2003Contenders

I commented in another thread, that I believe the team's greatest weakness (even greater than its underwhelming number of blue chip players) is its lack of depth. They should try to keep serviceable players like Poz and Whitner so long as it doesn't break the bank. (In Whitner's case, it looks like he expects them to break the bank for him, which means adios.)

Many fans in Houston said something similar back in 2003 when the Texans took Andre Johnson with the #3 overall pick, one pick after the Lions drafted a "can't miss" WR from Michigan State named Charles Rogers. Look, I think they need to go after some big men (both OL and DL) before they do anything else, but if they honestly have this kid ranked as their top NFL player, they shouldn't by-pass him.

I know both of these last two losses hurt because they were so out-classed in both contests. However, a closer look reveals that the team was playing with practice squad players in a number of key positions in both games. The team that was routed in back-to-back weeks by the Pats (who have been crushing EVERYBODY) and the Jets was very different from the team that peaked 4 or 5 weeks ago. That healthier team played toe-to-toe with the Ravens, Chiefs, Steelers, and Bears -- four teams who have made it into the playoffs, two of which have a bye in the first round. The problem continues to be depth, which I am hoping will be partially remedied with a good draft in April. With better depth, a little better luck in the injury department and a few solid improvements here and there, I believe that this team can compete with MOST of the teams in the league.

Do you think she really thought Cinci was better? I believe the anti-Buffalo thing was sour grapes when Lewis didn't get the head coaching gig back in 2001. What I heard was that Gregg, who was an underdog at the time for the job, really blew Donahoe away in his interview. Meanwhile, Lewis, was perhaps over-confident that the job was going to be his (remember, Donahoe had even waited until after the Super Bowl to interview him), and showed up with a "You sell ME on the job" kind of attitude that turned Donahoe off. When Lewis didn't get the job, he and his agent (who went so far as to accuse the team of being racist) started a smear campaign against the Bills and the city of Buffalo in general. His winless record against the Bills (0-5, I believe) was his just deserves.

The Bills have so many needs at so many positions that I wouldn't cry regardless of what position they drafted there (except for RB) -- provided, of course, that they take the best player available. As for a corner? I do see bigger needs elsewhere, but McGee is damaged goods, Florence was a liability all year and McKelvin is not the sharpest tool in the shed. Can you really say that they couldn't use a real shut-down corner?

No, I was listening to him on Mike and Mike this morning. The conversation there was just about the general notions of having a bye heading into the playoffs, home field advantage, resting starters, etc. As for the hangover stuff, it wouldn't surprise me considering that Kelly always had the reputation as a party animal who showed up on Sundays hurting from the night before. I've never held that against him in terms of the SB losses, since it was normal behavior for him during the regular season and the rest of the playoffs when he played well enough to get the team to the Super Bowl in the first place. The bottom line is that those Bills teams were built to compete against Marino's Dolphins, where they were asked to shut down the passing game on defense and score quickly on offense. Alas, they were not a good match for those power-run offenses and dominating defenses in the NFC East. And, as luck would have it, all four Super Bowls had to be against NFC East teams. I always thought that the Bills would have matched up much better against the 49ers.

This is a perfect example of how worthless these rankings are. For example, Brady only passed for 140 yards against the Bills on Sunday, which (by this silly passing yards allowed stat) would indicate a good game for the pass defense. Anyone think that the pass defense had a good game?

Not whining about the refs, given that the Bills ARE handily being outplayed by the Pats*. However, the Bills are one of the least penalized teams in the NFL and are getting flagged on ticky tack calls. Meanwhile, the Pats are getting away with obvious fouls -- and key ones like PI, face mask, and unnecessary roughness.

Great. More locker room propaganda for Brady and the Patriots heading into Sunday's game. I can just see it now, BB to Brady: "Hey, Tom. Suggs says that Fitz is a better QB than you..."

Agreed. Remember, Chan was even able to make a decent QB out of Kordell Stewart for awhile there. I honestly believe that he was confident enough in his own abilities as a tactician to believe that he could "fix" Trent. He took that as a challenge -- but after two weeks realized that Trent was a hopeless cause. Miami was a winning team (7-6) when the Bills played them. In fact, they were coming off a victory against the Jets.

Heading into the season, I predicted that they would go 5-11. The outcome (in terms of W/L) for each game has been pretty close to what I predicted. I had them winning the opener against Miami but losing on the road to the Dolphins and beating the Jags at home, but I have, otherwise, been correct with my preseason predictions. Now, at the midway point, when they were 0-8, I was fearful that if they didn't somehow get the monkey off their backs that that they had a chance to go winless. However, remember that their last three losses in that 0-8 stretch were all games against division leaders that were decided by 3 points -- and 2 of those games had gone into overtime. So you could tell that they were getting better, and I had a good feeling that they would eventually win a game. Also, when I made those preseason predictions, I presumed that a 5-11 record would be representative of what kind of team they would be; I did not expect them to be nearly as competitive against strong teams. Even if they lose their last two, I believe that this year's 4-12 squad is superior to the team that went 6-10 last season.

