sherpa

NATO made the decision to not engage in direct military action weeks ago. It is way too late now. This plays out with the Russians trying to run the country, and that won't work well, especially since their, (Russian) economy is going to be destroyed by sanctions and voluntary withdrawals by scores of different industry groups. The smart thing now is to prevent the massive loss of life that any late hour offensive would result in. So much for your "drone/Stinger/Javelin" strategy.

I don't know, but I am very concerned about confrontations on the International Space Station? Maybe a symbolic lockout of the Russians from the head?

I don't think it matters how trained his troops were. It is a screaming example of horrible strategy and planning, and that is done at way higher levels.

It's hyperbaric, not hyperbolic.

Biden didn't come to this conclusion, it was provided to him by US Intel sources. He doesn't have that skill. Based on the Russian military performance in this hideous operation, him taking this to WWIII would be as stupid as the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. His only strength against NATO, even as weak as it is militarily now, is the nuc threat. NATO is going to get stronger, and after a week of this Russian adventure, he has managed to alienate is country, largely eliminate them from intl trade, caused Germany to shred its pacifist posture, cause Finland and Sweden to lean towards NATO and now even sway Switzerland, who never opposed Hitler. The only thing he has left is a nuclear threat, and hopefully, the Russians will realize that is an idiotic, course. Whatever the Russian word is for Valkryie, they need to think about it. The Russian military performance has been amateur and pathetic.

And in historical context, they've already lost it. I haven't looked at the inventory since the start of the war, but before that, they were showing SU24' and 25's, which are ground attack. Tough to really get accurate data on some of these things. If you've got a gun, you have some capability, even if you're primarily air to air.

The Russians have evidently ended the Ukrainian Air Force. The photos of an alleged 15 mile long convoy of Russian artillery only 17 miles from Kiev suggests that there is no air opposition available. If there was, that convoy could be wiped out like the Iraqi highway of death.

When I say I never saw them, I meant I never fought them there. Based at Lemoore, we spent a lot of time at the Yuma TACTS range in the winter. We used to do a det every Feb with the Canadians down there, and always used it to train new guys in the F-18 RAG. Kind of funny watching TopGun and seeing the same room we debriefed in all the time. This pic is from there:

The A7E at sea, then with the adversaries, the A4 Superfox,, F5 and the F-18. Never saw them at the Yuma range, which we were at all the time. As you state, such a small community. I think I remember every engagement with a Harrier, 'cause it's such a weird adversary. My brain was better then, but I think I could still draw them up.

Drones are effective until the drone target, with some anti air capability, gets annoyed by them. At that point, they are paper airplanes. They are really slow. They have very limited weapon payload capability. They have no defensive capability, no maneuverability, and can be jammed.

Sure. Thinking back, and as an adversary, having fought all US forces and a number of other countries, the only time I ever fought Harriers was off Kadena, and only once. Didn't see a lot of your guys.

Thanks for the response. I taught and fought the Soviet Air Force to our guys for years, and you are correct. The issue isn't us vs. them The issue is why are they not using their obvious advantage over the Ukrainians?

No I don't, and I'll respectfully answer. Whoever is running this operation for the Russians, and I assume based on Russian current history, is that it is being run from the Kremlin. The Russian Air Force has near peer capability with the US. Not as good, but not more than one generation behind. They are well equipped and well trained. They lack US capability in coordinating force and coordinating all assets. They also lack the independence that US pilots have, being far more dependent on ground control. Anyway, for whatever reason, they are not using their capability, which would overwhelm the Ukraine. If the US was running this thing, the first day would be an absolute onslaught of air power that would have wiped out the air defense system of the enemy, resulting in not air superiority, but air supremacy, meaning they could conduct ground operations with no air threat. US pilots have a bond with our ground guys, which is, essentially, we can't do what you do from here, but we will ensure that you can do it without being bothered, and we will be over you the whole time. The Russians had this capability, but I think they didn't want the video of that operation, thinking they could get this done with much less mess. Clearly, that hasn't worked. As horrible as this human tragedy is, the incompetence is a gift for the west.

