sherpa
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Posts posted by sherpa
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5 minutes ago, LeviF said:
Considering what Churchill would later say about the attack, it wouldn't surprise me to learn that the British knew and said nothing. Churchill would say that when he laid his head down on 12/07/41, deep in his bones he knew that the war was won.
Check out Major Frederick Rutland, and how the British stashed him in 1941 when his espionage for the Japanese became apparent.
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4 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:
There are plenty of theories suggesting the U.S. knew in advance that the attack was coming.
The US didn't.
Far, far more likely that the British did know, but there is no compelling evidence that anybody really knew, though they should have.
Embryonic intel performance, but ultimately, a Japanese suicide.
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29 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:
Valid period was 00Z to 24Z. FM "from" 1900 until the end of the valid period, genius.
Don't try to explain something you clearly don't understand.
But we all know you will because you're "that guy."
I have read them and "understood" them for many decades, including many format changes.
To use your quote, and I am extremely informed on how to read it, it is from 2pm Buffalo time, until 7pm Buffalo time, ending a full hour and a half before game time.
That is the 1900Z forecast you included.
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18 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:
Right, so the valid time at the top is just irrelevant. When I did these forecasts I did them for a 24 hour period as accurately as possible, like we're supposed to. But they're done every 8 hours and amended in between for accuracy because high accuracy is important.....
The forecast is for a period of hours as depicted.
Within that "period" are individual periods, often four hours, but it varies based on the expected changes within that overall period. Rapidly changing weather causes more "FM's."
That's the "FM" meaning "from."
That is why the forecast that you provided specifically states those limited periods, as I have quoted.
Same thing every day, everywhere.
It is ridiculous to assume that a single forecast would be valid for 24 hours.
They aren't and they never have been.
The 24 hours contains many individual time periods within, as you linked.
Personal crap aside, I don't care.
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3 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:
You don't hate it. You love it. Although, it seems like you didn't look at the valid time. 0624z. Tafs cover a 24 hour period.
Absolutely not true.
TAFs are for relatively short periods.
That's why, in you original post which I quoted contains the following:
"FM 060200
FM 060600
FM 060900
FM 061200
FM 061600
FM 061900"
The valid forecast periods are for a few hours each, and the last one you mentioned was for mid afternoon.
It is not true that any specific aviation forecast would cover a 24 hour period.
I'm not sure whether people here know what these are used for, but they have extremely significant impacts on flight planning and dispatching, especially in the long haul. international realm, as they determining fuel loads an alternates, and can ultimately determine allowable routes and passenger loads.
Again, I hate to bring it up, but if someone else does, and I know the premise to be wrong, as in pointing out a 2pm forecast for an 8:30 game, I will.
Respectfully.
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16 minutes ago, Motorin' said:
And what is the shape of the building in relation to the wind off the lake? Do the upper decks block the wind coming off Lake Erie, or are the endzones open to wind?
Any structure always blocks wind, unless it's a tornado.
That is not to say it won't be a factor.
Winds coming over a structure will be deflected down to some degree, and when they get in a confined space will swirl.
The structure doesn't have any "open end zones."
It has a minor tunnel that is enclosed.
The wind forecast for this evening's game are locked solid from the west. Not from the lake.
The stadium is oriented northwest-southeast.
The winds will be perpendicular to the structure, but will change a bit throughout the game as the low moves further east.
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5 minutes ago, Motorin' said:
The reason why wind is such a problem is because the field is dug into the ground which creates a wind tunnel effect and causes swirling winds across the field.
Simply aerodynamically false.
Any structure effects wind.
Being below grade means nothing.
It is simply the shape of the building as it relates to the direction/velocity of the wind.
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8 hours ago, LeGOATski said:
Can't wait to see tomorrow's KBUF TAF. Current one still has gusts at 50+ mph through the end of the forecast (7pm local), just before game time. No precip.
KBUF 052347Z 0600/0624 10012KT P6SM BKN050 WS020/18040KT
FM061900 25025G46KT P6SM BKN035
I hate to bring this up again, but it comes up again and again.
