ny33

How does a pre snap penalty offset with holding? BS

O line and Gore have been outstanding too. Pass blocking was actually very good often in the last 3 games, but also had a ton of missed blocks and blitz struggles that should moderate as they gel and Allen understand how quickly he needs to get the ball out to succeed.

Will never know how the same guy starts off the halves so differently, but at least it looks like these Bills will find a way to stay in games no matter what. Beat the Pats and underline that this team can be a real contender if he can put together 4 quarters of smart and quick play consistently.

Feels like it’s critical for him to get into a rhythm with the dinks to RBs/Beasley in order to feel confident in throwing or even looking past the first down marker.

Allen occasionally has two or three drives a game where he plays at an elite level. I don’t know how if the mental mistakes and confidence swings are likely to disappear, but it’s frustrating to see how someone who has all the tools and occasionally executes at a high level can look like a completely different QB and get absolutely nothing going. It’s very different from guys like Losman or Grossman who had the talent but rarely or never had the one or two great drives that Josh puts together every game, getting rid of the ball quickly and accurately or deciding to quickly throw it away. Just bizarre to see the extent of regression at the start of this game after managing strong drives at the start of the previous games this season.

If Brady or one of the other elite QBs had this defense, it would be considered one of the best of this decade. Incredible how well they play with little rest and on short fields when “bad Josh” is fully in play.

He’s always reckless in the pocket and liable for mindless throws, but isn’t willing to throw into coverage early or at all. When he gets into a rhythm and nails 11-12 passes he looks like a hell of a QB. No idea how the same guy can be so tentative.

I don’t understand how someone who comes out guns blazing falls apart after some mistakes and confidently leads drives in 4th quarter tight games. How has he had no confidence since before even throwing a turnover? It feels like he is so scared of turning over the ball in toss up situations, even with good blocking, and digs himself into a corner. Sad to see scared play from a guy who does very well when he trusts himself and makes quick decisions. We would be up with average QB play given the performance of the rest of the team (d, return game, blocking and run game).

The network needs to show coverage downfield on replays. It feels like half the game is cut off, especially on the many plays where Allen holds the ball forever and doesn’t want to throw into any sort of coverage.

Inexcusable to not throw when an INT is the same as a punt. Hate when he loses confidence and doesn’t throw into tight coverage.

If Allen manages to avoid the regular 2nd/3rd quarters of 50 yards and a turnover or three, we move the chains well enough to have a chance in every game. It’s mostly on him, but the coaches need to throw out more jumbo sets against the 3rd quarter blitzes until the game slows down enough for him. Given his rushing ability, we can contain QB spies and hit the outside with DiMarco leading into the TE/WR block. Would like to see some option plays and more quick throws to the double TEs or slot in a heavy set and pick up the pace vs. outside blitzes.

0 turnovers (even if 0 from the Pats’ end)- 5. Losing that battle and without Singletary, a 2.

Probably. But our defense has contained Brady over the last 4 games without an NFL offense/the worst starting field position defensively in the league last year. We aren’t the Chiefs at the skill positions, but are at least average. If we can force short drives and win the turnover battle, the game is winnable if Allen controls his instinct to extend every play. Without Singletary, he needs to be confident in throwing deep balls to a Brown/Foster/McKenzie and trust his guys to beat the coverage like Foster managed to last year instead of worrying about a pick in the opponent’s 20 (Roethlisberger and Rodgers recognize the cost/benefit of throwing 50/50 balls deep, and Josh needs to be not be afraid of throwing a pick that would otherwise be a touchdown after making a rookie mistake/multiple turnovers like the Jets game). If we can contain the early down throws for 7 or so to Edelman/White/Burkhead in the slot or to the flat and limit 5+ yard first down runs, Brady is going to have to take shots downfield. Worried about the Gordon matchup especially in the red zone, but we match up fairly well vs. a Gronkless team if Brady can’t routinely chip in safe passes on early downs. We need him to take some time to pick his poison and will get coverage sacks/end drives if we give the 4-man rush the coverage to get a few shots in over the game (especially from Oliver up the middle). The Bills are obviously not on par with the Rams, but 14-17 points and a +2 turnover differential is a reasonable scenario. Don’t think Josh can put together a mistake-free 60 minute game yet, which we would need, vs. the Pats with a limited running game, but I’ll be thrilled if we can keep the game within a score in the 4th.