A few points. I get by your pic in front of a Harrier that you may know something about military stuff. After sea duty, I got into the Pacific Fleet Adversary Squadron, the is the Navy equivalent of the US Air Force aggressors. You may know what that involved, but for those that don't, we studied Soviet tactics and deployed them against US and other countries air forces. A few points from a guy who has a bit of experience in this. There is no real proof that his "helos and fighters have been getting shot out of the sky by Stingers." I am very skeptical of that. The new Stingers are far more capable, but they have very limited altitude capability, roughly 16,000'. Very lethal for slow movers and helos, but not much of a serious threat for the front line Russian fighters. We never took shoulder stuff as much of a threat, and if the Russians front line fighters are getting shot down by them, they are idiots, which they weren't in their recent action in Syria. I don't believe it. The "ghost of Kyiv, " is pure fiction. the original video was a computer graphic entry. Nice propaganda, but silly.

The only emotion is laughter.

I think it's his first war.

I think we got enough game film on them in Syria, a short time ago. The Russian reluctance to use its Air Force to their capability seems like an attempt to not lose the PR battle, but they are grossly beyond that now. Reading sanctions/air space prohibitions and a host of other responses against them from the rest of the world is like trying to read the school closing list on a snowy day on the south.

What is most interesting is that he has not used his air advantage, which is huge and would be a game changer. Perhaps he was overconfident is his four prong ground forces, a strategy which hasn't worked at all. Using his air force to its significant capability would tip the scales immediately, but it would be very messy, and whatever blowback he thought he would get from his invasion would pale if he turned the Russian Air Force loose.

Absolutely, and that is why the domestic response is so important. Fortunately, the threat to Russia and the Putin regime is not military. Nobody is threatening the Russian citizen. That might trigger a response we don't want to consider. If his regime is simply eroded internally, which by next week or next month has a much greater probability, that option is removed.

I never start threads, but i think the other one is getting off target, and descending into a Trump/Biden thing, which I am not interested in. What is a reasonable conclusion regarding this Russian adventure into the Ukraine? My view is that Putin has committed political suicide; probably not on the domestic level, but internationally, he is done. I don't think that there is any chance he tries to expand beyond this disaster. I think he has galvanized the international community on the need to separate from Russian trade re the energy market. I believe he has given NATO a booster shot, to include tempting some other nations to join. I don't think they will, but I think they will lean far more in that direction than a month ago. Specifically, I don't think the Ukrainians will ever agree to be subservient to a Putin puppet government, no matter the outcome of this. I think the rest of the world will support them in opposition, and make the "occupation" impossible, not that any Russian occupation has ever worked. I think this is the end of the Russian dream to ever restore a Soviet style, centralized nation. I think this will impact China negatively as well, though not immediately apparent, but eventually. Further, though I think the next few days/weeks will be a rough watch, I think Putin has accelerated us to a better time. On the periphery, I really hope that the world's people get some realistic energy supply view.

Nobody dropped the ball. Russians chose their leader, his vector and are going to live with the results.

Ya. I say so, as would anyone else who knows a thing about what you are suggesting.

Idiotic. Sorry for the lack of tact, but you continue to post stuff that is absolutely crazy.

Agree, and makes the ensuing occupation far more difficult. Installing a puppet gov that is successful and does Putin's bidding seems impossible. Support for the Ukraine now extends far beyond western democracies, NATO or any other political consortium. He has isolated his country in a manner almost impossible to imagine. His problem, among others, is that his own people will know it.

I couldn't agree more. I have been very suspicious of claims made because lack of evidence and the fact that what is claimed makes no military sense. Either Putin/Russian are the stupidest strategists in history, or something else is up. This "Ghost" thing seems to be a recreation of the Jude Law character in "Enemy at the Gates," and pops up the second day. The "shootdown" of two transports, one which is claimed to have been carrying dozens of paratroopers makes no military sense. If you are going to do a para drop, and those troops are being carried in a slow moving "grape," which is the term used by tacair guys in the US to indicate something more than an easy target, you escort it with at least four fighters. Two would stay with it to defend against fighter interventions, and two to accelerated ahead and clear the target area, a tactic called a Mig sweep. Either the Russians are fighting the most stupid war in history, or this stuff is pretty suspicious. Regarding this thread, the suggestion that drones could handle the Russian ground forces is preposterous, but when posted from a guy who seems to be watching his first war, not surprising. The "game day thread" approach lacks nothing but a "push 'em back. Push 'em back way back" cheerleader thing. On a good note, I think this is the end of Putin. This is so one sided in the international public opinion perspective, that he is done. Hopefully, he doesn't do anything really stupid in the endgame.