 
        sherpa
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Everything posted by sherpa
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	Bond market follower for years leads me to an Occam's razor view, because there is no single data point that argues against it. The Fed is more inclined to lower rates than otherwise. Neutral now, but certainly mort likely to lower than raise. That makes the $ less in demand.
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	KAMALA INTERVIEWS! Goes as badly as you’d expectsherpa replied to Big Blitz's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits Not the first time for CBS. Remember the fake Bush National Guard stuff that led to Dan Rather resigning?
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	Of the silly things that get posted here, economic snapshots, wherein one month data reports are judged, is among the most silly. Monthly reports have serious weaknesses and strengths. Use a six month moving average for more accurate trends. Still, always funny to watch both sides use one month data for political purposes.
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	UPDATE: ISRAEL v IRAN - Ceasefire reached?sherpa replied to Big Blitz's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits Iran was in a different place in early June 2025 than they were during this stupid agreement that was to end this year. They still threatened Israel from Lebanon, (Hezbollah), Syria, Yemen with the Houthis and Hamas. Prior to Syria falling, and the demise of Hamas and Hezbollah, a case could be made that it was in Israel's self interest to follow a strategy of delay. Once those issues ended and they accelerated, there was no reason to delay ending the program. The sole reason the Islamic religious regime exists is to pursue the goal of ending the Israeli state. Their nuclear and ballistic missile programs are solely designed for that, and to suggest other motives, ie., domestic energy production is idiotic. The time was now and the results are better than anyone imagined a month ago. If they resuscitate it, which they undoubtedly will, it will be much easier to deal with.
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	UPDATE: ISRAEL v IRAN - Ceasefire reached?sherpa replied to Big Blitz's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits Pure nonsense. The Iranian nuclear weapons program was never going to stop, and they have never abided by any agreement about it. Ever. The Israelis knew that and committed massive assets to prevent it.
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	UPDATE: ISRAEL v IRAN - Ceasefire reached?sherpa replied to Big Blitz's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits It failed because it was an insane plan, ill researched and led from Washington. I am extremely familiar with the scheme and what was going to happen if things went poorly on day two, which they probably would have. I don't know anybody "romanticizing" anything about it.
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	UPDATE: ISRAEL v IRAN - Ceasefire reached?sherpa replied to Big Blitz's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits Got any idea what probably would have happened during operation Eagle Claw if we didn't have that disaster at the "Desert 1" refueling site in April, 1980? I do, and it would have been something.
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	Ask someone who cares what you think. There is no attack on UVA. Just stupid, and you are a liar as always.
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	You are a liar. Pure and simple. A liar who attempts to marginalize people who he does not agree with by assigning fake viewpoints to them. It is dishonest and an oft used strategy here by you and others. Nonetheless, a liar.
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	I get really annoyed when people lie, especially about me, and you sir, are a liar. I never "downplayed" anything related to that. I drove through their staging area that morning, saw that group and had to wait while the police stopped traffic as they crossed, and stated that very afternoon how insane they looked. For you to claim that I ever "downplayed" it is disgusting, without any substance, and a not unusual product of your bizarre imagination.
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	UPDATE: ISRAEL v IRAN - Ceasefire reached?sherpa replied to Big Blitz's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits By the way, I cannot stand quoting stupid posts that have giant X crap in them. Often, people ask a question of someone here in a post that contains that stuff, and in order to acknowledge the question and answer it, you have to include the X thing. There's probably a way around it, but i haven't the interest in figuring that out. Anyway, without another stupid Rolling Stone thing, here is the question asked of me in that post. "What source do you have about Iran rushing to finish its nukes?" Here's the answer to that question, without Rolling Stone trash https://emetonline.org/resource/iran-violations-since-jcpoa/ Go to the 2:50 mark until about 4:00, though the entire thing is very good. He also intimates at the end that they have an idea on location re fissile material.
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	UPDATE: ISRAEL v IRAN - Ceasefire reached?sherpa replied to Big Blitz's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits 