We are much weaker without Singletary than any of our other skill position players other than, perhaps, Brown. A clean game from Josh gives us a fighting chance to win a defensive game of field position, but it’s going to be much harder without a big play RB threat. On the bright side, we are better off having him fully healed by next week than playing at even 95% with injury aggravation risk and a few more weeks for a full recovery. Hamstrings can easily go from a 1-2 week recovery period to a grade 2/3 sprain that keeps him out half the season if a team rushes a player back too early. I’d rather have him full speed for the Titans game; without his jump start of the offense, we lose to the Jets and will lose to Tennessee on the road without a running game that dares a stacked box.

If Allen is good enough and the o-line continues to play reasonably well for the investment, would like to see Beane go WR/RB in the first and second or third. Josh has a long way to go, but we would have a legitimate set of weapons adding to the skill positions early. More likely we take an OL or DE, but Brown + rookie on the outside (a few guys in a very strong class who are good enough to make an impact early), Beasley underneath, and Foster/McKenzie as spread threats would be above average paired with the promising rookies (who Allen and Daboll already trust, even in tight coverage) and 2 top RB options would let us exploit mismatches as teams like the Pats and Saints do so well with their RBs and receiving depth. Singletary is so important early this season as Allen still takes too long to make his reads and frequently fails to see an open outside receiver; having him + Beasley open for quick underneath throws is so important to our tempo and quick decisions from Josh instead of waiting for his first read to break coverage. If Yeldon can’t force the Pats to cover the wide flat, we are going to see some ugly forced balls to Jones and Brown and let the Pats keep one or both safeties over the top on Brown/go routes. Belichick will dial up the pressure when Allen gets rattled, and we need to be able to drive the ball mid game after a turnover or series of short drives. Josh has the confidence and ability to start out very strong and believe in/execute the 4th quarter comebacks vs. inferior teams, but we need to start playing 4 quarters of consistent offensive pressure even if we struggle to convert drives to touchdowns. The defense doesn’t get nearly enough credit for keeping up the effort level and intensity given how frequently they are on the field mid game with poor field position. When Dalton switched to a hurry up offense after the offense fell flat, the D did a good job of containing, but looked average and let the Bengals move the chains through the air on 1st/2nd downs instead of forcing them to chip in 2-4 yard runs and convert 4-6 yard third downs (eliminating jumbo sets/QB sneaks and forcing Dalton to throw into double coverage around the marker). Good teams rarely have lifeless offenses for large stretches of the game, and we need to control the tempo to give us a chance (not impossible if we win the turnover battle and incremental field position/chip in field goals).

I’m happy with what Beane has done with the receiving corps and don’t blame the team for letting Watkins go. Woods wanted to be home in LA, and Goodwin needs a legitimate QB/other receiving talent to be effective. Just was surprised that we were comfortable with last year’s offense/Peterman as the veteran for our rookie QB out of Wyoming. Giving up a 3rd for Benjamin, who completely lacks the requisite motivation to be a professional football player, is one of Beane’s worst moves, in my book, as they should have had a much clearer sense of Benjamin’s work ethic and fall-off at the conditioning level he was in at the time of acquisition & as a Bill, plus reports that he needed a rookie to tell him where to line up. The past offseason’s moves are shaping up to be the most impactful and shrewd of any team. Brown is good enough, in my book, to be the best WR on a Super Bowl team; he’s bounced back better from adversity (health issues in Arizona) and was playing extremely well for Baltimore; shocked that he didn’t cost 2-3x more and receive more offers. The o-line has quality starters at backup prices, above-average depth, and no players who shouldn’t be starting in the NFL (compared to a number of past lines with 1-3 starters who barely belonged on a roster). Watkins is in the team’s past, and Beasley/Brown were clearly the right fits/targets. If he’s healthy, having Foster in a backup role to Brown/additional deep threat in a two-minute offense is a real asset, even if he doesn’t put up the quietly top-32 numbers that he did in Brown’s role last year, which was crucial to Allen’s development. This is the first year that I can see the team being able to afford drafting the best available luxury/mismatch player (especially in a great WR draft) unless they have concerns with the o-line.

