclined to wait for the results of an investigation. Still, another F-14 back seater bites the bullet.

Metastasis stage.

Are you serious?

Not to quibble, but given the nature of the weapons, I doubt any radar delivery would have been acceptable or approved, and Berlin summers are not too bad. In addition, Germany was already occupied by Allied forces. The real goal of these weapons was to prevent the massive casualties resulting in a Japanese mainland invasion.

Nagasaki. Components delivered by air.

I believe the key to finding it was the discovery that another Navy vessel had spotted and logged a sighting of the Indianapolis on the evening she was sunk. That changed the search area, but still included about 600 square miles. Such a tragic event. Thank goodness there were as many survivors as they recovered. http://www.witnesstowar.org/combat_stories/WWII/1883

But not for that reason. I read through the thread and backed up to your post, that was the first link I came to, while backing up, and it is silly. Not that complicated.