I read Ralph's comment completely differently. I think he was doing the following: 1. Applauding the Buffalo players for their intensity and consistent effort this season. Essentially, he was saying that this collection of "diamonds in the rough" has managed to turn heads largely because so many of the more heralded players over the years haven't worked out. I think the image of the Bills as a rag-tag bunch of no-names is beginning to catch on around the league, and Ralph was echoing that with pride. 2. Applauding the coaching staff for doing more with less. 3. Re-emphasizing the importance of being patient and staying the course in difficult times, especially with young players. Also, I think the admission that the last 10 drafts have been bad was a stab at past regimes (Donahoe's, in particular) and perhaps even an admission that he allowed non-football guys (like himself, Marv, Jauron and Brandon) to have too much say in the post-Donahoe years.

We are on the same page here. The success rate for later-round and undrafted free agents as compared to the early-round draft picks for the past decade is astounding. I have always speculated that too many non-football folks in the front office had too much say in the first 2-3 rounds. The fact that Ralph called out the organization for its dismal drafts over the last 10 years, while Modrak still has a job (he could have been relieved of his duties after the draft last April if Nix/Ralph were unhappy with him) -- tells me that Ralph places the blame for those drafts somewhere other than at Modrak's feet. I actually trust the combination of Gailley/Nix/Modrak to get it right, and maybe Ralph will contribute by not meddling.

Yes, but the Giants were able to do that WITHOUT having to blitz because they could get pressure with their fantastic front four. Someone started a thread about drafting to beat the Patriots, and I agree with that philosophy. That is what Polian did back in the 80s when the Dolphins owned the Bills. His ambition was to build a team capable of stopping Marino and the Dolphins: an offense with enough firepower to keep up coupled with a pass defense predicated on applying a strong pass rush. I would have to say that Polian did a masterful job here. (Alas, those teams were NOT built to stop the power running teams from the NFC East -- but I digress.) The Bills' drafts for the past decade have been visionless: no direct correlation based on acquiring players necessary to win the division. If I were calling the shots, I would place a HEAVY emphasis on pass rushers in this year's draft, regardless of what "scheme" they fit.

Here is the thing. I would put Whitner in the class of player that Nix mentioned (he called these players "good"), when he talked about the Kelsay extension. A team needs to keep a corps of players like that so they are not constantly having to retool every year when there are other positions that are not close to being "good" that need to be filled. It also helps that Whitner WANTS to be here. The only problem is that I guarantee you that Whitner is asking for money comparable to what an elite player makes. While he may be serviceable, he certainly is no Ed Reed or Troy Polomalo -- and there is no way that he warrants that kind of compensation. If the Bills can re-sign him for $2-3 M per year, then that is fine by me. If not, let him see what he can get paid elsewhere.

I keep saying that -- unless somehow Luck is magically on the board when the Bills pick -- the Bills' decision about whether or not to take a QB in the draft in the first 4 or 5 rounds says more about their long term prognosis of Brohm and Brown than it says anything about Fitz.

Eli's stunt actually helped the Chargers as they were able to fleece the Giants for Philip Rivers, an additional 1st rounder, 2nd rounder and another mid round pick. If the Bills could do something like that, I wouldn't cry too much about missing out on Luck. Like others have said, I believe it is all moot anyway as the Bills will probably not be picking 1st overall.

It's funny, but I am looking at this QB situation from a completely different angle. I seriously doubt that Chan/Gailey would expect any rookie QB (even Luck) to step on the field and make a significant impact in 2011. Fitz is almost certainly going to be the starter next year. That means that the team will have to make a decision on whether they want to invest a high pick on a developmental QB. To me, that decision has more to do with what they think of Brohm than Fitz.

I think you are right, and this may be what Chan was hinting at with his vague comments after the Minnesota loss. I believe that Nix/Gailey will be leaning heavily on guys that are team leaders and are SMART (at least from a football IQ perspective).

I suspect that the fact of the matter is that Washington simply may not be any good. Given the multiple chances that so many n'er-do-wells have received in the NFL for things much more serious than Washington's grotesque indiscretion, I would have to think that SOME team would have taken a flier on him by now if he had as much talent as some around here seem to think he has.