Wasn’t on the board for a while until recently, but ludicrous that people would have been a “fit” issue with Watkins. He played hard, clearly demonstrated an elite skill set, and never had a QB/TE (though played with an excellent receiver in Woods and a weapon in Goodwin). Giving up an extra first for a receiver was inexcusable for a team without a QB, and too many people see Sammy as a failure in Buffalo because of the compensation relative to our draft capital investment. Maybe a change of scenery/playing for two losing teams as a top 5 pick has helped to motivate him in KC, but I’m sure he would have been open to staying here and would have helped Josh’s development/the team tremendously. It’s pathetic that we went from Watkins/Woods/Goodwin to having an undrafted rookie cut mid season be our only talent at wideout last year (+ some promising role player types like McKenzie, who looks more decisive and is a great 4th/5th option assuming he has cured his fumbleitis. 4 YPC/his receiving numbers are good enough for your third RB. Obviously we would be better off with McCoy, and probably should have drafted another RB in the 5th or so, but plenty of teams have just two RBs who are just serviceable enough to rotate in. Would prefer to have kept Murphy over Yeldon, and the Bengals fumble should have been the last straw, but the team obviously sees some upside if he’s still hanging on.

He has receiving skills and occasionally makes impact plays. I agree that a backup RB with ball protection issues and a tendency to “dance”/slight build isn’t what you want from a 5th-year backup RB. The Jags were/are a mess, though, and I do think that this team’s culture/hunger to win can and does rub off (don’t see Foster “getting it” in a Jalen Ramsey/Blake Bortles locker room vs. a relatively ego-free Bills locker room and Josh’s infectious competitive attitude).

Yeldon was actually a very solid receiving back last year- 55 catches, 70% catch rate, 487 yards (8.9 ypr). Hate having backup running backs who are constant risks for fumbles, though, especially against a disciplined team like the Pats; would almost prefer to have a guy like Ivory, who had clearly lost a step last year, but played damn hard and protected the ball/was a better receiver than everyone but Foster and late season Zay.

Let’s hope Yeldon shows up motivated. He’s a fairly talented player who has the talent to at least have a role/impact similar to a Latavius Murray, and hopefully going from a hyped Alabama prospect/second rounder to being on the fringe of being cut after another fumble stirs something in him. I don’t think we win this game without a solid game from both RBs, and it definitely hurts to not have a healthy Singletary (or McCoy) as a change of pace/outside/ passing game threat. Don’t think we can run effectively without threatening sweeps/pitches. We have the blocking scheme and makeup/deep threat to effectively run end-arounds/sweeps from a Foster/McKenzie/Brown and have to mix it up vs. the Pats, but Gore is going to have a rough game if we can’t threaten change of pace rushing plays (o-line is pretty good at getting initial leverage/creating room for our RBs). Really wish we had McCoy right now, especially with an o-line that meshes with his skill set.

If anything, an overhaul of this magnitude should complicate Belichick's game preparation and reduce his ability to focus gameplanning around Allen. The offensive line clearly needs more time to gel, but the receivers have generally looked to be in great sync with Allen (plenty of impact drops but few clear examples of route miscommunication/playbook limitation). The Pats have had much less turnover than in years past (Belichick didn't draft well early in the middle of the decade), and Gordon's play/physical makeup somewhat compensate for the irreplaceable loss of Gronk. Brown is a sharp burner who does virtually all an NFL team should expect from a 1/2 receiver (creates mismatches, consistently gets open, and doesn't make mistakes), Beasley is great at getting open underneath and is a major reason for Josh's faster decision-making, the TEs have a ton of promise and have looked very good blocking/in space/catching other than a few drops that would have resulted in big plays/touchdowns, but look to have solid hands and are well ahead of the rookie curve. Easy to forget that Zay Jones was miles ahead of our washed up (Kerley, Holmes) #3-4 types and the pathetic effort of Kelvin Benjamin (who would have a starting job in the NFL, instead of being out of the league as a healthy 28-year-old with multiple seasons of above-average starter play in his early career). Always so disappointing to see players who waste their talent and opportunity and show no passion for winning. Clay was done by 2018, and it was incredible to see how we went from Watkins/Goodwin/Woods to zero starting-caliber talent until Foster had his wake up call and gave Allen a reliable downfield threat (not worried about the lack of statistics given his foot injury and Brown's excellence in the same role. If Foer is primarily invisible due to some combination of injury and the addition of a strong veteran in Bwn to fill his role, rather than personal failings (conditioning, motivation, responsibility etc.), Allen will have a range of legitimate threats. Hopefully this is the game for Foster to step up again and punish the Pats for ignoring a deep threat who was so critical in driving Allen's strong play/confidence to nd last season.