The 061900 time is GMT.
That is 2pm EST.
All TAF times are GMT.
The latest TAF valid at 07000, (7pm EST this evening) is:
Winds from the W (260 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 knots; 10.3 m/s) gusting to 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.0 m/s).
Not a great difference in velocity, but when reading TAF's, you must subtract five hours from the valid time during EST, or four hours during Daylight Savings Time.
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I would be really disappointed if I thought the Bills players cared about the weekly national media that spits out NFL nonsense.
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No worries.
The Bills under Sean McDermott have a totally accurate 3d model of the stadium.
Before the game, they will enter the exact winds into the wind tunnel with the model.
There will be no surprises.
Josh will be droppin' them in like a Steve Carlton slider.
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19 minutes ago, billsfanmiamioh said:
I have seasons in the lower level (row 27) and you can often look up at the flags on top of the stadium and see them pointing straight out. Meanwhile the ones on the goalposts will swirl and vary in intensity. And down closer to field level you’ll feel comparatively little. It really is a strange stadium for wind. That McKenzie kickoff muff earlier in the year was a great example.I think all are "strange."
The prevailing winds in the area are from the southwest.
The stadium is oriented NW-SE, with the tunnel at the SE side, putting it crosswind to the prevailing wind, and minimizing the effect.
The tunnel is ultimately enclosed, so not that big of an aerodynamic deal.
I have no idea if it was placed with this orientation in order to minimize the effect of having one direction enjoy tailwind, while the other battles a headwind, but it sure looks that way.
Either way, weather systems produce winds from different directions based on the location of the highs and lows, but it looks like the place was oriented with knowledge of these facts.
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The 20mph forecast is for a basic open, windsock location.
At field level, it should be less, unless they knock down the walls.
Less velocity, but less directional consistency.
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13 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:
I find this strangely erotic.
Open air for you then?
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58 minutes ago, Tiberius said:
Nice to have the freedom of choice, right?
Our judgement had nothing to do with "choice."
It had to do with judging what my wife was carrying was a life, and we treated them that way.
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I really get a kick out of these weather posts.
I hope the rank and file understand that the original post that included a surface weather depiction chart was for 0000Z, 6 Dec.
A simple understanding reveals that the time of that forecast is for 7pm Sunday in Buffalo.
Can we wait until at least Saturday night to panic?
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1 hour ago, Protocal69 said:
I read before that because of bottom being underground the stadium is like bowl and the wind just whips around with no where to go. That may not be the exact explanation but thats the jist of it
It doesn't have anywhere to go because it is obstructed by the structure, same as any other mostly closed in stadium.
Having the field below grade makes no difference.
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2 hours ago, Protocal69 said:
Its what causes the wind to whip around in the stadium which makes kicking in there tricky especially in the winter time
I would like to see an explanation showing how being built sub grade makes it more windy.
Nearly 100% of the time, wind is stronger with an increase in elevation from grade.
The wind whips around because it is very often windy at that location, and the architecture of the structure, including the tunnel.
There are things that could be done to mitigate it.
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Nothing is confusing.
I stand by what I said, as always.
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52 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:
Your first 3 sentences in that post seem very critical with the intent to undermine his claim. How else do you expect people to take it? It's obvious that you have an issue with it.
To be clear, his claim also comes off as disingenuous to me. I was enlisted AF for 7 years, 1 in reserve, and was around plenty of 2Lts. I know none of them truly lead anything, lol. Granted, I don't doubt that a guy like Chad Hall probably stood out amongst his peers and may have been more apt for leadership roles.
That said, if you were just curious, you could've simply said something like "how did he get out after only 2 years?" Or "I wonder if he had to be on reserve status for a while?"
You quoted two posts, and then referred to the first three sentences "in that post."
Since you quoted two I'm not sure which one you were referring two.
It seems like the first.
If so, those three sentences are accurate.
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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
What you wrote comes across to several as critical of him and wanting to take it up. Just for your own calibration purposes, no salesman will call.