1. I honestly do not know how much of the problem really is Modrak. Given that the picks in the later rounds and free agency tend to out-perform our first and second round picks, I have to believe that other voices are making the final call on those early picks and then deferring to Modrak and his team for the less recognized, later-round players. Still, the draft record under his regime has not been good, and it may just be time to turn the page. 2. A month ago, I was screaming that Edwards should be fired NOW. However, the defense has at least gotten better in recent weeks. Even on Sunday both the score and rushing yards allowed were a bit misleading. Maybe I am the only person in the world who watched the game and felt like the Bills did a decent job of holding Peterson (who is a bona fide stud) in check most of the game. Take away that long TD run he had in the 4th quarter, which came after a demoralizing turnover when the outcome had already been decided, and he only rushed for about 50 yards. The other 2 TDs were set up by 1st and goal-to-go from the 1 yard line: the first came courtesy of a pass interference penalty on Leodis and the second after the fumble on the Center-to-QB exchange. I will have to say that the defense has done a better job of applying pressure to the QB and forcing turnovers since the second half of the season. So maybe the players are starting to buy what Edwards is selling. While I am no longer in the "Fire Edwards NOW!" camp, it is still worth noting that he oversees one of the worst defenses in the league, even if it has shown marginal improvement of late. I guess I would just like to see how well the guys play in the final four games before making a final pronouncement on Edwards' future. After all, Fewell is showing in NY how much smarter he looks when he has a more talented roster to work with. 3. Free agency activity is unfortunately going to be based on what is going on with the labor talks. Since there is probably not going to be an agreement in place by March 1, we may have to be patient in these regards. Whaley is likely to follow the way he was taught in Pittsburgh, which is to make low key, not-so-costly free agent acquisitions. Still, if he could acquire a couple of seasoned linemen and a quality linebacker that would be an excellent start. 4. Disagree here. Fitz isn't perfect, but he is a legitimate NFL QB -- and we have several other positions currently being manned by guys who do not deserve to be on the final roster. Still a talent like Luck comes along so rarely that I believe you HAVE to draft him, if he is there. Otherwise, in Round 1 the Bills should draft the best OL, DL -- or even CB (yes, I said that) available. There will be quality options at LB in the 2nd-3rd round. 5. Agreed. Although, if Troupe and Carrington manage to become solid starters in the future, I would consider both to be good draft picks regardless of their plodding development in Year 1.

Letting Big Pat, who wanted to stay and was affordable, walk was possibly the biggest blunder of the Donahoe regime. As fine of a player as Winfield is, though, there really wasn't much the Bills could do. He wanted to become a free agent and sell his resources to the highest bidder, so he was unwilling to sign an extension with the Bills prior to free agency. Remember, he initially agreed to terms with the Jets -- and then reneged to sign what seemed like a ridiculous contract with the Vikings.

To be honest, I suspect that when Chan said he found something out yesterday and refused to say what it was, I bet it was in relation to the OL. I think it may have dawned on him how much Fitz's ability to quickly get rid of the ball has masked the line's deficiencies. Yesterday was an excellent example of that. The Vikings DL (they didn't even have to blitz) destroyed the OL -- and the line still only technically gave up one sack. So, even while Bell (in particular) didn't allow Allen to have multiple sacks, anyone who watched the game knows that Allen had his way with Bell from start to finish. Yes, the interior of the line was decimated. But it was the tackles that were getting beaten. Fixing the OL isn't an overnight project (as we all know), either. In a way, Fitz's performance yesterday (under the conditions that existed) actually ENHANCED the likelihood of him being the man for the foreseeable future. If the Bills do draft Luck (if he is available), rest assured that he won't see the field for a year or more. (Gotta protect that investment!) Wonder how many fans will be complaining about another "luxury pick" then.

Going back to the original post, that drop by Stevie was not the back-breaker. On the Vikings' next possession, Florence had the Pick 6.

2008 (twice when he was with the Jets): 0-2, but that had more to do with the Bills' nosedive than anything specifically related to Favre. 2006: Losman and the Bills beat Favre and the Packers, thanks largely to Favre throwing a bad goal line INT that was run most of the way back. 2002: Ugly cold weather loss at Lambeau. Drew was especially awful that day. The score was like 10-0. 1997: Late season loss when the Bills were already out of contention and the team was led by the one and only Alex Van Pelt. However, the Bills were still in it until the end. (Was that the game where Steve Tasker was ejected in his last game as a Bill?) 1994: Kelly and Reed set records against Favre and the Packers. At that time, Kelly was the seasoned veteran and Favre was an up-and-comer. By my calculations that is 2-4, which isn't good -- but Favre didn't necessarily have great success against the Bills in those games. It's not like we are talking about Brady-like mastery over us.