If we can handle Gordon and limit Edelman to a Crowder-like game, I like our chances in a game where Josh doesn't turn over the ball (first half drives have actually been very strong until the momentum-killing turnovers, good enough to put up points on 3-4 drives before halftime and keep our defense rested. My biggest concern is how we will handle their two-minute/red zone offense without quick wins from our defensive line (Brady thrives vs. extra rushers, and our LBs will be needed in coverage against the pass-catching RBs/Edelman). We always had a tough time with Gronk and I'm curious to see if we can keep up if we don't turn over the ball on poor fumble protection or an indefensible throw. I'm not worried about this team's ability to keep drives going and score in the red zone- we do both relatively well against the league and are miles better than past Buffalo teams. Force two turnovers, commit zero on a stupid pass or backfield fumble, and we can legitimately hang with the Pats. I'll be very happy to see the D continue to prove they are elite along with a smart game from Josh in a close game against a Pats team that has no glaring weaknesses (not always the case, and NE/KC look a cut above the other clear contenders).

Curious as to why you rank Dawkins so highly (I haven't paid as much attention to the o-line as I would like this season). I've seen more criticism of than praise for Dawkins' play this season from the fanbase and marginally-informed writers, neither of which is likely to be particularly unemotional/attentive to offensive line play, but am curious as to the discrepancy (great to hear if he looks much improved from a disappointing sophomore campaign to date).

IIRC we rolled over $3m from cutting McCoy, which is definitely material, but not likely to affect the way the team handles free agency and extensions next offseason. Our focus next spring is likely to be juggling extensions for underpaid vets like Poyer/Hyde, pay bumps for the offseason pickups on one-year deals who look like steals so far, and planning for Allen/Edmunds/Milano/White etc.'s extensions. If we can manage to mitigate our cap spend in 2021/2022 on the promising young core (heavy upfront money in 2020 for the safeties/Lawson if we extend, maybe), cutting McCoy will have been worth it, but I'm not certain how feasible that is. As for the Pegulas, I'm certain they would defer to Beane's decision, but I would imagine that potentially cutting the team's biggest name (borderline HoF whose 2018 performance was tricky to evaluate, though McCoy clearly is declining somewhat physically) would be at least noted to the owners ahead of the final cutdown (even if the Pegulas would always defer to Beane on personnel, likely that they and the marketing team etc. would want to plan around the possibility.

There's no question that Lamar is vastly improved from last year, and he looked like someone who can potentially play at a consistently elite level (does an above-average job of progressing through reads and getting rid of the ball), but he struggled against a mediocre Chiefs defense, and needs to prove that he can be effective vs. average or better defenses. KC is average at best defensively, besides a strong defensive line, but Reid and other good coaches with experience will gameplan and make adjustments that the rookie head coach of, perhaps, the worst team in NFL history, and a first-year offensive mind from the college ranks with some promising talent but a bottom-five roster can't. Ravens fans should be very happy with him, but let's see how he does vs. elite defenses and in his 2nd games vs. division opponents (Bengals have major weaknesses but some impact players esp. at DL, Steelers look historically terrible but will play a physical game vs. a bitter rival, and the Browns have a playoff-caliber D with some gamebreakers, particularly Garrett.