2003Contenders

That's pretty funny. The one thing I will say is that Johnson was the first Tampa Bay QB to ever win a game with a sub-40 degree game-time temperature. This came late in the 2002 season when the Bucs traveled to Chicago and Brad Johnson was injured. That victory ended this silly novelty about the Bucs, and they went on to beat the Eagles on the road in the NFC Championship game -- with a sub-40 degree temperature. Hmmmm.

I hear ya. And all of this "reach" business is based on how all of the draftniks have players "ranked". Look at the Patriots, for example. For years they have "reached" on players based on what the media says. However, they trust their own scouts. If this kid has a legitimate shot at being a quality OT for the next decade, I would have no problem at all with the Bills' drafting him. I would, however, hope that they have enough intel about what other teams may be doing to at least investigate the possibility of trading down (and picking up extra picks(s) in the process) to get him.

Or... it could be that the Chargers already had a pretty good roster in place and did not HAVE to rely on their rookies to make an immediate impact the way that the Bills do every year.

BTW, if the Bills DID trade down from #3 all the way to the 20s as you suggest, they would get A LOT more than an additional 2nd or 3rd rounder. Such a trade would require MULTIPLE first round picks plus additional picks in return.

Obviously we do not have a lot to go on with Brown, and it isn't comforting that the team initially decided to release him. However, from what I saw of him, he does have a very lively arm and a quick release. In terms of what is between his ears and how quickly he will adapt to the NFL, that is anyone's guess.

Let's also not forget the Lynch factor. The Bills wasted entirely too much time trying to showcase Lynch in the preseason and through the first few weeks of the regular season. I believe that Gailey will have a better idea of how to best utilize Spiller this year in a manner in which he and Fred Jackson can co-exist. (See: Reggie Bush)

It is difficult to pigeon hole what Buddy's/Chan's leanings may be in regards to the "types" of players that they like to go after in the draft based on a single year of observing them. However, here are some patterns that are worth noting: 1. They seem to prefer seniors to underclassmen. 2. They like kids coming out of the SEC (not a surprise given Buddy's background) or the Big 12. 3. They like "good" kids; players who have not gotten into trouble. 4. In the later rounds, the are willing to roll the dice on players who were highly productive at small schools. Based on this criteria, I would have to think that Miller would be a logical choice for them at #3.

There are lot of things you can blame on Ralph -- and maybe you can indirectly blame him for some of our draft day fiascoes, since he is the guy who has employed the likes of Donahoe, Modrak, etc. But I seriously doubt that he is the one responsible for whiffs on guys like Maybin and Mike Williams.

Tagliabu gets credit for the labor peace that went on during his tenure as Commissioner. However, the last deal he pushed through shortly before leaving back in 2006 was such a bad deal for owners that it placed us in the current situation in which we now reside. That is why it is very difficult to judge Goodell based on the current labor situation. I suspect that D. Smith had it in his mind to become a litigant REGARDLESS of what the owners offered, so I am not sure that any other Commissioner could have placed the current situation in any better light.

So what does everyone do when the Bills select Julio Jones at #3 -- with AJ Green on the board, no less?

I keep hearing that one of the "certainties" right now is that Denver will take Dareus if Carolina doesn't.

Supposedly the Cardinals REALLY want Gabbert and are prepared to do what is necessary to get him. How much do you think the Bills could extort from them to move down a measly 2 spots?

Reading between the lines, it sounds like Gailey doesn't believe that Maybin is ever going to be the premiere pass rusher the Bills were hoping for when they invested that #11 pick on him -- and that he will need to focus on working on all the other stuff if he wants to carve out a position for himself.

Agreed. This should alleviate all those Vince Young comparisons.

Meh. With millionaire players like Adrian Peterson bringing up divisive terms like "slavery", there is plenty of blame to go around for this mess.

Allow me to play devil's advocate for a moment, because I would much rather that the Bills take either DE/DT or LB with that first pick. If the Bills did draft Peterson, I know some folks would freak out given the fetish that Jauron seemed to have for drafting DBs early. But the infatuation with DBs dates back much further than that. Even during the Polian/Butler years the Bills seemed to like going after DBs in the first couple of rounds. DBs tend to be the most athletically gifted players on the field -- and finding good ones is hard to come by. That's why they cost a fortune in free agency and why teams like the Bills have a hard time keeping good ones around. We all remember Jabari, Nate and Antoine. But remember back to the kinds of contracts that Burris and Odom signed to leave. Thus, interest in drafting DBs early is going to always be perpetual. Now, let's take it a step further and look at the current roster. I am not sure how much McGee has left in the tank. Although I still have high hopes for McKelvin, he is far from a sure thing. Florence is a free agent as is Youboty, who has never been able to get (and stay) on the field anyway. Thus, there is definite need at the Corner position. Peterson is an elite player coming out of college. Nothing is a sure thing, but he appears to have all of the skills necessary to be an elite NFL cover corner. Thus, he is one of the safest picks in the draft, especially given that he is a quality return man to boot. And, lest someone points out that the pass defense is so much better than the run defense... Well, is it really? When teams needed to, they had no trouble passing the ball against the Bills. Part of the reason that the stats look skewed is that the run defense was so bad that opposing offenses really didn't even try to pass very much. I think improving the front 7 will help both the run defense as well as the pass defense, as the pass rush certainly needs to improve. However, we saw in the playoffs that Tom Brady was thwarted by the Jets, not because they managed to get pressure on him -- but because their lock-down corners blanketed his receivers and left him with nowhere to go with the ball. If Peterson really is the BPA, when the Bills select at #3, then I won't throw a fit if they take him. However, I would hope that they address the front 7 with the next couple of picks, if they do that. Given the depth at DT/DE this year, a good one should fall to 34.