I'm not interested in whether "any salesman will call."
Not in the least.
To the point, is it "critical of him" to bring up questions regarding the claims in your first post?
There was a bit of misinformation in that, and it caused me to look at the situation, because it made no sense.
A statement of fact is, in no way, any critique on his active duty.
Great for the guy. No issue from me. Couldn't be happier for him.
The narrative then became, as it often does, some false perception.
The point is that nobody serves only two years after an academy graduate commission wherein a guy's four years are paid for along with room and board and a modest monthly stipend for other expenses, and I was wondering if he had fulfilled some kind of reserve commitment.
I am quite aware of how these waivers are granted, and it would never happen in the other two services, if that's all there is to the story.
No problem at all with our receivers coach.
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20 minutes ago, Apocalypse Nuts said:
Former Army MP here. Born in a Navy hospital actually, and known many Marines throughout my life. Just remember, Sherpa, the only people that are really impressed with your USMC cynicism are your fellow Marines (enlisted mostly). When I read your words here I get the distinct feeling of being in some bar in Jacksonville, NC or similar having a few cold ones with a couple testosterone-laden dudes with really short haircuts, if you catch my drift. It just doesn't go over the same with the rest of the population, civilian or otherwise. I mean we all know you dogs are the tough guys of the services, we know. No need to rub it in further.
(Smiley face wink)
Not sure where you got the idea I was in the Marine Corps.
Oh well.
The only point I was trying to make was that service academy grads, or any other commissioned officers, incur active duty obligations far beyond two years, including athletic scholarship folks, and second lieutenants don't "command" squadrons.
The Air Force uses the term "squadron" on a much broader basis than the other services, but that's not important.
The rules used to be strictly enforced, but in the recent past they have allowed those people to apply for waivers. This was done to remain competitive at the D1 level, but not guaranteed.
I have never heard of any individual being released after just two year, unless there was a medical condition, so I thought there must be more to the story, ie., a reserve commitment that wasn't mentioned in either the link or the Wiki info.
I'm happy for him and pleased that he is successful.
That's it.
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20 minutes ago, Returntoglory said:
Which Branch did you serve under?
US Navy.
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28 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
I guess you'd want to take it up with him on the front of "integrity first" then, since I believe that's accurately what he said.
As far as the service committment
Changed in 2016, see above. Happened on a case by case basis before that.
I am not interested in taking it up with anybody.
The link you provided informs that academy graduates can serve in the reserves to fulfill their service obligation.
Nowhere does it state that he did so, or is doing so, and he clearly was not a highly recruited high schooler, as it states in the original that he was only offered by service academies.
It used to be that the requirement was enforced.
Later, as it became obvious that in order to recruit top talent and stay in D1, the service academies would consider waivers. Many are in consideration now.
I have served with many, and have never heard of anyone released after a single two year tour.
Great for him.
No issue here.
It's just something I have never heard of, and if the facts are simply those that are presented in this thread, it is a very bad financial idea for our services.
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41 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:
Great job, Sherpa!
Not really that great of a job.
It poses more questions.
How does a guy get four years of elite college education at taxpayer's expense, and serve only two years of active duty?
In the old days, before a change which allowed Service Secretaries to rule on this kind of thing, Roger Staubach fulfilled his commitment.
David Robinson, NBA for all non basketball fans, got a sketchy waiver as he grew too much during his Naval Academy days to permit him to serve in various capacities.
The service academies have been allowed various advantages to permit them to recruit in order to compete at D1 level, like not having to abide by the scholarship totals.
Still, I have never heard of a service academy grad getting out after only two years without some other issue.
The usual commitment is five years active duty and three years reserve, for eight years total.
Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦
in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Posted
Disagree completely.
The oil card has been played.
Oil is plentiful and massive amounts can be easily brought online.
The Russians haven't nearly the power that is ascribed to them.
They simply don't understand that until they are hit over the head with their lack of perceived strength.
It has happened many time before.