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	UPDATE: ISRAEL v IRAN - Ceasefire reached?sherpa replied to Big Blitz's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits As long as we're doing Rolling Stone, a known neutral, (and credible), source of intl intel, can we revisit their "Rape on Campus" story? I ran into the woman who sued them over that in the produce section of our local Wegmans about a month after her suit was settled. Kind of an odd looking woman who is extremely identifiable. I told her that I had never wished for a larger settlement against a dirtbag group.
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	No, I live here and have a bunch of contacts in the UVA community, and there is no "attack." I don't even know if we have a "local Fox station," and I am hardly MAGA. Total nonsense. By the way you are steadily drifting in the Tibs and Billstime tide, stating red herrings that have no basis in reality as fact.
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	UPDATE: ISRAEL v IRAN - Ceasefire reached?sherpa replied to Big Blitz's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits So let's review, because it's been the best few months in middle east events in decades. 1. Syria collapses after an Israeli strike. 2. The collapse of Syria ends the weapons autobahn between Iran and its Hezbollah and Hamas. 3. Hezbollah basically collapses. Hamas the same. 4. Israel clears a path through Syria for the IAF to get to eastern Syria unimpeded, and thus provides a pathway to Iran, eliminating major problems doing so without fighting their way through and having to tank in the air. 5. Iran, accurately sensing that it's murderous noose around Israel is impotent, rushes into an expedited effort to finish building the nuc program and getting weapons on a delivery system. 6. Israel becomes aware of that and figures, "it's now or never." They take out the Iranian air defenses in basically two days, enjoying unfettered access to Iranian sites. 7. Iran asks Hezbollah to respond with aggression, and they don't. China and Russia, both with strategic alliances signed with Iran, in the case of Russia, just this year, don't honor the defense commitments, leaving Iran orphaned. Moreover, China tells Iran not to screw around in the Strait of Hormuz. 8. Israel destroys a good deal of the above ground nuc facilities, "neutralizes" a good deal of the scientific talent that underpins it, and decapitates the IRCG leadership, who are really the problem, as well as destroying a good deal of the ballistic missile production and operational capability of Iran, which threatens Israel and US forces. 9. The US conducts and immensely successful strike on underground facilities thought to be impenetrable, losing nobody and putting massive weapons exactly where intended. 10. The Israelis have an obviously significant humint capability inside Iran, probably still operational, and still control the airspace. The old aphorism applies: "The perfect is not the enemy of the good." The regular Iranians, non the ideologically animated religious nuts and their sycophants, did not immediately rise and throw wackos out but things are way, way better off than they were prior to the fall of Syria.
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	Oh my, the first gross hyperbole of the day. The institution is hardly being "attacked."
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	I've got two of 'em, and one is doing my knee replacement in a few weeks.
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	UPDATE: ISRAEL v IRAN - Ceasefire reached?sherpa replied to Big Blitz's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits The day I care about your judgement of my intelligence is never going to happen. Funny though, in the same post you offer info that Iranian Officials communication was intercepted by the US. Think they don't know they are monitored? Think this "revelation" is meaningful in the least?
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	Another Marv Levy mistake. Shortly after he was drafted I was at a Univ. of Virginia baseball game. Sitting next to me was a guy who had a kid on the opposing team and we got to talking. He told me he was a regional scout for an AFC east franchise. Didn't name it, but I figured it was probably the Ravens. Anyway, I asked him if he knew anything about Ko Simpson and he made this face gesture with eyes rolling which I assumed to be a negative view. He said ya, he knew about him and then said "Believe the Wonderlic."
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	When Pete heard that the strike in Iran was launched from "Whiteman Air Force Base" in Missouri, he was shocked. He stated that if he had been appointed a civilian position in DOD instead on Treasury Secretary, on his first day he would have commandeered one of the small jets the military uses for VIP transports, been flown to a civilian airport near Knob Noster, MO., SUV'ed it to a spot a mile away from the main gate, then helmeted and goggled up and pedaled to the main gate, and using non VOC paint and a recycled paint brush and hand painted over any sign using the traumatizing, divisive moniker. "Whiteman just won't do, at least on my watch," he was heard to claim.

 
					
						 
					
						 
					
						 
					
						 
					
						 
					
						 
					
						