I suspect that one of two things will happen -- whether the Bills draft a QB early or not. Either they pick up a veteran backup -- or they invest a late round pick on a polished but less toolsy player like McElroy. If they draft a Newton/Gabbert/Locker/Mallet then this 4th QB would be in competition with Levi Brown (who let's not forget, the Bills actually cut last year and only made it onto the roster after Trent was let go after Week 3) for a roster spot. If they don't draft a Newton/Gabbert/Locker/Mallet then such a QB would become a necessity.

Think about this for a minute. The run D last year wasn't pounded into submission -- and RBs didn't have great success running it up the gut. The run D took most of its lumps in pursuit and in allowing RBs to cut-back. That is more on the DEs and LBs in my mind. And that is why I tend to agree that we need more help at LB and DE (especially LB) than we do at DT.

I think we are on the same page here. Regardless of what they do in the draft, Fitz is going to be the man in 2011 (assuming there is no work stoppage) and probably 2012, too. Having a serviceable starter that you HOPE to improve upon affords the Bills the luxury of taking a gamble on one of these young QBs -- and giving him the time to develop a la Aaron Rogers. The only problem with that scenario is that the Bills have so many other needs that HAVE to be addressed (especially on defense) -- and do you want to pass on guys in the first two rounds who can be instant starters at other positions for a young QB who MAY be better than what we have now in a couple of years? The conventional wisdom is that if you believe strongly that the prospect will be a franchise QB, you DO make that pick. Me, personally -- I do not feel THAT strongly about any of these QBs this year. I understand the rare talents that Newton possesses, but there certainly are many questions as well. I don't know enough about Gabbert to comment -- and neither Mallet nor Locker (the other two potential franchise QBs) appear to be in the discussion at #3 overall. I guess we have to trust that Chan/Buddy and the scouts know what they are doing.

Actually, we should all hope that Newton has a great workout. That improves the chances of his going 1-2, and means one more player falls to the Bills at 3.

Agreed about the QBs in this year's draft. Unless they see a genuine upgrade over Fitzpatrick (and IMHO there are only maybe 3-4 such guys) in this year's draft, it would be foolish to waste an early pick on the position. The only caveat that I would add is that the Bills do need to address the QB situation somewhat. Since they have wisely appeared to put an end to the Brohm experiment, that leaves just Fitz and the developmental Levi Brown. What happens if Fitz goes down? That's why, in the last couple of rounds, I wouldn't mind them picking up a Frank Reich type (someone like McElroy), who is probably never going to be a starter but is polished and savvy enough to be a quality backup from day one.

As of now, he has the Bills taking Patrick Peterson.

2006: I REALLY wanted them to trade down with either the Broncos or Eagles, who were both angling to move up. Assuming that they stayed put, I wanted Ngata. When they traded up in the later part of the 1st round, I assumed that it was for OL help (Mangold or Justice); I thought McCargo was a REAL reach. I know we all cursed the name of Chris Mortenson that day because of his criticism of that draft, but his suggestion that there was panic and confusion in the Bills' War Room that day seems to be correct. 2007: I was hoping that either Peterson or Willis would fall. When that didn't happen, I thought they should either draft Leon Hall or D. Revis. 2008: I must confess that I was thrilled with the McKelvin pick at the time. 2009: I couldn't believe that Orakpo was still on the board at #11 -- and I couldn't believe that the Bills by-passed him in favor of Maybin. I was very happy with the other first round pick, Wood. 2010: I was OK with Spiller, believing the hype that he was the BPA. Time will tell.

I remember reading somewhere that, while scouts/coaches favor a score that is above average, they do not want a score that is TOO high -- not only for the reason(s) cited above but also because they fear that a player that is overly intelligent will tend to over-analyze a situation, rather than rely on instincts.

I think Trent's unraveling was a bit more complex than that with all of the following factors weighing in: 1. The 4-0 start in 2008 was a bit of a mirage -- as all 4 opponents were horrible. And, the team required late game comebacks to win 2 of those games. Still, Trent was being cited as an early-season MVP candidate. 2. Horrible coaching. That starts with Jauron, who for whatever reason didn't seem interested in preparing Edwards to face 3-4 defensive alignments, which was the exclusive formation for the rest of the division. 3 different coordinators in 3 years (each progressively less qualified than the previous one) didn't help. 3. Certainly, the severe concussion played a factor in Trent becoming somewhat gutless in the pocket. 4. Shortly after the concussion, Josh Reed also went down for several games. That left Lee Evans as the only WR option -- with the Bills desperately trying to get a disinterested James Hardy involved. I will never forget that infamous Monday night game against Cleveland, where Trent threw 2 or 3 early interceptions, stemming from him and his receivers not being on the same page. He lost confidence in them (and himself) and started checking down to the RBs on almost every pass play. I remember Jaws at the time commenting how Trent was playing scared and that the Bills could not afford to continue to hide their QB by relying on the RBs so much. I believe that when Gailey took over, he saw the talent and smarts that Trent possessed -- and felt that he could correct the lost mojo that was further beaten down in 2009. However, after 2 games against live competition, Gailey realized that Trent's problems simply were not fixable.